My Thoughts on Melo Trade

All-Star weekend, as far as I’m concerned, lived up to expectations.  When that happens, it’s hard to forget the weekend.  Thanks to the long-anticipated trade of Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks – where he wanted to be all along – All-Star weekend has been forgotten and all eyes are on the new-look Knicks as well as Thursday’s trade deadline.  After months of negotiating, the trade finally happened.  It’s hard to envy the front office of NBA teams who have deal with this crap.  I can’t imagine the long hours they all put in to make everything work, both numbers-wise and team chemistry wise.  Luckily, trades talks rarely last this long, and are never as long as it takes Brett Favre to make decisions. 

First, before breaking down the trade – I gotta point this out:  I guess Knicks fans forgot all about Melo’s sucker punch on then-NY PG Mardy Collins 5 years ago.  Shouldn’t NY fans be more skeptical about picking up a hit-and-run type guy, after having guys like Anthony Mason, Larry Johnson, Charles Oakley, and many of the tough guys in NBA history?  Maybe Melo’s gotten tougher over the years to fit that bill. 

On to the trade – let’s start with Denver’s side:  in losing both Melo and Chauncey Billups, they gained a whole lot more than what they would have gotten had they lost Melo for nothing as a free agent this summer.   That, in itself, is a victory.  If you look strictly at Points in vs. Points out in the trade, Denver actually got more (53.4 vs 48.3 PPG) in return for their trade.  Obviously, that’s a glass half-full approach on Denver’s end (not to mention one of the many examples of using stats to sell a positive outlook).  Nevertheless, with a projected starting lineup of Felton, J.R. Smith, Chandler (I think Gallo will be traded), K-Mart, and Nene, the Nuggets are still 7^th or 8^th seed-playoff quality team.  Losing a superstar is never good, but they really did the best that they could, given the circumstances.  In other words, they’re much better off than Cleveland and Toronto were after losing LeBron and Chris Bosh.

 Will they keep this lineup together?  We’ll see by Thursday’s deadline.  There’s lots of reports out there, involving shopping Nene, that may essentially blow up the team.  So, there is no point in analyzing their outlook for the rest of the year until after Thursday.

So, let’s talk about the new-look Knicks.  Some argue that the Knicks gave up way too much in the deal, considering they theoretically could have risked waiting until the summer to sign Melo.  But according to sources, Knicks GM Donnie Walsh became increasingly convinced that Melo became increasingly concerned about his financial security with the looming salary cap cut-backs as part of the upcoming new Collective Bargaining Agreement.  That’s a valid concern, and New York decided to give in and make a move for Melo right now.  Plus, I trust Walsh’s judgement on this a whole lot more than I would’ve trusted former awful GMs Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas, who outright destroyed the franchise for a decade.

On the positive side, let’s be clear on this:   this was a good move by the Knicks and great for the NBA from a marketing standpoint (for obvious reasons). In terms of basketball, this move needed to be made.  The Knicks had a relatively easy 1^st half of the regular season, yet are only two games above .500 into to the All-Star break.  The trade talks were clearly getting to the team, as the players who overachieved to this point (e.g. Chandler, Felton) were slowly-but-surely slipping.  With Melo, New York will have new life and the Garden will see a buzz it hasn’t seen in a long, long time.  You HAVE to be happy if you’re a Knicks fan. 

Can Amare and Melo co-exist?  This remains to be seen.

Landing former Finals MVP Chauncey Billups should not be overlooked, either.  Chauncey has always been a great leader, and will gladly welcome playing in the D’Antoni system after playing for more controlling coaches like Larry Brown in Detroit and George Karl in Denver.  He is clearly an upgrade, in the short term, over Ray Felton.  I just wonder if he’ll be happy in NY, as he wanted to retire in Denver.  The Nuggets front office admitted that one of the hold-ups to the trade was trying to avoid including Chauncey in the deal.  Head coach George Karl even said that he was more sad about Chauncey leaving than anything.  Although he is 34, his game has aged in a positive manner and is still a very effective point guard. 

Amare struggles guarding good bigs like Gasol

As exciting as this trade is, you need to play devil’s advocate.  This trade was good, but are the Knicks going to be that good?  We all know that both Melo and Amare Stoudemire are two of the best scorers in the league (Amare at #2 in NBA with 26.1 PPG, Melo at #6 with 25.2 PPG), and arguably the most gifted scorers at their respective positions.  But the question of whether they fit together as teammates drives the biggest skepticism thereof.  This is a legitimate concern, as these two guys aren’t exactly known for their play without the ball, particularly on defense.  As I’ve pointed out before, Amare is just plain awful at guarding elite 4s and 5s.  For a guy with his caliber of talent, he is an average rebounder at best.  He’s picked up his efforts in terms of help defense, as he ranks 3^rd in the NBA in Blocked Shots.  But in terms of one-on-one defense and boxing out, he should be better than he is.

Even on offense, there are valid concerns.  Can two guys that score 25+ PPG co-exist?  They both need the ball in their hands to be effective, and a lot of pressure will be on D’Antoni and Billups to facilitate the offense and preserve team chemistry.  Remember that the Nuggets were not an elite team with the Allen Iverson-Anthony combo, despite the two of them being top 5 in the league in scoring a few years back.   They ran into a lot of problems in the playoffs as well, as there was a struggle between the two in terms of deciding who should have the ball in closing moments.  I can’t anticipate that this situation will be much better playing with Amare.  And, as dynamic of a duo as they are, they are still only the 4^th best duo in the league in my opinion, behind the Lebron/Wade, Durant/Westbrook, and Kobe/Gasol combos. 

Is there reason for hope?  Of course.  Will the Knicks be title contenders this year?  Of course not; just look at how long it took Miami to start gelling as a team with their three-headed monster.  They probably won’t make much ground in the playoff race, and will probably extend a 1^st round playoff series (either vs. Chicago or Orlando) to 6 games at best.  In the short term, things might not pan out that quickly.  But the bottom line is that the NBA is a star’s game; you acquire the star and figure out the remaining pieces from there.  Donnie Walsh and company will spend endless hours trying to add pieces to the puzzle over the next several seasons. 

I still don’t think the Knicks will threaten to overtake Miami, Chicago, or even Orlando (if D12 stays) in the next couple years – especially if the new Collective Bargaining Agreement drastically decreases team cap space as expected (and thus essentially ruling out the possibility of picking up either Deron Williams or Chris Paul in 2012). In summary, this trade makes them good – but not great.  But if you’re a Knicks fan, you should be ecstatic that this team will be relevant again.  In the Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas eras, the Knicks were doomed to several years of futility.