We saw two series in each of the Conference Final matchups that resulted in not only the same number of games played, but shared many other similarities in terms of the complexity of the games. Each series featured a team of veterans vs. the up-and-comers, with experience prevailing in both instances. Oddly enough, both the Bulls and Thunder suffered colossal meltdowns (Bulls in Game 5, Thunder in Game 4) that led to their demise. And although each series lasted only five games, the teams were very evenly matched. A few lucky breaks for the Bulls or Thunder, here or there, could have extended the series to 6 or 7 games.
Dallas, after convincingly dethroning the two-time defending champs, continued their stretch of impressive play and exhibited what was, for them, unprecedented mental toughness. The tables have turned, as they are no longer the team that can’t hold leads down the stretch; they are poised on both ends of the court, and a super determined Dirk Nowitzki has taken his game to a whole new level. If you saw a game where Dallas blew a 15 point lead in the last 5 minutes, you wouldn’t be surprised. But this time, such a collapse was their opponent’s doing.
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| At times, Westbrook lost his cool - and his poise - at crucial moments during the Conference Finals |
On OKC’s end, you can’t help but wonder about Russell Westbrook. A year removed from his impressive performance against the Lakers last year, he was heavily criticized during this playoff run for his questionable decision-making and often for taking shots away from Durant (their true go-to guy) in crucial moments. It also appeared that James Harden and Eric Maynor were the team’s better playmakers; recall that the Thunder’s lone win was in Game 2, when Scott Brooks chose to bench Westbrook for the entire 4th quarter. What’s more troubling was his apparent immaturity he displayed, especially in Game 5. At one point, he shoved Jason Terry into the 1st row – which probably would have warranted a suspension had there been a Game 6. After the final buzzer, Westbrook pulled a LeBron by storming off the court without shaking the Mavs’ hands. If he wants to become a great player, he’s going to have to grow up. The good news is, he’s only 22 years old.
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| This year's MVP struggled mightily against the much-improved D of LeBron. |
After their Game 1 loss to Chicago, Miami was once again a subject of over-scrutiny and found themselves on the “What’s Wrong?” headlines on every sports show. Derrick Rose showed everyone why he was this year’s landslide MVP winner, dropping 28 on the Heat and was the main catalyst behind their 10-0 run in the 3rd quarter of Game 1. Also, Taj Gibson had a couple poster-worthy highlight-reel dunks, images that really captured the Bulls’ statement game. But since then, it’s been all Miami. D-Rose’s youth finally caught up to him, making crucial turnovers seemingly in every game since his standout Game 1 performance. His decisions down the stretch of Games 2 through 5 were shaky at best. Credit LeBron, who clamped down and dared Rose to take stepback jump shots over him.
You can’t put all the blame on Rose, though. Carlos Boozer, after snapping out of his funk for two games, went back to his old self and resumed his ongoing playoff struggles. Boozer’s inability to live up to his contract is a disturbing trend that’s become a reality in recent years. Tom Thibodeau has his work cut out for him this offseason in terms of what he’s going to do with his $85 million man. The guy who backs him up, Taj Gibson, has clearly been more effective – particularly on the defensive end – during their entire playoff run. Is Thibodeau going to bench Boozer next year in favor of Gibson? He should, but I wonder if Bulls GM Gar Forman (who signed Boozer to this big contract last offseason) would be happy with that decision.
In the end, the Thunder and Bulls have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of. They both lived up to their higher expectations coming into the regular season. Nobody anticipated that the Bulls would get the league’s best record, ahead of the likes of Miami, Boston, and the Lakers. Consider that they had a first year coach, a third-year superstar player, and glaring weaknesses at the 2-guard position - and they've had a heck of a season. As for the Thunder, they have nothing to worry about; their FOUR best players (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden) are only 22 years old or younger. Rick Carlisle even said that they were much better than the Lakers, whom they faced (and swept) in the previous round.
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| This wasn't their year, but the Bulls and Thunder may very well face one another in a future Finals matchup |
Ultimately, Chicago and OKC are both are going to learn from this experience and, without a doubt, contend for the title for years to come. Youth is the only thing that kept them from getting past Dallas and Miami. In addition to their aforementioned issues, both teams will need to make minor tweaks over the offseason, but should be well off with their main core for the foreseeable future.
And now for the fun part: predicting this year’s NBA champs. This is a real toss-up, as both teams have been impossible for their opponents to put away late in games. Dallas has only lost 3 games total so far in the playoffs, and Miami’s only lost 4. The headline everyone likes to label these Finals with is: “Can Dirk avenge the Mavs’ 2006 infamous collapse against Wade’s Heat?”
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| Wade annihilated Dirk's Mavs in 2006; can Dirk turn the tables this time around? |
Everyone likes to compare this year’s Finals to that of 2006, even though only 4 players from that series remain (Wade, Haslem, Dirk, Terry). For the sake of comparison, let’s look at Wade and Dirk. Wade was an absolute monster in that Finals series; according to ESPN’s John Hollinger, Wade had the greatest performance in NBA Finals history. As the undisputed Finals MVP of that series in just his 3rd season in the NBA, Wade swayed some (including me) that he – not Kobe or LeBron – was the league’s best player. And back then, nobody could really argue that.
Just as a painful reminder, Dallas was winning by double digits midway through the 4th quarter of Game 3 after securing a 2-0 lead – only to blow that lead and the following 4 games. In fact, Miami’s Game 6 win in Dallas was their FIRST win in Dallas during the entire season – and it just so happened to be their title-clinching win. We’ve seen Miami overcome these type of odds this year also – as was often pointed out, Miami was swept by Chicago and lost 3 of 4 games to Boston. This goes to show that stats don’t mean ANYTHING - especially when you’re talking about teams that are playing at the highest of levels in a 7-game series. So, you better believe that Miami’s 0-2 regular season record against Dallas this year doesn’t mean anything, either (especially since both games were played in 2010). Remember this, though: when Miami won 21 of 22 games in a remarkable stretch of great basketball in December and early January, Dallas was that one team that beat Miami – on their home floor, to boot.
Let’s go back to Dirk for a second: many blamed him for Dallas’s total meltdown in that 2006 series. Consequently, many questioned his toughness and doubted his ability to lead a team to a title. While most of the criticism was unfair, he didn’t help his cause in that last Game 6 – he went 0-5 from the field down the stretch of that game, failing to capitalize on several wide-open jump shots. Wade, conversely, devastated the Mavs and picked them apart in every way – on passes, drives to the rim, and from the foul line.
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| Even against a top-notch defender in Serge Ibaka, Dirk has been lights out from the field |
Heading into these playoffs, however, the opposite trend is taking place: Dirk has been scorching hot, while Wade has been relatively cold. He’s dealing with a few nagging injuries (seemingly a common theme for him, unfortunately), resulting in limited effectiveness. While he did come through in moments that mattered against Chicago (especially Game 4 where he hosted a block party by himself in the game’s last 2 minutes), he really hasn’t had a memorable D-Wade-type game yet. This either means the injuries are bothering him more than he’s letting on, or he’s due for an explosion during these Finals. As for Nowitzki, his performance to this point has been impeccable. Yet you still wonder whether he’ll come through now that he’s back in the Finals against the very team that derailed him and his teammates.
So what can we expect from the two superstars this time around? My guess is that the individual trends thus far this postseason will continue for them (Wade cold, Dirk hot), regardless of the outcome of the series. If Wade is not fully healthy, he may continue his struggles against Dallas’s solid zone defense. Fortunately for Wade, he has LeBron on his side. He is now getting more help than he could imagine from his superstar teammate, who has suddenly shown a killer instinct in Miami’s last two playoff series. He is truly on a mission to silence all the hatred that’s come his way since ‘The Decision’, and he’s 4 games away from really sticking it to all the haters.
Honestly, I’m rooting for Dirk and the Mavs. Miami has had a great season considering all the “drama” they’ve been through all year (I’m putting “drama” in quotes because most of it was overhyped and over-scrutinized by the media), and the three-headed monster of Wade, LeBron, and Bosh will only get better for years to come. They’ll have plenty of chances to win a title. The Mavs’ window, however, is quite smaller than that of Miami’s. Jason Kidd is reaching the twilight of his career at 38 years old, and Dirk’s toward the end of his prime at 32. Dallas will be competitive in the West with this core for the next 2-3 years, but this may be their best chance to win the title. After being heavily criticized for coming up short throughout his career, I think it would be very fitting for Dirk to finally win a title – especially against the same team that he faded against 5 years ago.
While I’m rooting for Dallas, I really can’t see Miami losing. With LeBron and D-Wade, a game is never out of reach for this team. The two of them seem to turn it up a notch down the stretch of games, making it extremely difficult for opponents to put them away.
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| Bosh and Miami's bigs have the ability to contain Dirk - at least more so than Dallas' previous opponents |
Also, note that Chris Bosh is going to be a huge factor in this series, and might give Dirk more problems than anybody else that he’s faced. Bosh’s one-on-one defense is vastly underrated, and he is better suited against perimeter-oriented big men (like himself) than against true post-up players. The dynamic of that matchup will be much different than the Dirk-Serge Ibaka matchup. Ibaka is a great defender, but is more of a weak side helper/shot blocker than a one-on-one defender, which is why Dirk was able to pick him apart through the course of the Thunder series. Bosh will not allow Dirk to beat him off the dribble; Dirk will need to utilize his post-up game a lot more than he has in any of their previous series. On the offensive end, Dirk may have a hard time keeping up with Bosh, who has a sizeable quickness advantage on Nowitzki and thereby could put Dirk in foul trouble early in games. With Miami’s Big 3 and superior defense figuring out a way to contain Dallas’s biggest weapons, they have a distinct advantage against the Mavs.
So it’s the classic heart vs. head argument: my head’s telling me Miami will win this, but my heart’s telling me Dallas will prove everyone wrong once again and Dirk will finally win a title that’s eluded him for so many years. If that happens, who wouldn’t want to see commissioner David Stern pretend to be happy having to give Mark Cuban a championship trophy?
My prediction, all things considered? Miami in 6.
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