Although I’m not calling any upsets in either conference, it doesn’t mean the first round won’t be worth watching. The 1st round usually serves as a good measuring stick for teams to get a feel for each other and, with 7-game series matchups, weeds out the pretenders. I predicted that no Eastern 1st round series will go past 5 games, but I assure you that won’t be the case in the much deeper Western Conference.
Anyway, let’s get on with it:
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS – FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS
(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies
Season Series: Tied 2-2
Prediction: Spurs win 4-2
This will be a much more competitive series than people may think. If Rudy Gay was healthy, I would think this series would go the full 7 games. But it will still go 6 because Memphis has become a very good and underrated team. Even without Gay, they have athleticism at all positions on the court. Acquiring Shane Battier was huge for their postseason run, and he was a big reason why they held off Houston in their bid for the 8th seed. Marc Gasol has improved noticeably and has displayed a wide array of skills in the low post – much like his brother – and will be a handful down low along with Zach Randolph.
The Spurs are, once again, dealing with injuries as Manu Ginobili hyper extended his elbow during the regular season finale last night. Still, they have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and a much improved (from last year) Richard Jefferson. They play a different brand of ball than they did in years past, simply because their two stars (Duncan, Ginobili) are getting older and the offense hasn’t run through them as much. Bottom line: Popovich is an all-time great coach, Duncan is an all-time great player, and I can’t see them losing in the first round – not as a 7 seed (like they were last year), and especially not as a 1 seed. Not this year, anyway. How far can they go? I still haven’t decided whether they can beat Oklahoma City; I have to see if they can stay healthy through this series. You better believe that Duncan will step up during the playoffs, despite averaging career lows in several stat categories during the regular season.
(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets
Season Series: Los Angeles, 4-0
Prediction: Lakers win 4-0
This is, in all likelihood, going to be the most uncompetitive first round matchup in the West. On any given night during the first round, if there’s too many 1st round games on to nationally televise all of them, this will be the game that should get pushed to NBA TV while the others would be on ESPN or TNT.
Without David West, the Hornets has no low post options. Okafor is an above average rebounder and low-post defender/shot blocker, but has a very limited offensive skill set (side note: remember when people thought Orlando should have drafted him over Dwight in 2004? Considering how much as people criticize Howard’s offense, imagine the criticism Okafor would have received had he been drafted 1st overall). It will be interesting to see whether Chris Paul, who has clearly lost some of his explosiveness through a few injuries, can still carry this team in the playoff atmosphere. Is he motivated enough, or is he thinking about playing for MJ and the Bobcats?
Only a handful of teams can beat the Lakers, and the Hornets are far from being one of them. The big question mark for the Lakers going forward, as usual, is Andrew Bynum’s health. Either way, Bryant and Gasol are in for putting up monster numbers throughout the series – the Hornets have no answers for either of them. The Lakers lost 5 straight prior to the end of the season, but they knew they would have the 1st round of the playoffs to turn the switch back on. If I were to bet on the one series that would be the most lopsided in terms of average margin of victories, this would be the matchup I would bet on. Going forward, I don’t see why Chris Paul would be motivated at all to play for this team next year. His situation next year and the subsequent drama will mirror that of Carmelo Anthony’s last year.
(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers
Season Series: Tied 2-2
Prediction: Mavs win 4-3
This is by far the most popular pick for an upset in this year’s playoffs. LaMarcus Aldridge has emerged as a great 1st option for the Blazers, and the main reason why they’ve been able to sustain the degraded health of former alpha dog Brandon Roy. Add Gerald Wallace (aka ‘Crash’) to the mix at the trade deadline and you have your hands full playing the Blazers.
The Mavs’ mental fragility has been well-documented, and Portland is a less-than-ideal first round opponent for them. However, in the end, I think Dallas will find a way to edge this team out. If Brandon Roy is unable to play for any stretch, the team might have trouble putting points on the board. Dallas still has a well-balanced team on both ends of the floor, and Dirk and Terry have proven their ability to hit clutch shots. Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion have evolved into great compliments to Nowitzki, and they should be able to make things difficult for Aldridge in the paint.
Portland hasn’t won a playoff series since 2000, when they had an epic collapse against the Lakers after being up double digits in the 4th quarter of Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. Paul Allen has done his best to clean up the team’s image and revamp this team into a contender. But with their current injury curse, I still think something will go against them in the end. Even against Dallas.
(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets
Season Series: OKC, 3-1
Prediction: Thunder win 4-2
Behind the Dallas-Portland matchup, this may be the most intriguing matchup in the playoffs. Both teams made big shakeups around the trade deadline, and both have played very well since. Nobody expected Denver to be in this position, which further proves that George Karl can coach players who don’t have big egos and readily buy into his system. New acquisitions Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler have fit in seamlessly, creating a new era of better ball movement and teamwork than the previous squad with Melo being the go-to scorer.
That being said, the Thunder have become an elite contender with Kendrick Perkins in the middle. Since the trade, Serge Ibaka moved to the starting 4 position and has been extremely effective on both ends of the court. Before the trade – with Jeff Green at the 4 and Krstic/Ibaka at the 5 – the Thunder were very vulnerable and thin at the front line. While their scoring goes down a bit without Green, they become a much tougher team with Perkins at the 5 and Ibaka at the 4. I haven’t even mentioned the two best players in this series – Durant and Westbrook. As good as Denver has been lately, they will be overmatched by the two superstars in a 7-game series.
Since I didn't pick any upsets, I'll roughly estimate the likelihood for any upsets happening. Here's what I perceive to be the odds for upsets (by series), barring unforeseen injuries:
Indiana over Chicago – 0%
Philadelphia over Miami – 0%
New York over Boston – 20%
Atlanta over Orlando – 25%
Memphis over San Antonio – 20%
New Orleans over Los Angeles – 0%
Portland over Dallas – 45%
Denver over Oklahoma City – 35%
Feel free to berate me if any of my predictions are wrong. In the meantime, let the playoffs begin!
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