Can anyone beat the Lakers?

On Pardon the Interruption (PTI) yesterday, Kobe was on ‘Five Good Minutes,’ something I admittedly only pay attention to when an NBA representative is on it.  He was relaxed the whole time, and was completely unfazed by any questions that Wilbon and Kornheiser threw at him.  Everyone who knows me is completely aware of how often I criticize the guy for his general off-court demeanor, but I have to admit that his interviewing skills are superior to that of some of his All-Star peers (cough cough, LeBron).  No matter what turmoil the Lakers have gone through this year, he’s been cool, calm, and collected all season.  He, more than any of the other Lakers, never panicked during their early regular season struggles, and they have only lost ONCE since the All-Star break (16-1).

With the Spurs struggling with injuries to their Big 3, they may very well basically run the table the rest of the regular season and sit atop the Western Conference.  Kobe and Gasol have been elite players all year long, but the difference lately has been the contributions of the supporting cast.  Even much-maligned Ron Artest has been playing his best basketball all season, particularly in the last 3-4 weeks.  Andrew Bynum, while not fully healthy, has been on a tear on the glass.  Few have been rebounding the ball as well as him of late; only Dwight Howard, Kevin Love, and Kris Humphries (shameless plug on my part, but the best fantasy waiver wire pick-up of the year!) have averaged more rebounds than him in the last 30 games.  That’s just their starting five.  Adding to the mix is Lamar Odom, who I still think should win the Sixth Man award this year.  With so many weapons, it’s hard to dispute the Lakers’ likelihood for a three-peat.  

Nobody looks better heading into April than Kobe and the Lakers

So who can beat them?  Here are the top 5 teams that are best suited to face L.A.  Note that this is not necessarily my list of the top 5 teams of the NBA (behind LA), although this closely resembles that.

5 – Chicago Bulls

Rose would have to be beyond outstanding to beat LA

No one can deny the quality of this team and its outstanding run to the top of the East standings.  Somehow, they are still somewhat under the radar; most are still picking Miami or Boston to win the East when all is said and done.  I hate to sell them short by seconding that thought, but I really don’t think the Bulls are seasoned enough to take down the veteran teams of the league – including LA.  Do they match up well with the Lakers?  Yes and no.  Rose and Noah will obviously give the Lakers trouble, but ultimately the Lakers will exploit weaknesses of their teammates in a 7-game series.  Boozer isn’t exactly an elite defender, and he will struggle mightily against Pau Gasol (just as he always has in a Jazz uniform).  Eventually in a series, LA would clamp down on D-Rose and force the other Bulls to score.  I just don’t see enough offensive firepower on Chicago – with no scoring wingmen to complement Rose and little chance that Boozer and Noah will consistently produce against the Lakers’ front line – to punish that defensive strategy.  Ultimately, Rose would have to average 40+ points and 15+ assists for this year’s team to win a series against the Lakers.

I don’t think this is their year to beat LA.  In addition their inexperience in later playoff rounds, their weaknesses may be too hard to overcome.  But as they continue to grow and add more pieces, their chances to win next year and beyond will be a different story.

4 – Boston Celtics

The Celtics still look distraught without Nate around to cheer them up

Two words describe why the Celtics are this low on the list:  Kendrick Perkins.  I’ve said repeatedly that this trade was, in my mind, the death of the Celtics “dynasty.”  I can’t trust today’s Shaq to stay healthy, much less to bang bodies with Bynum and Gasol (what has he played, like 10 games all season?).   The Perkins/Robinson trade has scarred the Celtics both from a basketball and camaraderie standpoint, and I really don’t have a good feeling about them heading into the playoffs.  Don’t forget that Nate Robinson changed the dynamics of last year’s playoff run as well, and their current backup point guards (Delonte West, Carlos Arroyo) will be asked to fill his shoes.  I don’t think they are nearly as effective of backups to Rajon Rondo as Nate was, not to mention that Nate was a great presence with his positive attitude both on the court, the sidelines, and in the locker room.  Can’t really count on Delonte to be very positive and encouraging.

Still, the Big 4 is still there.  If the team stops being so sour over the loss of Perk, they can get their act together and still be a very tough out in the playoffs.  If both O’Neals get healthy by then, that could offset the loss of Perkins and they might have enough depth on their front line to be able to help contain Bynum and Gasol.   Coach Doc Rivers has generally drawn up some decent defensive schemes against Kobe (remember Kobe’s miserable 6-24 shooting in Game 7 last year?), and has the personnel to make it tough for him with several solid perimeter defenders on the wing.  Then there’s Kevin Garnett, who of course is the anchor to their suffocating defense. 

In the end, I just can’t help but think the loss of Perkins will hurt them.  They were clearly at a level higher than the rest of the Eastern Conference, but now the playing field has been leveled.  Of course, their loss is another team’s gain…

3 – Oklahoma City Thunder

KD and Westbrook will do their thing, but they need help
from everyone else to beat the Lakers

Visualizing an OKC-LA matchup immediately brings last year’s intense first round matchup between the two teams to mind.  Other than Boston, the young and athletic Thunder team was LA’s toughest opponent last year.  This year, it’s easy to see Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook dominating their respective matchups in another series, as they’ve only gotten better since last year (especially Westbrook, who absolutely lit up the Lakers a year ago).  But their supporting cast and size will also be a formidable match for that of LA’s.  In Perkins, they gained the toughness and interior defense that Boston will sorely miss.  In the limited number of games he’s played for OKC thus far, he and Serge Ibaka have been dominant on the glass.  As Perk gets more comfortable, their frontcourt will be tough to score on.  In the backcourt, Thabo Sefolosha is a vastly underrated perimeter defender and will seldom need any help guarding Kobe.   James Harden has been a solid sixth man for the team as well.  Harden took on a bigger scoring load for the team after Jeff Green’s departure, averaging about 17 points per game on nearly 50% shooting – being just as efficient with increased minutes. 

For most of this season, the Thunder regressed noticeably on the defensive end; they rank 13^th in Hollinger’s Defensive Efficiency rankings this season, and consider that this rating has been somewhat inflated since trading for Perkins.  They were only 8^th last year, but really peaked in defensive cohesion toward the end of the season and into the playoffs. 

While they have all the tools to beat LA, I just haven’t seen the consistency and growth in them this year to de-throne the Lakers.  While their defense has picked back up since trading for Perkins, it’s still not at the level it was last year.  It will take some time for the new acquisitions to get adjusted to Scott Brooks’ system.  Generally, it takes a while for a team to gel after a big trade.  Much like the case with Chicago, I just don’t think the young Thunder are seasoned enough as a team to beat the champs quite yet. 

2 – Dallas Mavericks

I know, I know.  You’re thinking, “No #@#$ing way these historically underachieving Mavs can beat LA!”    Everyone knows about their ongoing struggles in the playoffs, losing to San Antonio.  The last thing Mavs fans need are reminders of their playoff disappointments.  Here’s a summary of them, anyway.  I tried categorized them by the quality of their playoff runs:  green for a solid year, red for a terribly disappointing showing, and orange for a so-so one.

Here’s what I think:  given their playoff history, the well-documented mental fragility of the Mavericks is very valid.  But I’ll give you one good reason why you shouldn’t be too quick to dismiss the Mavs’ chances over LA.  Take a look at all the teams they lost to over the years in the table above.  It’s important to note that NEVER in the Kobe-led Laker era and the Dirk-led Mavs era have LA and Dallas squared off in the playoffs.  NEVER.  Consider how amazing that is:  the Mavs have made the playoffs every year since 2000, and the Lakers have obviously have made their fair share of playoff appearances as well during the last decade or so, by winning 5 titles in that same time period.  In a playoff bracket of eight teams every year, and seemingly the same playoff matchups every year in the same conference (e.g. Spurs-Lakers, Spurs-Mavs, Mavs-Suns, Lakers-Suns), it’s very odd.  How have they NEVER met?  Because we’ve never seen these two teams meet in the playoffs, it’s hard to tell what the complexion of that playoff series would be like.  Now, if the Lakers and Dallas end up as the 2^nd and 3^rd seeds (regardless of order), they will FINALLY get to face each other in the 2^nd round, presumably speaking given that playoff seeding. 

When flying under the radar, the Mavs can play
 well against the league's top teams.

Regarding the mental fragility of the Mavs, they have clearly been labeled the team that can’t get over the hump regardless of their regular season success.  But they seem to do worse when they’re the favorites.  Their run to the NBA Finals in 2006 started when most thought of them as a middle-of-the-pack team.  They don’t respond as well when the pressure is on them to win; they were heavy favorites to beat Miami in the Finals.  The following season, they dominated the NBA and won 67 games.  They were a title favorite heading into their matchup with the 8^th seeded Golden State Warriors, then, well… you know the rest.  Point is, they play better when the pressure is off.  In the years they were one of the lower seeds (6-8), they tend to struggle.  But those seasons were more so a result of mediocre or injury-depleted rosters.   But as an underdog yet quality contender?  I like their chances.  Overshadowed by the loss to Miami that year is their impressive and hard-fought victory over the Spurs in 7 games, when their chances against the favored San Antonio team was outright dismissed at the time.  If the Mavs have the talent to contend (they do), they will play far better as a team under the radar as opposed to a team favored to win.

Now that I broke down some of the intangibles and the Mavs psyche heading into the postseason, let’s look at this matchup from a basketball perspective.  The one difference between this Mavs squad and those of previous years is their size.  Between Tyson Chandler and Brendan Haywood, this team has the size and interior toughness to muscle around with the Laker bigs.  No one remembers this, but Dirk actually matches up very well against Pau Gasol (go back to the 2006 1^st round matchup when Dirk’s Mavs swept Gasol’s Memphis Grizzlies, who were no slouches by any means).  Seemingly every year, they are a deep team with multiple scorers coming off the bench.  This year’s team is no exception – Jason Terry is playing well as he’s ever been, and is the favorite for this year’s Sixth Man award.  He’s also very clutch, always among the top 10 in the league in terms of 4^th quarter scoring.  If Caron Butler is able to come back from his regular season-ending knee injury, this team has the size, depth, and scoring ability best suited to take down LA.  Every playoff series come down to matchups, and I think Dallas matches up very well with the Lakers.  We just haven’t been able to truly witness that yet. 

Even when Dallas is favored, Mavs fans can't exhale

Having said all that, beyond being basically tailor-made to beat the Lakers, I still can’t see them going all the way to win the title.  Even if they get by LA in a notional 2^nd round matchup, there’s no guarantee they would overcome their history of playoff collapses in order to go on and win the championship.  That has to be disheartening for Mavs fans, as Dallas is the one great team that you can never bank on to win a playoff matchup against a quality team, against both superior and inferior opponents.  For the sake of Mark Cuban, Dirk and the players, and the Mavs’ fan base, I’m pulling for Dallas to finally have a breakthrough playoff year.  As far as I’m concerned, it’s now or never; their core of Kidd, Nowitzki, Chandler, Marion and Terry is not getting any younger.

We get to see a preview of these two teams on TNT Thursday night, but I would take the result of that game with a big grain of salt.  The Mavs will be the first to tell you that the playoff atmosphere is completely different from that of the regular season.  But what separates them from the teams below them on this list is their combination of scoring, size, depth, and veteran experience.  But even that might not be enough to shed their playoff curse.  Their annual playoff disappointments, by the way, are the only reason why I’m putting them behind the team who I think is best-suited to beat LA…

1 – Miami Heat

As mentioned earlier, playoffs come down to matchups.  On top of their losses in both matchups with Miami this season, they seem to have struggled with LeBron-led teams the past few seasons;  LeBron’s Cleveland team had their number last year as well.  Ron Artest may be the one of the most frustrating players to play against in the NBA, but not for a guy who’s just as big and strong as he is. Nobody has had more success against the Lakers than LeBron, who has dominated the Lakers as much as anyone with his all-around play.  Look at his last four games vs. LA:

  

If Kobe has trouble guarding D-Wade,
Miami should give the Lakers fits

Then there’s the always-intriguing Kobe-Wade matchup.  I’ve always argued that Wade may be the best Kobe-defender in the league, and the Heat’s last two games vs. LA reflected this.  At this phase of their careers, Wade seems to be a step ahead of Kobe on both ends of the court.  This was particularly evident in their last matchup earlier this month, with Wade making clutch plays both on defense when guarding Kobe and offensively while being guarded by him.  If LBJ and Chris Bosh continue to produce at a very high level (as they have been lately) and the sharp shooters (Mike Bibby, James Jones, and Mike Miller) are on, Wade won’t need to conserve energy on the defensive end in order to carry the scoring load. 

Obviously it will take more than just LeBron and D-Wade to beat a stacked Laker team.  With Bosh finding his groove with the team, the even the Lakers will find them very, very tough to guard.  Furthermore, if they impose their will and speed up the tempo of the game, they can definitely give the Lakers fits – especially if they create easy transition plays with their defense like they did in their regular season matchups.  They are going to need to be a scrappy team to overcome LA's size advantage.  Overall, if LeBron displays his usual dominance vs. the Lakers and defers to Wade as the closer, I think Miami has the best chance to take down the two-time defending champs. 

This is not to say they are favorites to win the title – of course they need to get through the East first.  Will that happen?  I’m not so sure yet.  I’ll get back to that later as the playoffs get closer. 

So, back to the question at hand:  can anyone beat LA in a 7-game series?  Yes.  Will they?  We will see.. 

Why the NBA is better than College Basketball

As the first weekend of March Madness comes to a close, I thought this would be an appropriate topic.  A few years ago, Skip Bayless wrote this very comprehensive article on why he prefers the NBA over college.  Granted he was wrong about the star potential of a few elite college players (e.g. Chris Paul, Deron Williams).  Still, he’s still dead on in the sense that the format, rules, and superior players make the NBA much more appealing.   Give that a quick read before reading the rest of my post.

Now, all the reasons Skip listed are among the many as to why I can’t get into college basketball.  Basketball is by far my favorite sport, and I still have trouble watching college games.  Unless you’re a die-hard fan of a particular team, I just can’t see why people are so into it.  I’ve heard many common arguments in favor of college basketball that I will cover below.

First, let’s cover the differences that even college fanatics and NBA enthusiasts, like me, will agree on:

FACT:  Many great college players do not evolve into great professional players. 

I just can’t help but remember but go back to the 2006 NBA Draft:  Dick Vitale was getting over-the-top excited over Player of the Year contenders Adam Morrison and JJ Redick becoming lottery draft picks (Morrison at 3^rd to the Bobcats, Redick at 11^th to the Magic).  Vitale went on and on about why great college players will make great NBA players, and that they deserve getting drafted early.  Of course you know the rest:  despite illustrious college careers, both Morrison and Redick turned out to be average players at best.  Redick has somewhat turned his career around, becoming a regular in Stan Van Gundy’s lineup rotation.  Sadly, the immense fall from grace has been a reality for most young star athletes going to the pros. 

More often than not, successful college players
struggle in the NBA

Think about that, though.  Some college basketball fans I’ve talked to have told me that they enjoy seeing less gifted players being able to have a big impact on a game.  Really?!  Is that why college ball is more appealing to some people?  Because guys with less talent have a better chance to be great in college?  Is it inspiring?  I don’t get it. Whether you're talking about Redick, Morrison, or Christian Laettner, college success does not always translate to the big leagues.  

FACT:  College fans are better

This is the one advantage of college teams I have to concede:  college fans are far better – more enthusiastic, more genuine, and more supportive of their teams.  In the eyes of many, this adds to the overall “excitement” of college basketball.  But for me, this should be completely independent of the game itself.  In the end, does the involvement of the crowd make me like the college game more?  Of course not.  Plus, I find it a whole lot easier to root for a team that plays for your school rather than your hometown. 

Everyone in agreement so far?  Let’s go over some of the common myths of college basketball:

MYTH:  College basketball is more exciting than NBA basketball.

FACT:  College basketball games are mired by poor decision making and all-around awful execution.

This is my main beef against college hoops:  the level of play.  Now obviously, professionals are better players than amateurs; that’s not the basis of my argument.  The college game’s nature of poor decision making, questionable shot selection, and lack of poise down the stretch of games allow for many close games.  But does this really help the quality of college basketball?  College basketball games, much more so than NBA games, seem to come down to crucial mistakes as opposed to brilliant play-making. 

There are so many examples to support this that I don’t even know where to start.  Let’s take this year’s opening weekend of March Madness, for example.  One of the most “exciting” games so far was Butler’s upset win over No. 1 seed Pittsburgh.  Take a look at the end of this game.  Every March Madness enthusiast raved about the excitement of this game.  Not unlike many close games, this really came down to one mind-numbing, knuckle-headed play after another.  Missing crucial free-throws, blowing big leads, committing horrendous fouls, taking bad shots – NBA coaches would have multiple heart attacks coaching these guys. 

Missing crucial free throws seems to be a common theme in basketball, but MUCH more prevalent in the college game.  It almost seems like there’s an unwritten rule mandating players to miss free throws in any close game.  Some college fans find that this phenomenon adds to the excitement and unpredictability of the game, but that’s one of the many wrong reasons to like college ball.  I’d love to get a hold of stats that show free throw percentages of college players in the last 2 minutes of games versus that of NBA players.  Part of it is inexperience in intense situations.  Also in college, the one-and-one penalty situation puts a lot more pressure on players to make their free throws, as one missed free throw essentially becomes a turnover.  But I enjoy seeing players with poise that can ice games by knocking down crucial free throws.

College players hustle, but many seldom exhibit court smarts

NCAA enthusiasts rave about the plethora of come-from-behind efforts by many teams.  But consider how many times you see that happen in college hoops.  I’ll give you one more example:  in the ACC tournament, Miami blew a 19 point second-half lead against the UNC Tar Heels.  But it wasn’t because of any brilliant playmaking by UNC; if you watch the highlights, in addition to missing free throws, Miami basically threw the ball away on multiple possessions in a row.  They also committed several head-scratching fouls.  Complete collapses like this never happen in the NBA.  It’s far from fun to watch, because it just gets to a point where you wish teams wouldn’t beat themselves so often. 

The truth is, the college game is very error prone, driven by players with poor decision making skills and shot selection.  Of course, this allows for many close finishes to games.  But again – all for the wrong reasons.  You can almost never count on college teams to make good decisions down the stretch. 

MYTH: March Madness is so much more exciting than the NBA Playoffs

FACT:   The tournament has a very unpredictable opening – yes – but it’s usually anticlimactic.

This is the most common misconception.  The format of the NCAA Tournament, in my opinion, really hurts college basketball.  In the NBA, the best teams always square off – more often than not.  As Charles Barkley says – in a 7-game playoff series, the better team always wins.  I would say that’s true about 99% of the time, which is obviously a lot more often than you can say about the later rounds of the NCAA tournament.  There’s less flukes, obviously, but I would personally much rather have better teams face each other when the stakes are high.  Many complain about the lack of upsets in the NBA Playoffs, with dominant teams like the Bulls, Lakers, and Spurs always winning.  But in NBA Playoff basketball, it’s a guarantee to see fantastic matchups and rivalries unfold. You're guaranteed to see a Laker-Spurs, Celtics-Bulls, Celtics-Heat, or any matchup between elite teams.  In the NCAA, not so much.  You can have a 'Cinderella' team like George Mason make the Final 4 (2006), only to get overwhelmed by a superior team and the tournament results in having anticlimactic final rounds.  

In the NBA, there's a much better chance for the
top teams to match up in the final rounds

As welcoming as it is to welcome 65 teams in the tournament, this is a poor method to weed out the weaker teams of the NCAA and have the strongest teams go head-to-head.  As a result of the current 65-team format, college games obviously tend to have many David-and-Goliath matchups that can be particularly appealing to some folks.   Because it’s a one-and-done format, any team can beat anybody on any given day.  This makes the first weekend of the tournament particularly exciting, as there is one nail-biter after another.  But would you rather have great opening rounds, or better finishing ones?  Would you rather see the Dukes, UNCs, Kentuckys, and Kansases of the NCAA square off in the later rounds of the Big Dance?  Or would you rather see a ‘Cinderella Story’ team make the Final 4?  I prefer the former. 

While upsets are rare in the NBA, they are much
more meaningful when they happen.

In the NBA, upsets DO happen.  And because it’s so much tougher to make it happen, that makes upsets way more meaningful.  Remember in 2007, when the 8^th seeded Golden State Warriors took down the Dallas Mavericks – the league’s best team at the time?  That was much more spectacular than any upset in NCAA history, simply because of the incredibly difficult feat of defeating a Goliath team 4 times in 7 games. 

The NBA does it right:  weed out the pretenders early on to set up heavy-weight slugfests going at it for the title.  The anti-climactic nature of the NCAA tournament sets everyone up for early gratification, but disappointing endings.  The NCAA tournament gives more hope to the underdogs, but do you really want to see underdogs get lucky against a top team only to get blown out by superior teams in later rounds? 

MYTH:  College players have more heart than money-hungry professional players.

FACT:  Both leagues have its share of hypocritical players and those who genuinely care.

With so many sports programs like Jim Tressel's Ohio State
football team under investigation, is the NBA really that corrupt
in comparison?

Hypocrisy will corrupt anybody’s joy and enthusiasm for any sport; just look at the MLB and its ongoing steroid controversies.  Yes, hypocrisy exists in all forms of every organized sport.  But in the NCAA’s case, it seems that part of the recruiting routine of every high-profile program involves “illegal” bribery.  It’s all a domino effect:  it starts from doing whatever it takes to get great talent, and from there, future great players will want to go to your school.  Given that recruiting comes out of a school’s budget, many bigger schools have a distinct advantage – which is why the Dukes, UNCs, etc. always seem to recruit the best players.  When great players go to big schools, it inspires future great players to go to those schools.  In turn, school reputation becomes a huge factor for every young prospect deciding where to go to school.  The reality is that most big programs use every shady, dirty tactic in the book to land superstars. 

When it comes to recruiting, teams try to do whatever
it takes to get the nation's top players like C-Webb

As for those who support the “genuine-ness” of college basketball, I’m afraid that’s very deceiving.  Even if you ignore all the scandals out there, college players essentially DO get paid for their services.  In a country where the cost of education is rising exponentially, you cannot understate how valuable college scholarships are.  Add that to whatever gifts and preferential treatment they get from all the shady scandals on top of the free ride, and you get players who are almost as spoiled as the millionaire professional athletes. 

I’m not necessarily saying that college athletes have no heart.  In reality, you can’t really blame the kids for falling for bribes; if you’re a high school kid from an impoverished family, you don’t know any better – you’ll do whatever it takes, in turn, to look out for yourself and your family.  As much as Derrick Rose, Chris Webber, and many others get criticized for unfair advantages they may have had, you can’t really blame 17-18 year old kids for looking out for their own well-being and being tricked by team officials. They don’t know any better.  The blame should be placed on those offering the bribes:  athletic directors, coaches, and everybody on the college athletic programs.  Since that’s part of the reality of college sports, the college game is anything but genuine compared to the NBA.  Is there corruption in the NBA?  Of course there is.  But the NCAA may be even more accountable.

In fairness to the players, they don’t make a fair share of what the NCAA profits from.  The NCAA makes untold boat loads of money, and don’t give enough to its players.  The fact that the NCAA can profit off of the players, and not give them a fair share, adds to the hypocrisy of college basketball.  The NBA is a player's league, while the NCAA is a school for profit-seeking schools and power-hungry coaches.

MYTH:  The rules of college basketball allow for a more exciting game than the NBA.

FACT:  The rules of college basketball slow the game down drastically.

The watch-ability of college basketball is greatly hindered by many of its own rules and omissions.  Here are some of the main rules in NCAA hoops that should be changed that, in turn, would improve the game:

1)      The 35-second shot clock

      This is the single most perplexing rule I think the college game has.  35 seconds is so long that you hardly ever see college teams strategize or utilize the clock properly.  The shot clock becomes a non-factor in that sense, leading to many low-scoring games.  You end up seeing teams waste their time running tons of offensive sets from well beyond the 3-point line – especially with teams without any dominant creators or post-up scorers (most of the country).  In the NBA, teams only have 24 seconds to shoot, and only 8 of those 24 seconds to get the ball across the half court.  In turn, that forces teams to push the pace and run their offensive sets quickly. With a 35-second shot clock, the college game suffers and the pace gets much, much slower.  Hell, even the WNBA changed their shot clock from 30 to 24 seconds to make their game a bit more exciting. 

2)      Five Fouls to DQ/Two-halves game format­

Many have uttered that college players should be allowed to commit 6 fouls before fouling out of a game.  The combination of both having only 5 fouls to give and the NCAA format really hurts the game.  The college game is 40 minutes compared to the NBA’s 48.  But instead of 4 10-minute quarters, the NCAA opted to play two 20-minute halves.  This directly results in the main impediment that NCAA bigs have – not being able to stay in the game.  Often in games do the big guys commit two early fouls.  As a result, they’re forced to sit out the entire first half.  This really changes the complexion of the game and takes away from the impact that bigs have in these tournament games.  Most college big men, as a result, can’t be very aggressive early in games. 

3)      Inability to advance the ball to half-court after a timeout (in the final minutes of a game)

Last year, when Butler had a chance to beat heavily favored Duke for the NCAA title, imagine what they could have drawn up if they didn’t have to get the ball up the court.  Gordon Hayward nearly drained a half-court shot, but what if he didn’t have shave off precious seconds off the clock to scramble up court?  We’ll never know.  Being able to advance the ball to half court late in games adds another dimension that would make for many more great finishes.  On offense, it really brings out creativity for a coach to draw up a last-second play in their own front-court.  As a defending team, you’re forced to strategize on the defensive end and EARN a stop, as opposed to watching someone try to get the ball up court and miss a desperation ½-court or ¾-court shot.  It’s much more rewarding for both sides.  Advancing the ball after timeouts in late-game situation really adds another element to the greatness of NBA basketball.  Because college basketball doesn’t mimic this, the game suffers.

Being allowed to advance the ball to half court allows for great
plays to happen - like Derek Fisher's .4 second miracle shot

4)      The possession arrow

      In the event of a jump-ball, the team with the possession arrow gets the ball.  Seriously?  Why not just do an actual jump-ball?  Take luck and chance out of the equation if you want to make the game better.  Make these 50/50 plays come down to hustle and determination –  not a <bleep>ing arrow!

College basketball is fun to watch – but for all of the wrong reasons.  If you can overlook all of college basketball’s shortcomings, then it’s definitely a joy to watch. I prefer the NBA, where the level of play is much better.

Winning Ain't Easy

On the early morning of Friday, March 4, 2011, NASA launched a Taurus XL rocket containing the Glory payload – a satellite designed to study the Earth’s climate.  Minutes into the launch, the Taurus vehicle’s fairing – a protective shroud that protects the satellite through the thick of the Earth’s atmosphere before entering space – failed to separate.  This led to mission failure, as satellites cannot reach its desired orbit with that extra weight.  No matter how unlikely these mishaps are, mission failures are bound to happen.  However, two of the other eight previous Taurus flights also failed.  What makes this recent failure that much more disappointing and head-scratching is that the previous Taurus rocket launch carrying the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite – one Taurus mission prior to Glory – failed in the same manner as the Glory mission.  So, the "isolated incident" rationale is not to be used as an excuse.

NASA’s Launch Services Program has launched several successful missions and injected many satellites into orbit, thus making mission success often taken for granted.  A member of NASA, you’re put in a tough position when your rocket fails to get a satellite to space successfully; when your launch vehicle fails, you let a lot of customers down:  first, the satellite company hoping to get into space via your rocket.  The other equally important customer (if not more important) that becomes disappointed is the public, whose tax money contributes to these critical missions.  I, as a first-hand witness, can say that NASA did everything that was feasibly possible, anchored by the discretion of some of the smartest people in the world, to mitigate this failure scenario for the past two years.  Somehow, it happened again.  Although all angles were deemed covered, something slipped through the cracks.  Point is, there’s so many variables that it’s hard to fault anything in particular for these disappointments, and all you can do is try not to get discouraged, learn from your mistakes, and go back to the drawing board.

This harsh lesson translates to many things, including the NBA.  As much as you hear about teams like the Lakers and Spurs, who historically have made winning look so easy, there are so many other teams out there that show how hard it is to have postseason success.  In reality, there have been a ton of quality teams who have not quite been able to get over the hump – either running out of gas or coming up empty on luck.  Just as NASA was unable to prevent another mishap from happening, many NBA teams have come up short in their bid for an NBA championship – regardless of all the lessons learned, re-tooling, and development of their team.  

Metaphorically speaking, there are a handful of great teams out there whose fortunes match that of the Taurus rocket.  As a result, it’s hard for any fan (i.e. customer) to trust a team who always comes up short, just as it will be for any satellite customer (or tax payer) to trust putting their multi-million dollar satellite onto a Taurus.  While it may be shortsighted and unfair to pin such a negative connotation on teams and the Taurus program that way, sometimes that’s just the way it is. 

Take some NBA teams for example.  In the last decade (2000-09), only 5 teams won the NBA title:  the Lakers, Spurs, Pistons, Heat, and Celtics.  In the previous decade (1990-99), there were only 4 title teams (Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs).  You would think the NBA hasn’t been competitive at all just by those stats.  The reality is that some great teams just flat out come up short.  Let’s look at some of these teams that, no matter how much effort is put into building a championship caliber squad, somehow lose control of their destiny and experience routine failure:

Orlando Magic

If Shaq and Penny got along, Orlando may
have had more success

Most regular seasons for the Magic have been very promising – both in the Shaq (92-96) and Dwight (04 to present) eras.  But in each of those seasons in which they were poised to win it all, a variety of issues kept them from bringing a championship to Orlando.  When Shaq was in town, he and Penny Hardaway formed the best point guard-center tandem in the league.  Regrettably, they were not the best friends in the world.  The two of them were constantly feuding, often finding themselves competing for the spotlight both on and off the court.  In 96, Shaq fled to sign a $120 million contract with the Lakers.  In 99, Penny’s career began to fade due to injuries (including the notorious career-destroying microfracture knee surgery) and he was traded to Phoenix.  Since then, he continued to battle injuries for the remainder of his once-promising career.

Then came the Tracy McGrady era.  Now, many see him as a fragile guy who’s completely jumped the shark.  But ten years ago, he was an unbelievable all-around talent who was considered by some to be better than Kobe Bryant.  But in this era, it wasn’t just T-Mac that gave Orlando false hope.  As every Orlando fan hates to remember, Grant Hill signed a seven-year, $93 contract with the Magic in 2000 – only to suffer one devastating ankle injury after another and play a mere 47 games in his first four seasons with the team.  After these injuries and the Magic’s annual playoff failures, Otis Smith gave up on the Hill-McGrady experiment, traded T-Mac to Houston in 2004 and sent Hill to Phoenix in 2007.  T-Mac ended up having a few more good seasons in Houston (remember the ridiculous 13 points in 33 seconds in an improbable comeback win vs. San Antonio?), but he eventually lost most of his explosiveness due to nagging injuries.  That makes 4 immensely talented players the Magic lost:  Shaq, Penny, T-Mac, and Grant Hill – the latter 3 whose careers were derailed by injury.  If Dwight Howard ends up leaving Orlando in 2012, the Magic could be the only team I can think of to lose so many superstar players to free agency and/or injury. 

The T-Mac and Hill experiment failed miserably

T-Mac and Hill were soon forgotten when Dwight Howard and company revitalized the Magic and made them contenders once again.  When Hedo Turkoglu came into his own (and won Most Improved Player in 2008 along the way), Orlando was a force to be reckoned with.  As I just wrote the other day, they still have a chance to get their act together and surprise a lot of people in the East.  They’ll always miss Mikael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, but as long as Otis Smith remains willing enough to spend money and make trades, their future should hold some more Finals appearances.  That is, if they can keep Dwight..

Indiana Pacers

As a future Hall-of-Famer and undisputed face of the franchise, Reggie Miller came so close to winning the title.  But, two main things came in his way:  Michael Jordan (who was actually responsible for MANY teams in the 90s ending up never winning a title) and Ron Artest.  Jordan’s Bulls ousted the Pacers every year in the late 90s, including an epic 7-game series in the 1998 Eastern Conference Finals (where Miller forced a game 7 by hitting a clutch 3 to win Game 6).  In 2000, Miller finally made an NBA Finals appearance, only to be overwhelmed by a much more talented Lakers squad.  Suddenly in 2004, the Pacers found themselves to be in the discussion as elite contenders when Jermaine O’Neal developed into an elite post player and Ron Artest came on board and emerged as one of the game’s best two-way players (i.e. both offensive and defensive prowess).  In an unfortunate turn of events, things got ugly in a November game vs. the Pistons at the Palace of Auburn Hills.  After Artest committed a hard foul in the waning moments of the game, Ben Wallace retaliated (as the Pacers were handily winning that game already and took offense to Artest’s timing for the hard foul).  Artest actually kept his calm at the time and didn’t retaliate against Wallace (though not many would).  That is, he was calm until an idiot fan threw a beer at Artest.  The rest was history – Artest was suspended for the rest of the year, and then Miller retired at the conclusion of that season.

The Artest melee derailed the Pacers season - and perhaps their franchise

Unfortunately for the Pacers, the infamous brawl completely derailed the franchise.  In fact, alcohol would be forever banned from ALL NBA arenas in the 4^th quarter, essentially spoiling the fun for all NBA fans in going to games.  Anyway, Indiana has not recovered since.  Pacers GM Larry Bird will keep trying to build a roster with good character.  Sadly, in trying to “clean up” the image of the team, Bird got rid of talent as much as he got rid of questionable characters.  At one point, there were many controversial claims being thrown around that the team was way too “white.”  At one point during the 2008-09 season, it was hard to dismiss the claim; they had Travis Diener, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts, Rasho Nesterovic, and Troy Murphy all on the roster.

Now, the Pacers are but a mediocre team who are better off in a rebuilding phase.  Bird has tried building the team around Danny Granger, but he is slowly coming to the realization that Granger is just a solid player (i.e. not a superstar) and thus not a centerpiece he can build a team around.  He didn’t even get much playing time last summer on Team USA in the World Championships over the likes of Andre Iguodala and Rudy Gay.  Hopefully, Bird can either get a good draft pick or trade Granger for some future pieces.  As a small market team, it will be hard to land any big-time free agents – especially on a rebuilding team.  That said, only time will tell if the Pacers will ever be competitive in the near future. 

Utah Jazz

This is yet another team that fell victim to the Jordan era, losing to the Bulls in back-to-back NBA Finals in 97 and 98.  Karl Malone and John Stockton became a household-named pair and brought almost 2 decades of great basketball to Utah.  If Jordan didn’t come back from retirement (the first time), Utah would have had two championships.  They could never capitalize after Jordan retired in 98, as the Spurs and Lakers began to dominate the West. 

The post-Malone-and-Stockton phase came to an end, but Sloan was able to keep the Jazz relevant in the West.  F Andrei Kirilenko had his best years following the retirement of the dynamic duo, and the team drafted Deron Williams in 04.  They were also able to acquire Carlos Boozer, who betrayed Cleveland in a much, much worse manner than LeBron did. He was released from Cleveland because the (literally) blind Cavs owner was generous enough to rid him of his low-paying rookie contract (as he was a 2^nd round pick) so that he could immediately sign him to a more lucrative one.  Then, Boozer completely backstabbed him and the city of Cleveland to take an even bigger contract with Utah.  Nobody deserved to be hated this much by an entire city more than Boozer.  That is, until LeBron left town in the manner he did. Anyway, even with a solid team, Utah fell short in several playoff series – especially against the Lakers.  That’s a team that Utah could not manage to beat, getting swept by LA in two straight years. 

18 seasons of great basketball together
- but no titles to show for it

This year, the team was in turmoil.  Boozer, the least trustworthy guy in the world to re-sign with a team, bailed to join Chicago last offseason.  Despite acquiring Al Jefferson from Minnesota, the team struggled.  When the team began to plummet in the standings, Jerry Sloan retired.  Deron Williams was traded to the Nets, as he fell out of favor with management and apparently was to blame for Sloan’s sudden departure.  In the end, it was a wise move.  The West will eventually lose Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant to retirement, and Utah has created some cap space and acquired some great pieces – including promising F Derrick Favors and some draft picks.  They are probably in for a few rough seasons to come, but they do have assets for the future.  Not too reassuring, I know, but that’s more promising than the outlook of some of the other teams on this list.

Portland Trailblazers

We’ve all become aware of the injury curse that these poor Blazers have faced the last few seasons.  Devastating injuries to seemingly every key player on the roster, including superstar Brandon Roy and the #1 overall pick of the 2007 draft – Greg Oden, have hindered their progress as a team. 

If Sheed and the Blazers weren't so volatile,
the franchise would be in much better shape

In the late 90s and early 2000s, when the team had an absolutely filthy-loaded roster (Scottie Pippen, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Kemp, Steve Smith, Brian Grant, Jermaine O’Neal, Arvydas Sabonis, Detlef Schrempf, Bonzi Wells, Damon Stoudamire, Greg Anthony), their shortcomings perplexed the minds of many in the league.  The most painful memory came in the 2000 Western Conference Finals:  Portland had a 14 point lead in the 4^th quarter in Game 7 vs. the Lakers.  To this day, I have never seen such an epic collapse with such high stakes and by such a talented team – except maybe by Dallas in 2006 (see below).  The difference between this collapse and that of Dallas’ is that Portland let Brian freakin’ Shaw tear them apart.  Dallas was a victim of Dwyane Wade’s coming out party (and referees, but so were the Blazers).  The team, as constituted, never quite recovered from that crushing loss.  With guys like Wallace and Stoudamire getting busted for smoking weed, the famous “Portland Jail-Blazers” label was put on the team.  Subsequently, much like Larry Bird did with the Pacers, GM Paul Allen commenced a fire sale of the team and replaced all the knuckleheads with high character guys.

Is there hope for this team in the future?  It’s looking bleak, but I really hope I’m wrong.  This year, the Gerald Wallace trade should really give them a boost.  LaMarcus Aldridge, the Western Conference Player of the Month for February (and huge admission of error by the NBA for not naming him an All-Star), has become a beast.  With a tandem of Miller and Roy anchored by Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby in the frontcourt, this team should be very solid and can scare some of the top teams in the playoff bracket.  Hopefully in the long term, Oden can come back and live up to some of the hype he got when he was drafted four years ago.  With GM Paul Allen and coach Nate McMillan running the show, these guys can be contenders for years to come – if only they can shake the injury bug. 

Sacramento Kings

This team was closest to contending with Chris Webber in his prime from 2000-03.  C-Webb, when healthy, was one of the best power forwards in the league.  He had perhaps the best court vision of any 4-man in that era.  In 2002, C-Webb led a very stacked Kings team – with Mike Bibby, Doug Christie, Vlade Divac, Hedo Turkoglu and Peja Stojakovic – to a 3-2 series lead in the Western Conference Finals over the Lakers.  Then came the controversial Game 6 in Los Angeles, where the refs basically gave the game to the Lakers.  The Lakers attempted 40 free throws to the King’s 20, including a 27-9 advantage in attempts from the line in the 4^th quarter.  You read that right – 27 free throws in the 4^th quarter alone!  To this day, Kings fans are in complete disbelief that the team lost that series. 

If Horry missed this shot, the Kings may very well have won a title or two

In the 2003 playoffs, Webber suffered a career-threatening knee injury in the middle of their series vs. Dallas that effectively killed the prime of his career.  Because of this tragic timeline, everyone will always wonder what could have been if the Kings won the 2002 series.  Their biggest enemy, in most eyes, were the refs of that Game 6.  It also didn’t help that in Game 4, when Sacramento led the series 2-1, lost the game on a buzzer-beating three by Robert Horry.  The worst part of that from a Kings fan’s standpoint is the fact that Horry even got the ball at that particular moment in the game.  It was one of the luckiest and fate-altering breaks I’ve seen to this day in a game.

Now, the Kings are obviously in a rebuilding mode.  I got a chance to watch this particular Kings team in person on Wednesday night vs. Orlando (in Sacramento), where rookie DeMarcus Cousins showed what kind of player he can be by out-beasting Dwight Howard.  Along with Cousins, I expect to see a young and talented team struggle to figure out how to win games.  Tyreke Evans, last year’s rookie of the year, has battled plantar fasciitis this season (seemingly every year, a star player seems to have a down year because of it – including Joakim Noah, Rasheed Wallace, Tim Duncan, etc.).  With that injury’s track record, Kings fans should not be worried about Evans’ relatively disappointing season.   What they should worry Cousins, who many have called the most immature rookie of all time.  If he doesn’t learn how to control his emotions, he could very well waste his enormous talent. 

There is hope from a basketball standpoint for the Kings.  Unfortunately, there is the non-basketball side of things that is going to devastate Sacramento fans:  the team will probably move to Anaheim soon.  If that happens (and I hope it doesn’t), the Pacific Northwest will have lost 2 great franchises (the Seattle Sonics being the first) within a few years.  The one thing worse than having a losing team like the Cavaliers is not having a team at all, and it’s going to be sad to see the die-hard fans of Sacramento lose their team too.  

Phoenix Suns

When Barkley used to bash D’Antoni’s apparent inability to get his team to play defense, D’Antoni took a shot right back at Charles, saying Barkley choked away a championship.  This, of course, referenced the 1993 NBA Finals, most notably when Phoenix blew a late lead against Jordan’s Bulls in Game 6 on a game-winning three by John Paxson.  Phoenix never got back to the Finals, and Barkley was traded to Houston for some more disappointing seasons.  Speaking of Barkley – in the future, I’ll write an equivalent post on best players to never win a title.  He would definitely be up there on the list.

When Steve Nash signed with (or should I say, rejoined) Phoenix in 2004, he paired up with a coach (Mike D’Antoni) who was perfectly conducive to his playing style preference.  Then began the Seven Seconds or Less (SSL) era – where the Suns revitalized the NBA with a blistering and exciting up-and-down offense.  Despite subsequent playoff failures, they had incredible regular season success and somewhat dispelled the notion that fast-paced offense can’t win games.  Since then, many NBA teams have tried to emulate this model.  An exciting brand of basketball brought great success to the franchise.

Nash has had his share of blows to
the face in playoff action

Unfortunately, the exciting SSL era did not bring any titles to Phoenix.  In most seasons since 2004, they were legitimate contenders.  They seemed to get one bad break after another – Joe Johnson broke his nose in the 05 playoffs and lost in the 2^nd round.  Thanks to Cheap Shot Bob (Robert Horry) in 2007, Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended for Game 6 vs. San Antonio.  Horry infamously clocked Nash into the scorer’s table late in Game 4, leading to Stoudemire and Diaw coming to his rescue and thereby getting suspended 1 game each by the league for leaving the proximity of the Phoenix bench.  Had Stoudemire and Diaw been available for Game 5 at home, Phoenix would likely have gone up 3-2 in the series with 2 chances to close out the Spurs instead of going down in six games.  Of course, you’ll see how classy Nash is in that clip by not publicly taking offense to Horry’s cheap shot (and perhaps his greatest clutch “shot” ever). 

In the 2010 playoffs, Nash finally tasted victory against San Antonio after they swept the Spurs in the 2^nd round.  The expression “monkey off his back” doesn’t even begin to describe what that must have felt like, given the previous shortcomings.  Sadly, that didn’t spell the end of their bad breaks.  In Game 6 of the Conference Finals vs. the Lakers, Phoenix managed to force Kobe to throw an air ball in the closing seconds, only to see Ron Artest put it back and win the game (and series) for them.

If it weren’t for a few bad breaks – most of which were mired by Nash breaking his noze a few dozen times – they may have won a title or two.  Now, they are doomed for a few years of mediocrity unless they blow up the team and trade Nash.  That won’t happen, because Nash is way too classy and loyal to bail Phoenix.  Hopefully, Phoenix will be appealing enough of oa destination for future superstar free agents.  That’s only the start of what it will take to get this team back to contending status. 

Dallas Mavericks

If I were Mavs owner Mark Cuban, I would have lost all morale by now.  A team with all the ingredients – fantastic owner, great coaches, star players, die-hard fans – still have not been enough.  The problem with many teams is that they have front offices who aren’t willing to spend money to make their teams better.  This team is far from falling into that criteria. As a result, this much-maligned squad oft gets labeled for their lack of postseason success (regardless of regular season success), and many have tried emasculating Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki by questioning his toughness as a player. 

The 2006 Mavs rolled over and died after
nearly securing a championship

Dallas's playoff disappointments have been well-documented.  The most crushing blow had to be the aforementioned 2006 NBA Finals, where they were 6 minutes away from having an insurmountable 3-0 series lead vs. Miami.  Unfortunately for them, Dwyane Wade went completely ballistic and destroyed the team to rally his team and win the championship.  Dallas was clearly flustered by Miami’s comeback, and could never recover in that series.  Following that season, coach Avery Johnson had the Mavs completely locked in and focused to win a title.  The team won 66 games that season and was poised to make another title run. 

Side note about Miami:  did anyone see the 4^th quarter of Miami vs. LA last night?  How many times did I mention that Wade should be the go-to guy down the stretch?  Watch the highlights of that game; Wade came through in crucial moments on both ends – defending Kobe on one end, and breaking down the Laker defense by getting to the rim on the other end.  He made one great play after another and sealed the win.  The team snapped a long losing streak because they finally let LeBron defer to Wade.  LBJ is a great player – but seemingly only for the first 3 quarters.  

Anyway, the good news for Dallas is that they still have a chance.  And since they have been labeled as the-team-that-never-wins, they will be flying under the radar.  They have a lot to like about this season:  Tyson Chandler has emerged as a great defender who compliments Dirk perfectly.  Caron Butler may be back for the postseason.  Jason Kidd has been playing as well as he can for an old timer, even nabbing a triple double recently.  In fact, read this very interesting article by Ian Levy of the Dallas section of the TrueHoop network.  It’s a very convincing argument that Kidd may be THE most versatile player in NBA history, with respect to his ability to get triple doubles.  LeBron is seen as a guy who is a walking triple double, but Levy shows that Kidd should get that label. 

If Dallas happens to fall short somehow again this season, then I would forever write them off from contention (especially if they don’t’ have injury issues to blame it on).  But not yet.  Give them one more chance.

Now, by making this comprehensive analogy – comparing the Glory mission failure to sports teams – I do not mean to offend or belittle those who spent endless hours diligently working the OCO and Glory missions.  It’s merely a simplified explanation to relate the similar perspectives between the two entirely different topics.  In the same manner where you have so many talented and highly qualified engineers who are tainted by the OCO and Glory failures, you comparably have many great NBA teams who were never able to win a championship.   Hopefully, the Taurus program and the teams I listed and will see glory days (no pun intended) at some point in the near future.  Despite gloomy outlooks for most of these teams, nothing would be worse than never getting a chance.  In other words, nothing is worse than ending up like Seattle.  With a few lucky breaks, many of these franchises could easily have been in better shape.  But franchise-altering events - both instant and long term - have caused great disappointment.

Floridian NBA Teams struggling to find their groove

Since moving here to Orlando three years ago, I've learned this:  it goes without saying that Florida is a football state.  With tons of teams to watch, 90% of the people here religiously watch college (Florida, Central Florida, Florida State, Miami, South Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida A&M) and/or pro (Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jaguars) football.  Before this season, the fact that Orlando and Miami even have basketball teams has been a bit of an afterthought.   Heck, the Heat even had to campaign for the team and make promos, urging fans to “Fan Up” for Heat games, even after the team made arguably the biggest off-season splash in NBA history.  As for the Magic, they still don’t seem to get as much attention in this area as they should.  Maybe that will change, especially with their spectacular brand new arena.  Mind you, they are both relatively new NBA teams; the Heat became a franchise in the 1988-89 season, and the  Magic joined the league one season later.  Football has obviously been around much longer.

With a solid team and new arena, Orlando has potential to be a better basketball city

For once in my current state of residence, though, the sports talk now revolves around basketball.  Last night’s instant classic Heat-Magic game, where the Magic made a furious rally to overcome a 24 point deficit (the 2^nd largest comeback in Magic history) to beat the Heat, has Florida sports fans talking basketball for a change.  If these two teams were in bigger basketball towns like NYC, Boston or LA, you would be even more sick to death of hearing about them.   

Orlando and Miami have had different issues, but very similar seasons in terms of their inconsistency.  Both teams, unlike the pro football teams, are legitimate championship contenders.  Both of these teams have had similar phases of ups and downs this season; they are both dealing with integrating new players in a fluid roster and trying to find an identity.  As a result, both teams have struggled to maintain consistency.  One night after their impressive comeback vs. Miami, the Magic faltered against Chicago.  On this same night, Miami could not recover from its collapse vs Orlando and got torched by San Antonio.  It seems that both teams go through phases of erratic play, and we have no idea how far they will get in the playoffs even though they are both legitimate contenders.   

ORLANDO MAGIC

Season Summary

Until recently, this team has had a very disappointing season.  Fresh off two very solid seasons – including two conference finals (and one NBA Finals) appearances – Orlando was widely considered to be a contender for the 2011 NBA title.  But after months of inconsistent and subpar basketball, turmoil has surrounded the team:  a blockbuster trade (Vince Carter, Mikael Pietrus, Marcin Gortat and Rashard Lewis shipped out; Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, and Earl Clark brought in) happened and a difficult adjustment period ensued, Dwight Howard has repeatedly expressed frustration with his teammates, and rumors swirled with regard to the possibility of Howard bailing Orlando as a free agent in 2012. 

Lingering Issues

Orlando still sorely misses the defensive presence
of G/F Mikael Pietrus and C Marcin Gortat

You can’t just dismiss Orlando’s issues on the court, even after their inspiring come-from-behind victory against Miami on Thursday night.  Lots of questions surround Orlando as they press forward.  They still miss Pietrus and Gortat dearly, as they were the “glue” guys on this team (especially on defense).  Two of the newcomers – Hedo and Arenas – are clearly not the players they once were.  Hedo was slightly rejuvenated right after the trade after basically rotting for two years in Toronto and Phoenix, but has struggled as of late.  Arenas has been somewhat of a non-factor, and does not appear to be a good fit with starter Jameer Nelson.  In fact, Nelson has played better when Arenas sat out with injuries.  If Orlando ends up having a disappointing season, I can’t see Magic GM Otis Smith keeping both of them.   

With Gortat’s departure, the Magic have still not found a center to back up Howard (I’m going out on a limb and saying that Malik Allen ain’t gonna cut it as a center).  If they were to face teams with multiple active bigs on their roster (e.g. Boston, Chicago, LA), their thin front line will be exposed.  Also, Pietrus’s absence really hurts the Magic’s perimeter defense, which is what Howard has been especially critical of lately.  With average perimeter defenders, it will be tough matching up with the NBA’s elite scorers in the Eastern Conference during the playoffs. 

Do they have a chance?

Having said all that, you can conclude that when the Magic are engaged and focused, they can still beat anybody in a seven-game playoff series.   Howard has considerably improved his low-post offense, especially in the past month (approaching a FG% of 70 for the month!).  His presence and ability to draw double and triple teams will always create offense and lead to open perimeter shots.  As the D’Antoni era of Phoenix will teach you, teams live and die by the three point shot.  But Jason Richardson is still deadly from 3, as evidenced by his barrage of long-bombs that helped Orlando rally against Miami last night.  No matter what, they are never out of the game as long as Howard is crashing the boards and J-Rich is hitting 3’s.  The other thing about J-Rich:  he, unlike Vince Carter, is CLUTCH.  That's an intangible that the Magic have not really had since Rashard Lewis started shopping at GNC (and consequently got suspended for 10 games at the beginning of last year, which he apparently never quite recovered from).  

Hedo's known for his clutch play - at least with the Magic

While he has not been playing very well lately, Turkoglu will be a key player come postseason.  He’s a gifted playmaker for a player his size, and is one of the few guys who knows how to throw good entry passes to Dwight in the post.  He, like J-Rich, is also very clutch.  In his previous stint with Orlando, Hedo was the go-to guy for coach Stan Van Gundy down the stretch of close games.  In addition to late-game play creating and shot making, he and J-Rich have the potential to create as many match-up problems with opponents today as he did with Lewis in their 2009 playoff run.

So, there’s still hope for this team.  When everything clicks, you will see results like their game against Miami.  Still, Van Gundy has his hands full to address all the concerns in an effort to get his team ready.  If they’re not careful, they could slip in the standings and end up losing in the first round.  If they get their act together, they can win the title.  They’re much like last year’s version of the Celtics – a team limping though the regular season, but with potential to make noise in the playoffs. Since the team has had very successful regular seasons the past few years, they might just be bored with the routine of the regular season.  Maybe they are only engaged when they face the truly elite teams.

MIAMI HEAT

Season Summary

Much like their in-state rivals, Miami has had a comparatively up-and-down season.  An adjustment period was to be expected after Wade, Bosh, and LeBron joined forces last summer.  But after struggling out of the gates and starting 9-8, chaos followed.  Doubters questioned LeBron and D-Wade’s cohesion.  Team captain and designated tough guy Udonis Haslem went down with a torn foot ligament.  Mike Miller was still out with a thumb injury he suffered in the pre-season.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra was rumored to be fired and replaced by team president Pat Riley (a déjà vu scenario from the 2005-06 season, in which Riley took over for Stan Van Gundy after an 11-10 start).  Since then, however, the Heat managed to establish themselves as an elite team and still currently hold the 2^nd best record in the East (behind Boston). 

Lingering Issues

Even though the Big Three have found a way to co-exist, they still struggle against the better teams of the NBA; they are 0-7 against Boston, Dallas, and Chicago.  Also, Spoelstra still needs to iron out the team’s late game strategies; they are 2-12 against winning teams in games decided by five points or less, though the merit of that stat has mixed opinions by some of the best basketball minds.  Miami's epic collapse vs. Orlando yesterday is no fluke; they have struggled mightily with holding leads as a result of their unstable offense.

The most common question that’s been asked all season long is still valid:  with the game on the line, should LeBron or D-Wade get the ball?  I have already voiced my opinion on the two players, and I’m not changing my opinion:  D-Wade should get the ball in late-game situations.  LBJ has clearly been unable to convert in these situations, especially on wide-open jump shots.   Miami has lost 4 of their last 5, and LeBron was MIA in those four losses down the stretch – reverting back to his Cleveland days by running his very ineffective and perplexing 1-on-5 offense.  Either Wade or Spoelstra needs to speak up and take the ball out of LeBron’s hands in those situations.  

When the Big Three sit, the other Heat need to step up

Late-game situations aside, the Heat need contributions from the rest of the team.  Chris Bosh has been fairly inconsistent, but he still contributes defensively.  James Jones, Mike Miller, Mike Bibby and Eddie House really need to be more aggressive, as the Heat offense has become somewhat predictable.  On defense, elite teams tend to pick Miami apart – especially in the paint and on closeout perimeter shots (as evidenced by tonight’s game vs. the Spurs).  That’s something Spoelstra needs to address with his bigs – Joel Anthony, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Erick Dampier.  Of course, Z is the only offensive threat out of the three, so they basically play 4 on 5 on the offensive end with Anthony or Dampier at the 5 position.

Do they have a chance?

Having a team with multiple superstars is kind of like having multiple job offers:  it can be a challenging predicament, but it’s a great situation to be in.  In their first season together, the Big 3 will only gain cohesion over time.  Furthermore, the much-maligned Heat bench will get better as lethal shooters Mike Bibby and Mike Miller try to find their stride.  Haslem will also return sometime next month and bolster their thin front line.  Also, the veterans on their team will pick up their play when the playoffs come around.  Finally, if they remain the East’s 2^nd seed, they will basically have a practice round to gel at the start the playoffs before having to face the top contenders.  The question is whether they will gel in time to be good enough to face those top teams.

PLAYOFF OUTLOOK

A lot can happen in the last 20+ games of the regular season, and both teams have a chance to get their act together by the time the playoffs begin.  For starters, neither team should have much trouble with their first round opponents.  Since the playoffs never have back-to-back games, players battling injuries will benefit from a minimum one-day rest in between games.  This format has generally benefited injury-prone players – especially Wade and Nelson – and will come in handy come playoff time. 

This is obviously all speculative, but let’s go through a playoff scenario:  say the current seeds hold and Miami and Orlando end up 2^nd and 4^th, respectively, in the conference.  As I mentioned, Miami would play (and beat) one of the weaker East teams (most likely either Philly or Indiana) in the 1^st round.  Orlando will most likely play Atlanta, who has never matched up well with the Magic.   That would mean Miami would likely face Chicago and Orlando would match up with Boston in Round 2. 

As I said after the trade deadline, I actually like Orlando’s chances against Boston, only because they lost Kendrick Perkins.  Would the Magic win?  I don’t think so, but they definitely have a better shot now that Perkins is gone.  Unless Shaq can contain Howard one-on-one, Dwight will command double/triple teams and Orlando can finally play their inside-outisde game against Boston.  Of course, this will all depend on how hot JJ Redick, J-Rich, and the rest of the shooters will be.  But if they’re on, they can make the Celtics sweat. 

Miami-Chicago would make for an electrifying playoff series

Chicago is obviously a tough matchup for Miami, but I think they would strongly prefer them over Boston.  The Bulls have been a team on the rise, but have yet to get over the hump.  In fact, this is their first year as legitimate title contenders.  Although they’re 2-0 against Miami in the regular season so far, Chicago will have to prove to themselves that they take down a fellow title contender.  I will get into this further when the playoffs start, but it’s definitely fun talking about the possibility of these two teams matching up and Chicago definitely has the talent to shock the world. 

D-Wade and D-Howard are nightmare
match-ups to each other's teams

If the two teams somehow faced each other, I can easily envision a 7 game series.  With Miami having no answer for Howard, the Heat will be forced to commit double teams.  On the flip side, Orlando’s woes on perimeter D will really open things up for LeBron and D-Wade, especially in fast-break situations.  Before their collapse yesterday, Miami has actually outplayed Orlando for the most part.  But in the playoffs, games tend to slow down and tighten up.  This would favor Orlando, as they are the better team in the half court offense.  There are still a lot of questions that need to be answered before these two teams can even get to this point, but a head-to-head playoff series would be a heavyweight slugfest.  Man, the playoffs are going to be great – in both conferences – from the 2^nd round onward. 

Since there finally seems to be a buzz about these two teams, the passion of sports fans  in the state of Florida with regard to basketball is finally somewhat resembling that of other fans in big market basketball towns.  They’ve got a long way to go, but this is a good start.  As a result, you’re going to see the same roller coaster reactions you see at bigger market basketball cities.  When either team struggles, there is a mass panic reaction.  When they put together a good stretch of play, the championship talk begins and bandwagon fans arrive.  If these two teams face each other in the playoffs, you better believe the state Florida – and the nation – will be watching.