Quick take on the Playoff’s First Round So Far

I’ll say this much:  I’ve never seen a first round this good.  Never have I seen most, if not all, of the lower seeds play so well.  I predicted some landslide first round matchups, and that’s been far from the case in every series so far.  Even in the lopsided series in terms of games won, the lower seeded teams have admirably battled against their heavily favored opponents.  We did manage to see one sweep so far (Boston over NY), but that series was very competitive until the Knicks could no longer sustain injuries to their key guys (Billups, Stoudemire).  Most experts deemed the top four seeds from each conference superior to the remaining field, but one wouldn’t have been able to tell that by watching the games so far.  In other words, nobody (including me) predicted an upset.  Now, it turns out of all eight first round matchups, HALF could end up in upsets (with Memphis, New Orleans, Portland, and Atlanta potentially winning).  I’m not saying that’s likely, but few thought those four teams would be in a position to pull off an upset. 

I’m going to go over my thoughts on each series so far, starting with the most intriguing (and surprising) ones.  I’ll assign each series into one of three categories:  1) Most surprising (likely upsets), 2) Somewhat surprising, and 3) About what we expected.

Category 1:  MOST SURPRISING/UPSETS BREWING

Memphis/San Antonio, Atlanta/Orlando

Memphis 3, San Antonio 1

Randolph has helped Memphis take control
of this series

This is, without a doubt, the most shocking series so far. Not only is Memphis up 3-1, but they absolutely annihilated the Spurs in Game 4 to take a commanding series lead.  Manu Ginobili may still not be 100% healthy, and this may be the beginning of the end for this particular Spurs core.  I, for one, thought Tim Duncan would turn back the clock and pick apart the Grizzlies.  Instead, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol – who, by the way, is clearly playing better than his brother Pau currently – are having their way in the paint.  If San Antonio goes on to become the second first-seeded team to lose in the 1^st round (in a best-of-7 format), you better believe team GM R.C. Buford will do a complete overhaul of this team.  Here’s the question:  who can you trade?   The San Antonio community would be furious if they trade Duncan, who is a Spurs icon and still has a couple more years of decent basketball left in the tank, so I don’t think they would give away THE Spurs legend.  Tony Parker has trade value, but he's still young and the team could be built around him (since good point guards are hard to come by).  My bold offseason prediction: Ginobili’s gone after this year. 

On to Memphis:  the most unsung hero of the series so far is Tony Allen.  Here is a guy who won a title with the Celtics three years ago, and now he is providing his veteran championship experience to guide this young Memphis team.  He is truly leading by example and exhibiting the effort needed to pull off an upset of this magnitude – gathering nearly every “50/50” loose ball, making timely baskets, and just showing a lot of poise in general.  Even when he’s on the bench, he’s constantly cheering on his teammates regardless of the score of the games. 

In the playoffs, young teams have a tendency to feel the pressure against veteran teams like San Antonio.  But they have truly shocked the world and taken complete control of the series, and have already proven to the world that they are not a true 8^th seed.  I could see the Spurs winning at home in Game 5 and potentially make a comeback.  However, only 8 teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit, but a veteran team like the Spurs can do it.  Given how badly Memphis has outplayed the Spurs, I think this next series is the more likely to see such a comeback..

Atlanta 3, Orlando 1

Howard's played well, but he's getting
virtually no help from his teammates

This turn of events can very well derail my playoff bracket, as I picked Orlando to edge Chicago in Round 2.  There’s a couple things I overlooked:  for one, they acquired HUGE upgrade over Mike Bibby at the trade deadline with Kirk Hinrich, whose defensive abilities are vastly underrated; he’s one of the big reasons why both Jameer Nelson and Gilbert Arenas have been wildly inconsistent. 

Atlanta’s strategy of single coverage on Dwight Howard has proven to be very effective.  This strategy itself shows how much better of a head coach Larry Drew is than Mike Woodson, who was fired after the Magic absolutely destroyed the Hawks by a combined 100+ points in a 4-game sweep.  In any case, Drew has thrown every one of his bigs at Dwight in a one-on-one battle, with Jason Collins being the most effective Howard defender.  On offense, Jamal Crawford and Al Horford have fully exploited the Magic’s awful pick-and-roll defense so far. 

Here’s why I don’t think it’s over:  for one, Hedo Turkoglu and his teammates can’t possibly play this poorly forever.  Also, despite the total no-show from everyone but Dwight Howard, every game has been relatively close so far.  Despite shooting an atrocious 2-23 from the three-point line, Orlando somehow still had a chance to win (even without Jason Richardson, who was suspended for his role in a scuffle with Hawks backup C Zaza Pachulia.  Interestingly enough, Joe Johnson has been as mediocre as he historically has against Orlando in the playoffs – but sixth man Jamal Crawford has been on fire during this series – leading the team in scoring in 3 out of the 4 games so far.  The fact that Atlanta can’t play much better than they have been, combined with the chance that the Magic are due for a somewhat decent game from anyone not named Dwight, leads me to believe they can extend this series.  I will be attending Game 5 tomorrow night in Orlando, where I expect the Magic to turn things around and win.  From there, it’s just a matter of pulling off one road win in Atlanta before having a chance to edge the Hawks in Game 7.  I don’t think they are as outmatched as the Spurs are with Memphis. 

More likely than not, however, Atlanta should keep this up and oust the Magic in one of the next two games.  After years of difficulty vs. the Howard-led Magic, it appears that Larry Drew and the Hawks have finally concocted a good strategy to defeat them.  If Crawford stays hot and Turkoglu continues to struggle, the Hawks should pull off an upset.

Category 2:  MILDLY UNEXPECTED

Boston/NY, LA/New Orleans, OKC/Denver

Boston 4, New York 0

Anthony and the Knicks fell apart in Games 3 and 4

I predicted that the Celtics would have a relatively easy time with the Knicks.  What I didn’t expect was that the Celtics would be quite fortunate to win the first two games of the series, which both came down to the wire.  But after the first two fiercely competitive games in which Stoudemire and Billups suffered injuries, the Knicks basically just packed it in during Games 3 and 4.  A tremendous outburst from Carmelo Anthony (42 pts, 17 rebs) kept the Knicks within striking distance in Game 2, but he was unable to sustain his level of play during the games at MSG.  Having said that, it was really about Boston playing better after struggling in the first two games.  Rajon Rondo looks like he’s back to his early-season form, and Pierce and Allen have finally regained their touch from the perimeter. 

Those who are Knicks fans shouldn’t be too bummed about this.  For one, it’s nice to finally play in games that matter – and I’m sure most Knicks fans are thankful for that.  If the team can continue to build around Stoudemire and Anthony, there is hope for them.  However, they still need to address the defensive liability of those two.  I also have my doubts as to whether Mike D’Antoni’s system can go as far as winning a title.  But the team has definitely taken a turn for the better, and should be relevant again for the next few years.  You gotta give huge props to GM Donnie Walsh for turning this around after Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas did their best to destroy the franchise.  Before Walsh took over, I thought this team was doomed for decades of futility.

With the way the Celtics closed out the series, I can’t wait for the Boston-Miami 2^nd Round matchup; that will be by far the most intriguing series in the next round.  

Los Angeles 2, New Orleans 2

 The only reason why I didn’t put this in Category 1 is that I think this Laker team is coasting in this series.  I don’t mean to take anything away from the Hornets, who have been brilliant – especially Chris Paul.  After guys like Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams have emerged as the NBA’s best point guards this season, Paul kind of got overshadowed.  After completely torching the Lakers in two games so far, including a dominant triple-double performance in Game 4, he has immediately put himself back in the running as the league’s best floor general.

Nobody on LA has been able to contain CP3 this series

Obviously, Chris Paul is the biggest reason for the Hornets’ victories against the defending champs.  But I have to give credit to at least one of his teammates – Carl Landry.  Many Hornets fans criticized the midseason trade of Marcus Thornton to Sacramento in exchange for Carl Landry, given Thornton’s frequent scoring outbursts as a member of the Kings thereafter.  But in this series, Landry has fully demonstrated his value facing the league’s best frontcourt tandem of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.  What he lacks in size when matched up with them, he makes up for with pure defensive effort.  He has filled the void for the injured David West splendidly, and he should be getting more credit for the Hornets relative success (and Gasol’s struggles) thus far. 

As for the Lakers, their effort has been erratic.  Pau Gasol has been inconsistent, perhaps only partly due to Landry’s defense.  With Kobe ailing with a sprained ankle (an injury I’m sure he will play through), the Hornets are two more superhuman CP3 performances away from pulling off a stunning upset.  Sixth man of the Year winner Lamar Odom had an awful Game 4, along with the rest of LA’s bench.  Still, I think the Lakers will wake up and dominate Game 5 at home, perhaps with a better sense of urgency to close out this series.  I expect Phil Jackson to come up with ways to somewhat contain CP3 (or at least his teammates), and to ready his team to face the winner of Dallas and Portland.

Oklahoma City 3, Denver 1

While most did expect the Thunder to eventually figure out this scrappy Denver team and advance, nobody anticipated such a lopsided outcome.  It even took a career playoff high 41 points from Kevin Durant to edge Denver in Game 1.  Since then, however, it’s been basically all OKC.  Denver managed to avoid a sweep by winning Game 4 at home, but it appears that they’re on the verge of a summer vacation. 

My only theory for the series going by quicker than expected is that Denver’s lack of star power has finally caught up to them.  Their solid play since the Carmelo Anthony trade has been well-documented, but the playoffs are all about having stars that can get the job done in the heat of a playoff series.  With so much attention on Westbrook and Durant, opportunities arise for Serge Ibaka (who had a monster Game 3 performance – 22 pts/16 rebs) and the rest of the team.  Since Denver doesn’t have any such players that command double teams, it puts a lot of pressure on George Karl and the Nuggets to create scoring opportunities.  Without a true go-to scorer, the Nuggets will always have trouble closing games – especially against a team like OKC with two budding superstars. 

  

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets appear to be outmatched by the Thunder's talented team

With the Spurs fading, the Thunder appear to be a lock to go to the Western Conference Finals.  However, note that they lost 3 of 4 games against Memphis in the regular season.  I will reassess that matchup if Memphis goes on to beat the Spurs, but just note that by no means are the Thunder guaranteed to roll over the Grizzlies. 

Category 3:  JUST AS EXPECTED

Chicago/Indiana, Miami/Philadelphia, Dallas/Portland

Chicago 3, Indiana 1

D-Rose has been stellar as expected, but the Pacers
haven't rolled over by any means

As expected, Derrick Rose is having his way with the Pacers – averaging .  What we didn’t expect is how resilient of a team Indiana is.  Much like Denver, they have a deep and talented roster despite no true superstar.  Danny Granger is their best player, but no superstar (remember that he got benched in favor of the likes of Rudy Gay and Andre Iguodala during the World Championships last summer).  But Granger, Darren Collison, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, and Tyler Hansbrough are all holding their own against Chicago, minus allowing Rose to dominate the series.  If not for the furious rally in Game 1 and Rose’s crafty game-winner in Game 3, we could be looking at a potential 6 or 7 game series.  Guess the East is not nearly as weak at the bottom as everyone thought.

What’s particularly disturbing for the Bulls is the relatively poor play of Carlos Boozer.  Here’s a guy who has struggled against the elite power forwards of the NBA (e.g. Duncan, Gasol), and in this series he’s having trouble keeping up with Pacers F Tyler Hansbrough.  In Game 1, Hansbrough just had a field day against Boozer – going for 22 points on a barrage of jump shots.  Boozer’s a total defensive liability, which is why I thought even Orlando’s frontcourt would give him problems.  If things go the way they have been, he will be going up against Al Horford – another guy who can make perimeter jump shots and also beat other bigs off the dribble.  I would expect him to struggle then, as well, if Hansbrough is giving him problems.  Nevertheless, Chicago moves on and can probably exhale soon knowing they won’t go up against Dwight Howard. 

Miami 3, Philadelphia 1

Had Miami not inexplicably reverted back to going to LeBron James as their closer, this would have been an easy sweep.  I’m not sure if head coach Erik Spoelstra is trying to give LeBron some confidence by entrusting him with the ball during crunch time, but it’s safe to say that he, for whatever reason, never comes through in those situations.  When it comes to FG% of potential game-winning or game-tying baskets, Miami is dead last in the league.  Allow me to be even more redundant than I have been about this very subject:  LeBron HAS to be held accountable for Miami to hold such a miserable stat like that. We KNOW D-Wade is their best clutch player, so they shouldn’t divert from having him be the closer.

Miami's Big 3 are all having their way vs. Philly

Although Philadelphia has played well, they are clearly inferior in terms of talent.  Doug Collins, a Coach of the Year candidate, has turned this Sixer team around and turned them into a playoff team.  More importantly, last year’s 2^nd overall pick, Evan Turner, has finally been showing signs that he can play.  That, more than anything, has to be a relief for Sixers fans regardless of what happens in this series.  There’s about a 0.1% chance that they can upset Miami on Wednesday, but things are looking up for this squad. 

Dallas 3, Portland 2

This could be one of the very few chances Brandon Roy
will have left to be playing at this level

A very entertaining series, which was widely expected to be as such.  Of course, Dallas's Game 4 collapse reminded everyone of their repeated practice of showing 0 killer instinct when it comes to closing out opponents.  I was originally thinking that this particular team would not show those same qualities as the previous disappointing Mavs teams, but it appears that I’m wrong.  They may still close out this series, but NOBODY is scared of them.  Ask anybody who’s won a championship – they would verify this:  in the playoffs, you need to have a certain swagger or intimidation factor if you want to win.  The Celtics have that.  The Lakers have that.  The Heat have it.  Dallas?  Nobody was or is afraid of them.  Portland has further exposed their mental fragility, which will hurt them in the next series against LA. 

For Portland, it was awesome to see Brandon Roy have a great game.  Fresh off his complaints about not getting much playing time in the first three games, he responded with a fantastic performance and was the main driver behind Portland’s 23-point comeback win.  However, these kind of performances probably won’t be too consistent Without any MCLs in either knee, he will struggle with injuries throughout the rest of his career, unfortunately.  But if he’s able to play at a high level in spurts, that’s as much as the Blazers could hope for.  Against Dallas, they have a chance to make one last push and potentially take the next two games to win the series.  The Mavs are clearly the more talented team at the moment, but they will always be vulnerable without a killer instinct against a resilient team like the Blazers.  For now, I’ll stick with my original pick of Dallas in 7.

NBA Playoff Predictions Part II: Western Conference First Round

Although I’m not calling any upsets in either conference, it doesn’t mean the first round won’t be worth watching.  The 1^st round usually serves as a good measuring stick for teams to get a feel for each other and, with 7-game series matchups, weeds out the pretenders.  I predicted that no Eastern 1^st round series will go past 5 games, but I assure you that won’t be the case in the much deeper Western Conference.

Anyway, let’s get on with it:

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS – FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Spurs win 4-2

This will be a much more competitive series than people may think.  If Rudy Gay was healthy, I would think this series would go the full 7 games.  But it will still go 6 because Memphis has become a very good and underrated team.  Even without Gay, they have athleticism at all positions on the court.  Acquiring Shane Battier was huge for their postseason run, and he was a big reason why they held off Houston in their bid for the 8^th seed.  Marc Gasol has improved noticeably and has displayed a wide array of skills in the low post – much like his brother – and will be a handful down low along with Zach Randolph.   

The Spurs are, once again, dealing with injuries as Manu Ginobili hyper extended his elbow during the regular season finale last night.  Still, they have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and a much improved (from last year) Richard Jefferson.  They play a different brand of ball than they did in years past, simply because their two stars (Duncan, Ginobili) are getting older and the offense hasn’t run through them as much.  Bottom line:  Popovich is an all-time great coach, Duncan is an all-time great player, and I can’t see them losing in the first round – not as a 7 seed (like they were last year), and especially not as a 1 seed.  Not this year, anyway.  How far can they go?  I still haven’t decided whether they can beat Oklahoma City; I have to see if they can stay healthy through this series.  You better believe that Duncan will step up during the playoffs, despite averaging career lows in several stat categories during the regular season.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Season Series:  Los Angeles, 4-0

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-0

This is, in all likelihood, going to be the most uncompetitive first round matchup in the West.  On any given night during the first round, if there’s too many 1^st round games on to nationally televise all of them, this will be the game that should get pushed to NBA TV while the others would be on ESPN or TNT.

Without David West, the Hornets has no low post options.  Okafor is an above average rebounder and low-post defender/shot blocker, but has a very limited offensive skill set (side note:  remember when people thought Orlando should have drafted him over Dwight in 2004?  Considering how much as people criticize Howard’s offense, imagine the criticism Okafor would have received had he been drafted 1^st overall).  It will be interesting to see whether Chris Paul, who has clearly lost some of his explosiveness through a few injuries, can still carry this team in the playoff atmosphere.  Is he motivated enough, or is he thinking about playing for MJ and the Bobcats? 

 Only a handful of teams can beat the Lakers, and the Hornets are far from being one of them.  The big question mark for the Lakers going forward, as usual, is Andrew Bynum’s health.  Either way, Bryant and Gasol are in for putting up monster numbers throughout the series – the Hornets have no answers for either of them.  The Lakers lost 5 straight prior to the end of the season, but they knew they would have the 1^st round of the playoffs to turn the switch back on.  If I were to bet on the one series that would be the most lopsided in terms of average margin of victories, this would be the matchup I would bet on.  Going forward, I don’t see why Chris Paul would be motivated at all to play for this team next year.  His situation next year and the subsequent drama will mirror that of Carmelo Anthony’s last year. 

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Mavs win 4-3

This is by far the most popular pick for an upset in this year’s playoffs.  LaMarcus Aldridge has emerged as a great 1^st option for the Blazers, and the main reason why they’ve been able to sustain the degraded health of former alpha dog Brandon Roy.  Add Gerald Wallace (aka ‘Crash’) to the mix at the trade deadline and you have your hands full playing the Blazers. 

The Mavs’ mental fragility has been well-documented, and Portland is a less-than-ideal first round opponent for them.  However, in the end, I think Dallas will find a way to edge this team out.  If Brandon Roy is unable to play for any stretch, the team might have trouble putting points on the board.  Dallas still has a well-balanced team on both ends of the floor, and Dirk and Terry have proven their ability to hit clutch shots.  Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion have evolved into great compliments to Nowitzki, and they should be able to make things difficult for Aldridge in the paint. 

Portland hasn’t won a playoff series since 2000, when they had an epic collapse against the Lakers after being up double digits in the 4^th quarter of Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals.  Paul Allen has done his best to clean up the team’s image and revamp this team into a contender.  But with their current injury curse, I still think something will go against them in the end.  Even against Dallas. 

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets

Season Series:  OKC, 3-1

Prediction:  Thunder win 4-2

Behind the Dallas-Portland matchup, this may be the most intriguing matchup in the playoffs.  Both teams made big shakeups around the trade deadline, and both have played very well since.  Nobody expected Denver to be in this position, which further proves that George Karl can coach players who don’t have big egos and readily buy into his system.  New acquisitions Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler have fit in seamlessly, creating a new era of better ball movement and teamwork than the previous squad with Melo being the go-to scorer. 

That being said, the Thunder have become an elite contender with Kendrick Perkins in the middle.  Since the trade, Serge Ibaka moved to the starting 4 position and has been extremely effective on both ends of the court.  Before the trade – with Jeff Green at the 4 and Krstic/Ibaka at the 5 – the Thunder were very vulnerable and thin at the front line.  While their scoring goes down a bit without Green, they become a much tougher team with Perkins at the 5 and Ibaka at the 4.  I haven’t even mentioned the two best players in this series – Durant and Westbrook.  As good as Denver has been lately, they will be overmatched by the two superstars in a 7-game series. 

Since I didn't pick any upsets, I'll roughly estimate the likelihood for any upsets happening.  Here's what I perceive to be the odds for upsets (by series), barring unforeseen injuries:

Indiana over Chicago – 0%

Philadelphia over Miami – 0%

New York over Boston – 20%

Atlanta over Orlando – 25%

Memphis over San Antonio – 20%

New Orleans over Los Angeles – 0%

Portland over Dallas – 45%

Denver over Oklahoma City – 35%

Feel free to berate me if any of my predictions are wrong.  In the meantime, let the playoffs begin! 

Reaction to all the trades at the 2011 Trade Deadline

As a widely-expected lockout looms next season, NBA teams were very active on the eve of this year’s trade deadline.  LeBron James and Chris Bosh’s departures from Cleveland and Toronto, respectively, have affected more than just the franchises they abandoned.  Their exits have instilled fear in every GM in the league that has a superstar player with a soon-to-be expiring contract.  Consequently, no team wants to end up like Cleveland or Toronto.  One further aftermath of the LBJ/Bosh departures is the fluid movement of big-name players that want to team up with fellow NBA juggernauts.  As a result, NBA teams are going to incredible lengths to make moves.  Seven trades happened at the deadline, while two blockbuster trades happened earlier this week.

Here's a list of this week’s trades for your convenience (thanks, Henry Abbott):

·         Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks.

·         Deron Williams to the Nets.

·         Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to Boston for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson.

·         Gerald Wallace to the Blazers for Joel Pryzbilla.

·         Kirk Hinrich to the Hawks for Mike Bibby.

·         Baron Davis to Cleveland for Mo Williams and Jamario Moon.

·         Aaron Brooks to the Suns for Goran Dragic.

·         Shane Battier to the Grizzlies for Hasheem Thabeet.

·         Carl Landry to the Hornets.

·         Troy Murphy to Golden State for Brandan Wright and Dan Gadzuric.

·         James Johnson to the Raptors.

·         Semih Erden and Luke Harangody to the Cavaliers for Boston’s 2^nd Round Pick.

With all due respect to Semih Erden and Luke Harangody, let’s go over the biggest trades:

New York Knicks get:  F Carmelo Anthony, G Chauncey Billups, F/C Shelden Williams, G Anthony Carter, F Renaldo Balkman, G/F Corey Brewer

Denver Nuggets get:  G/F Wilson Chandler, G Raymond Felton, F Danilo Gallinari, C Timofey Mozgov, Kosta Koufos, 2014 1^st Round Pick

Minnesota Timberwolves get:  F/C Anthony Randolph, C Eddy Curry

I already talked in length about this trade, particularly how it affects NY and Denver.  As for Minnesota, I don’t know what they’re doing besides making friends with teams looking to get rid of huge contracts.  I know they want to clear cap space for future free agents and trades, but let’s be real:  nobody wants to come to Minnesota.  Since KG left town, they were doomed for years of futility.  Hopefully they can get good draft picks in the coming years and become relevant again.  The only good team they put together was in 2003-04, when KG, Sam Cassell, and Latrell Sprewell formed the NBA’s highest scoring trio and gave the Western Conference a real scare in the 04 playoffs.  Then reality hit, and Sprewell turned down a $21 million contract because it was “beneath” him and he thought it wasn’t enough to feed his family.  I still can’t get over that.

New Jersey Nets get:  G Deron Williams

Utah Jazz get:  G Devin Harris, F Derrick Favors, 2 first round picks and Cash

D-Will apparently fell out of favor with the Jazz front office

Unlike the Melo-to-Knicks deal, this was really unexpected.  While NJ is glad to finally land an All-Star, this is one risky move for the Nets.  Russian billionaire owner Mikhail Prokhorov was clearly desperate to land a superstar after missing out on several big names (LBJ, Wade, Melo, etc.), essentially giving away promising future assets in the deal.  D-Will was noticeably saddened to suddenly be on a 17-40 team, and may very well be in trade talks by next year’s trade deadline.  I guess it was smart of New Jersey to see how things work out until then.  But if they end up keeping Deron through the 2011-12 only to see him leave the team, the Nets will be in an even bigger predicament before the team moves to Brooklyn.  There’s a lot of risk in giving up your future for a star player who might only be around for 1.5 years.

From Utah’s end, you have to wonder what made Utah give up on D-Will this early.  Even though it was clear he was not going to re-sign with the team, his contract isn’t up until next summer.  Clearly, he worn out his welcome with the Jazz front office, and was accused of being the main driver behind Jerry Sloan’s resignation.  The team was clearly struggling despite having a solid roster, and was on the verge of missing the playoffs. Now, they have some hope for the future with a very good point guard in Harris and promising young players.

OKC Thunder get:  C Kendrick Perkins, G Nate Robinson

Boston Celtics get:  F Jeff Green, F/C Nenad Krstic

I am completely baffled by this trade.  Either there’s some monetary reason for this, or something behind the scenes happened that prompted Danny Ainge to pull this off.  I just can’t figure out why he would do this at this stage of the season.  There's no possible basketball-related reason for this, which makes me think either Rasheed Wallace might come back and/or Ainge thinks Perk is leaving after this season (the latter being more likely).  With Perk, the Celtics had the size to go against any bigs they would encounter in the playoffs.  Don’t forget last year’s NBA Finals, where they arguably would have won the championship if he was healthy for Game 7 against the Lakers.  Now, suddenly they think they can win without him altogether?  I’m skeptical.   

If all their remaining bigs – Shaq, Jermaine O’Neal, Krstic – are healthy, they should still be favorites to win the title.  But look at those names I just listed – that is a BIG “IF.”  What made the Celtics so tough for teams like Orlando is their ability to guard dominant bigs one-on-one.  Now, if Shaq goes down and they were to play Orlando in the Eastern Conference Semis this year, who guards Dwight one-on-one?   They shut down last year’s lethal Magic team by NOT double-teaming Dwight, and thus staying home on the shooters.  No other team, other than the Lakers, could have contained their deadly outside shooting game.  Luckily for them, the Magic don’t look so hot these days.  With Atlanta and New York getting better this week (I’ll get into those trades later), Orlando may not even get home court advantage in the first round.  Still, they may face the Lakers in the Finals.  Without Perkins, I’m not so sure they can beat them - unless Shaq gets 10 years younger. 

Let’s get away from Perkins for a second:  the loss of Nate Robinson should not be overlooked, either.  Nate made the Celtics backcourt very tough to deal with.  Having him back up Rajon Rondo has been extremely effective; when teams backed off of Rondo and dared him to shoot, Doc Rivers brought Nate in the game to be a scorer.  Having both pass-first and shoot-first point guards gave Boston a variety of options as far as how they ran their offense, confusing most defensive units in the league.  Now who backs up Rondo?  I don’t like this trade at all for Boston.

Without Perk in the middle, guys like Dwight would have a much easier time against Boston

From OKC’s end, this is a great trade.  Jeff Green is a decent player, but is very inconsistent.  With great upside coming out of Georgetown, he and Kevin Durant were supposed to take the reins of the franchise.  But with Westbrook emerging as the clear 2^nd-fiddle behind KD (and perhaps the real leader of the team), Green became expendable.  Perk will give a great boost to the Thunder defense, which has slipped considerably since last season (their suffocating D really gave the Lakers fits before going out in a very close six-game series).  The team desperately needed a big, physical presence in the middle.  Now they got one, and they have no real gaping holes heading into the playoffs.

So – great trade for the Thunder, and a real head-scratcher for Boston.

Portland Trailblazers get:  G/F Gerald Wallace

Charlotte Bobcats get:  C Joel Pryzbilla, F Dante Cunningham, 2 1^st round picks

Wallace's versatility and athleticism will fit in nicely with Portland

What a great trade for Portland.  With Brandon Roy’s health issues, the team needed help to finish the season strong.  Currently a 7^th seed, the Blazers should be a tough out for whoever they match up with in the playoffs.  All-Star snub LaMarcus Aldridge has been a beast of late, and Wallace should compliment him nicely.  His talents have been a little forgotten in Charlotte, but he still is a tremendous high-flying athlete that plays terrific defense, and he rebounds well for his position.  Since he doesn’t need the ball to be effective, I see him fitting in fairly seamlessly in Nate McMillan’s schemes.  If Brandon Roy can somehow get healthy by the playoffs, their starting lineup will be comprised of this:  Andre Miller, Brandon Roy, Gerald Wallace, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby.  I don’t care who they play; that is a scary lineup for anybody to go against.  Of course, it’s the Blazers, and health is always an issue.  I won’t put money on them to get past the 1^st round, but if they’re healthy then I really wouldn’t be surprised if they upset anybody in the playoffs.

As for Charlotte – well, they are just another seller in today’s NBA market.  MJ’s tenure as owner isn’t going to draw any more positive reviews in the near future.  Much like the other small market teams of the league, they need to get lucky in the draft to make any noise.

Atlanta Hawks get:  G Kirk Hinrich, F/C Hilton Armstrong

Washington Wizards get:  G Mike Bibby, G Jordan Crawford, G/F Maurice Evans, 1^st Round Pick

This was clearly a reactionary move by the Hawks after seeing New York – a team on their heels in the playoff standings – land Carmelo Anthony.  Bibby has clearly lost a step, both offensively and defensively.  He’s also been somewhat of a no-show in Atlanta’s playoff appearances the past few seasons.  In Hinrich, they get a younger but very solid point guard, and an overall improvement at the position on both ends of the court.  He is a very underrated defensive player.  When he was in Chicago, then-coach Scott Skiles got fired in part because he consistently benched Derrick Rose in favor of Hinrich for defensive purposes.  In addition to Hinrich, Armstrong will provide some size and depth on the thin Hawks bench. 

I’m not really sure why the Wizards even got Hinrich in the first place last summer, knowing they were drafting Wall.  But Bibby gives them veteran experience – something they sorely lack and part of the reason why they are basically win-less on the road.  In trading Hinrich, they acquired a long-term prospect in Jordan Crawford and they have yet another 1^st round pick this year to boot.

Cleveland Cavaliers get: G Baron Davis, 1^st Round Pick

Los Angeles Clippers get:  G Mo Williams, F Jamario Moon

Poor Baron Davis.  First, he ditched a fairly good Golden State Warriors team to sign with his hometown Clippers in hopes to play with Elton Brand.  Then, Brand screws him over by signing with Philly.  After a few Clipper-like seasons at the bottom of the standings, Blake Griffin gets drafted.  Then, Griffin busts his kneecap and sits out an entire season.  This year, Davis struggled early on with injuries and was out of shape.  Owner Donald Sterling even expressed frustration with Baron not being in playing shape.  But after all that, Davis got healthy and the Clippers finally appeared to be coming together as a group.  Davis got to throw one jaw-dropping alley-oop pass to Griffin after another.  Griffin even had Davis assist him in his final dunk of this year’s Slam Dunk contest. 

Baron's days of posterizing opponents is sadly over

Now?  He got traded to the NBA’s worst team.   Tough break.  I think he’ll suddenly have a myriad of season-ending “injuries” and get bought out this summer.  It’s too bad, because Baron is one of my favorite players to watch when he’s engaged.  The last time we saw him at his best was when he spearheaded the demolition of the 2008 1^st seeded Dallas Mavericks in the greatest playoff upset in NBA history.   Only sometimes showing flashes of his unbelievable skill set, he may be one of the NBA’s biggest underachievers.  If injuries and motivation weren’t an issue, he would be a perennial All-NBA selection.  As depressing as it is to say this, it’s hard to see that version of Davis ever showing up again.

Cleveland made this trade primarily for the draft pick.  The Clippers, still hoping to make a playoff push, acquired Williams and Moon to help make it happen.  It’s hard to see how, mostly because Mo gets injured seemingly as often as Davis does.  But maybe playing on an exciting team (yes, playing with Blake Griffin automatically makes you a de facto exciting team, regardless of your team record) will rejuvenate him.  I can’t see it happening, though. 

Every year, you see at least one lose-lose trade for both teams involved.  This was it.

One reported trade – O.J. Mayo to the Pacers for Josh McRoberts and a 1^st round pick – fell through right at the deadline.  With Mayo already having had a rocky season so far, this does not bode well for Mayo or Memphis as a team.  Plus, with Shane Battier coming in, Mayo’s minutes are a lock to diminish significantly.   Things have already been interesting in Memphis after Mayo got suspended for 10 games violating the NBA’s drug policy and got in a fight with teammate Tony Allen.  Think he’ll be a distraction now that he’s staying put?  It remains to be seen whether they can squeeze into the playoffs with a disgruntled Mayo in the Grizzlies locker room. 

So who benefited the most from this year’s trade deadline? 

Winners:  Oklahoma City Thunder, Portland Trail Blazers

Losers:  Los Angeles Clippers, Cleveland Cavaliers

TBD:  Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, New Jersey Nets

My Thoughts on Melo Trade

All-Star weekend, as far as I’m concerned, lived up to expectations.  When that happens, it’s hard to forget the weekend.  Thanks to the long-anticipated trade of Carmelo Anthony to the New York Knicks – where he wanted to be all along – All-Star weekend has been forgotten and all eyes are on the new-look Knicks as well as Thursday’s trade deadline.  After months of negotiating, the trade finally happened.  It’s hard to envy the front office of NBA teams who have deal with this crap.  I can’t imagine the long hours they all put in to make everything work, both numbers-wise and team chemistry wise.  Luckily, trades talks rarely last this long, and are never as long as it takes Brett Favre to make decisions. 

First, before breaking down the trade – I gotta point this out:  I guess Knicks fans forgot all about Melo’s sucker punch on then-NY PG Mardy Collins 5 years ago.  Shouldn’t NY fans be more skeptical about picking up a hit-and-run type guy, after having guys like Anthony Mason, Larry Johnson, Charles Oakley, and many of the tough guys in NBA history?  Maybe Melo’s gotten tougher over the years to fit that bill. 

On to the trade – let’s start with Denver’s side:  in losing both Melo and Chauncey Billups, they gained a whole lot more than what they would have gotten had they lost Melo for nothing as a free agent this summer.   That, in itself, is a victory.  If you look strictly at Points in vs. Points out in the trade, Denver actually got more (53.4 vs 48.3 PPG) in return for their trade.  Obviously, that’s a glass half-full approach on Denver’s end (not to mention one of the many examples of using stats to sell a positive outlook).  Nevertheless, with a projected starting lineup of Felton, J.R. Smith, Chandler (I think Gallo will be traded), K-Mart, and Nene, the Nuggets are still 7^th or 8^th seed-playoff quality team.  Losing a superstar is never good, but they really did the best that they could, given the circumstances.  In other words, they’re much better off than Cleveland and Toronto were after losing LeBron and Chris Bosh.

 Will they keep this lineup together?  We’ll see by Thursday’s deadline.  There’s lots of reports out there, involving shopping Nene, that may essentially blow up the team.  So, there is no point in analyzing their outlook for the rest of the year until after Thursday.

So, let’s talk about the new-look Knicks.  Some argue that the Knicks gave up way too much in the deal, considering they theoretically could have risked waiting until the summer to sign Melo.  But according to sources, Knicks GM Donnie Walsh became increasingly convinced that Melo became increasingly concerned about his financial security with the looming salary cap cut-backs as part of the upcoming new Collective Bargaining Agreement.  That’s a valid concern, and New York decided to give in and make a move for Melo right now.  Plus, I trust Walsh’s judgement on this a whole lot more than I would’ve trusted former awful GMs Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas, who outright destroyed the franchise for a decade.

On the positive side, let’s be clear on this:   this was a good move by the Knicks and great for the NBA from a marketing standpoint (for obvious reasons). In terms of basketball, this move needed to be made.  The Knicks had a relatively easy 1^st half of the regular season, yet are only two games above .500 into to the All-Star break.  The trade talks were clearly getting to the team, as the players who overachieved to this point (e.g. Chandler, Felton) were slowly-but-surely slipping.  With Melo, New York will have new life and the Garden will see a buzz it hasn’t seen in a long, long time.  You HAVE to be happy if you’re a Knicks fan. 

Can Amare and Melo co-exist?  This remains to be seen.

Landing former Finals MVP Chauncey Billups should not be overlooked, either.  Chauncey has always been a great leader, and will gladly welcome playing in the D’Antoni system after playing for more controlling coaches like Larry Brown in Detroit and George Karl in Denver.  He is clearly an upgrade, in the short term, over Ray Felton.  I just wonder if he’ll be happy in NY, as he wanted to retire in Denver.  The Nuggets front office admitted that one of the hold-ups to the trade was trying to avoid including Chauncey in the deal.  Head coach George Karl even said that he was more sad about Chauncey leaving than anything.  Although he is 34, his game has aged in a positive manner and is still a very effective point guard. 

Amare struggles guarding good bigs like Gasol

As exciting as this trade is, you need to play devil’s advocate.  This trade was good, but are the Knicks going to be that good?  We all know that both Melo and Amare Stoudemire are two of the best scorers in the league (Amare at #2 in NBA with 26.1 PPG, Melo at #6 with 25.2 PPG), and arguably the most gifted scorers at their respective positions.  But the question of whether they fit together as teammates drives the biggest skepticism thereof.  This is a legitimate concern, as these two guys aren’t exactly known for their play without the ball, particularly on defense.  As I’ve pointed out before, Amare is just plain awful at guarding elite 4s and 5s.  For a guy with his caliber of talent, he is an average rebounder at best.  He’s picked up his efforts in terms of help defense, as he ranks 3^rd in the NBA in Blocked Shots.  But in terms of one-on-one defense and boxing out, he should be better than he is.

Even on offense, there are valid concerns.  Can two guys that score 25+ PPG co-exist?  They both need the ball in their hands to be effective, and a lot of pressure will be on D’Antoni and Billups to facilitate the offense and preserve team chemistry.  Remember that the Nuggets were not an elite team with the Allen Iverson-Anthony combo, despite the two of them being top 5 in the league in scoring a few years back.   They ran into a lot of problems in the playoffs as well, as there was a struggle between the two in terms of deciding who should have the ball in closing moments.  I can’t anticipate that this situation will be much better playing with Amare.  And, as dynamic of a duo as they are, they are still only the 4^th best duo in the league in my opinion, behind the Lebron/Wade, Durant/Westbrook, and Kobe/Gasol combos. 

Is there reason for hope?  Of course.  Will the Knicks be title contenders this year?  Of course not; just look at how long it took Miami to start gelling as a team with their three-headed monster.  They probably won’t make much ground in the playoff race, and will probably extend a 1^st round playoff series (either vs. Chicago or Orlando) to 6 games at best.  In the short term, things might not pan out that quickly.  But the bottom line is that the NBA is a star’s game; you acquire the star and figure out the remaining pieces from there.  Donnie Walsh and company will spend endless hours trying to add pieces to the puzzle over the next several seasons. 

I still don’t think the Knicks will threaten to overtake Miami, Chicago, or even Orlando (if D12 stays) in the next couple years – especially if the new Collective Bargaining Agreement drastically decreases team cap space as expected (and thus essentially ruling out the possibility of picking up either Deron Williams or Chris Paul in 2012). In summary, this trade makes them good – but not great.  But if you’re a Knicks fan, you should be ecstatic that this team will be relevant again.  In the Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas eras, the Knicks were doomed to several years of futility.