NBA Finals Preview & Conference Finals Recap

We saw two series in each of the Conference Final matchups that resulted in not only the same number of games played, but shared many other similarities in terms of the complexity of the games.  Each series featured a team of veterans vs. the up-and-comers, with experience prevailing in both instances.  Oddly enough, both the Bulls and Thunder suffered colossal meltdowns (Bulls in Game 5, Thunder in Game 4) that led to their demise.  And although each series lasted only five games, the teams were very evenly matched.  A few lucky breaks for the Bulls or Thunder, here or there, could have extended the series to 6 or 7 games.   

Dallas, after convincingly dethroning the two-time defending champs, continued their stretch of impressive play and exhibited what was, for them, unprecedented mental toughness.  The tables have turned, as they are no longer the team that can’t hold leads down the stretch; they are poised on both ends of the court, and a super determined Dirk Nowitzki has taken his game to a whole new level.  If you saw a game where Dallas blew a 15 point lead in the last 5 minutes, you wouldn’t be surprised.  But this time, such a collapse was their opponent’s doing. 

At times, Westbrook lost his cool - and his poise - at
crucial moments during the Conference Finals

On OKC’s end, you can’t help but wonder about Russell Westbrook.  A year removed from his impressive performance against the Lakers last year, he was heavily criticized during this playoff run for his questionable decision-making and often for taking shots away from Durant (their true go-to guy) in crucial moments.  It also appeared that James Harden and Eric Maynor were the team’s better playmakers; recall that the Thunder’s lone win was in Game 2, when Scott Brooks chose to bench Westbrook for the entire 4th quarter.  What’s more troubling was his apparent immaturity he displayed, especially in Game 5.  At one point, he shoved Jason Terry into the 1st row – which probably would have warranted a suspension had there been a Game 6.  After the final buzzer, Westbrook pulled a LeBron by storming off the court without shaking the Mavs’ hands.  If he wants to become a great player, he’s going to have to grow up.  The good news is, he’s only 22 years old. 

This year's MVP struggled  mightily against
 the much-improved D of LeBron. 

After their Game 1 loss to Chicago, Miami was once again a subject of over-scrutiny and found themselves on the “What’s Wrong?” headlines on every sports show.  Derrick Rose showed everyone why he was this year’s landslide MVP winner, dropping 28 on the Heat and was the main catalyst behind their 10-0 run in the 3rd quarter of Game 1.  Also, Taj Gibson had a couple poster-worthy highlight-reel dunks, images that really captured the Bulls’ statement game. But since then, it’s been all Miami.  D-Rose’s youth finally caught up to him, making crucial turnovers seemingly in every game since his standout Game 1 performance.  His decisions down the stretch of Games 2 through 5 were shaky at best.  Credit LeBron, who clamped down and dared Rose to take stepback jump shots over him.  

You can’t put all the blame on Rose, though.  Carlos Boozer, after snapping out of his funk for two games, went back to his old self and resumed his ongoing playoff struggles.  Boozer’s inability to live up to his contract is a disturbing trend that’s become a reality in recent years.  Tom Thibodeau has his work cut out for him this offseason in terms of what he’s going to do with his $85 million man.  The guy who backs him up, Taj Gibson, has clearly been more effective – particularly on the defensive end – during their entire playoff run.   Is Thibodeau going to bench Boozer next year in favor of Gibson?  He should, but I wonder if Bulls GM Gar Forman (who signed Boozer to this big contract last offseason) would be happy with that decision. 

In the end, the Thunder and Bulls have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.  They both lived up to their higher expectations coming into the regular season.  Nobody anticipated that the Bulls would get the league’s best record, ahead of the likes of Miami, Boston, and the Lakers.  Consider that they had a first year coach, a third-year superstar player, and glaring weaknesses at the 2-guard position - and they've had a heck of a season.  As for the Thunder, they have nothing to worry about; their FOUR best players (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden) are only 22 years old or younger.  Rick Carlisle even said that they were much better than the Lakers, whom they faced (and swept) in the previous round.   

This wasn't their year, but the Bulls and Thunder may very well
face one another in a future Finals matchup

Ultimately, Chicago and OKC are both are going to learn from this experience and, without a doubt, contend for the title for years to come.  Youth is the only thing that kept them from getting past Dallas and Miami.  In addition to their aforementioned issues, both teams will need to make minor tweaks over the offseason, but should be well off with their main core for the foreseeable future.  

And now for the fun part:  predicting this year’s NBA champs.  This is a real toss-up, as both teams have been impossible for their opponents to put away late in games.  Dallas has only lost 3 games total so far in the playoffs, and Miami’s only lost 4.  The headline everyone likes to label these Finals with is:  “Can Dirk avenge the Mavs’ 2006 infamous collapse against Wade’s Heat?”

Wade annihilated Dirk's Mavs in 2006;
can Dirk turn the tables this time around?

Everyone likes to compare this year’s Finals to that of 2006, even though only 4 players from that series remain (Wade, Haslem, Dirk, Terry).  For the sake of comparison, let’s look at Wade and Dirk.  Wade was an absolute monster in that Finals series; according to ESPN’s John Hollinger, Wade had the greatest performance in NBA Finals history.  As the undisputed Finals MVP of that series in just his 3rd season in the NBA, Wade swayed some (including me) that he – not Kobe or LeBron – was the league’s best player.  And back then, nobody could really argue that.

Just as a painful reminder, Dallas was winning by double digits midway through the 4th quarter of Game 3 after securing a 2-0 lead – only to blow that lead and the following 4 games.  In fact, Miami’s Game 6 win in Dallas was their FIRST win in Dallas during the entire season – and it just so happened to be their title-clinching win.  We’ve seen Miami overcome these type of odds this year also – as was often pointed out, Miami was swept by Chicago and lost 3 of 4 games to Boston.  This goes to show that stats don’t mean ANYTHING  - especially when you’re talking about teams that are playing at the highest of levels in a 7-game series.  So, you better believe that Miami’s 0-2 regular season record against Dallas this year doesn’t mean anything, either (especially since both games were played in 2010).  Remember this, though:  when Miami won 21 of 22 games in a remarkable stretch of great basketball in December and early January, Dallas was that one team that beat Miami – on their home floor, to boot. 

Let’s go back to Dirk for a second:  many blamed him for Dallas’s total meltdown in that 2006 series.  Consequently, many questioned his toughness and doubted his ability to lead a team to a title.  While most of the criticism was unfair, he didn’t help his cause in that last Game 6 – he went 0-5 from the field down the stretch of that game, failing to capitalize on several wide-open jump shots.  Wade, conversely, devastated the Mavs and picked them apart in every way – on passes, drives to the rim, and from the foul line. 

Even against a top-notch defender in Serge Ibaka,
Dirk has been lights out from the field

Heading into these playoffs, however, the opposite trend is taking place:  Dirk has been scorching hot, while Wade has been relatively cold.  He’s dealing with a few nagging injuries (seemingly a common theme for him, unfortunately), resulting in limited effectiveness.  While he did come through in moments that mattered against Chicago (especially Game 4 where he hosted a block party by himself in the game’s last 2 minutes), he really hasn’t had a memorable D-Wade-type game yet.  This either means the injuries are bothering him more than he’s letting on, or he’s due for an explosion during these Finals.  As for Nowitzki, his performance to this point has been impeccable.  Yet you still wonder whether he’ll come through now that he’s back in the Finals against the very team that derailed him and his teammates. 

So what can we expect from the two superstars this time around?  My guess is that the individual trends thus far this postseason will continue for them (Wade cold, Dirk hot), regardless of the outcome of the series.  If Wade is not fully healthy, he may continue his struggles against Dallas’s solid zone defense.   Fortunately for Wade, he has LeBron on his side.  He is now getting more help than he could imagine from his superstar teammate, who has suddenly shown a killer instinct in Miami’s last two playoff series.  He is truly on a mission to silence all the hatred that’s come his way since ‘The Decision’, and he’s 4 games away from really sticking it to all the haters. 

Honestly, I’m rooting for Dirk and the Mavs.  Miami has had a great season considering all the “drama” they’ve been through all year (I’m putting “drama” in quotes because most of it was overhyped and over-scrutinized by the media), and the three-headed monster of Wade, LeBron, and Bosh will only get better for years to come.  They’ll have plenty of chances to win a title.  The Mavs’ window, however, is quite smaller than that of Miami’s.  Jason Kidd is reaching the twilight of his career at 38 years old, and Dirk’s toward the end of his prime at 32.  Dallas will be competitive in the West with this core for the next 2-3 years, but this may be their best chance to win the title.  After being heavily criticized for coming up short throughout his career, I think it would be very fitting for Dirk to finally win a title – especially against the same team that he faded against 5 years ago. 

While I’m rooting for Dallas, I really can’t see Miami losing.  With LeBron and D-Wade, a game is never out of reach for this team.  The two of them seem to turn it up a notch down the stretch of games, making it extremely difficult for opponents to put them away.  

Bosh and Miami's bigs have the ability to contain Dirk
- at least more so than Dallas' previous opponents

Also, note that Chris Bosh is going to be a huge factor in this series, and might give Dirk more problems than anybody else that he’s faced.   Bosh’s one-on-one defense is vastly underrated, and he is better suited against perimeter-oriented big men (like himself) than against true post-up players.  The dynamic of that matchup will be much different than the Dirk-Serge Ibaka matchup.  Ibaka is a great defender, but is more of a weak side helper/shot blocker than a one-on-one defender, which is why Dirk was able to pick him apart through the course of the Thunder series.  Bosh will not allow Dirk to beat him off the dribble; Dirk will need to utilize his post-up game a lot more than he has in any of their previous series.  On the offensive end, Dirk may have a hard time keeping up with Bosh, who has a sizeable quickness advantage on Nowitzki and thereby could put Dirk in foul trouble early in games.  With Miami’s Big 3 and superior defense figuring out a way to contain Dallas’s biggest weapons, they have a distinct advantage against the Mavs. 

So it’s the classic heart vs. head argument:  my head’s telling me Miami will win this, but my heart’s telling me Dallas will prove everyone wrong once again and Dirk will finally win a title that’s eluded him for so many years.  If that happens, who wouldn’t want to see commissioner David Stern pretend to be happy having to give Mark Cuban a championship trophy? 

My prediction, all things considered? Miami in 6. 

Changing of the Guards

So in case you haven’t noticed, I haven’t been writing a whole lot lately; I’ve been gone for 2 weeks on travel for work and unfortunately have not had any free time for blogging lately.  In that time, much has gone on that has happened relatively quickly, so we need to take a quick look at what happened and what we can expect through the remainder of the playoffs.

During my 2-week trip, I visited the Arlington National Cemetery in Washington DC.  One of the coolest things I got to see there is the changing of the guards at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.  At this location, a permanent guard from the 3rd US Infantry Regiment is mounted at all times - and there is a short ceremony of switching guards periodically depending on the time of day.  Beyond this literal meaning, the "changing of the guards" expression has become a metaphor for transferring duties of one person on to another.  In the case of the NBA, the metaphor refers to a former powerhouse team making way for another up-and-comer to take the reigns.  

To sum it up, this year’s playoffs have signified a changing of the guards.  Boston, LA, and San Antonio – three of the NBA’s dominant teams – are all out.  We have to get used to a conference final without Duncan, Kobe, and Pierce/KG/Allen.  The new up-and-comers – OKC, Chicago, and Miami – are in a position to take the reigns as the NBA’s next generation of elite teams.   

Let’s digest what happened to the Lakers and Celtics, and take a look at what we can expect in the Conference Finals. 

Dallas def LA Lakers, 4-0

Despite my previous notion that Dallas is tailor-made to beat LA, I went against my gut feeling and picked against them because, well, they’re Dallas.  But the Mavs shocked the world and completely picked apart the 2-time defending champs, exploiting LA’s greatest weaknesses:  pick-and-roll defense and inferior bench players. 

The Lakers never had to deal with Dirk in any 7-game
series before getting swept in this one

The scapegoat of this series has been Pau Gasol.  Let’s be clear, though:  the Dirk-led Mavs and Kobe-led Lakers have NEVER met in the playoffs.  Ever consider that the Mavs are just better?  I mean, Kobe and Andrew Bynum both had a pretty good series.  Beyond Gasol’s underwhelming performance, I think this was just a matter of the Lakers getting outplayed by Dallas more than anything else.  As I mentioned before, Dirk has had decent success against Pau in their head-to-head matchups over the years, dating back to Pau’s days in Memphis.  During all their successful playoff runs, the Lakers never had to face a guy like Dirk – someone who is devastating in any pick-and-roll situation due to his impeccable shooting and improving driving ability.  On top of Dirk’s great play, he had plenty of help from the Mavs bench.  Jason Terry absolutely torched LA, tying an NBA Playoff record with 9 three-pointers. 

This series also shows how worn out the Lakers are after 3 straight trips to the Finals.  After getting lit up by Chris Paul, Derek Fisher had a relatively favorable matchup against an older Jason Kidd.  But he has shown that it’s not just the younger and quicker point guards that give him fits; he just flat out has lost his ability to stay in front of anyone.  So, when JJ Barea came in the game, Fisher had no chance whatsoever.  Hell, Phil Jackson had to settle for subbing Shannon Brown in for Fisher to guard him.  While Kobe did OK scoring-wise in the series, most of his points came from contested jump shots (if memory serves, he only made ONE layup during the entire series). 

In the complete blowout that occurred in Game 4, the Lakers completely surrendered in what was probably Phil Jackson’s last game with the Lakers.  I don’t think he’s done coaching altogether; Mavs coach Rick Carlisle put it best, saying "My belief is that he’ll retire for a while," Carlisle said, "but I don’t know how long you can go to Montana and meditate and smoke peyote or whatever he does there. I don’t know. He’s going to get bored. And I mean that in an endearing way.”  You’ve seen coaching legends like Larry Brown and Lennie Wilkens come back from retirement again and again out of boredom.  Coaching is an extremely demanding job with high expectations, and he is among only 4 coaches with guaranteed long-term job security (the other 3 being Greg Popovich, Doc Rivers, and Jerry Sloan before he suddenly quit).  Generally, it’s tough for any successful and driven person to go from such a demanding and stimulating job to doing nothing.  Then again, what’s his motivation?  He needs a ring for his other big toe?

This series has the potential to go
the distance, and get testy along the way

Back to Dallas:  if they have indeed shed their label as a mentally fragile squad, they have the talent to finally avenge their 2006 collapse.  Charles Barkley seems to think that OKC is a better matchup for Dallas than Memphis would have been, but I beg to differ:  Dallas will have major, major problems guarding the two-headed monster of Durant and Westbrook.  Against LA, they’ve already proven that they could contain guys that can dominate the paint.  If they fared well against Bynum and Gasol, they would have been fine against Zach Randolph and the other Gasol.  But I don’t think they will have an answer for Westbrook and Durant, who will give Dallas fits. 

On the other hand, Dallas has some matchup advantages as well.  Serge Ibaka will have a harder time being matched up against Dirk than he did vs. Z-Bo and Kenyon Martin in their previous series.  He won’t be able to help his teammates in the paint, either, on penetrating perimeter players like Kidd and Barea.  OKC is not as deep as Dallas, either.  As long as Chandler continues to be an effective defensive anchor, I think Dallas will edge OKC in 7.   

Miami def Boston, 4-1

What many thought would be a clash of the titans-type matchup turned out to be a shorter series than expected.  Miami controlled the series from the get-go, with Miami’s Big 3 dominating the Celtics in every aspect.  They also got some unexpected help from James Jones and Joel Anthony; when the two of them were in the lineup, Boston seemed to struggle the most. The 5-man lineup of Wade-James-Jones-Bosh-Anthony has played a total of 3 minutes prior to Game 5, but I get the feeling we’ll see that more against Chicago (if that lineup proves effective). 

Considering how short this series ended up being, you can't help but wonder where Boston would be had they not traded Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder.  When the starting five of Rondo-Allen-Pierce-KG-Perk were all healthy, they NEVER lost a playoff series.  Danny Ainge will have some explaining to do, though it's not his fault that he got virtually nothing from the O'Neals.  Shaq and Jermaine have shown flashes, but not surprisingly, could never stay healthy enough to make steady contributions.  Still, this is by no means the demise of the Celtics.  With the core still intact and Doc committing to a 5-year extension, they should be able to re-tool their roster and be contenders again next year.  

There was some controversy with the way Miami celebrated after their win.  Personally, I didn’t have a problem with it for two reasons:  1) it’s really, really hard to put away a team like Boston the way they did, and 2) LeBron was clutch when it mattered, for once.  Let’s look at the latter reason.  Try to look at this from LeBron’s perspective:  here’s a guy who has been much-maligned all season long by everyone (myself included) for the way he left Cleveland, and his apparent inability to make plays down the stretch.  In this game, he put away a tough Boston team by scoring the game’s last 10 points.  When he was screaming to the Miami crowd and crying at the end of the game, that was his way to finally let out his relief considering all the hatred that came his way.

Was LeBron's emotional reaction to his breakthrough win a little over-the-top?
Maybe.  But it was understandable.

While I didn’t think there was anything wrong with the celebration, I do think it caused them to have an emotional letdown in their Game 1 loss against Chicago.  Chicago is by far Miami’s toughest matchup, as they are the NBA’s best defensive team and are best equipped to handle the two-man wrecking crew of Wade and Bron.  For the record, I still think Miami will win in six games.  Once they realize they are not even close to their goal of winning a title yet, they will re-focus on the task at hand.  Still, this will be an electrifying series that may very well go the distance. 

As the Conference Finals just began on Sunday, the changing-of-the-guards process happened quicker than we expected.  Now, we can just sit back and enjoy the next generation of great NBA teams going at it.

Second Round Predictions

As anticipated, no “expert” in the world predicted the 1^st Round correctly.  Since the Spurs and Magic were unable to turn on the switch after stumbling to the finish of the regular season, they proceeded to destroy my original predictions (though my Finals prediction of Lakers Heat is still intact).   

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series:  Memphis won 3-1

Prediction:  Thunder in 6

Obviously, Memphis has proven they are a force to be reckoned with.  This will be a long and grueling series, as both teams are young and athletic at every position with veteran experience.  The biggest difference in this series, however, is matchups with regard to Memphis facing OKC rather than San Antonio, particularly at the point guard position.  Russell Westbrook should have his way against Mike Conley with his relatively consistent jump shooting and slashing ability.  Tony Parker is more so a slasher and is extremely streaky from the perimeter.  When he’s cold,the inside presence of the Grizzlies (Randolph, Gasol, Darrell Arthur) were able to contain Parker’s ability to attack the paint.  He made several careless plays down the stretch of Friday’s Game 6 to boot. 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series:  Lakers won 2-1

Prediction: Lakers in 5

While I previously wrote that the Mavs are talented enough to beat LA, their lack of killer instinct shown most recently against the Portland Trailblazers in Game 4 has verified their mental fragility.  Needless to say, that will easily derail their chances against LA. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series:  Bulls won 2-1

Prediction: Bulls in 5

After Jameer Nelson infamously told Derrick Rose “See you in the second round!” after their last regular season meeting (horrible, horrible decision by Jameer, by the way), Derrick will think Jameer’s a liar when he sees the surprisingly resilient Hawks squad on the other side of the court instead of the Magic. 

You have to give credit to the Hawks for getting here, regardless how poorly the Magic played.  At the end of the day, though, Orlando would still have been a better suited to beat the Bulls than the Hawks are.  I can’t see Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson putting up big numbers consistently, but I do see Derrick Rose continuing his remarkable playoff run.  With Kirk Hinrich’s injury, Rose will have nobody in his way to stop him.  If Hinrich were healthy, I would give the Hawks a much better chance to make this series interesting. 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series:  Celtics won 3-1

Prediction: Heat in 7

This is easily the best series of the 2^nd round.  As Chris Bosh said, everyone knew this series was going to happen, and the Heat would have to go through Boston in order to win a championship.  Is Miami ready to dethrone the reigning Eastern Conference champs?  I think they will be.  My only asterisk to this prediction is that Spoelstra still may not have learned to NOT let LeBron have the ball late in close games.