Now that the All-Star teams have been selected, time to look at who’s contending for individual awards now that that we’re at the more-than-midway point of the season. For each of the awards, I’ll put down contenders, who I think should get it, and who I think will get it.
Most Valuable Player
Contenders:
LeBron James, Miami Heat
Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Kobe Bryant, LA Lakers
Kevin Durant, OKC Thunder
Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Amare Stoudemire, New York
Easily the most debatable award of the 10-11 season, as there’s lots of candidates in this one. Seemingly every year, a lot of guys have a pretty good case with one or two of them usually standing out. But this year, there is no clear cut winner. The Heat have two guys in the top 3 in Hollinger’s Personal Efficiency Ratings (PER) – LeBron and Wade at 1st and 3rd, respectively.
Who I think should win: Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Now, I know this is a bit of a head scratcher. But hear this: I have two criteria for separating an MVP from a list of legit contenders:
1) Player MUST be on a team considered to be a serious title contender.
2) Player is the clear-cut alpha dog carrying his team (i.e. there is a large drop-off to the 2nd best player on the team).
Unfortunately, players that satisfy these particular conditions – particularly the 1st rule – don’t always represent players who mean the most to their team – which is what an MVP award should be. But looking at the history, this award has generally been awarded to players on title contenders. At this point in the season, the teams I could foresee being contenders are the following: Miami, Boston, Chicago, LA, OKC, Dallas, and San Antonio (I’ll explain this, as well as omissions, in another post). In turn, this weeds out guys like Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Amare Stoudemire on this list (and the reason why we don’t even mention those not on the list, like Steve Nash and Deron Williams) – who are all extremely important and indispensible to their teams. Team records and championship contention matter. Period.
1) Player MUST be on a team considered to be a serious title contender.
2) Player is the clear-cut alpha dog carrying his team (i.e. there is a large drop-off to the 2nd best player on the team).
Unfortunately, players that satisfy these particular conditions – particularly the 1st rule – don’t always represent players who mean the most to their team – which is what an MVP award should be. But looking at the history, this award has generally been awarded to players on title contenders. At this point in the season, the teams I could foresee being contenders are the following: Miami, Boston, Chicago, LA, OKC, Dallas, and San Antonio (I’ll explain this, as well as omissions, in another post). In turn, this weeds out guys like Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, and Amare Stoudemire on this list (and the reason why we don’t even mention those not on the list, like Steve Nash and Deron Williams) – who are all extremely important and indispensible to their teams. Team records and championship contention matter. Period.
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| Either D-Wade and LeBron should be co-MVPs, or neither should win |
The 2nd rule eliminates LeBron (who has Wade), Wade (who has LeBron – you know, just to be clear), Manu (Duncan), Kobe (Pau), and Durant (Westbrook). Having a great 2nd fiddle dilutes an alpha dog’s accomplishments a little bit, since defenses can’t afford to gear their entire attention toward them. Obviously, Wade and Lebron have both always been tops in the league in PER even as clear-cut alpha dogs. While this makes their feat this year that much more impressive, both deserve credit for their team’s success. Unless voters can vote both of them in as co-MVPs, I can’t vouch for one or the other exclusively.
Let’s look at Dirk: he lost arguably the 2nd best player on his team (Caron Butler) to a season-ending injury. Hell, he’s even resurrecting Tyson Chandler’s career just by his presence. Dallas had a horrendous record while he sat out with a sprained knee, forcing him to come back a little early and tough it out for his team. Remember when Steve Nash’s absences during injury (and subsequent team struggles) sealed his bid for the 2005 MVP award? Also, unlike the other contenders, none of his teammates are anywhere to be found in the league’s top 40 in PER. He is the clear alpha-dog on this team, and his absence should bolster his case just as it did for Nash. Oft criticized and given the ‘soft’ label, Dirk has been remarkably healthy his entire career for a Power Forward. If he was just a jump shooter, I could get behind that ‘soft’ argument. But that’s far from the case – he has a complete offensive repertoire both in the post and on dribble penetration. When he does get injured, he seems to bounce back freakishly quickly – just look back at any ankle injuries he’s had – rarely does he miss much time from those. I’ve been as hard on Dirk as anyone, particularly during the Mavs’ 2006 collapse vs. D-Wade’s Heat, but this shouldn’t take him out of the running for a regular season award.
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| Dirk should get his due for carrying the Mavs |
Of course, by saying Dirk qualifies for this award, I’m saying Dallas is a legitimate contender. I know people struggle with this every year given their recent 1st round woes, but Dallas still has an outside chance to contend for a title. I know I said I would explain my reasons for listing contenders, but I’ll briefly explain Dallas’ hopes. Surprisingly, I could see them making a run if things hold up and they retain the 2nd seed in the West. Even without Butler, they have talented perimeter players and plenty of size and depth to surround Dirk. In fact, this might be Dirk’s most ideal supporting cast he’s ever had. Not that they’re the most talented teammates he’s had, but they may be the best compliments. Ugh, this may derail his MVP argument. Oh well. Anyway, I’m assuming they would handily defeat a 7th seed this year (if you recall, they were a 2nd seed last year, too – except they wound up against San Antonio, which was perhaps the best 7th seed in playoff history) and be a tough matchup for either LA or OKC. Can they beat San Antonio? I’m not sure, but they’ve done it before.
Who I think will win: LeBron James, Miami Heat
LeBron and Wade will split a lot of votes (depending what happens the remainder of the season), but votes will not be diluted enough to let one of the other contenders win (since the other contenders will split votes amongst themselves as well). And because LeBron has a lot of things going for him numbers-wise (he’s #1 in the league in PER, as well) and is Miami could end up being the 1st seed in the Eastern Conference, he is probably the favorite to win his 3rd straight MVP award.
With a 3rd MVP award, LeBron would join Kareem, MJ, Bill Russell, Wilt, Bird, Magic, and Moses as the only players to accomplish that feat. That is an incredibly exclusive list, but of course he would be the first from that group to get there without winning a title first. Does he deserve that honor? I say not yet. I personally think Wade would deserve the award as much, if not more than LeBron. Remember that the Heat played relatively poorly until Wade got his rhythm earlier this season. But LeBron has the better numbers, and that generally sells the MVP voters. It is worth noting, though, that Cleveland became the worst team in the league upon LeBron's departure (though Z leaving and Varejao, Parker, and Mo all having injuries didn't help, either).
I do have one wildcard in the MVP race, though: Derrick Rose. If Chicago somehow goes on a tear to finish the season with Noah and Boozer healthy, they would be a dark horse to contend for the title and Rose can win MVP. Considering the injuries that Noah and Boozer have had, Rose would deserve a ton of credit for what he’s done. Right now, I think the Bulls are a little too inconsistent to be considered serious contenders. We also need to see how they mesh with everyone healthy. We also need to see if Thibodeau wises up and benches Keith Bogans. Since that’s all up in the air, I’m predicting that LeBron will win.
Rookie of the Year
Contenders:
Blake Griffin, LA Clippers
Blake Griffin, LA Clippers
Blake Griffin, LA Clippers
Okay, you get the point. I dare you to argue with me about this one. The funny thing is, the only wrench I’ve seen thrown in this argument is saying that Griffin is not really a rookie (he was injured all year last year and couldn’t play). Umm..OK? The Rookie of the Year award is the complete opposite of the MVP race, in that there is no race. I think I’ve already talked about how awesome he’s been in several posts so far, so I need not say more.
Before I make this one more suspenseful, the winner is…
Who I think should win: Blake Griffin, LA Clippers
Prediction: Blake Griffin, LA Clippers
If this vote isn’t unanimous, someone needs to off anyone who doesn’t vote for him. No contest whatsoever.
Sixth Man of the year
Contenders:
Jamal Crawford, Atlanta Hawks
Lamar Odom, LA Lakers
Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks
James Harden, OKC Thunder
Who I think should win: Lamar Odom, LA Lakers
Like every regular season, the Lakers have their ups and downs. But one of the most consistent guys, ironically, has been Odom this year. Always a tough matchup for any team’s 1st and 2nd units, Odom uses his size and quickness to aid Kobe and Gasol. This particular year, with Pau’s up-and-down play and the Ron Artest- Matt Barnes tandem being relatively non-existent, Charles Barkley put it best: Lamar might be the 2nd best Laker. For all the criticism they’ve received, LA is still 36-16.
Who I think will win: Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks
This is assuming Dallas will have a better record than LA, since LA has a tougher remaining schedule. Terry’s won this award before, and I somehow doubt that Dirk will get the MVP consideration he deserves. Rick Carlisle probably won’t get Coach of the Year consideration, so I’m guessing the one way they reward Dallas is with this award. That usually is the case for their regular season success, as their “sixth men” the past several years have contended for the award (Jason Terry, Antoine Walker, Jerry Stackhouse, Antawn Jamison, etc.).
Coach of the Year
Contenders:
Monty Williams, New Orleans Hornets
Doc Rivers, Boston Celtics
Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat
Nate McMillan, Portland Trailblazers
Greg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs
Who I think should win: Nate McMillan, Portland Trailblazers
I’ll admit that this is a bit of a pity award for the Blazers. The league’s most injury ravaged team needs some credit for staying afloat in the playoff race. Since LaMarcus Aldridge wasn’t given any credit for this (by not being voted onto the All-Star team despite multiple big games so far this season), McMillan should. You see a lot of teams, when facing injuries, that have the wounded tiger syndrome, where they come together and put together a good stretch. However, it’s only a matter of time before injury depletion takes its toll. With the Blazers, McMillan has continued to motivate his players through yet another rough period of injuries. Take a look at this graphic from last year. No other team (except maybe last year’s Golden State Warriors) would fill up even ¼ of that chart. Give McMillan the credit he deserves for continuing to keep his team afloat in the loaded Western Conference despite the injury curse.
Who I think will win: Gregg Popovich, San Antonio Spurs
This is contingent upon the Spurs holding the league’s best record. If that does happen, I wouldn’t be too opposed to this choice. Amazingly, Popovich has only won the award once despite his immense success with the franchise. He’s one of the few coaches whose coaching brilliance is taken for granted, along with Phil Jackson and Jerry Sloan (who STILL has never won the award in 20 straight years with Utah). In the NBA GM’s survey this past offseason, Popovich was voted the best coach at making in-game adjustments.
Given that the Hornets are the only real "surprise" team of the league, first-year head coach Monty Williams could also very well win this award. Of course, having Chris Paul as your floor general helps, too.
Given that the Hornets are the only real "surprise" team of the league, first-year head coach Monty Williams could also very well win this award. Of course, having Chris Paul as your floor general helps, too.
Most Improved Player
Contenders:
Dorell Wright, Golden State Warriors
JJ Hickson, Cleveland Cavaliers
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers
Who I think should win: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
Who I think will win: Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
This is 2nd least suspenseful award that will be handed out. Announced as an All-Star reserve, Love is averaging 21.3 ppg and a ridiculous 15.6 rpg. Last year? 14 ppg and 11 rbg. To qualitatively state how much better he is, he only started 22 of 60 games played last year and started all 50 for the Wolves this season. Granted he plays for the 2nd worst team in the league, his improvement has been very impressive. The other three on the list, particularly Wright, have improved considerably as well. But this is Kevin Love’s breakout year.
In the end, this is what you get:
7 comments:
I didn't get a chance to read the whole thing 'cause I'm at work, but great job Vijay. You basketball knowledge is second to none. Wait, make that second to me, but still you know your hoops. Well done son.
Good post. That MVP race is a hard one to pick. I don't think Lebron or Wade should get it..I don't really like Dirk for it either. I hate to say it because I really don't like him, but I think its Derrick Rose right now. He's got the Bulls playing well with injuries to Boozer/Noah and he stepped up his game this year. I guess I couldn't argue with Dirk either because there really isn't a clear cut 2nd guy on that team. Eveyone else seems to be an average-slightly above average player. He does have Jason Kidd who still makes some nice plays and is a pretty good outside shooter.
ROY is Blake. MIP Kevin Love. I would also go Pop for COY.
I also like Lamar Odom for 6th man. I think he's really underrated for that team
Unrelated note: Are TV announcers supposed to call the game objectively? Anytime NbaTV cuts to a Miami Heat game I want to fly down to Miami and punch these announcers in the neck. They seem like they are really rooting the team to win and blowing up the players like only a fan would. I remember one game against Atlanta, these guys were making Joel Anthony out to be the best rebounder since rodman. They called it a historic rebounding performance (I think he finished the game with 16 rebounds) and were constantly praising the guy. The guy is just not a very good player! Sorry for the rant, those guys really annoy me.
Also missing from the contenders for COY is Tom Thibadeau from Chicago..maybe my pick for COY actually
For your MVP pick, yeah the reasons you said are why Rose is a sleeper pick for me. There's no doubt he would be worthy of the award, it's just that I think Dirk and his Mavs having a great regular season is taken for granted. But if the Bulls somehow climb up the standings, that could change my mind.
True that Thibodeau is a COY candidate, but because the Bulls are always expected to be among the East's elite, I can't pick him. For me, it's about team expecations. The Blazers have absolutely no business being in the playoff race out West, which is why I picked McMillan. Then again, some said the Spurs would miss the playoffs altogether, much less expected them to have the best record in the league.
The Miami announcers are actually not as bad as a couple homer-announcers. Bill Laimbeer (Detroit) is one of the most biased color commentators I've ever seen, as is Tom Heinsohn (Boston).
saying the Bulls are ALWAYS expected to be among the East's elite is a stretch...and what other coach would start Bogans and consistently win. joking aside, come one Jamal Crawford for 6th man
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