Why LeBron's Decision Made Sense for Reasons Beyond Basketball

Let me start by saying that I'm not the biggest LeBron James fan.  Although I respect his talent and acknowledge him as the best player in the world -- by far -- I was never blown away by him.  No disrespect to him as a player, but I just never grew the same kind of love for him as I did for Michael Jordan or even Dwyane Wade (from 2004 to 2009).  Both his game and personality just never jived with me in the same manner as those two guys.  While he is today's best player, I don't put him in the same category as guys like Magic, MJ, and Larry Bird in terms of having a killer instinct to win.  Personality wise, I think he oversells himself a little much (his introductory video in NBA 2K14 just made me roll my eyes), and sometimes his over-the-top business mentality approach has deservedly harmed his reputation.  I also completely disagree with his stance on why he never participated in the Slam Dunk contest; if transcendent superstars before him such as MJ, Dr J, Dominique, etc. had no issues with participating, what makes him above all that?

Overall, I'm not completely in love with his game or personality.  I've called into question plenty of his on and off-the-court decisions.

On July 11, 2014, however, LeBron James followed his heart, and that is the one decision that I am 100% behind.

When reading LeBron's first-hand essay on SI.com, I could not help but relate to what he is going through.  I'm not suggesting, by any means, that I'm in the same stratosphere of importance, or that the impact of my decisions even pale in comparison to that of LeBron's; I'm just drilling it down to just how difficult it is to make big decisions - particularly in terms of the pressure of weighing options, as well as being criticized from all angles before, during, and after making a decision.  After my experience making a decision to leave my job at NASA to go to graduate school as a full-time student at Georgetown, I can't even imagine the kind of heat LeBron was under with a whole different level of publicity and scrutiny.

LeBron James (right) will be teaming up with Kyrie Irving (left) next season

Six and a half years ago, I made the decision to leave my hometown and move to Orlando, FL to work for NASA.  Much like LeBron's decision, it was an absolute no-brainer; NASA was the perfect place to establish myself and jump-start my career - similar to why Miami was the right place for LeBron four years ago.  Since I was not criticized for that initial move and thus could not relate to that particular aspect of LeBron's first big decision, I found myself on the same side as many others in criticizing him for the manner in which he made this decision.  However, I did believe that he made the correct decision in teaming up with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in order to win championships.  I also give him credit for taking a substantial pay cut in order to make that arrangement.  Four years later, despite all the level of hatred going his way at the time, I think most people no longer fault him for making that move.

What I could NOW relate to is LeBron's decision to come back home.  While it might not make sense to most people to leave an income source, it makes a lot of sense for me to return close to home and pursue a passion.  As great as NASA is, I just did not sustain the same love for it as I originally thought I would.  Before working there, I saw an opportunity to achieve a stable career at a very respectable job.  But now, I have a chance to transition myself into something that I like doing better - albeit taking a risk in order to do so.  LeBron is taking a risk, but it is in his comfort zone where he is happy.  Sure, it's a long shot to bring Cleveland its first title in about 50 years.  But LeBron will be more than happy to take on that monumental task.

While LBJ is not getting nearly the same criticism now as in 2010, there was still a hefty amount of hate going his way nonetheless.  Several reporters called into question his lack of professionalism and courtesy to his fellow teammates for dragging this decision out so long.  Others said he would be a hypocrite for going back to Cleveland, given that he promised to win multiple championships in Miami (remember the infamous "not 1, not 2...." declaration).  In many people's eyes, he conceded his goal of winning multiple championships by acknowledging the Cavaliers - as constructed - are a long way from winning a title.

After this has all come full circle, let's give the guy a break.  Four years ago, he was a 25 year-old guy, who had never left Ohio, with the opportunity to move to Miami and play with his best friends.  When growing up, many of us needed to leave the vicinity of our hometowns - just to check it off our bucket list.  Before college, many of us were disgusted at the idea of living in our hometowns and being close to family.  But after venturing out on our own and accomplishing what we wanted to, the idea of being near family seems a lot more appealing.  As was the case for many of us, once LeBron sowed his oats, he gained some valuable perspective on what is most important to him.

Maybe it's because we're about the same age (we're just under 11 months apart), and we have experienced a similar path of personal growth.  Nonetheless, I completely endorse LeBron's free agency decisions.  As I know I need to go back to school to fulfill my personal and professional goals - even if it doesn't make sense to others - LeBron needs to do what gives him the most fitting personal situation.  Sure he's pissed off and confused a lot of people along the way.  He is guilty of being indecisive.  But so am I, and I think many others would be too if they are torn between difficult options on a big decision.  When I was torn between options, I pissed off my girlfriend (now fiancee) and my bosses at work with the roller coaster of a decision process.  I knew whatever path I chose, there was not one end-all option that would make everybody happy.  I had to do what was best for me (and of course, my finacee), and stop constantly and desperately searching for a perfect answer that everybody would endorse.

LeBron's biggest criticism hit him hard when he announced "The Decision" back in 2010.  Make no mistake:  he, as well as everyone else out there, acknowledged that it was not the most sensitive and effective approach to his decision.  It gave everyone enough justification to ignore the fact that the telecast raised 2.5 million dollars for charity, and call LeBron's character into question.

Okay, enough about the life aspect of his decision.  What impact will this decision have on the NBA landscape?

Does this make Cleveland a contender?  No question.  Are they as good as Miami would have been with him?  Absolutely not - at least, not right now.  Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins are promising studs, but they are not better than Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh today.

This is going to be a huge test for LeBron in terms of his mentoring ability.  He seems to be universally praised for his knowledge of the game and leadership.  But he has yet to lead a team of young promising stars with him being the "old head."  On Miami, he was very fortunate to have proven leaders such as Wade and Udonis Haslem (don't laugh - he has been the team's co-captain for several years now) to help him lead Miami to its four Finals appearances and two titles.  But this new gig will be completely uncharted territory.  I expect that he will do well, but I am not sure if it will lead to a championship in Cleveland quite yet.  But if he does, LeBron's legacy will be something extremely unique.

Quick point on those who didn't expect LeBron to come back to Cleveland:  everything that people conventionally thought would deter him from coming back home is being overblown completely.  A couple quick myths below:

Myth 1:  LeBron is still pissed at Dan Gilbert for the infamous Comic Sans tirade.
Fact: Yes, it irked LeBron.  But LeBron irked Dan Gilbert and the entire Cleveland fan base.  Considering all the feuds throughout the NBA that most of us don't know about, this was not nearly as big a deal as everyone made it out to be.  The two of them were able to hash this out after LeBron made up his mind.

Myth 2:  LeBron won't want to play for a rookie coach.
Fact:  As we've all come to know, this is a player's league.  If new coach David Blatt fails to win over his players, GM David Griffin will not hesitate pulling the plug on him.  The current coach should have virtually NO impact on LeBron's decision.  Other than Gregg Popovich, there is NO coach in the NBA who will have the final say over LeBron.

Myth 3:  LeBron wants to win as many titles as his idol, Michael Jordan.
Fact:  The number of championships he wins is no longer LeBron's biggest priority; securing a championship to his home state of Ohio serves as a far more powerful goal and would give him an incredibly unique legacy.  He thinks that this is a far more difficult feat to accomplish, and no longer thinks the grind of multiple years of playing deep into June is important anymore.  In 2010, he thought the Big Three era would allow him not to have to carry most of the load.  In 2014, he realized that this approach would no longer be valid as the Heat were constructed.  Now, he has a chance to lead a younger and fresher group and perhaps not log nearly as many minutes.

Overall, I think this is great for the NBA.  The Eastern Conference has suddenly become balanced and appealing.  The timing is fantastic, considering the conference had arguably its worst season in the history of the league.  I think Miami is still the favorite in the East, but we'll get to that before the season starts.  For now, let's enjoy the announcement and see how it plays out.  On the whole, this development has the potential to become the greatest story in the history of sports.

Floridian NBA Teams struggling to find their groove

Since moving here to Orlando three years ago, I've learned this:  it goes without saying that Florida is a football state.  With tons of teams to watch, 90% of the people here religiously watch college (Florida, Central Florida, Florida State, Miami, South Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida A&M) and/or pro (Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jaguars) football.  Before this season, the fact that Orlando and Miami even have basketball teams has been a bit of an afterthought.   Heck, the Heat even had to campaign for the team and make promos, urging fans to “Fan Up” for Heat games, even after the team made arguably the biggest off-season splash in NBA history.  As for the Magic, they still don’t seem to get as much attention in this area as they should.  Maybe that will change, especially with their spectacular brand new arena.  Mind you, they are both relatively new NBA teams; the Heat became a franchise in the 1988-89 season, and the  Magic joined the league one season later.  Football has obviously been around much longer.

With a solid team and new arena, Orlando has potential to be a better basketball city

For once in my current state of residence, though, the sports talk now revolves around basketball.  Last night’s instant classic Heat-Magic game, where the Magic made a furious rally to overcome a 24 point deficit (the 2^nd largest comeback in Magic history) to beat the Heat, has Florida sports fans talking basketball for a change.  If these two teams were in bigger basketball towns like NYC, Boston or LA, you would be even more sick to death of hearing about them.   

Orlando and Miami have had different issues, but very similar seasons in terms of their inconsistency.  Both teams, unlike the pro football teams, are legitimate championship contenders.  Both of these teams have had similar phases of ups and downs this season; they are both dealing with integrating new players in a fluid roster and trying to find an identity.  As a result, both teams have struggled to maintain consistency.  One night after their impressive comeback vs. Miami, the Magic faltered against Chicago.  On this same night, Miami could not recover from its collapse vs Orlando and got torched by San Antonio.  It seems that both teams go through phases of erratic play, and we have no idea how far they will get in the playoffs even though they are both legitimate contenders.   

ORLANDO MAGIC

Season Summary

Until recently, this team has had a very disappointing season.  Fresh off two very solid seasons – including two conference finals (and one NBA Finals) appearances – Orlando was widely considered to be a contender for the 2011 NBA title.  But after months of inconsistent and subpar basketball, turmoil has surrounded the team:  a blockbuster trade (Vince Carter, Mikael Pietrus, Marcin Gortat and Rashard Lewis shipped out; Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, and Earl Clark brought in) happened and a difficult adjustment period ensued, Dwight Howard has repeatedly expressed frustration with his teammates, and rumors swirled with regard to the possibility of Howard bailing Orlando as a free agent in 2012. 

Lingering Issues

Orlando still sorely misses the defensive presence
of G/F Mikael Pietrus and C Marcin Gortat

You can’t just dismiss Orlando’s issues on the court, even after their inspiring come-from-behind victory against Miami on Thursday night.  Lots of questions surround Orlando as they press forward.  They still miss Pietrus and Gortat dearly, as they were the “glue” guys on this team (especially on defense).  Two of the newcomers – Hedo and Arenas – are clearly not the players they once were.  Hedo was slightly rejuvenated right after the trade after basically rotting for two years in Toronto and Phoenix, but has struggled as of late.  Arenas has been somewhat of a non-factor, and does not appear to be a good fit with starter Jameer Nelson.  In fact, Nelson has played better when Arenas sat out with injuries.  If Orlando ends up having a disappointing season, I can’t see Magic GM Otis Smith keeping both of them.   

With Gortat’s departure, the Magic have still not found a center to back up Howard (I’m going out on a limb and saying that Malik Allen ain’t gonna cut it as a center).  If they were to face teams with multiple active bigs on their roster (e.g. Boston, Chicago, LA), their thin front line will be exposed.  Also, Pietrus’s absence really hurts the Magic’s perimeter defense, which is what Howard has been especially critical of lately.  With average perimeter defenders, it will be tough matching up with the NBA’s elite scorers in the Eastern Conference during the playoffs. 

Do they have a chance?

Having said all that, you can conclude that when the Magic are engaged and focused, they can still beat anybody in a seven-game playoff series.   Howard has considerably improved his low-post offense, especially in the past month (approaching a FG% of 70 for the month!).  His presence and ability to draw double and triple teams will always create offense and lead to open perimeter shots.  As the D’Antoni era of Phoenix will teach you, teams live and die by the three point shot.  But Jason Richardson is still deadly from 3, as evidenced by his barrage of long-bombs that helped Orlando rally against Miami last night.  No matter what, they are never out of the game as long as Howard is crashing the boards and J-Rich is hitting 3’s.  The other thing about J-Rich:  he, unlike Vince Carter, is CLUTCH.  That's an intangible that the Magic have not really had since Rashard Lewis started shopping at GNC (and consequently got suspended for 10 games at the beginning of last year, which he apparently never quite recovered from).  

Hedo's known for his clutch play - at least with the Magic

While he has not been playing very well lately, Turkoglu will be a key player come postseason.  He’s a gifted playmaker for a player his size, and is one of the few guys who knows how to throw good entry passes to Dwight in the post.  He, like J-Rich, is also very clutch.  In his previous stint with Orlando, Hedo was the go-to guy for coach Stan Van Gundy down the stretch of close games.  In addition to late-game play creating and shot making, he and J-Rich have the potential to create as many match-up problems with opponents today as he did with Lewis in their 2009 playoff run.

So, there’s still hope for this team.  When everything clicks, you will see results like their game against Miami.  Still, Van Gundy has his hands full to address all the concerns in an effort to get his team ready.  If they’re not careful, they could slip in the standings and end up losing in the first round.  If they get their act together, they can win the title.  They’re much like last year’s version of the Celtics – a team limping though the regular season, but with potential to make noise in the playoffs. Since the team has had very successful regular seasons the past few years, they might just be bored with the routine of the regular season.  Maybe they are only engaged when they face the truly elite teams.

MIAMI HEAT

Season Summary

Much like their in-state rivals, Miami has had a comparatively up-and-down season.  An adjustment period was to be expected after Wade, Bosh, and LeBron joined forces last summer.  But after struggling out of the gates and starting 9-8, chaos followed.  Doubters questioned LeBron and D-Wade’s cohesion.  Team captain and designated tough guy Udonis Haslem went down with a torn foot ligament.  Mike Miller was still out with a thumb injury he suffered in the pre-season.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra was rumored to be fired and replaced by team president Pat Riley (a déjà vu scenario from the 2005-06 season, in which Riley took over for Stan Van Gundy after an 11-10 start).  Since then, however, the Heat managed to establish themselves as an elite team and still currently hold the 2^nd best record in the East (behind Boston). 

Lingering Issues

Even though the Big Three have found a way to co-exist, they still struggle against the better teams of the NBA; they are 0-7 against Boston, Dallas, and Chicago.  Also, Spoelstra still needs to iron out the team’s late game strategies; they are 2-12 against winning teams in games decided by five points or less, though the merit of that stat has mixed opinions by some of the best basketball minds.  Miami's epic collapse vs. Orlando yesterday is no fluke; they have struggled mightily with holding leads as a result of their unstable offense.

The most common question that’s been asked all season long is still valid:  with the game on the line, should LeBron or D-Wade get the ball?  I have already voiced my opinion on the two players, and I’m not changing my opinion:  D-Wade should get the ball in late-game situations.  LBJ has clearly been unable to convert in these situations, especially on wide-open jump shots.   Miami has lost 4 of their last 5, and LeBron was MIA in those four losses down the stretch – reverting back to his Cleveland days by running his very ineffective and perplexing 1-on-5 offense.  Either Wade or Spoelstra needs to speak up and take the ball out of LeBron’s hands in those situations.  

When the Big Three sit, the other Heat need to step up

Late-game situations aside, the Heat need contributions from the rest of the team.  Chris Bosh has been fairly inconsistent, but he still contributes defensively.  James Jones, Mike Miller, Mike Bibby and Eddie House really need to be more aggressive, as the Heat offense has become somewhat predictable.  On defense, elite teams tend to pick Miami apart – especially in the paint and on closeout perimeter shots (as evidenced by tonight’s game vs. the Spurs).  That’s something Spoelstra needs to address with his bigs – Joel Anthony, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Erick Dampier.  Of course, Z is the only offensive threat out of the three, so they basically play 4 on 5 on the offensive end with Anthony or Dampier at the 5 position.

Do they have a chance?

Having a team with multiple superstars is kind of like having multiple job offers:  it can be a challenging predicament, but it’s a great situation to be in.  In their first season together, the Big 3 will only gain cohesion over time.  Furthermore, the much-maligned Heat bench will get better as lethal shooters Mike Bibby and Mike Miller try to find their stride.  Haslem will also return sometime next month and bolster their thin front line.  Also, the veterans on their team will pick up their play when the playoffs come around.  Finally, if they remain the East’s 2^nd seed, they will basically have a practice round to gel at the start the playoffs before having to face the top contenders.  The question is whether they will gel in time to be good enough to face those top teams.

PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

A lot can happen in the last 20+ games of the regular season, and both teams have a chance to get their act together by the time the playoffs begin.  For starters, neither team should have much trouble with their first round opponents.  Since the playoffs never have back-to-back games, players battling injuries will benefit from a minimum one-day rest in between games.  This format has generally benefited injury-prone players – especially Wade and Nelson – and will come in handy come playoff time. 

This is obviously all speculative, but let’s go through a playoff scenario:  say the current seeds hold and Miami and Orlando end up 2^nd and 4^th, respectively, in the conference.  As I mentioned, Miami would play (and beat) one of the weaker East teams (most likely either Philly or Indiana) in the 1^st round.  Orlando will most likely play Atlanta, who has never matched up well with the Magic.   That would mean Miami would likely face Chicago and Orlando would match up with Boston in Round 2. 

As I said after the trade deadline, I actually like Orlando’s chances against Boston, only because they lost Kendrick Perkins.  Would the Magic win?  I don’t think so, but they definitely have a better shot now that Perkins is gone.  Unless Shaq can contain Howard one-on-one, Dwight will command double/triple teams and Orlando can finally play their inside-outisde game against Boston.  Of course, this will all depend on how hot JJ Redick, J-Rich, and the rest of the shooters will be.  But if they’re on, they can make the Celtics sweat. 

Miami-Chicago would make for an electrifying playoff series

Chicago is obviously a tough matchup for Miami, but I think they would strongly prefer them over Boston.  The Bulls have been a team on the rise, but have yet to get over the hump.  In fact, this is their first year as legitimate title contenders.  Although they’re 2-0 against Miami in the regular season so far, Chicago will have to prove to themselves that they take down a fellow title contender.  I will get into this further when the playoffs start, but it’s definitely fun talking about the possibility of these two teams matching up and Chicago definitely has the talent to shock the world. 

D-Wade and D-Howard are nightmare
match-ups to each other's teams

If the two teams somehow faced each other, I can easily envision a 7 game series.  With Miami having no answer for Howard, the Heat will be forced to commit double teams.  On the flip side, Orlando’s woes on perimeter D will really open things up for LeBron and D-Wade, especially in fast-break situations.  Before their collapse yesterday, Miami has actually outplayed Orlando for the most part.  But in the playoffs, games tend to slow down and tighten up.  This would favor Orlando, as they are the better team in the half court offense.  There are still a lot of questions that need to be answered before these two teams can even get to this point, but a head-to-head playoff series would be a heavyweight slugfest.  Man, the playoffs are going to be great – in both conferences – from the 2^nd round onward. 

Since there finally seems to be a buzz about these two teams, the passion of sports fans  in the state of Florida with regard to basketball is finally somewhat resembling that of other fans in big market basketball towns.  They’ve got a long way to go, but this is a good start.  As a result, you’re going to see the same roller coaster reactions you see at bigger market basketball cities.  When either team struggles, there is a mass panic reaction.  When they put together a good stretch of play, the championship talk begins and bandwagon fans arrive.  If these two teams face each other in the playoffs, you better believe the state Florida – and the nation – will be watching.   

Best Defenders of the NBA

You could describe yesterday’s Thunder-Lakers and Heat-Knicks games with one word:  defense.  Despite all four of those teams being known for their offensive firepower, these games were really about a terrific display of defense.  As any coach will tell you, close games come down to defensive stops.  In the case of these two games, the Lakers and Knicks were able to come up with stops, and the Thunder and Heat were not.

In the final possessions of the Thunder-Lakers game, LA made three crucial defensive stops: Gasol took a charge on Westbrook’s drive, Ron Artest deflected a pass intended for Kevin Durant that led to a steal, and of course LA contested the desperation 3’s in the last five seconds by KD and James Harden to perfection.  On the other end, OKC’s Thabo Sefolosha played tremendous defense (as usual) on Kobe all night, but was unable to stop Kobe’s dagger fade-away in the closing minutes. 

In the Heat-Knicks game, LeBron James was seemingly scoring at will against the Knicks defense.  But in the closing minutes, he failed to convert on a driving layup – thanks to Amare Stoudemire making a great block coming from the weak side (yes, I complimented Amare’s defense – but he deserves credit for this one time) – and he missed a potential game-tying three pointer in the closing seconds thanks to Carmelo Anthony’s contest (and LeBron’s inability to hit clutch jump shots, as I’ve pointed out earlier).   On the other end, Chauncey Billups made some clutch plays, including draining a serious long-ball from about 33 feet after catching D-Wade off guard - tricking him by picking up his dribble and looking to pass to a teammate.  I bet Knicks fans don’t miss Raymond Felton anymore after the last few games since the trade. 

Melo was locked in defensively vs. LeBron

Great offense beats great defense, but that is what makes making defensive stops that much more challenging.  As Charles Barkley says, there are two sides of the court, and you need to judge teams and players at both of those ends.  If there was only one side of the court, the Mike D’Antoni era of the Phoenix Suns would have been a dynasty.  But that’s what leads to the saying of the cliché that everybody in the basketball world has come to learn:  Defense Wins Championships.

There are several ways a player can help his team on the defensive end of the court.  Perimeter players can play great one-on-one defense and contest shots as best they can.  They can also be active on the passing lanes and create easy offense and transition plays.  Big guys can either play great post defense one-on-one, or they can anchor the paint and help on opponents that drive to the rim.  All of these examples of contributions are critical to team success.  In other words, there’s a reason why guys like Sefolosha, Anderson Varejao, Ben Wallace and Jason Collins are in the NBA; they all are extremely skilled defensive players and are very valuable to any team, despite their limited offensive abilities.  Since there are so many different types of effective defense, it doesn’t make sense to crown one person as the league’s best overall defender.  Instead, you look at several categories and aspects and see who excels in those areas.  Keeping this in mind, I will break down the league’s best defenders in some of the major areas for both perimeter and post players.

First, let’s go through categories of perimeter defense..

PERIMETER DEFENSE

1.       Most Pesky Perimeter Defender – also known as the best “Edward Scissorhands” (aka the Bruce Bowen award) player who uses quick and disrupting hands the most effectively when guarding the NBA’s prolific perimeter scorers.

2.       Best “Post” Perimeter Defender – the perimeter player who is the toughest to score on in the post.  This category includes defending bigger guards, and guarding bigs when caught defending them on a pick-and-roll switches. 

3.       Best Help Defender on Perimeter – player most effective with pursuing double teams on the perimeter and helps off their man to create turnovers in the passing lanes.

4.       Best Help Defender in the Paint – perimeter player who most effectively helps off their man to protect the paint against players making driving or post-up moves

5.       Best Ball-Denying Perimeter Defender – player who makes it the most difficult for players they guard that try to free themselves to get the ball.

6.       Best Charge-Taking Perimeter Defender – perimeter player who is the best at taking charges versus driving players.

7.       Best “Kobe Stopper” – player who guards unstoppable perimeter scorers the most effectively one-on-one without help.

Most Pesky Perimeter Defender (the Bruce Bowen Category) – Rajon Rondo, Boston

Rondo is a real pest against players with the ball.  When he guards you, you better make sure you have a tight grip on the ball.  Always among the league leaders in steals, Rondo uses his hands to take swipes at the ball and also is good at waving his hands around to deter the vision of players he’s guarding.  Pesky play is very effective at getting under the skin of great scorers.  It’s the reason why Doc put him LeBron during their last game in Boston.  It was very difficult for LeBron to facilitate the offense and get in a rhythm with Rondo playing him that way. 

Runner-ups for this category are LA's Derek Fisher and San Antonio's Manu Ginobili.

Best “Post” Perimeter Defender – Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers

Even great post-up scorers like Melo have a hard time scoring on Kobe

This one’s easy.  Kobe is a perennial All-NBA defender, even at this stage of his career.  When coaches design pick-and-roll plays, they tend not to design them even for their big guys to post up against Kobe.  Why?  He’s hard to score on for anybody, both perimeter and post players.  If you’re a guard that likes to post up (e.g. Andre Miller, Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups), forget about posting Kobe up.  He’s very strong and can body up on almost anybody.  If you do want to post him up, you gotta be both stronger and taller than him.  Even then, he’ll make it tough on you. 

If you want proof, just go back and watch any playoff series they had with Phoenix.  D’Antoni tried running some pick-and-roll plays with Kobe switching on to Boris Diaw, and Diaw couldn’t make Kobe budge in the post.  Also, one of the major downfalls of the pre-Redeem Team Olympic squads was their defense against the pick-and roll.  Chris Paul, Allen Iverson, and other small guards were constantly abused by bigger defenders that they had to guard at times.  When Kobe joined the Redeem Team in 2008, opponents had no such luck in those situations.

Runner-ups for this category are New York’s Chauncey Billups and Miami’s LeBron James.

Best Help Defender on Perimeter –Chris Paul, New Orleans

Using his speed and quickness to his advantage, Paul gambles off of his man fairly often and makes very effective double teams on both post and perimeter players.  Whenever opponents face the Hornets, they always have their mind on Chris Paul, whether or not he is guarding them individually.  He is everywhere on the court, and every opponent is extra careful in both perimeter passes and entry passes to into the post.  Because he’s so good at this, he creates tons of fastbreak opportunities off steals by creating havoc in the passing lanes. 

Runner-ups for this category are Boston’s Rajon Rondo and Miami’s Dwyane Wade.

Best Help Defender in the Paint – LeBron James, Miami

I am giving LeBron this category almost solely because of his signature chase-down blocks on both fastbreak and half-court drives to the rim. This feat makes every player second-guess themselves on driving opportunities, even when they’re wide-open.  If LeBron’s nearby, it’s hard for anybody to make a layup without him chasing it down and swatting it emphatically into the backboard.

Runner-ups for this category are Miami’s Dwyane Wade and Portland’s Gerald Wallace.

Best Ball-Denying Perimeter Defender – Ron Artest, LA Lakers

Artest has aged and his ability to stay in front of defenders has declined a bit.  Still, no matter how many picks are set for an offensive player, Artest takes tremendous pride in staying on him and denying him the ball by being physical and using his quick hands.  By doing this, he deflects a lot of passes (as with the aforementioned stop vs. Kevin Durant) and frustrates scorers that try to get the ball.  He is also good with the dirty veteran tactics, such as holding players jerseys before they try running away from him.  To this day, very few players have had success against Artest.  

Runner-ups for this category are LA’s Derek Fisher and OKC’s Thabo Sefolosha.

Best Charge-Taking Perimeter Defender – Derek Fisher, LA Lakers

No longer very good at guarding quick point guards, Fisher still knows how to step in front of driving players and taking charges.  His flopping ability helps get him the calls, as well.  It's tough for a defender to draw charges, especially since referees tend to favor superstars on their drives to the rim.  But Fisher is able to deter their reputation by drawing those fouls very effectively, even when he doesn't have position.  By the way, Fisher is the third Laker on this list.  If you wondered why even the best perimeter players struggle against this team, that fact reflects the reason behind it.  

Runner-ups for this category are Memphis’ Shane Battier and Utah’s Raja Bell. 

Best “Kobe Stopper” – Tie:  Dwyane Wade, Miami AND Thabo Sefolosha, OKC

Sefolosha has great defensive one-on-one instincts

I know I’ve previously declared D-Wade as the best Kobe defender.  But after watching Sefolosha yesterday, he reminded me how great of a one-on-one defender he really is.  He NEVER falls for pump fakes, reading his opponents’ moves extremely well.  We saw Kobe burn him on this day in the end, but that was as tough a shot as he could have taken and Kobe still only ended up 8-22 from the field.  Jeff Van Gundy raves about what a world-class defender he really is - and Jeff knows good defense when he sees it.  With his defensive talents, Sefolosha is asked to guard every opposing team’s best perimeter defender, and he does an outstanding job at it.   We never hear of him because he is not much of a scorer, but he has relished the role of a defensive stopper.  For now, I’ll say he’s on par with D-Wade, who is no slouch himself.  Wade averages the most blocks per game of any guard, and those come from both his one-on-one and help defense. When he doesn't get the rejection, he does a great job of at least contesting every shot he can.

When the playoffs come around, these two guys will be guarding the best offensive players in the league in their respective conferences.

Runner-ups for this category are Detroit’s Tayshaun Prince and Memphis’ Shane Battier.

POST DEFENSE

Now, let’s give the big guys some of their own defensive categories:

1.       Best “Perimeter” Post Defender – the counterpart to the above category of perimeter players that guard post players – the post player most effective at guarding perimeter players, particularly after pick-and-roll switches.

2.       Best "Hedger" – the post player best at hedging, or trapping, perimeter players off pick-and-rolls and returning to the post.

3.       Best Weak-Side Shot Blocker – player most effective at coming from the weak side – off their man – to block post or perimeter players.

4.       Best Overall Anchor of the Paint – player who is the best at protecting the paint and intimidating any intruders, particularly when helping their teammates on the perimeter get beat on drives to the rim by opponents.

5.       Best One-on-One Post Defender – player who is the most effective at individual post defense. 

Best “Perimeter” Post Defender – Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics

Garnett is arguably the league’s most versatile defender who can guard all 5 positions.  He has a deadly combination of length and quickness, and is the main reason why Boston became a defensive powerhouse when he arrived for the 2007-08 season.  KG combines his natural defensive abilities with his infamous verbal jousting playing normal one-on-one defense, but also uses it to intimidate perimeter players from coming his way.  Perimeter guys like Steve Nash feast on mismatches when a big switches to guard him on the perimeter, where he can blow by his bigger, slower opponent.  But if you’re a perimeter guy facing a big, long and scary dude who’s clapping in your face and stays in front of you, it’s intimidating.  Just watch this clip of him guarding Toronto point guard Jose Calderon.

Runner-ups for this category are Miami’s Chris Bosh and Atlanta’s Josh Smith.

Best "Hedger" – Chris Bosh, Miami

Say what you want about Bosh’s lower-than-expected contributions on the offensive end as the third fiddle behind D-Wade and LBJ.  On defense, he is one of the main reasons why Miami is a great defensive team.  Bosh is particularly good at trapping perimeter players on pick-and-rolls, and is very effective at cutting off passing lanes to cutting bigs. He was very effective at this during in the 2008 Olympic Gold-Medal Run.  Team USA had sorely lacked someone like Bosh in their losses from 2002-06, despite having several prominent bigs (e.g. Duncan, Lamar Odom, Carlos Boozer, etc).  Bosh isn't the greatest one-on-one post defender, given his small frame. But he sure makes up for it in many other defensive facets.

Runner-ups for this category are Cleveland’s Anderson Varejao and Boston’s Kevin Garnett.

Best Weak-Side Shot Blocker – Tyson Chandler, Dallas Mavericks

Chandler gives the Mavs some much-needed help D

Before this season, I would automatically gives this award to Josh Smith.  But Chandler has come into his own on the defensive end this year.  When healthy, Chandler is always among the NBA’s best post defenders.  He has proven to be a great asset to Dallas and a perfect complement to Dirk Nowitzki, whose defensive shortcomings were constantly exposed in recent playoff losses.  With a healthy Chandler helping Dirk from the weak side, Dallas should be a championship contender.

Runner-ups for this category are Portland’s Marcus Camby and Josh Smith, Atlanta.

Best Overall Anchor of the Paint – Dwight Howard, Orlando

A perennial Defensive Player of the Year contender, Dwight is always among the league leaders in blocks and rebounds.  This is solidified by his command of the paint on the defensive end.  If you’re a perimeter defender on the Magic, you have the luxury of Dwight protecting the paint against anybody who beats you off the dribble.  Therefore, it allows defenders to press up against players on the perimeter instead of backing off (i.e. they don’t have to fear their opponent blowing by them as much).  

Lately, however, Howard has publicly expressed frustration with teammates for abusing this luxury and not putting any effort in keeping perimeter players in front of them.  Howard is great at anchoring the paint, but even he can’t guard everybody.  A final straw for Magic GM Otis Smith to pull the trigger on trading away Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis was for this very reason – particularly against Denver, when Carmelo Anthony absolutely torched Orlando for 35 points on 14-21 shooting.  Now in Phoenix, Carter has been getting benched in favor of Mikael Pietrus, a much better defender who Orlando misses dearly.  Dwight is the one guy you can’t blame for players getting points in the paint, so instead people question Vince Carter and Rashard Lewis’ defensive deficiencies (and rightfully so). 

The Two-time defending Defensive Player of the Year is a beast on the low block

Overall, Dwight makes it intimidating for any opponent to drive to the paint.  NBA coaches’ offensive schemes generally are designed to avoid dealing with D12 in the paint area.

Runner-ups for this category are San Antonio’s Tim Duncan, Portland’s Marcus Camby and Boston’s Kevin Garnett.

There are certain players who are among the league’s elite in more than one category.  But this really shows that there are multiple ways to be effective on the defensive end.  There really aren’t any stats you can use to quantify these categories of skills.  But NBA coaching staffs do notice great defensive qualities, which is why you sometimes see offensive juggernauts benched in favor of better defenders when the game is on the line. Some great defenders aren't the flashiest or most exciting players, and thus are seldom talked about outside of their home fan base.  But take a look at the best defenders from the last three years - these guys do get recognition.

LeBron James vs. Dwyane Wade

One of the greatest upsides about the NFL season coming to an end, from an NBA perspective, is that the marquee matinée games commence every Sunday throughout the rest of the season.   After the season, of course, the 3-month playoff bonanza begins.  This means that, essentially, we will be seeing heavyweight contenders going head-to-head basically every weekend from now until June.  It’s a beautiful, beautiful thing for an NBA fan.  From here on out, we will be seeing constant NBA on ABC promos every weekend, in addition to the TNT and ESPN broadcasts during the week.  On this particular afternoon, we get to see one heck of a double-header: Heat-Celtics and Lakers-Magic.  This quality standard of double-and-triple headers will give me something to look forward to every Sunday.  Since I sleep in until about 11 or 12 on Sundays as is, I basically wake up to great basketball games.  It’s a great stretch of the calendar year for us NBA fans – the complete opposite of the miserable August-October time frame.  If you don’t like baseball, late-summer to early-fall is not a good time for you.

The frequent occurrences of these great games lead to resurfacing of the NBA’s greatest debates.  Today’s Heat-Celtics matchup, for example, prompts the “which Big 3 is better?” question.  A Heat-Lakers game always brings up the LeBron-Kobe argument.   The Celtics-Lakers rivalry has (and always will) raise the “best NBA franchise” debate.  These arguments really fuel the great matchups that we will be seeing frequently.

Today, I’m going to try to tackle one discussion that comes up every so often – the LeBron James and Dwyane Wade comparison.  Prior to this season (as opponents), every Miami-Cleveland game was a must-see.  The fierce competitiveness always leads to back-and-forth jaw-dropping plays between the two.  When they put their 7-year rivalry behind them and decided to become teammates, they received so much criticism from fans, analysts, and current and former players alike. Legends like Larry Bird, Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan all publicly criticized the move, saying they would never have teamed up with other superstars and instead would rather compete for championships against one another.  A lot of folks thought they had playing styles too similar to make it work.  Now, they are the most formidable duo in the league.  They are definitely similar players, in terms of their impact on the complexion of a game.  But they do have slightly different skill sets, strengths, and weaknesses that I will delve into. 

D-Wade and LBJ have been compared to each other since they were both drafted in 2003

Most people think that LBJ is a better player than D-Wade, and there is sufficient rationale behind it that I will break down later.  Some do acknowledge, however, that Wade has done a lot, including earning a championship ring, to prove his case.  This is one of those back-and-forth debates that will be talked about well after the two of them hang up their sneakers and earn Hall of Fame honors. 

Let’s compare these guys in as many categories as we can:

Scoring – Even

Let’s face it:  neither of these guys are above-average outside shooters.  Having said that, they can both get hot in a hurry.   We’ve already seen many games where they both have hot streaks and pile on the points.  Unfortunately, they both go through their fair share of cold streaks.  LeBron, in particular, has cleverly been called “LeBrick” by ESPN’s Skip Bayless, given how heavily the ball tends to clank off the rim whenever he misses.  A career 29% 3-point shooter, Wade hasn’t been much better.

As far as scoring in general, these two guys know how to fill up the scoreboard.  Their inconsistent outside shooting aside, they both have a great offensive repertoire.  Each of them have a scoring title (Lebron in 2007-08, Wade in 2008-09) to boot.  If LeBron uses his size and learns how to become a good post player, I would give him the nod in this category.  For now, they’re even.

Playmaking – LeBron

Both guys are fantastic facilitators, and we’ve seen both of them carry their teams in years past with average supporting casts.  They are both outstanding at getting their teammates involved, and they both have great court vision.  As gifted as they are as scorers, both players play unselfishly and make good decisions with the ball.  You saw LeBron play a lot of 1-on-5 in Cleveland, but that might have had more to do with head coach Mike Brown’s unimaginative offensive schemes and his teammates’ inability to create their own shots.  I’ve seen a few games this year where he falls back into that, but coach Spoelstra and D-Wade yell at him whenever he does.   Overall, though, he is very unselfish and efficient at getting his teammates involved.

Wade is also a very gifted playmaker.  At times, though, Wade gambles when facilitating the offense.  As fun as it is to watch his flashy playing style – be it his patented step-through, acrobatic moves around the rim, or creative passes – that style does sometimes leads to careless turnovers.   Career average wise, Wade only averages slightly more turnovers than LeBron (LBJ at 3.32, Wade at 3.66).  But LeBron gets more assists and has been given the point-forward role in Miami’s offense. 

Finishing – LeBron (slightly)

Whether it’s in the half-court or on fast-breaks, these two guys always make the highlight reels every night with spectacular finishes at the basket.  Individually and together, they are both absolutely devastating in transition.  Their styles in the halfcourt, however, are quite different;  LeBron often uses his brute speed and strength to overpower his opponents, while Wade is more flashy – using his quickness and slashing ability to get to the rim. Both are very effective.

Though they are very evenly matched in this category, I’ll give a slight edge to LeBron because of his strength and leaping ability.  Those two advantages make him more of an unstoppable force.  D-Wade is no slouch, though, having his fair share of dunks and and-one plays. 

Defense – Even

I fully expect both guys to make 1^st or 2^nd All-NBA Defensive teams for several years to come.  Both are fully aware that success starts at the defensive end.  Since LeBron is a bigger guy who still has great speed, I would say he’s the more versatile defender who can guard all 5 positions.  Wade uses his quickness and wreaks more havoc on the passing lanes, while LeBron uses his strength to bother opponents one-on-one to prevent them from beating him off the dribble.  These two guys are also very good at staying in front of players and contesting every shot.  Both players are equally effective on D, but in different ways.   Given their positions (Wade being a 2, LeBron a 3), they are also terrific rebounders. 

In the Clutch – Wade

To me, this is what sets Wade apart from LBJ.  LeBron has made clutch plays from time to time, but Wade has a lot more to show for his crunch time abilities, and has delivered for his team when stakes were high.   Even since his rookie season, he always seemed to have great instincts in clutch situations.  He, unlike LeBron, took his team to the playoffs his rookie season.  Although they were a 4^th seed, most predicted them to lose in the 1^st round to Baron Davis’ Hornets.  In the deciding game of that series, a rookie Wade crossed up the veteran for a series-winning shot.   Talk about immediately making your mark in the league.  Shaq also made note of this after he helped Wade win the 2006 title, saying he was very impressed by Wade’s play in his first playoff series, particularly against a big-name player like Baron Davis.

We saw Wade at his best in the 2006 Finals vs. Dallas, where his Heat team was down double figures and was 6 minutes away from an insurmountable 3-0 series deficit.   The way he willed his team to victory that game, which carried through to the rest of the series, was the most MJ-esque performance I’ve ever seen in the post-Jordan era.  Unfortunately, his teams fell short in the following seasons despite his best efforts.  Even so, he had several memorable performances despite being on a mediocre team.  Remember the ridiculous steal and game-winning three against Chicago a couple years ago in double OT?  Absolutely incredible instincts.  He’s already had a number of career-defining games and has come through in numerous clutch situations.

In just his 3rd NBA season, Wade had one of the greatest Finals MVP performances ever

Since the King is ring-less, the best that NBA promos can do with him is to keep showing the replay of his game-winner vs. Orlando in Game 2 of the 2009 Eastern Conference Finals.  Given how lopsided that series actually was, that clip shouldn’t belong in a montage of clutch shots. It’s just that he doesn’t have any other meaningful ones.  He did make one NBA Finals appearance in 2007, where his Cavs were dominated by San Antonio 4-0 (which very well may have been the most unwatchable Finals series in the history of the NBA).  His one legendary game came one round earlier that year vs. Detroit, where he scored 29 of the Cavs’ final 30 points (and a total of 48) on the Pistons.  But has he had a career defining moment since then?  Not really.

After ‘The Decision,’ one of the 1,000,000 things people criticized LeBron about is the fact that he risked destroying the LeBron “brand” by teaming up with D-Wade.  That is, there would always be the perception that LeBron would be the Robin to Wade’s Batman and couldn’t win a championship as the primary guy.  Thus far, it’s hard to argue that despite LeBron’s current success.  While LeBron is now a favorite to win regular season MVP honors, the jury is still out as to whether he can lead a team to a championship.  As D-Wade’s teammate, he won’t necessarily need to.  

In the end, I can’t see how you can argue against Wade in this one. 

(By the way, in the middle of writing this, LBJ just missed a crucial FT to tie this game vs. Boston with 10 seconds to go.  Right on cue..)

Durability – LeBron

This isn’t even close.  In most eyes, this is really what makes LeBron a more reliable player than D-Wade.  At 6’9” and 250 pounds, LeBron is an absolute tank.  To put it in perspective, Dwight Howard is listed as only 15 pounds heavier.  From a physical standpoint, LeBron is virtually indestructible.  If these guys were both uncanny equals in every single way in terms of talent (and they almost are), LeBron’s invincibility really seals the deal for him.   While Wade has not missed a whole lot of games the past few seasons, the truth is that his fearless play and constant pounding when getting to the rim makes him somewhat injury-prone.  Since injuries are obviously a huge part of the game, this is what makes LBJ a safer bet in terms of career longevity.  Combine this with the fact that Wade is already 29 years old (LBJ is just 26).  Unless he drastically changes his reckless-abandon style, LBJ will, more than likely, play significantly more games than Wade over the course of their careers.

LeBron's physique gives him the ability to posterize opponents at will

Likeability – Wade

Wade haters tend to be those who can’t stand the number of calls he benefits from with the referees.  But overall, that pales in comparison to the nationwide hatred toward LeBron.  Ever since ‘The Decision,’ LeBron has been the league’s #1 villain.  In addition to his faltering effort during crucial playoff games, his sportsmanship (or lack thereof) has been questioned.  This was particularly evident when he refused to shake his opponents’ hands after their Game 6 loss to Orlando in the aforementioned 2009 ECF.  He then declined to speak with the media afterwards.  After Cleveland’s Game 6 loss to Boston in last year’s 2^nd round, LeBron snatched off his Cleveland jersey immediately upon entering the tunnel to the locker room.  All this was before the disastrous 1-hour segment that completely derailed his popularity.  

Also, recall the contract negotiations over the off-season when Wade, LeBron and Bosh decided to team up in Miami.  All three players made significant monetary sacrifices to allow for Pat Riley to put together a decent supporting cast around them.  However, Wade gave up slightly more money to allow for the Heat to re-sign their glue guy and team leader, Udonis Haslem.  Granted the bigger sacrifice was from Haslem, as he accepted $14 mil less than what he would have got from Dallas or Denver.  But there was a good amount of sacrifice from Wade’s end to make it happen.  Even though he is the face of Miami, having put his stamp on the franchise for 7 years, he had no problem being the 3^rd highest paid player on the team behind LeBron and Bosh.  Though all three of those guys deserve credit for taking less money than other max free agents (somehow Joe Johnson signed the fattest contract of all the 2010 free agents - $130 mil), Wade has arguably been the most unselfish. 

Both guys, from what I’ve seen, are very active in the community and have given several generous donations for noble causes, including the Haiti earthquake, victims of Hurricane Katrina, and so on.  Wade, though, has really impressed me with the things he’s done on top of donating cuts of his paycheck.  Take some time to watch these Make-A-Wish special features:  see this first, and then this.  Wade spends a lot of time giving back, being as personable as he can.  I’m not saying LeBron (or any other player) doesn’t do equally generous things for the community, but much has been made of Wade’s generosity to citizens of both Miami and his hometown of Chicago.  To me, he seems very genuine and sincere about giving back.  I remember NBA journeyman Ron Mercer (while helping Hurricane Katrina victims) saying that it’s really easy for players to give money, but the key is to take it a step further by putting in time and effort while giving back.  Wade has definitely taken it a step further than most players. 

On the court, Wade is a fierce competitor.  Still, he is greatly respected by the NBA family and outside communities for all that he does off the court.  If I could hang out with any NBA player for a day, it would be D-Wade.  

Enough talk..Who’s better?

 So who is better?  That depends on the situation and what your team needs are.   Both are extremely efficient and productive players, and obviously are about even in many aspects of the game.  This debate heavily depends on setting:  if it’s a question of endurance - needing someone for long durations and to log heavy minutes during the regular season grind, I’d take LeBron.   If you’re asking who I’d rather have in tight playoff games and crunch time situations, I’d take D-Wade.  

In the end, you can’t go wrong with either player.  This is one of those ongoing debates that may very well never be settled.  As they are both still in the prime of their careers, this discussion has a long way to go.  At gunpoint, who would you take?  If you want to win championships, I would personally pick D-Wade, all things considered.  I know that LeBron has had the better numbers (see the career comparison above).  Remember their days with Team USA?  Wade was clearly the MVP of the 2008 Olympics – just ask his teammates.  Much was made of Kobe’s 4-point play in the Gold Medal game, but Wade was clearly the best and most consistent player on the team.   And although Kobe’s 4 -point play was huge, Wade hit the real dagger in their next possession to seal the win. 

Kobe and LBJ get most of the spotlight, but the humble superstar
to the right deserves it just as much

Bottom line is, Wade has demonstrated a killer instinct that has been unmatched by that of LeBron’s, at least so far.  LBJ has been called out by Cavaliers fans (as well as owner Dan Gilbert) for quitting on his team in several crucial playoff games (most notably Game 6 in the aforementioned 2009 ECF vs. Orlando, and the 2010 2^nd round matchup vs. Boston).  Has anyone ever accused Wade of quitting on his team?  Absolutely not.  Can’t say the same for LBJ.  That’s enough for me to overlook LeBron’s superior durability.  Wade’s winning intangibles have clearly been better to this point.   Ultimately, LeBron’s career will be judged by postseason success.  If the past is indicative of things to come, whatever he does may very well be overshadowed by his dynamic teammate.  LeBron can undoubtedly bring a lot of regular season success, but he has yet to prove he can be a true winner.  In all fairness, he's never been on a great team.  Now, he has no more excuses.

I would suspect that a majority of basketball fans would disagree with me (even at LBJ’s low point popularity-wise), but I know that others wouldn’t.  For example, ESPN’s Skip Bayless has been known to be quite critical of LeBron from Day 1 – calling him a rich, class-less spoiled brat who lacks the killer instinct that the MJs and Kobes of the league have.  Skip took a whole lot of heat for his comments, but I get the feeling that Cleveland fans (and fans throughout the league) no longer find his opinion all that outrageous and have come around.  LBJ gets more TV face-time and is mentioned in many more MVP arguments than Wade, but I think LeBron still has a lot to prove.   

Let’s see what happens in the playoffs. It’ll be interesting to see who the go-to guy is, particularly when games are on the line.  

Season Award Predictions through 50 NBA games

Now that the All-Star teams have been selected, time to look at who’s contending for individual awards now that that we’re at the more-than-midway point of the season.  For each of the awards, I’ll put down contenders, who I think should get it, and who I think will get it.

Most Valuable Player

Contenders: 

LeBron James, Miami Heat

Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls

Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat

Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks

Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets

Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs

Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers

Kevin Durant, OKC Thunder

Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic

Amare Stoudemire, New York

Easily the most debatable award of the 10-11 season, as there’s lots of candidates in this one.  Seemingly every year, a lot of guys have a pretty good case with one or two of them usually standing out.  But this year, there is no clear cut winner.  The Heat have two guys in the top 3 in Hollinger’s Personal Efficiency Ratings (PER) – LeBron and Wade at 1^st and 3^rd, respectively. 

Who I think should win:  Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks

Now, I know this is a bit of a head scratcher.  But hear this:  I have two criteria for separating an MVP from a list of legit contenders: 

1) Player MUST be on a team considered to be a serious title contender.
2) Player is the clear-cut alpha dog carrying his team (i.e. there is a large drop-off to the 2^nd best player on the team).  

Unfortunately, players that satisfy these particular conditions – particularly the 1^st rule – don’t always represent players who mean the most to their team – which is what an MVP award should be.  But looking at the history, this award has generally been awarded to players on title contenders.  At this point in the season, the teams I could foresee being contenders are the following:  Miami, Boston, Chicago, LA, OKC, Dallas, and San Antonio (I’ll explain this, as well as omissions, in another post).  In turn, this weeds out guys like Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Amare Stoudemire on this list (and the reason why we don’t even mention those not on the list, like Steve Nash and Deron Williams) – who are all extremely important and indispensible to their teams.  Team records and championship contention matter.  Period. 

Either D-Wade and LeBron should be co-MVPs, or neither should win

The 2^nd rule eliminates LeBron (who has Wade), Wade (who has LeBron – you know, just to be clear), Manu (Duncan), Kobe (Pau), and Durant (Westbrook).  Having a great 2^nd fiddle dilutes an alpha dog’s accomplishments a little bit, since defenses can’t afford to gear their entire attention toward them.  Obviously, Wade and Lebron have both always been tops in the league in PER even as clear-cut alpha dogs.  While this makes their feat this year that much more impressive, both deserve credit for their team’s success.  Unless voters can vote both of them in as co-MVPs, I can’t vouch for one or the other exclusively. 

Let’s look at Dirk:  he lost arguably the 2^nd best player on his team (Caron Butler) to a season-ending injury.  Hell, he’s even resurrecting Tyson Chandler’s career just by his presence.  Dallas had a horrendous record while he sat out with a sprained knee, forcing him to come back a little early and tough it out for his team.  Remember when Steve Nash’s absences during injury (and subsequent team struggles) sealed his bid for the 2005 MVP award?  Also, unlike the other contenders, none of his teammates are anywhere to be found in the league’s top 40 in PER.  He is the clear alpha-dog on this team, and his absence should bolster his case just as it did for Nash.   Oft criticized and given the ‘soft’ label, Dirk has been remarkably healthy his entire career for a Power Forward.  If he was just a jump shooter, I could get behind that ‘soft’ argument.  But that’s far from the case – he has a complete offensive repertoire both in the post and on dribble penetration.  When he does get injured, he seems to bounce back freakishly quickly – just look back at any ankle injuries he’s had – rarely does he miss much time from those.  I’ve been as hard on Dirk as anyone, particularly during the Mavs’ 2006 collapse vs. D-Wade’s Heat, but this shouldn’t take him out of the running for a regular season award. 

Dirk should get his due for carrying the Mavs

Of course, by saying Dirk qualifies for this award, I’m saying Dallas is a legitimate contender.  I know people struggle with this every year given their recent 1^st round woes, but Dallas still has an outside chance to contend for a title.  I know I said I would explain my reasons for listing contenders, but I’ll briefly explain Dallas’ hopes.  Surprisingly, I could see them making a run if things hold up and they retain the 2^nd seed in the West.   Even without Butler, they have talented perimeter players and plenty of size and depth to surround Dirk.  In fact, this might be Dirk’s most ideal supporting cast he’s ever had.  Not that they’re the most talented teammates he’s had, but they may be the best compliments.  Ugh, this may derail his MVP argument.  Oh well.  Anyway, I’m assuming they would handily defeat a 7^th seed this year (if you recall, they were a 2^nd seed last year, too – except they wound up against San Antonio, which was perhaps the best 7^th seed in playoff history) and be a tough matchup for either LA or OKC.  Can they beat San Antonio?  I’m not sure, but they’ve done it before.

Who I think will win:  LeBron James, Miami Heat

 LeBron and Wade will split a lot of votes (depending what happens the remainder of the season), but votes will not be diluted enough to let one of the other contenders win (since the other contenders will split votes amongst themselves as well).  And because LeBron has a lot of things going for him numbers-wise (he’s #1 in the league in PER, as well) and is Miami could end up being the 1^st seed in the Eastern Conference, he is probably the favorite to win his 3^rd straight MVP award. 

With a 3^rd MVP award, LeBron would join Kareem, MJ, Bill Russell, Wilt, Bird, Magic, and Moses as the only players to accomplish that feat.  That is an incredibly exclusive list, but of course he would be the first from that group to get there without winning a title first.  Does he deserve that honor?  I say not yet.  I personally think Wade would deserve the award as much, if not more than LeBron.  Remember that the Heat played relatively poorly until Wade got his rhythm earlier this season.  But LeBron has the better numbers, and that generally sells the MVP voters.  It is worth noting, though, that Cleveland became the worst team in the league upon LeBron's departure (though Z leaving and Varejao, Parker, and Mo all having injuries didn't help, either).  

I do have one wildcard in the MVP race, though:  Derrick Rose.  If Chicago somehow goes on a tear to finish the season with Noah and Boozer healthy, they would be a dark horse to contend for the title and Rose can win MVP.  Considering the injuries that Noah and Boozer have had, Rose would deserve a ton of credit for what he’s done.  Right now, I think the Bulls are a little too inconsistent to be considered serious contenders.  We also need to see how they mesh with everyone healthy.  We also need to see if Thibodeau wises up and benches Keith Bogans.  Since that’s all up in the air, I’m predicting that LeBron will win.

Rookie of the Year

Contenders:

Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Okay, you get the point.  I dare you to argue with me about this one.  The funny thing is, the only wrench I’ve seen thrown in this argument is saying that Griffin is not really a rookie (he was injured all year last year and couldn’t play).  Umm..OK?  The Rookie of the Year award is the complete opposite of the MVP race, in that there is no race.  I think I’ve already talked about how awesome he’s been in several posts so far, so I need not say more. 

Before I make this one more suspenseful, the winner is…

Who I think should win:  Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

Prediction:  Blake Griffin, LA Clippers

 If this vote isn’t unanimous, someone needs to off anyone who doesn’t vote for him.  No contest whatsoever.

Sixth Man of the year

Contenders:

Jamal Crawford, Atlanta Hawks

Lamar Odom, LA Lakers

Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks

James Harden, OKC Thunder

Who I think should win:  Lamar Odom, LA Lakers

Like every regular season, the Lakers have their ups and downs.  But one of the most consistent guys, ironically, has been Odom this year.  Always a tough matchup for any team’s 1^st and 2^nd units, Odom uses his size and quickness to aid Kobe and Gasol.  This particular year, with Pau’s up-and-down play and the Ron Artest- Matt Barnes tandem being relatively non-existent, Charles Barkley put it best:  Lamar might be the 2^nd best Laker.  For all the criticism they’ve received, LA is still 36-16. 

Who I think will win:  Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks

This is assuming Dallas will have a better record than LA, since LA has a tougher remaining schedule. Terry’s won this award before, and I somehow doubt that Dirk will get the MVP consideration he deserves.  Rick Carlisle probably won’t get Coach of the Year consideration, so I’m guessing the one way they reward Dallas is with this award.  That usually is the case for their regular season success, as their “sixth men” the past several years have contended for the award (Jason Terry, Antoine Walker, Jerry Stackhouse, Antawn Jamison, etc.). 

Coach of the Year

Contenders:

Monty Williams, New Orleans Hornets

Doc Rivers, Boston Celtics

Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat

Nate McMillan, Portland Trailblazers

Greg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs

Who I think should win:  Nate McMillan, Portland Trailblazers

I’ll admit that this is a bit of a pity award for the Blazers.  The league’s most injury ravaged team needs some credit for staying afloat in the playoff race.  Since LaMarcus Aldridge wasn’t given any credit for this (by not being voted onto the All-Star team despite multiple big games so far this season), McMillan should.  You see a lot of teams, when facing injuries, that have the wounded tiger syndrome, where they come together and put together a good stretch.  However, it’s only a matter of time before injury depletion takes its toll.  With the Blazers, McMillan has continued to motivate his players through yet another rough period of injuries.   Take a look at this graphic from last year.  No other team (except maybe last year’s Golden State Warriors) would fill up even ¼ of that chart.  Give McMillan the credit he deserves for continuing to keep his team afloat in the loaded Western Conference despite the injury curse. 

Who I think will win:  Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs

This is contingent upon the Spurs holding the league’s best record.  If that does happen, I wouldn’t be too opposed to this choice.  Amazingly, Popovich has only won the award once despite his immense success with the franchise.  He’s one of the few coaches whose coaching brilliance is taken for granted, along with Phil Jackson and Jerry Sloan (who STILL has never won the award in 20 straight years with Utah).  In the NBA GM’s survey this past offseason, Popovich was voted the best coach at making in-game adjustments.

Given that the Hornets are the only real "surprise" team of the league, first-year head coach Monty Williams could also very well win this award.  Of course, having Chris Paul as your floor general helps, too.  

Most Improved Player

Contenders:

Dorell Wright, Golden State Warriors

JJ Hickson, Cleveland Cavaliers

Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers

Who I think should win:  Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

Who I think will win:  Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves

This is 2^nd least suspenseful award that will be handed out.  Announced as an All-Star reserve, Love is averaging 21.3 ppg and a ridiculous 15.6 rpg.  Last year?  14 ppg and 11 rbg.  To qualitatively state  how much better he is, he only started 22 of 60 games played last year and started all 50 for the Wolves this season.   Granted he plays for the 2^nd worst team in the league, his improvement has been very impressive.  The other three on the list, particularly Wright, have improved considerably as well.  But this is Kevin Love’s breakout year. 

In the end, this is what you get: