My 2012 NBA All-Star Reserves

The fan voting has ended and the 2012 starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced.  Now it’s time to ponder who should fill out the remaining rosters to play at the big game.  This is one of the weirder years to make such picks, with the shortened season being a huge factor.  With only a month of basketball to base our All-Star picks, players sitting out due to injury will have a huge disadvantage.  And without much of a training camp, most of the league has been sluggish over the first month of the season – resulting in a relatively poor quality of play overall so far.  So, a lot of my picks will have shaky logic behind them.  I realize this is hard to read, so click on the chart to pull up a better view.

What do I think of the fans’ selection of the starting lineup?

The fans did OK here for both teams, with the exception of voting Carmelo Anthony as the starting forward for the Eastern Conference.  With the Knicks struggling and currently out of the playoff picture, Anthony deserves some blame for the disappointing start.  There are many players over the years I can think of off the top of my head – e.g. Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Allen Iverson – who are considered top-tier players and perennial All-Stars, but whose teams get better after they leave.  Those are exactly the kind of players that can be considered overrated, or at least the players whose talents don’t translate to winning team basketball.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:  Melo is no exception as one of these players, as evidenced by Denver’s success and New York’s woes. As I’ve said repeatedly, I believe both Melo and his teammate Amare Stoudemire are stars only by name, not by deed. They would be much better served as 3^rd or 4^th options on a team behind true stars that know how to facilitate their teams, where they can afford to be just scorers and not facilitators.

Chris Bosh has stepped it up during his second season
in a Heat uniform

So if not Melo, who should have been picked instead?  Easy:  Chris Bosh.  He has been on an absolute tear this season, setting out to prove that there really is a Big Three in Miami.  Dwyane Wade has battled injuries all year, but Miami has gone 8-1 in the games in his absence – in large part due to Bosh’s much-improved play.  The question of whether he can be an effective third wheel still remains, but there’s no question he’s worthy of a spot on the All-Star team.

The rest of the starters on both teams are spot on, although I would have been OK with Russell Westbrook getting the nod over Chris Paul as the starting guard out West.  Then again, CP3 has been filling up the stat sheets lately and has propelled his Clippers to 2^nd best in the West.  His latest string of games has been particularly impressive, helping his team handily defeat the Thunder at home, and getting tough road wins against Denver and Utah (no small feat).  They are an elite team, and their franchise fortune-turning play is well deserving of having two All-Star starters represent them.  

MY RESERVE PICKS

Key Omissions due to Injury:

Rajon Rondo (Boston), Luol Deng (Chicago),  Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)

Eastern Conference

We've seen plenty of J-Smoove highlights -
but somehow no All-Star appearances

Since Bosh should be starting, he should be a lock for a reserve spot.  The Hawks have been playing great basketball despite losing Al Horford for the season, and Joe Johnson and Josh Smith have both been the main reasons why.  Oddly enough, Smith has NEVER been selected as an All-Star, but I can’t see coaches snubbing him this year.  Even without Horford, I think the Hawks are good enough to give Miami or Chicago (depending on the seeding) a run for their money in the 2^nd round of this year’s playoffs. In any case, Johnson and Smith should both make the team.

As I do every year, I base my picks off of teams who are winning.  Since Philadelphia and Indiana have played winning basketball this year, they absolutely must have some All-Star representation.  Jrue Holiday has been the key to the 76ers’ great start; he has been orchestrating an offense responsible for getting SIX players averaging double figures in points, with Evan Turner (9.8) and Jodie Meeks (9.0) not far behind.  He and Andre Iguodala have been the primary playmakers for this team, averaging 9.7 assists between them.  I’m not sure if anyone had Philly winning the Atlantic Division this year, but they’re going to win it by a long shot.

The 76ers have become the league's most surprising team this season

A broken nose hasn't stopped Roy Hibbert from
becoming one of the league's elite bigs

For Indiana, Roy Hibbert has become a beast in the paint and has added another dimension to the Pacers’ offensive and defensive schemes.  He’s displayed his fair share of toughness as well, especially against the Lakers – where he broke his nose and played through it to help the Pacers to get a road win in LA.  

It’s funny seeing Danny Granger and Iguodala as my wild cards, because of how similar their situations have been in recent years.  Neither of their teams has been particularly good in years past, but the two of them have been steady leaders for their squads for a few years now.  Two of the most dynamic and athletic wing players in the league, they have had plenty of help this particular season from their respective supporting casts – and it has translated to their teams’ success.  

Western Conference

Aldridge is long overdue for an All-Star bid

After declaring Westbrook a shoe-in, this is where things get tough.  Kevin Love has arguably become the best power forward in the league (how many PF’s have ever averaged 25 points and 15 rebounds?), so you can’t exclude him.  Besides, Larry Bird has been craving for white superstars in the NBA - you gotta appease the Legend.  Anyway, let’s keep going:  LaMarcus Aldridge was the biggest snub last season, so I don’t think coaches will leave him off the team this time around.  Rudy Gay has filled in admirably for the Grizzlies after Zach Randolph went down, so he is deserving of a first-time All-Star bid as well.

Nene is one of Denver's
many solid pieces

So after rewarding players who are long overdue, let’s try to reward the teams that are winning – like the third-place Nuggets.  Denver is a team much like Philadelphia and Indiana – one without a true superstar, but full of very good players.  Still, you have to reward them with at least one All-Star.  I picked Nene, since there are not many other very good Centers in the West (or the league, for that matter).  As much of a bad rap as Dallas has gotten for their slow start, they are still sitting in 4^th place overall in the West.  For that reason, I just can’t get myself to deny Dirk an All-Star bid – even though he’s played well below his potential and has missed several games due to injury. 

This leaves one more spot, which should go to someone from either Utah or San Antonio.  Since Manu Ginobili, the Spurs’ leading scorer, has been hit with injuries all season, I can’t pick him.  Utah, though, has exceeded everyone’s expectations.  Their two bigs – Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson – have both been a load for opposing front courts.  So since I can’t decide which one of them should get the bid, I’ll say that they are both equally deserving.  I hate how shaky my logic has been for this, but there are going to be some players in the West that are bound to get snubbed.

Season Award Predictions through 50 NBA games

Now that the All-Star teams have been selected, time to look at who’s contending for individual awards now that that we’re at the more-than-midway point of the season.  For each of the awards, I’ll put down contenders, who I think should get it, and who I think will get it.

Most Valuable Player

Contenders: 

LeBron James, Miami Heat

Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks

Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets

Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs

Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers

Kevin Durant, OKC Thunder

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

Amare Stoudemire, New York

Easily the most debatable award of the 10-11 season, as there’s lots of candidates in this one.  Seemingly every year, a lot of guys have a pretty good case with one or two of them usually standing out.  But this year, there is no clear cut winner.  The Heat have two guys in the top 3 in Hollinger’s Personal Efficiency Ratings (PER) – LeBron and Wade at 1^st and 3^rd, respectively. 

Who I think should win:  Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks

Now, I know this is a bit of a head scratcher.  But hear this:  I have two criteria for separating an MVP from a list of legit contenders: 

1) Player MUST be on a team considered to be a serious title contender.
2) Player is the clear-cut alpha dog carrying his team (i.e. there is a large drop-off to the 2^nd best player on the team).  

Unfortunately, players that satisfy these particular conditions – particularly the 1^st rule – don’t always represent players who mean the most to their team – which is what an MVP award should be.  But looking at the history, this award has generally been awarded to players on title contenders.  At this point in the season, the teams I could foresee being contenders are the following:  Miami, Boston, Chicago, LA, OKC, Dallas, and San Antonio (I’ll explain this, as well as omissions, in another post).  In turn, this weeds out guys like Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Amare Stoudemire on this list (and the reason why we don’t even mention those not on the list, like Steve Nash and Deron Williams) – who are all extremely important and indispensible to their teams.  Team records and championship contention matter.  Period. 

Either D-Wade and LeBron should be co-MVPs, or neither should win

The 2^nd rule eliminates LeBron (who has Wade), Wade (who has LeBron – you know, just to be clear), Manu (Duncan), Kobe (Pau), and Durant (Westbrook).  Having a great 2^nd fiddle dilutes an alpha dog’s accomplishments a little bit, since defenses can’t afford to gear their entire attention toward them.  Obviously, Wade and Lebron have both always been tops in the league in PER even as clear-cut alpha dogs.  While this makes their feat this year that much more impressive, both deserve credit for their team’s success.  Unless voters can vote both of them in as co-MVPs, I can’t vouch for one or the other exclusively. 

Let’s look at Dirk:  he lost arguably the 2^nd best player on his team (Caron Butler) to a season-ending injury.  Hell, he’s even resurrecting Tyson Chandler’s career just by his presence.  Dallas had a horrendous record while he sat out with a sprained knee, forcing him to come back a little early and tough it out for his team.  Remember when Steve Nash’s absences during injury (and subsequent team struggles) sealed his bid for the 2005 MVP award?  Also, unlike the other contenders, none of his teammates are anywhere to be found in the league’s top 40 in PER.  He is the clear alpha-dog on this team, and his absence should bolster his case just as it did for Nash.   Oft criticized and given the ‘soft’ label, Dirk has been remarkably healthy his entire career for a Power Forward.  If he was just a jump shooter, I could get behind that ‘soft’ argument.  But that’s far from the case – he has a complete offensive repertoire both in the post and on dribble penetration.  When he does get injured, he seems to bounce back freakishly quickly – just look back at any ankle injuries he’s had – rarely does he miss much time from those.  I’ve been as hard on Dirk as anyone, particularly during the Mavs’ 2006 collapse vs. D-Wade’s Heat, but this shouldn’t take him out of the running for a regular season award. 

Dirk should get his due for carrying the Mavs

Of course, by saying Dirk qualifies for this award, I’m saying Dallas is a legitimate contender.  I know people struggle with this every year given their recent 1^st round woes, but Dallas still has an outside chance to contend for a title.  I know I said I would explain my reasons for listing contenders, but I’ll briefly explain Dallas’ hopes.  Surprisingly, I could see them making a run if things hold up and they retain the 2^nd seed in the West.   Even without Butler, they have talented perimeter players and plenty of size and depth to surround Dirk.  In fact, this might be Dirk’s most ideal supporting cast he’s ever had.  Not that they’re the most talented teammates he’s had, but they may be the best compliments.  Ugh, this may derail his MVP argument.  Oh well.  Anyway, I’m assuming they would handily defeat a 7^th seed this year (if you recall, they were a 2^nd seed last year, too – except they wound up against San Antonio, which was perhaps the best 7^th seed in playoff history) and be a tough matchup for either LA or OKC.  Can they beat San Antonio?  I’m not sure, but they’ve done it before.

Who I think will win:  LeBron James, Miami Heat

 LeBron and Wade will split a lot of votes (depending what happens the remainder of the season), but votes will not be diluted enough to let one of the other contenders win (since the other contenders will split votes amongst themselves as well).  And because LeBron has a lot of things going for him numbers-wise (he’s #1 in the league in PER, as well) and is Miami could end up being the 1^st seed in the Eastern Conference, he is probably the favorite to win his 3^rd straight MVP award. 

With a 3^rd MVP award, LeBron would join Kareem, MJ, Bill Russell, Wilt, Bird, Magic, and Moses as the only players to accomplish that feat.  That is an incredibly exclusive list, but of course he would be the first from that group to get there without winning a title first.  Does he deserve that honor?  I say not yet.  I personally think Wade would deserve the award as much, if not more than LeBron.  Remember that the Heat played relatively poorly until Wade got his rhythm earlier this season.  But LeBron has the better numbers, and that generally sells the MVP voters.  It is worth noting, though, that Cleveland became the worst team in the league upon LeBron's departure (though Z leaving and Varejao, Parker, and Mo all having injuries didn't help, either).  

I do have one wildcard in the MVP race, though:  Derrick Rose.  If Chicago somehow goes on a tear to finish the season with Noah and Boozer healthy, they would be a dark horse to contend for the title and Rose can win MVP.  Considering the injuries that Noah and Boozer have had, Rose would deserve a ton of credit for what he’s done.  Right now, I think the Bulls are a little too inconsistent to be considered serious contenders.  We also need to see how they mesh with everyone healthy.  We also need to see if Thibodeau wises up and benches Keith Bogans.  Since that’s all up in the air, I’m predicting that LeBron will win.

Rookie of the Year

Contenders:

Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Okay, you get the point.  I dare you to argue with me about this one.  The funny thing is, the only wrench I’ve seen thrown in this argument is saying that Griffin is not really a rookie (he was injured all year last year and couldn’t play).  Umm..OK?  The Rookie of the Year award is the complete opposite of the MVP race, in that there is no race.  I think I’ve already talked about how awesome he’s been in several posts so far, so I need not say more. 

Before I make this one more suspenseful, the winner is…

Who I think should win:  Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Prediction:  Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

 If this vote isn’t unanimous, someone needs to off anyone who doesn’t vote for him.  No contest whatsoever.

Sixth Man of the year

Contenders:

Jamal Crawford, Atlanta Hawks

Lamar Odom, LA Lakers

Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks

James Harden, OKC Thunder

Who I think should win:  Lamar Odom, LA Lakers

Like every regular season, the Lakers have their ups and downs.  But one of the most consistent guys, ironically, has been Odom this year.  Always a tough matchup for any team’s 1^st and 2^nd units, Odom uses his size and quickness to aid Kobe and Gasol.  This particular year, with Pau’s up-and-down play and the Ron Artest- Matt Barnes tandem being relatively non-existent, Charles Barkley put it best:  Lamar might be the 2^nd best Laker.  For all the criticism they’ve received, LA is still 36-16. 

Who I think will win:  Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks

This is assuming Dallas will have a better record than LA, since LA has a tougher remaining schedule. Terry’s won this award before, and I somehow doubt that Dirk will get the MVP consideration he deserves.  Rick Carlisle probably won’t get Coach of the Year consideration, so I’m guessing the one way they reward Dallas is with this award.  That usually is the case for their regular season success, as their “sixth men” the past several years have contended for the award (Jason Terry, Antoine Walker, Jerry Stackhouse, Antawn Jamison, etc.). 

Coach of the Year

Contenders:

Monty Williams, New Orleans Hornets

Doc Rivers, Boston Celtics

Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

Nate McMillan, Portland Trailblazers

Greg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs

Who I think should win:  Nate McMillan, Portland Trailblazers

I’ll admit that this is a bit of a pity award for the Blazers.  The league’s most injury ravaged team needs some credit for staying afloat in the playoff race.  Since LaMarcus Aldridge wasn’t given any credit for this (by not being voted onto the All-Star team despite multiple big games so far this season), McMillan should.  You see a lot of teams, when facing injuries, that have the wounded tiger syndrome, where they come together and put together a good stretch.  However, it’s only a matter of time before injury depletion takes its toll.  With the Blazers, McMillan has continued to motivate his players through yet another rough period of injuries.   Take a look at this graphic from last year.  No other team (except maybe last year’s Golden State Warriors) would fill up even ¼ of that chart.  Give McMillan the credit he deserves for continuing to keep his team afloat in the loaded Western Conference despite the injury curse. 

Who I think will win:  Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs

This is contingent upon the Spurs holding the league’s best record.  If that does happen, I wouldn’t be too opposed to this choice.  Amazingly, Popovich has only won the award once despite his immense success with the franchise.  He’s one of the few coaches whose coaching brilliance is taken for granted, along with Phil Jackson and Jerry Sloan (who STILL has never won the award in 20 straight years with Utah).  In the NBA GM’s survey this past offseason, Popovich was voted the best coach at making in-game adjustments.

Given that the Hornets are the only real "surprise" team of the league, first-year head coach Monty Williams could also very well win this award.  Of course, having Chris Paul as your floor general helps, too.  

Most Improved Player

Contenders:

Dorell Wright, Golden State Warriors

JJ Hickson, Cleveland Cavaliers

Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers

Who I think should win:  Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

Who I think will win:  Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

This is 2^nd least suspenseful award that will be handed out.  Announced as an All-Star reserve, Love is averaging 21.3 ppg and a ridiculous 15.6 rpg.  Last year?  14 ppg and 11 rbg.  To qualitatively state  how much better he is, he only started 22 of 60 games played last year and started all 50 for the Wolves this season.   Granted he plays for the 2^nd worst team in the league, his improvement has been very impressive.  The other three on the list, particularly Wright, have improved considerably as well.  But this is Kevin Love’s breakout year. 

In the end, this is what you get:

All-Star Starters Announced

I was 100% correct in my All-Star starter predictions....

Ok, nothing to be proud of.  But the starters were announced on TNT tonight.  Following the announcement,  endless debate ensued regarding who the reserves should be - just as expected . But the TNT crew, one of the most (if not THE most) entertaining TV crew in all of sports, had several points of contention among them.  Here were the main debates, with my take on them:

1.  Kevin Love - All-Star or not?

As mentioned earlier, I do not think Kevin Love should not be one of the reserves because of his team's success, or lack thereof.  Kenny Smith reiterated my thoughts on this - it's no disrespect to Kevin Love himself, but rather he is a victim of his team.  Charles Barkley and Chris Webber strongly disagreed, thinking that Kevin Love should make the team if Blake Griffin does (Griffin was unanimously picked among everyone in the TNT crew).  C-Webb said something that got me thinking:  "If Blake Griffin couldn't dunk, would you still think he should be an All-Star over Kevin Love?"  What he obviously meant by that notion is that while Griffin and Love have been equally impressive, people only give Griffin the nod because of his frequent highlight reel-making plays (and perhaps the bigger LA market).  

That's a good point by C-Webb.  Kevin Love has had a double-double in EVERY game since Nov. 19th.  Pretty absurd.  Off the top of my head, it's been slightly longer than since Blake Griffin has not recorded one.

Unfortunately for Love, what throws a wrench in his argument is the team success variable.  As Kenny said, Minnesota has won just two more games than Cleveland.  Griffin and the Clippers started very slow, and do not appear to be a playoff team.  Nonetheless, they are still +7 games ahead of Minnesota in the West and started 1-13.  After getting his first few NBA games under his belt, Griffin has been an absolute beast and has given the Clippers the one thing they have rarely had in the history of their franchise:  hope.  That cannot be measured in stats.  You can argue that the Clippers have more talent than Minnesota (which is true), but the All-Star game is also a fan's game.  The coaches are going to vote Griffin in over Love no matter what.  Even with the Yao injury, I don't think Love will get in because of all the other reserve candidates on winning teams that may not get initially voted in (Parker, Nash, etc.).  

2.  Bosh/Duncan - Lifetime Achievement or Deserving All-Stars?

The TNT crew had varying opinions on whether these two guys deserve to get in.  Barkley feels as though some players on great teams get awarded "lifetime achievement" votes, where players are voted in based on reputation instead of their performance through the first half of an NBA season.  This is probably true to an extent, but not in the case of these two guys.  Not if you value team success.

Miami would not be as good without Chris Bosh, and I think people have finally acknowledged that while he's been out with an ankle injury.  Though not a prolific low-post scorer, he is an absolute nightmare to guard for opposing 4s and 5s.  Too quick against bigs, and too tall and too good of a shooter against shorter bigs. His quickness also makes him a terrific pick-and-roll defender; he deserves much credit for Miami's suffocating D. I honestly think that if you turned back the clock and Bosh and Amare traded places this past offseason, the Knicks would be just as good (if not better) with Bosh and Miami would not be nearly as good with Amare.  This is mostly because I think Amare would not be putting nearly the same effort when the ball's not in his hands as often.  Even as the 2nd fiddle behind Steve Nash in Phoenix, he was a god awful defender.  Remember him getting absolutely lit up by Pau Gasol in last year's Western Conference semis?  I still wouldn't trust him to anchor any team's defense.

As for Tim Duncan, how can you leave him off the All-Star team?  Do the Spurs go 39-7 at this point in the season without him?  I didn't think so.  If you put him in the Timberwolves, he may not be getting multiple 20-20 games like Kevin Love is.  But he damn well would win them a lot more than 10 games to this point.  

3.  Changing the voting process

Ok, so maybe this wasn't even an argument.  But Yao being a shoe-in every single year is getting old.  Last year, it was Allen Iverson that was controversially voted in.  Tracy McGrady was very close to being voted in over Steve Nash, also.  Yi Jianlian was almost voted in a couple years ago when he was on the ballot.  I think every year, at least a handful of players either get selected or receive several more votes than other more deserving players.  

Are you kidding me?  How has this not been addressed yet?  I know the All-Star game is a fan's game, but things have changed since voting has become available electronically worldwide.  It's way too easy for certain countries with the highest population to vote for certain players who don't deserve to be voted in. Hell, if I were on the ballot, India would probably help me get more total votes than 90% of the players.  The sad part is, that's probably not much of an exaggeration.

Ray Allen suggested giving fans a partial vote, similar to the way it's done for the regular season MVP ballot.  I'm not sure what the best way to do it is, but David Stern and his board has to come up with something better than the way it is now.