After Season-Long Dwightmare, Stan Van Gundy Strikes Back

NOTE:  This article will be published on Fansided's Saving the Skyhook blog, where I am currently contributing as a staff writer.

If you thought the Dwight Howard drama came to an end after the trade deadline passed, think again.  After a mere few weeks passed, we saw yet another episode unveil in the Orlando Magic soap opera.  Once again, the media frenzy is surrounding the Magic – again.  On Thursday morning, Coach Stan Van Gundy revealed to the media that he was told that Howard asked Magic management to fire him.  When asked whether his coach was speaking the truth, Howard – who has been heavily criticized all season long –made himself look even more foolish in his subsequent actions and words in denial of SVG’s accusations.  In one fell swoop, this created the most egregiously awkward press conference I can remember to date (if you have a few minutes, it’s worth watching the whole thing – you’ll get a good laugh).

Thursday morning's press conference had Stan Van Gundy (left)
and Dwight Howard (right) in a bizzare and awkward situation 

Before offering my opinion on Howard, I will say this:  ESPN’s David Thorpe offered some very perceptive words about Dwight Howard on Thursday, saying that Howard “is really just like so many young stars in all careers — Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. Young men with enormous talent and a promising future, forced to grow up faster than they are prepared to do. Mistakes in judgment are made, and sometimes emotions ugly things up for a while. But I am sure that over time things will get better for him as he matures.”

While it’s so easy for all of us outsiders to criticize Dwight, we do tend to overlook what Thorpe pointed out:  he’s still a young 26-year old kid.  We just tend to ignore that because, like many lines of work, the NBA is another place that forces you to mature faster than you can.  That’s why Howard has been handling all of this so poorly – even though we have high expectations, maturity wise, for a team’s franchise player, being in a position to flex power and leverage can have dire consequences for an immature person.  So, while I am just as guilty as anyone of no longer giving Howard any benefit of the doubt, we do have to give him a chance to grow up after this experience.

Okay, enough of playing devil’s advocate.  That being said…

Howard simply cannot be trusted.  He has a disturbing tendency to throw everyone else around him – players, coaches, GMs, what have you – under the bus.  And as we found out before the trade deadline, he is extraordinarily flaky.  After Thursday night’s blowout loss to the Knicks (at HOME, no less), where Howard had a poor game (8 points, 8 rebounds, and was scoreless at the half), he claimed he was trying to get back in a rhythm after returning from injury - but still putting in max effort for his team.  Who’s BSing now?  If I’m a GM, I’d be weary of a guy who has a history of calling out his teammates for not being good enough and his coach for being too negative.  There are extenuating circumstances when a player has a right to complain to upper management about their coaching situation (e.g. Magic Johnson with Paul Westhead), but this is certainly not one of them.

After Dwight’s series of bad decision making, does LeBron James’ “Decision” look that bad anymore?  I don’t think it does.  Unlike LeBron, Howard has caused several uproars and imploded the team before even becoming a free agent.  Yes, I think Howard has made people hate LeBron a little less – and that in itself is no small feat.

Much of the hatred toward LeBron for his "Decision"
has been shifting towards Dwight Howard

Van Gundy has taken a lot of criticism as well – especially for revealing a supposedly private conversation with management to the media.  But if you were Van Gundy, would you WANT to keep quiet and continue to be a scapegoat in defense of a guy who’s trying to get you fired?  He has kept pretty quiet in the midst of all the turmoil for this long.  After Howard continued his subversive antics, you can’t blame SVG for saying what he said.  Let’s not side with the guy who – let’s not forget – is still handcuffing the organization by refusing to commit to them long term.  Why would GM Otis Smith take his advice on personnel decisions?

So what’s next for Van Gundy, Howard, and Orlando?

Don't expect many more exchanges between Van Gundy and Howard

I think Stan is going to resign.  Whether he’s lost the entire team is up for debate, as we’re not entirely sure if the rest of the team has any qualms with Van Gundy the same way Dwight evidently has.  If Stan has lost the team, then so has Howard; he has isolated himself by his flakiness and the constant criticism of everyone else around him.  The fact that they’ve had the 3^rd-best record in the East for most of the season is a miracle – and a testament to Van Gundy, not Howard.  But either way, there’s no way Van Gundy can keep this up for much longer.  If they think they can suck it up the rest of the season, they’re kidding themselves.

The Dwight Predicament

As the Orlando Magic’s losing culture is growing stronger by the day, everyone league-wide is wondering the same thing:  is it time to trade the franchise player?  This question is consuming the entirety of Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith’s thoughts, as the NBA community is awaiting his next move in the Dwight Howard trade rumor saga.  A situation that’s gone from bad to worse, this is a team that needs answers.  And fast.

What is going on with the Magic?  Are the trade rumors hurting the team that much?

Things have worsened exponentially over the last week or so.  It started last week with a humiliating blow-out loss to a depleted Boston Celtic team without Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen, and managed to score only 56 points.  Then a few days later, they completely melted down and blew a 27-point 1st half lead against the very same depleted Celtic team.  In case anyone wondered if this would carry over against one of the worst teams of the league, New Orleans routed them 93-67 on Friday.  Sunday night, they got blown out at home by Indiana by 21.  And in their attempt to reverse their disappearing act the next night, they came up short against Philly.

All Dwight can think about is when - not if - he's leaving Central Florida

All teams go through dry spells.  But given the magnitude of defeats and circumstances surrounding the team, it’s hard not to attribute these struggles to Howard’s swirling trade rumors.  After the aforementioned blowout loss to the Hornets, Howard bashed his teammates and their lack of effort.  He’s been known to call out his teammates to the press before, but this time it’s become evident that his peers have given up on him.  He's also publicly criticized head coach Stan Van Gundy's abrasive coaching style.  That’s why, as a superstar, asking for a trade puts you in a TERRIBLE spot.  An irreversible chain of events occurs and the team starts to self-destruct.  First, your teammates and coaching staff begin to question your commitment and loyalty.  Once that happens, you are no longer in a position to call out your team in hopes for a positive result.  In their eyes, they’re thinking, ‘what’s the point of giving your all for a guy who wants to leave anyway?’ 

We’ve seen precedence before of a lame duck superstar in a contract year.  Just to avoid bringing up painful memories for Magic fans of losing Shaq (and better yet, to pick a more recent example), Orlando’s situation is mirroring that of the Denver Nuggets involving Carmelo Anthony last season; Melo demanded a trade at the beginning of the 2010-11 season and, after months of speculation and indecision on the part of Nuggets management, he finagled his way to New York.  

Much like Dwight today, Melo had to address
trade rumors on a daily basis last season

Let’s compare the similarities between this year’s Magic and last year’s Nuggets.  While Melo was still a Nugget during the first half of the season, the team chemistry was horrific.  Yes the team was still winning some games, but deep down, his teammates knew he wanted to leave.  They knew his heart wasn’t in it.  They knew Melo was playing only to pad his stats and sell himself to the Knicks.  I’ve never seen a player so emotionally detached from a team – until now with Dwight.  Much like Melo last season, Dwight’s body language has been visibly terrible since the start of training camp.  Even though he’s still putting up decent numbers, you can tell his heart is not in the game.  And you can tell his teammates have quit on him.

But why is Dwight so hell bent on leaving Orlando? They really aren’t that bad – they’re only 3 years removed from an NBA Finals appearance…

From a pure basketball standpoint (turmoil aside), the Magic
 aren't too many pieces away from returning to the Finals

I honestly don’t know, and I don’t think anybody really does.  Despite being only 3 seasons removed from an Eastern Conference title, Howard feels change of scenery is needed.  Like many marquee free agents before him, Dwight Howard is looking for greener pastures – but his motive is unclear.  He says he wants a better chance to win a championship, but it makes you wonder when he makes outrageous David Kahn-like suggestions – such as telling the front office to keep Gilbert Arenas.  Does he want to play with his buddies, be in a bigger market, or have a better supporting cast?  Based on his wish list of destinations, the answer to that is not very clear.

As of now, he has a short wish list of destinations:  New Jersey, LA (Clippers AND Lakers), Dallas, and now Chicago.  Just by simple reasoning, you can figure out why a trade hasn’t happened yet with any of these teams.  We know the Nets have NOTHING of value to trade for him – particularly with Brook Lopez’s broken foot.  The Clippers would have to give up Blake Griffin (who, btw, just mesmerized the league with his ridiculous dunk theother night) to get Dwight, which I don’t think they would be willing to do right now even if the trade itself makes sense.  Otis Smith has told the Lakers he will not settle for less than Pau Gasol AND Andrew Bynum (they’ve only offered Bynum).  Dallas and Chicago are already championship-caliber teams that will be hesitant to gut their rosters to get Dwight during such an abbreviated season.  Thus, trade talks have been at an impasse.

What’s next for the Magic?

That’s a tough question that only time will tell.  In any case, Magic fans better brace themselves for many seasons of mediocrity.  Even though the Nuggets went through the same situation last year and came out smelling like roses, the results for Orlando parting ways with their superstar will be completely different.  Right now, the Nuggets are now a MUCH better team than they ever would have been with Melo, and so everyone in Denver is glad to see him gone (and struggling in NY).  You can’t complain about the results of the trade as a Nugget fan – since the trade, the Knicks have gone 21-27 with Melo, while Denver improved remarkably without him – and is now sitting at 2^nd overall in standings of the loaded Western Conference.  In contrast with Orlando, it’s hard to envision a similar result when Dwight leaves.  Melo is more of a ball-stopper (which is KILLING his Knicks right now), while Dwight has more of a team anchor-like presence and is not the one dictating his team’s offense.  Since Melo’s departure, Denver improved tremendously on defense, while it’s hard to imagine Orlando replacing Dwight’s superior defensive presence.

The Denver Nuggets couldn't be better without Melo, but it's hard to see the same
success story panning out for the Magic without Howard

If you’re Otis Smith, here are your options:

1)      Trade Dwight ASAP in hopes of ending the current state of turmoil and take the best offer on the table.

2)      Call everyone’s bluff and wait until the trade deadline to solicit everyone’s BEST trade offer, or...

3)      Wait it out until free agency and see if you can keep him, or get the best possible sign-and-trade deal.

Option 3 should be ruled out at this point, as he’s made it clear he doesn’t want to stay.  So, unless he wants to lose Howard for nothing this summer, Otis Smith should just bite the bullet at some point this season and follow one of the first two options.

I’ll close this blog post with one thought, as I talked to my friend John about this recently:  why the hell is Orlando not a more appealing destination for free agents?  Brand spanking new arena, great weather, no state taxes – I’d really like to know why players aren’t biting at the bit to move to Central Florida.  Of all the superstars who have been wanting to move in the last few years – Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. – NONE have even entertained the idea of wearing a Magic uniform – even to play with the league’s best center.  Perhaps that's really why Howard is moving forward with a trade request?  Please comment with your theories on this, because I’m at a loss.

If you think that trade rumors don’t affect players and their teams that much, think again.  

NBA Playoff Predictions Part III: NBA Conference Semifinals and Beyond

Every year, we see the same trend through the second round of the playoffs.  NBA haters, to this point, will scoff at the lack of upsets in the 1st round and spew off some hogwash about how boring the NBA playoffs are if all the top seeds advance as predicted.  The East, in particular, has such a large gap between the 4^th (Orlando) and 5^th (Atlanta) seeds on down, which is why no 1^st round series there will be all that interesting.

What the haters must understand, though, is that the uncompetitive games and matchups from the 1^st round are coming to an immediate halt starting in the 2^nd round and onwards.  From the 2nd Round on, all pretenders are weeded out and it's a battle of the contenders from then on.  At this point, outcomes become extremely hard to predict.  Regular season records between teams will mean virtually nothing to this point, especially with all the heavyweights involved.  And, in a 7-game series, NBA coaching staffs are able to put together scouting reports that are more detailed than you can imagine.  The margin for error for all these teams, to this point, will be minuscule. 

I’ll try to predict the 2^nd round on based on my 1^st round predictions, though do know that I will make these predictions again regardless after the 1^st round is over (especially if my 1^st round predictions are wrong).  I honestly don’t really know who’s going to win the title this year – it really is going to depend on who faces who going forward, since the fortune of teams will vary greatly based on matchups. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Bulls, 3-1

Prediction:  Magic win 4-2

I suspect I will be the minority in this prediction.  Hear me out:  these are one of those matchups that might be favorable for Orlando.  I still stand by the fact that Orlando got really bored of the regular season, especially Hedo Turkoglu.  Hedo WILL step up in the playoffs, and has always been very effective at running the Magic offense – especially in clutch situations.  They still have deadly shooters all over the court, even if JJ Redick is dealing with an injury.  I suspect Howard and Bass to give the Bulls frontcourt fits, especially Carlos Boozer. 

By the way, as I’m writing this, I’m watching Game 1 of the Bulls-Pacers.  Even if they didn’t accomplish the furious rally in Game 1, I fully expect the Bulls to win the series handily – though you have to take your hat off to Tyler Hansbrough and the Pacers for making this series interesting.  While I knew Boozer is an awful defender (and have mentioned that before), I didn’t expect Hansbrough to exploit him this much.  On offense, Boozer has had tremendous difficulty against the elite bigs of the NBA (see the last several Laker-Jazz playoff matchups and his awful performances against Pau Gasol).  Against a guy like Brandon Bass, I expect him to have the same difficulties.  Joakim Noah holds his own against most centers, but not Dwight Howard; Noah’s only 0-rebound game came in a 107-78 loss against Howard and the Magic earlier this season.  If the Bulls utilize their other bigs – Taj Gibson and Omer Asik – a bit more against the Magic’s formidable frontcourt, then they will fare better and may be able to win the series. 

For now, I’m predicting the Magic to utilize their deadly inside-outside game.  With Howard controlling the paint, Rose is going to have to take on a crazy load offensively and create scoring opportunities for his teammates.  The one guy who could screw this up for Orlando is Gilbert Arenas, who has somehow gotten worse as the season progressed.  If he is guarding Rose, he will get lit up just as bad – if not worse – as Boozer will by Howard and Bass.  Nevertheless, unless Rose has a monster performance for the ages (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does), I think the Magic will find a way to hang on.  The Rose-led Bulls have never been past the 1^st Round, and I think their inexperience will catch up to them against the veteran Magic.  Chicago is a great team, but they aren’t quite there.  Yet.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series:  Celtics, 3-1

Prediction:  Heat win 4-3

These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions lately, though the Celtics proved last year that limping towards the finish of the regular season is not indicative of how they’ll perform in the playoffs.   Still, the loss of Perkins and Nate Robinson will catch up to them in this series.  If Shaq was healthy, I could see him giving the weak Miami frontcourt some problems.  But he’s not – he’s literally played 5 minutes since February 1^st.  The guy probably hasn’t done a full workout in a year, which is probably why he’s bound to sprain something if he exerts any energy whatsoever.   

Even with their shortcomings, the Celtics are still going to be a very tough out, and I anticipate this series going down to the wire.  If Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and KG log heavy minutes, they will keep the games close.  But I have no faith in their supporting cast to hold their own against Miami, not that the Heat’s role players are any better.  Overall, I think Miami’s improved over the course of the season and the superstar trio will overmatch Boston’s aging roster. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season Series:  Spurs, 3-0

Prediction:  Spurs win 4-3

OKC is a popular pick to win this series, especially given the fact that these two teams have gone in opposite directions since February.  The Thunder have gone 13-3 since acquiring Perkins (and not by coincidence, Ibaka’s improvement), while the Spurs have stumbled to the finish and barely held on to the 1 seed.  Many think they peaked too early, and are a popular pick to lose this series given Ginobili’s health issues.  Those are all valid arguments, but I am banking on Ginobili to regain his form and for Tim Duncan to take on a bigger load offensively.  They are the West’s version of the Celtics with regard to turning it on for the postseason.  Don’t forget that they were the 7^th seed last year and completely dismantled Dallas in their first round matchup, albeit that was the Mavericks we’re talking about.   The Thunder are much like the Bulls, in that they’re still a very young and talented team.  But inexperience may hurt them against a team like the Spurs.

I could very well be wrong, especially if Ginobili or any other Spur isn’t 100% healthy.  But I think people continue to dismiss the Spurs way too quickly, and they will shock the world even though this technically wouldn’t be an upset. 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series:  Lakers, 2-1

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-3

A few weeks ago, I would have picked Dallas to steal this one from the Lakers.  This team, as I’ve mentioned before, is built to beat them.  Now, after seeing them lately, I have my doubts.  Unlike the Celtics, Lakers, or Spurs, I do think this team needs to be in a good groove heading into the playoffs and can’t just turn it on.  Assuming Dallas has a tough time with Portland, they may be too worn down against the well-rested Lakers (assuming they have an easy time with New Orleans), allowing Bynum, Matt Barnes, and the other less-than-100% Lakers to get some rest before facing the Mavericks.  I still think Dallas will give the Lakers some tough matchups, particularly with Nowitzki spreading the floor if he’s matched up with Gasol.  But Phil Jackson will find a way to get in the head of the Mavericks, which is probably not too hard for him to do. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

The two Floridian teams have experienced up-and-down seasons.  But after all their struggles, here they are in my version of the Conference Finals.  One can’t help but point out that Miami will have no answer whatsoever for Howard, who is bound to dominate the series.  However, in the end, Miami’s suffocating defense will overwhelm the Magic’s perimeter players.  Howard will get frustrated having to constantly help out his teammates that will get abused by Wade and James slashing their way to the rim, which will possibly lead to foul trouble on his part.  Over the course of the series, that will wear on Orlando.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-1

An OKC-LA conference finals matchup is what everyone wants to see.  After the Spurs ruin that possibility, LA is their worst possible matchup of any elite team in the playoff bracket.  I just can’t help but remember LA’s complete beatdown of the Spurs on March 6^th in San Antonio, where they completely manhandled the Spurs and led by as many as 32 points in that game.  Ultimately, I think that’s going to resemble the dynamics this series more so than any of their other regular season matchups.  As great as Duncan is, he will be worn down by Gasol and Bynum in the post.  Ron Artest will probably get matched up against Ginobili, who tends to struggle against physical defenders.  This leaves Kobe on Jefferson, making the Spurs’ only matchup advantage at the point guard position (Parker on Fisher). 

NBA FINALS

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Heat won 2-0

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

This is the dream matchup for David Stern and the NBA.  The presence of Bryant, Wade, and James will make for TV ratings galore.  As I’ve written before, Miami matches up better with this Laker team than anybody in the league.  With Miami having home court, they should be able to impose their style of play on the Lakers.  With their stifling defense, Wade and James don’t both have to play well.  If Wade continues to give Kobe problems on both ends of the floor, that will allow LeBron to focus his energy on offense and continue to be a Laker killer.  Of all perimeter superstars, James is bothered the least by Artest’s physical defense.  Also, while Gasol has a matchup advantage on Chris Bosh, Bosh can space the floor with his consistent 17-18 foot jump shot and keep Gasol honest (i.e. away from the paint on defense), as can Zydrunas Ilgauskas against Andrew Bynum. 

Miami is the one team that you can say is truly not afraid of the Lakers, and I think this would show in the playoffs.  The only question is whether Miami can get there – I could see them having trouble against the Bulls if Orlando fails to eliminate them.  But the playoffs are about matchups (sick of me saying that yet?), and Miami should be able to capitalize on their offseason splash of bringing their dynamic trio together.

This would be a storybook ending to what has been a true roller coaster ride.  It appears the team finally figured out the right formula for winning:  let LeBron run the show for the first 3 quarters, and then have Wade be the closer.  They've also managed to get Bosh more involved, as his numbers have picked up as the season progressed. For them, it would be very impressive to win a title in their first year under incredible scrutiny since the Big 3 announced their "Decision."  Winning a title would be the only way that would make their welcome party look like a good idea.

Again, nobody is ever 100% correct in predicting every playoff series, so I will reassess these predictions as each round progresses.  

NBA Playoff Predictions Part I: East 1st Round

It’s playoff time!  We have 4 months of high-level, intense, and must-see basketball that will wash away the disgusting taste of this year’s March Madness out of everyone’s mouth.  Contrary to popular opinion, it really is hard to predict what will happen in this year’s playoffs.  If the Lakers, Celtics, or Heat win this year, you’ll hear everyone say, “I knew that was gonna happen.”  But you don’t.  Last year, some thought Boston was going to lose in the first round, including die-hard Celtic fan Bill Simmons.  Instead, they had the champion Lakers on the ropes until late in the 4^th quarter of Game 7.  This year, four Eastern Conference teams have a legitimate chance to take the title, as do 3 Western teams (in my opinion, of course). 

For now, I will just go over the 1^st round matchups of the Eastern Conference that are already established. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS – ROUND 1

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

Season Series: Bulls won 3-1

Prediction:  Chicago, 4-0

Let’s get this one out of the way.  This will be by far the most lopsided series of the playoffs, though there have been underdogs in the past that have made 1^st round series more interesting than most predicted.  Be that as it may, Indiana has absolutely no answer for Derrick Rose.  Not many teams do, but most playoff teams have better defensive weapons than Darren Collison and TJ Ford.  Interestingly, though, Indiana’s lone victory during the regular season vs Chicago included a 42 point outburst by D-Rose.  So, if Indiana manages to let Rose (who only had 2 assists that game) be a scorer and clamps down on the rest of his teammates, they may steal a game.  They have the talent to do that, especially since they have rebounding machine Jeff Foster combating with Noah and Boozer.  But I don’t see them making it any more interesting than that. 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Season Series:  Heat won 3-0

Prediction:  Miami, 4-1

More intriguing of a matchup than the Chi-Ind series, but still not all that intriguing.  Miami swept the regular season series, and two of those games took place before December – back when the Heat were struggling and many thought they were a team in turmoil.  Since then, then went on to win 10 straight on the road in December, had an up-and-down roller coaster-type season while the Big Three tried to develop some cohesion amongst themselves; they’ve only gotten better as a team since then, so Philly will have their hands full.  The Sixers have a very athletic team that could give the old guys on Miami (Bibby, Ilgauskas, Howard, House, etc.) some problems, and Andre Iguodala  has the talent to somewhat contain either LeBron or D-Wade.  Doug Collins and his squad may make things interesting for a game or two, but in the end, Miami shouldn’t have any trouble.

One question about the Heat, though:  where is Udonis Haslem?  Considering all the annoying news bits you hear about this team, the team is sure quiet about him.  Is he anywhere close to returning?  When he tore a ligament in his foot early in the season, he was expected to return sometime in April.  If Miami wants to contend for a title, they’ll need to get him healthy.  It’s not like Haslem is a guy that needs to play multiple games to get in a groove in order to help his team; his effectiveness lies in hustle plays and defense.  Those instincts will return very quickly once he returns. 

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

Season Series:  Celtics won 3-0

Prediction:  Boston, 4-1

This is by far the most interesting series of the Eastern Conference on paper so far, but only because of the presence of big-name players on big-name teams.  Without beating around the bush, I don’t think the Knicks can win more than a game.  Each game might be competitive for about 3 and ½ quarters, but I don’t think the Knicks are poised enough to close out a game against the veteran savvy of the Celtics.  Say what you want about Boston and how they’re not as good as last year – I’ve been as critical of them as anybody of their awful play since the Perkins trade.  But as I mentioned earlier, nobody thought they were going to be any good last year, either.  In the end, the Big 4 will turn it on and, in a 7-game series, will know how to get in the heads of Amare and Melo, players with volatile personalities.

All three regular season games between these teams were competitive, but the Celtics managed to get the upper hand in the 4^th quarters of each of those games.  I know regular season games usually don’t matter, but I don’t see that trend changing for this particular matchup.

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series:  Hawks won 3-1

Prediction:  Orlando, 4-1

See?  I don’t always go by who wins the regular season matchups.  Anyway, let’s face facts:  the Magic aren’t as good as they were last year.  But neither are the Hawks.  In this series, they’ll still have trouble matching up with Dwight Howard.   These teams only matched up once since the trade that brought Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas to Orlando, so this regular season matchups have to be taken with a grain of salt. 

A big x-factor in this series is Joe Johnson.  For some reason, he hasn’t been able to come through for this team in the playoffs.  Why Atlanta decided to pay him the most money out of ANY big-name free agent last summer is completely beyond me (and everybody else, including Atlanta fans).  I’ve seen him as a matchup nightmare for most teams in the league, especially Boston.  If the Hawks somehow got matched up with Boston last year, I honestly think they would have won.  But they didn’t – unfortunately, they got obliterated by Orlando and lost each game by an average of 20+ points.  I have said this before and I’ll continue to reiterate this:  playoffs are ALL about matchups.  Just because the Celtics won the East last year, it doesn’t mean they could beat every team in the East; they just happened to match up with the teams they were suited to beat. 

And since the playoffs are about matchups, I do think the Magic, among the other 3 teams in the top 4, have a legitimate chance to win the title.  Although they are somewhat limping here at season’s end, I still stand by the theory that they’re just bored of the regular season; once they warm up against Atlanta in the playoffs, they’ll have a GREAT chance of surprising everyone and make the Finals.  They are a team better suited for the playoff grind as long as Dwight’s anchoring the middle.  As I’ve said before, they will sorely miss Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus – but not Vince Carter.  The one team I can’t see them beating is the Lakers.  But I’ll get to that later.  In this series, I don’t see any differences in the dynamics of this matchup to that of last year.   

I’ll predict the Western Conference matchups (and subsequent rounds) as soon as the seedings are finalized after tonight’s regular season finale.  

The Tragedy of Vince Carter

Does anyone ever stop and think, "What the heck happened to Vince Carter?!"

In high school, everyone is forced to read painful Shakespearean literature, which consisted mostly of tragedies.  The majority –if not all – of those novels had plots that made absolutely no sense to me, but they made enough sense for me to know that the protagonists in the stories were tragic figures.  Such is the basketball career of Vince Carter – a tragic figure whose story also doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  At one point, he was the undisputed heir to MJ himself – a voluminously gifted high flyer and dynamic scorer who rightfully earned the nickname ‘Half-Man, Half-Amazing.’  After a few promising seasons, a combination of effort (or lack thereof), a huge fall from popularity, and to some extent, a myriad of injuries, all completely derailed his career.  Today, he finds himself on the butt end of endless jokes, a lot of them resulting in modified nicknames like ‘Half-Man, Half-A-Season’ (says Charles Barkley) or ‘Half-Man, Half-Amazingly Washed Up’ (Bill Simmons).    After being one of the most popular players in the league, he gained a reputation that he was never able to shed – as a disappointing and underachieving player who never lived up to his hype for any logical reason.  

Players and fans were in awe of Vince Carter's
jaw-dropping athleticism

Carter’s hoops career started out glamorous, as he was selected with the 5^th overall pick out of UNC in the 1998 NBA Draft by Toronto (after being swapped for 4^th overall pick Antawn Jamison, a fellow UNC draftee).  In his first few seasons in the NBA, his freakish athleticism and explosiveness were unparalleled.  In the 1999-00 season, Vince’s popularity skyrocketed – especially after arguably the greatest Slam Dunk competition performance in the history of the contest.  He even topped that with the most insane in-game dunk ever, literally jumping over 7’2” Frederic Weis of France to throw one down.  NOBODY was ever able to do something like that in a game, and nobody ever will.  Despite playing for a Canadian franchise, Vince became immensely popular – voted a starter in 8 straight All-Star games – and continued to gain publicity in the NBA.    

2000-01 was really Carter’s best season, where he averaged a career-best 27.6 points per game on 46% shooting.  He also had his first taste for playoff success, leading the Raptors to a decisive 7^th game in the Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. Allen Iverson and the 76ers (the eventual Eastern Conference Champs that year).  In that series, Iverson and Carter exchanged offensive explosions, including a 54-point total by Iverson in Game 2 followed by Carter’s 50 in Game 3.  Game 7 went down to the wire, with Carter having an opportunity to win the game for Toronto on a fadeaway at the buzzer.  He missed, but it was hard to criticize him at the time – the Raptors were considered a heavy underdog and really gave the Sixers a run for their money.   

Carter’s first critics came when he opted to attend his UNC graduation the same morning of that Game 7 vs. Philly.  Many thought he took a big risk by traveling to Philadelphia from his graduation on game day.  However, other folks (myself included) found this to be admirable, so long as he didn’t play poorly in Game 7 (which he didn’t).  Would he have played any better had he not attended his graduation?  I have my doubts.  Although this action was defensible, it would only lead to a series of questions about his commitment to basketball and desire to improve in general.  

For the time being, there was a majority of enormous positive spotlight on VC.  Because of his success and belief that the Raptors would continue to build a contender around him, Carter re-signed with the Raptors that following offseason for 6 years and $94 million. The front office also spent $140 million to re-sign other key role players that were instrumental in their playoff run, including Antonio Davis, Alvin Williams, and Jerome Williams (aka the Junk Yard Dog).  Convinced that management was committed to build a winning product, Carter accepted the contract extension.  With things looking up for both Carter and the team, the sky was the limit for VC.  Or so we thought..

Much like his vertical, Vince's career potential was sky-high

Carter found new life on the Nets -
that is, for a little while

Questions about Vince’s commitment surfaced following his underwhelming performance in the next few seasons.  He was plagued by injury in the 2001-02 season, developing “jumper’s knee” in his left knee.  Adding to his frustration was his increasing loss of faith to team management, as they failed to acquire any other star players or improve the team during his tenure.  Following the frequent disagreements with team management and then-new head coach Sam Mitchell, Carter was traded to New Jersey (for 20 cents on the dollar, by the way).  After the trade, the initial decline in his popularity began.  In an interview with TNT’s John Thompson, he said something that would forever tarnish his reputation north of the border – when asked if he pushed himself as hard as he could with the Raptors, Carter replied “In years past, no.  I was fortunate to have the talent. You get spoiled when you're able to do a lot of things. You see that you don't have to work at it.”  That comment, taken somewhat out of context, was widely regarded in Canada as Carter’s admission for quitting on the Raptors and forcing his way out of town.  To this day, Raptors fans boo him mercilessly whenever he plays against his former team in Toronto.  Even Stan Van Gundy joked about this when Carter was booed as a member of Orlando, 5 years removed from his Toronto days: "That's a long time to hold a grudge."

The trade to New Jersey and the chance to team up with with future Hall of Fame point guard Jason Kidd would rejuvenate Carter’s career.  Following his last (and worst) season with Toronto – in which he only played 20 games and averaged a career-low 15.9 points per game on 41% shooting – Carter bounced back to All-Star form and scored 27.5 ppg (0.1 shy of his 2000-01 scoring average).  He and Kidd took the Nets into the playoffs for their first three consecutive years as teammates.  Carter appeared to regain his form, showing flashes of his old original athletic self along the way.  He and Kidd formed one of the NBA’s best backcourts, and they were considered legitimate championship contenders. 

Carter has yet to come through on his hunt for a title

Unfortunately, Carter’s performance would only tail off from there.  After the team failed to advance past the 2^nd round of the playoffs and continued to disappoint, Nets management decided to break up the team by trading Kidd to Dallas in the middle of the 2007-08 season.  At this stage in his career, Vince could not carry a mediocre team anymore and failed to make the playoffs in the following two seasons.  Even when he got traded to Orlando in 2009, he turned out to be a huge disappointment despite popular belief that he would play better on a legitimate contender - especially with a dominant center in Dwight Howard (more on that later).  I also thought playing for Orlando would rejuvenate his career, as he would be comfortable near his hometown (Daytona Beach, FL) and was approaching a contract year – two key motivators for any player.  Well, I was wrong.   Carter failed to fulfill the go-to scorer role that the Magic hoped for in acquiring him from New Jersey.  I still remember last season, where he shot 28%from the field in the month of January 2010.  Earlier this season, Magic GM Otis Smith got fed up of him and sent him away to Phoenix.  Now, he often finds himself to be a fourth or fifth option on offense – and lately has been sitting out entire 4^th quarters of games in favor of Mickael Pietrus, Grant Hill, or Jared Dudley. 

Now, this last paragraph you just read is the part of Vince’s story that makes no sense to me at all.  How did he fall this far from the top?  You could justify his waning years in Toronto and chalk that up to injuries and disagreements with management.  Since then, there’s been no real connective tissue that explains his basketball demise.  Seriously, what the heck happened to him?  You could argue that Vince’s initial injuries played a huge role in his overall downfall, as was the case with many hopefuls like Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, and his cousin Tracy McGrady.  But Carter’s career downfall, more than that of any of those players, can be pinpointed more so to chronic underachieving and questionable dedication than any injuries.  

Unlike VC, Kobe never shied away from
getting in the face of his opponents

There are some other theories for his underachievement, aside from injuries and general aging.  Charles Barkley thought he was too nice of a guy to become a superstar.  In some respects, this was a good thing:  despite his immense talent, he was one of the most humble stars in the league.  When Michael Jordan was selected – in his final season – to the 2003 All-Star reserves, Carter relinquished his starting spot to Jordan (although he initially indicated he wouldn’t when asked about that possibility).  Off the court, Carter’s community service has been stellar.  He frequently donates to his high school, Mainland, as well as a foundation he started called “The Embassy of Hope.”  Nevertheless, Barkley’s main point is that he never had the “mean streak” necessary for most to become an elite player.  This ties in to his overall lack of motivation.  Most of the great superstars over the years – Bird, Magic, Dr. J, MJ, Shaq, Kobe, etc – always found ways to motivate themselves.  Whether they would trash talk with opponents or get in fight with their teammates to motivate them, they played with an edge.  At one point, Kobe was one of the most hated players in the NBA.  Think that didn’t fuel him?  Think the other superstars weren’t good at taking their anger out on the court in a positive manner (by the way, the jury is still out as to whether LeBron will correctly harness the hatred towards him)?  You never got that same killer-instinct vibe from Vince as you did with those superstars. 

Another theory is tied to problems with his family – namely his younger brother, Christopher Allen Carter.  While Vince is a role model off the court, Chris did not exactly stay out of trouble.  You never know how much family problems can affect the performance of players – it’s a variable on which we, in the NBA fan base, have virtually no insight.  On the other hand, many superstar players face off-court adversity throughout the course of their careers.  The difference between them and Carter is that they harness their off-court trouble, too, for further motivation.  Following Jordan’s initial loss of desire to play basketball after his father passed away, he came back to the league with a vengeance and flat-out DOMINATED the NBA and won 3 more championships.  When everyone gave Kobe a hard time about his sexual assault trial in Colorado, he would have some of the best games of his career – sometimes on the same day as court appearances.  By no means am I saying Vince is a bad guy by letting his family problems affect him; I’m only pointing out that the adversity of some players negatively affect their performance more so than others. Carter was always just wired differently, from a mental and emotional standpoint, than other superstars.

Jordan was wired in a way that he could harness all his emotions - including the
trauma from the murder of his father - and win multiple championships

Carter shot a whole lot of ill-advised jumpers
throughout his career

His personality and upbringing aside, there are legitimate faults of Vince on the basketball court.  In terms of his play, he always had the physical gifts to be a fantastic all-around player.  But he could never put an end to the criticism of his game that the basketball gurus pointed out.  For one, he was never a top-notch defender.  This goes back to his complacency as a player and the aforementioned quote to John Thompson – where he doesn’t see a need to put in effort to guard players, most of who weren’t nearly as talented.  His offensive game has been equally baffling.  The one thing I could never understand is why he constantly falls in love with his jump shot.  Carter is an extremely streaky shooter, so you often see him throw up a ton of shots when he thinks he’s feeling it.  This draws the bulk of his criticism:  he’s tremendously gifted at driving to the basket, and his team has great success when he tenaciously drives to the rim.  In that situation, many positive things can happen: he either finishes at the basket, draws fouls, or creates plays for his teammates.  Good things happen when he drives to the basket, yet he often finds himself settling for jump shots.  The only part of his decision making that I don’t criticize is his passing; of all areas of his game that people tend to scrutinize, he sure is an underrated passer.  Carter never made the most of his abilities, and it seemed to be due more to his mental mistakes than physical wear and tear. 

The other main problem with Vince has been his reputation in the clutch.  The thing that’s haunted him the most is that he never seems to come through when games are on the line.  Sure, he’s hit a handful of game-tying or game-winning 40 foot bombs in relatively meaningless games.  But in crucial playoff games, Vince has never been very reliable – a theme that followed him ever since the aforementioned potential game-winner against Philly in 2001. Two incidents that come to mind are Carter’s inexplicable turnover in a pivotal Game 4 vs. Cleveland in 2007 (on top of a horrible 6-23 shooting night), as well as the two free throws he missed in the closing seconds of Game 2 vs. Boston in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals (which put the Magic in an insurmountable 0-2 hole before heading to Boston).   Both New Jersey and Orlando got fed up of his shortcomings and dumped him.  He was such a disappointment to the Magic that they concocted trade that sent him to Phoenix in exchange for Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu – a trade that was essentially a huge admission of error for when Smith let Turkoglu sign with Toronto and acquired Vince Carter after a run to the NBA Finals in 2009, in hopes that Vince would provide late-game scoring against elite teams in the playoffs.

Since this last-second shot that he missed in Game 7 vs. Philly in the 2001
Conference Semifinals, Carter could never redeem himself in crunch time

Carter may not have lived up to the hype,
but at least he does his part in the community

Ultimately, Carter’s fall has been mostly mental.  Say what you want about his injuries, but the truth is that Carter’s mentality turned out not to be conducive to become a true NBA champion and legend.  Make no mistake:  when all is said and done, Vince will still have had great success in the NBA and has already established his legacy.  Few have ever displayed the array of athleticism and talent at his level while also carrying the demeanor of a humble and respectful role model.  At the same time, few can be considered bigger disappointments than Vince.  Allen Iverson can also be seen as a tragic figure, but he wasn’t blessed with all the physical attributes that Vince once had; in retrospect, Iverson really maximized his potential.  Vince is truly is one of the nicest guys in the league, which somewhat softens the blow of criticism from the overall NBA community for his letdown; he is well-liked among his teammates and peers, as well as fans everywhere outside of Toronto.  Whether it was by choice or by injuries, he just never maintained his once cream-of-the-crop stature - and lost the universal acknowledgement as a sure-fire Hall of Famer.   

Winning Ain't Easy

On the early morning of Friday, March 4, 2011, NASA launched a Taurus XL rocket containing the Glory payload – a satellite designed to study the Earth’s climate.  Minutes into the launch, the Taurus vehicle’s fairing – a protective shroud that protects the satellite through the thick of the Earth’s atmosphere before entering space – failed to separate.  This led to mission failure, as satellites cannot reach its desired orbit with that extra weight.  No matter how unlikely these mishaps are, mission failures are bound to happen.  However, two of the other eight previous Taurus flights also failed.  What makes this recent failure that much more disappointing and head-scratching is that the previous Taurus rocket launch carrying the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite – one Taurus mission prior to Glory – failed in the same manner as the Glory mission.  So, the "isolated incident" rationale is not to be used as an excuse.

NASA’s Launch Services Program has launched several successful missions and injected many satellites into orbit, thus making mission success often taken for granted.  A member of NASA, you’re put in a tough position when your rocket fails to get a satellite to space successfully; when your launch vehicle fails, you let a lot of customers down:  first, the satellite company hoping to get into space via your rocket.  The other equally important customer (if not more important) that becomes disappointed is the public, whose tax money contributes to these critical missions.  I, as a first-hand witness, can say that NASA did everything that was feasibly possible, anchored by the discretion of some of the smartest people in the world, to mitigate this failure scenario for the past two years.  Somehow, it happened again.  Although all angles were deemed covered, something slipped through the cracks.  Point is, there’s so many variables that it’s hard to fault anything in particular for these disappointments, and all you can do is try not to get discouraged, learn from your mistakes, and go back to the drawing board.

This harsh lesson translates to many things, including the NBA.  As much as you hear about teams like the Lakers and Spurs, who historically have made winning look so easy, there are so many other teams out there that show how hard it is to have postseason success.  In reality, there have been a ton of quality teams who have not quite been able to get over the hump – either running out of gas or coming up empty on luck.  Just as NASA was unable to prevent another mishap from happening, many NBA teams have come up short in their bid for an NBA championship – regardless of all the lessons learned, re-tooling, and development of their team.  

Metaphorically speaking, there are a handful of great teams out there whose fortunes match that of the Taurus rocket.  As a result, it’s hard for any fan (i.e. customer) to trust a team who always comes up short, just as it will be for any satellite customer (or tax payer) to trust putting their multi-million dollar satellite onto a Taurus.  While it may be shortsighted and unfair to pin such a negative connotation on teams and the Taurus program that way, sometimes that’s just the way it is. 

Take some NBA teams for example.  In the last decade (2000-09), only 5 teams won the NBA title:  the Lakers, Spurs, Pistons, Heat, and Celtics.  In the previous decade (1990-99), there were only 4 title teams (Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs).  You would think the NBA hasn’t been competitive at all just by those stats.  The reality is that some great teams just flat out come up short.  Let’s look at some of these teams that, no matter how much effort is put into building a championship caliber squad, somehow lose control of their destiny and experience routine failure:

Orlando Magic

If Shaq and Penny got along, Orlando may
have had more success

Most regular seasons for the Magic have been very promising – both in the Shaq (92-96) and Dwight (04 to present) eras.  But in each of those seasons in which they were poised to win it all, a variety of issues kept them from bringing a championship to Orlando.  When Shaq was in town, he and Penny Hardaway formed the best point guard-center tandem in the league.  Regrettably, they were not the best friends in the world.  The two of them were constantly feuding, often finding themselves competing for the spotlight both on and off the court.  In 96, Shaq fled to sign a $120 million contract with the Lakers.  In 99, Penny’s career began to fade due to injuries (including the notorious career-destroying microfracture knee surgery) and he was traded to Phoenix.  Since then, he continued to battle injuries for the remainder of his once-promising career.

Then came the Tracy McGrady era.  Now, many see him as a fragile guy who’s completely jumped the shark.  But ten years ago, he was an unbelievable all-around talent who was considered by some to be better than Kobe Bryant.  But in this era, it wasn’t just T-Mac that gave Orlando false hope.  As every Orlando fan hates to remember, Grant Hill signed a seven-year, $93 contract with the Magic in 2000 – only to suffer one devastating ankle injury after another and play a mere 47 games in his first four seasons with the team.  After these injuries and the Magic’s annual playoff failures, Otis Smith gave up on the Hill-McGrady experiment, traded T-Mac to Houston in 2004 and sent Hill to Phoenix in 2007.  T-Mac ended up having a few more good seasons in Houston (remember the ridiculous 13 points in 33 seconds in an improbable comeback win vs. San Antonio?), but he eventually lost most of his explosiveness due to nagging injuries.  That makes 4 immensely talented players the Magic lost:  Shaq, Penny, T-Mac, and Grant Hill – the latter 3 whose careers were derailed by injury.  If Dwight Howard ends up leaving Orlando in 2012, the Magic could be the only team I can think of to lose so many superstar players to free agency and/or injury. 

The T-Mac and Hill experiment failed miserably

T-Mac and Hill were soon forgotten when Dwight Howard and company revitalized the Magic and made them contenders once again.  When Hedo Turkoglu came into his own (and won Most Improved Player in 2008 along the way), Orlando was a force to be reckoned with.  As I just wrote the other day, they still have a chance to get their act together and surprise a lot of people in the East.  They’ll always miss Mikael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, but as long as Otis Smith remains willing enough to spend money and make trades, their future should hold some more Finals appearances.  That is, if they can keep Dwight..

Indiana Pacers

As a future Hall-of-Famer and undisputed face of the franchise, Reggie Miller came so close to winning the title.  But, two main things came in his way:  Michael Jordan (who was actually responsible for MANY teams in the 90s ending up never winning a title) and Ron Artest.  Jordan’s Bulls ousted the Pacers every year in the late 90s, including an epic 7-game series in the 1998 Eastern Conference Finals (where Miller forced a game 7 by hitting a clutch 3 to win Game 6).  In 2000, Miller finally made an NBA Finals appearance, only to be overwhelmed by a much more talented Lakers squad.  Suddenly in 2004, the Pacers found themselves to be in the discussion as elite contenders when Jermaine O’Neal developed into an elite post player and Ron Artest came on board and emerged as one of the game’s best two-way players (i.e. both offensive and defensive prowess).  In an unfortunate turn of events, things got ugly in a November game vs. the Pistons at the Palace of Auburn Hills.  After Artest committed a hard foul in the waning moments of the game, Ben Wallace retaliated (as the Pacers were handily winning that game already and took offense to Artest’s timing for the hard foul).  Artest actually kept his calm at the time and didn’t retaliate against Wallace (though not many would).  That is, he was calm until an idiot fan threw a beer at Artest.  The rest was history – Artest was suspended for the rest of the year, and then Miller retired at the conclusion of that season.

The Artest melee derailed the Pacers season - and perhaps their franchise

Unfortunately for the Pacers, the infamous brawl completely derailed the franchise.  In fact, alcohol would be forever banned from ALL NBA arenas in the 4^th quarter, essentially spoiling the fun for all NBA fans in going to games.  Anyway, Indiana has not recovered since.  Pacers GM Larry Bird will keep trying to build a roster with good character.  Sadly, in trying to “clean up” the image of the team, Bird got rid of talent as much as he got rid of questionable characters.  At one point, there were many controversial claims being thrown around that the team was way too “white.”  At one point during the 2008-09 season, it was hard to dismiss the claim; they had Travis Diener, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts, Rasho Nesterovic, and Troy Murphy all on the roster.

Now, the Pacers are but a mediocre team who are better off in a rebuilding phase.  Bird has tried building the team around Danny Granger, but he is slowly coming to the realization that Granger is just a solid player (i.e. not a superstar) and thus not a centerpiece he can build a team around.  He didn’t even get much playing time last summer on Team USA in the World Championships over the likes of Andre Iguodala and Rudy Gay.  Hopefully, Bird can either get a good draft pick or trade Granger for some future pieces.  As a small market team, it will be hard to land any big-time free agents – especially on a rebuilding team.  That said, only time will tell if the Pacers will ever be competitive in the near future. 

Utah Jazz

This is yet another team that fell victim to the Jordan era, losing to the Bulls in back-to-back NBA Finals in 97 and 98.  Karl Malone and John Stockton became a household-named pair and brought almost 2 decades of great basketball to Utah.  If Jordan didn’t come back from retirement (the first time), Utah would have had two championships.  They could never capitalize after Jordan retired in 98, as the Spurs and Lakers began to dominate the West. 

The post-Malone-and-Stockton phase came to an end, but Sloan was able to keep the Jazz relevant in the West.  F Andrei Kirilenko had his best years following the retirement of the dynamic duo, and the team drafted Deron Williams in 04.  They were also able to acquire Carlos Boozer, who betrayed Cleveland in a much, much worse manner than LeBron did. He was released from Cleveland because the (literally) blind Cavs owner was generous enough to rid him of his low-paying rookie contract (as he was a 2^nd round pick) so that he could immediately sign him to a more lucrative one.  Then, Boozer completely backstabbed him and the city of Cleveland to take an even bigger contract with Utah.  Nobody deserved to be hated this much by an entire city more than Boozer.  That is, until LeBron left town in the manner he did. Anyway, even with a solid team, Utah fell short in several playoff series – especially against the Lakers.  That’s a team that Utah could not manage to beat, getting swept by LA in two straight years. 

18 seasons of great basketball together
- but no titles to show for it

This year, the team was in turmoil.  Boozer, the least trustworthy guy in the world to re-sign with a team, bailed to join Chicago last offseason.  Despite acquiring Al Jefferson from Minnesota, the team struggled.  When the team began to plummet in the standings, Jerry Sloan retired.  Deron Williams was traded to the Nets, as he fell out of favor with management and apparently was to blame for Sloan’s sudden departure.  In the end, it was a wise move.  The West will eventually lose Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant to retirement, and Utah has created some cap space and acquired some great pieces – including promising F Derrick Favors and some draft picks.  They are probably in for a few rough seasons to come, but they do have assets for the future.  Not too reassuring, I know, but that’s more promising than the outlook of some of the other teams on this list.

Portland Trailblazers

We’ve all become aware of the injury curse that these poor Blazers have faced the last few seasons.  Devastating injuries to seemingly every key player on the roster, including superstar Brandon Roy and the #1 overall pick of the 2007 draft – Greg Oden, have hindered their progress as a team. 

If Sheed and the Blazers weren't so volatile,
the franchise would be in much better shape

In the late 90s and early 2000s, when the team had an absolutely filthy-loaded roster (Scottie Pippen, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Kemp, Steve Smith, Brian Grant, Jermaine O’Neal, Arvydas Sabonis, Detlef Schrempf, Bonzi Wells, Damon Stoudamire, Greg Anthony), their shortcomings perplexed the minds of many in the league.  The most painful memory came in the 2000 Western Conference Finals:  Portland had a 14 point lead in the 4^th quarter in Game 7 vs. the Lakers.  To this day, I have never seen such an epic collapse with such high stakes and by such a talented team – except maybe by Dallas in 2006 (see below).  The difference between this collapse and that of Dallas’ is that Portland let Brian freakin’ Shaw tear them apart.  Dallas was a victim of Dwyane Wade’s coming out party (and referees, but so were the Blazers).  The team, as constituted, never quite recovered from that crushing loss.  With guys like Wallace and Stoudamire getting busted for smoking weed, the famous “Portland Jail-Blazers” label was put on the team.  Subsequently, much like Larry Bird did with the Pacers, GM Paul Allen commenced a fire sale of the team and replaced all the knuckleheads with high character guys.

Is there hope for this team in the future?  It’s looking bleak, but I really hope I’m wrong.  This year, the Gerald Wallace trade should really give them a boost.  LaMarcus Aldridge, the Western Conference Player of the Month for February (and huge admission of error by the NBA for not naming him an All-Star), has become a beast.  With a tandem of Miller and Roy anchored by Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby in the frontcourt, this team should be very solid and can scare some of the top teams in the playoff bracket.  Hopefully in the long term, Oden can come back and live up to some of the hype he got when he was drafted four years ago.  With GM Paul Allen and coach Nate McMillan running the show, these guys can be contenders for years to come – if only they can shake the injury bug. 

Sacramento Kings

This team was closest to contending with Chris Webber in his prime from 2000-03.  C-Webb, when healthy, was one of the best power forwards in the league.  He had perhaps the best court vision of any 4-man in that era.  In 2002, C-Webb led a very stacked Kings team – with Mike Bibby, Doug Christie, Vlade Divac, Hedo Turkoglu and Peja Stojakovic – to a 3-2 series lead in the Western Conference Finals over the Lakers.  Then came the controversial Game 6 in Los Angeles, where the refs basically gave the game to the Lakers.  The Lakers attempted 40 free throws to the King’s 20, including a 27-9 advantage in attempts from the line in the 4^th quarter.  You read that right – 27 free throws in the 4^th quarter alone!  To this day, Kings fans are in complete disbelief that the team lost that series. 

If Horry missed this shot, the Kings may very well have won a title or two

In the 2003 playoffs, Webber suffered a career-threatening knee injury in the middle of their series vs. Dallas that effectively killed the prime of his career.  Because of this tragic timeline, everyone will always wonder what could have been if the Kings won the 2002 series.  Their biggest enemy, in most eyes, were the refs of that Game 6.  It also didn’t help that in Game 4, when Sacramento led the series 2-1, lost the game on a buzzer-beating three by Robert Horry.  The worst part of that from a Kings fan’s standpoint is the fact that Horry even got the ball at that particular moment in the game.  It was one of the luckiest and fate-altering breaks I’ve seen to this day in a game.

Now, the Kings are obviously in a rebuilding mode.  I got a chance to watch this particular Kings team in person on Wednesday night vs. Orlando (in Sacramento), where rookie DeMarcus Cousins showed what kind of player he can be by out-beasting Dwight Howard.  Along with Cousins, I expect to see a young and talented team struggle to figure out how to win games.  Tyreke Evans, last year’s rookie of the year, has battled plantar fasciitis this season (seemingly every year, a star player seems to have a down year because of it – including Joakim Noah, Rasheed Wallace, Tim Duncan, etc.).  With that injury’s track record, Kings fans should not be worried about Evans’ relatively disappointing season.   What they should worry Cousins, who many have called the most immature rookie of all time.  If he doesn’t learn how to control his emotions, he could very well waste his enormous talent. 

There is hope from a basketball standpoint for the Kings.  Unfortunately, there is the non-basketball side of things that is going to devastate Sacramento fans:  the team will probably move to Anaheim soon.  If that happens (and I hope it doesn’t), the Pacific Northwest will have lost 2 great franchises (the Seattle Sonics being the first) within a few years.  The one thing worse than having a losing team like the Cavaliers is not having a team at all, and it’s going to be sad to see the die-hard fans of Sacramento lose their team too.  

Phoenix Suns

When Barkley used to bash D’Antoni’s apparent inability to get his team to play defense, D’Antoni took a shot right back at Charles, saying Barkley choked away a championship.  This, of course, referenced the 1993 NBA Finals, most notably when Phoenix blew a late lead against Jordan’s Bulls in Game 6 on a game-winning three by John Paxson.  Phoenix never got back to the Finals, and Barkley was traded to Houston for some more disappointing seasons.  Speaking of Barkley – in the future, I’ll write an equivalent post on best players to never win a title.  He would definitely be up there on the list.

When Steve Nash signed with (or should I say, rejoined) Phoenix in 2004, he paired up with a coach (Mike D’Antoni) who was perfectly conducive to his playing style preference.  Then began the Seven Seconds or Less (SSL) era – where the Suns revitalized the NBA with a blistering and exciting up-and-down offense.  Despite subsequent playoff failures, they had incredible regular season success and somewhat dispelled the notion that fast-paced offense can’t win games.  Since then, many NBA teams have tried to emulate this model.  An exciting brand of basketball brought great success to the franchise.

Nash has had his share of blows to
the face in playoff action

Unfortunately, the exciting SSL era did not bring any titles to Phoenix.  In most seasons since 2004, they were legitimate contenders.  They seemed to get one bad break after another – Joe Johnson broke his nose in the 05 playoffs and lost in the 2^nd round.  Thanks to Cheap Shot Bob (Robert Horry) in 2007, Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended for Game 6 vs. San Antonio.  Horry infamously clocked Nash into the scorer’s table late in Game 4, leading to Stoudemire and Diaw coming to his rescue and thereby getting suspended 1 game each by the league for leaving the proximity of the Phoenix bench.  Had Stoudemire and Diaw been available for Game 5 at home, Phoenix would likely have gone up 3-2 in the series with 2 chances to close out the Spurs instead of going down in six games.  Of course, you’ll see how classy Nash is in that clip by not publicly taking offense to Horry’s cheap shot (and perhaps his greatest clutch “shot” ever). 

In the 2010 playoffs, Nash finally tasted victory against San Antonio after they swept the Spurs in the 2^nd round.  The expression “monkey off his back” doesn’t even begin to describe what that must have felt like, given the previous shortcomings.  Sadly, that didn’t spell the end of their bad breaks.  In Game 6 of the Conference Finals vs. the Lakers, Phoenix managed to force Kobe to throw an air ball in the closing seconds, only to see Ron Artest put it back and win the game (and series) for them.

If it weren’t for a few bad breaks – most of which were mired by Nash breaking his noze a few dozen times – they may have won a title or two.  Now, they are doomed for a few years of mediocrity unless they blow up the team and trade Nash.  That won’t happen, because Nash is way too classy and loyal to bail Phoenix.  Hopefully, Phoenix will be appealing enough of oa destination for future superstar free agents.  That’s only the start of what it will take to get this team back to contending status. 

Dallas Mavericks

If I were Mavs owner Mark Cuban, I would have lost all morale by now.  A team with all the ingredients – fantastic owner, great coaches, star players, die-hard fans – still have not been enough.  The problem with many teams is that they have front offices who aren’t willing to spend money to make their teams better.  This team is far from falling into that criteria. As a result, this much-maligned squad oft gets labeled for their lack of postseason success (regardless of regular season success), and many have tried emasculating Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki by questioning his toughness as a player. 

The 2006 Mavs rolled over and died after
nearly securing a championship

Dallas's playoff disappointments have been well-documented.  The most crushing blow had to be the aforementioned 2006 NBA Finals, where they were 6 minutes away from having an insurmountable 3-0 series lead vs. Miami.  Unfortunately for them, Dwyane Wade went completely ballistic and destroyed the team to rally his team and win the championship.  Dallas was clearly flustered by Miami’s comeback, and could never recover in that series.  Following that season, coach Avery Johnson had the Mavs completely locked in and focused to win a title.  The team won 66 games that season and was poised to make another title run. 

Side note about Miami:  did anyone see the 4^th quarter of Miami vs. LA last night?  How many times did I mention that Wade should be the go-to guy down the stretch?  Watch the highlights of that game; Wade came through in crucial moments on both ends – defending Kobe on one end, and breaking down the Laker defense by getting to the rim on the other end.  He made one great play after another and sealed the win.  The team snapped a long losing streak because they finally let LeBron defer to Wade.  LBJ is a great player – but seemingly only for the first 3 quarters.  

Anyway, the good news for Dallas is that they still have a chance.  And since they have been labeled as the-team-that-never-wins, they will be flying under the radar.  They have a lot to like about this season:  Tyson Chandler has emerged as a great defender who compliments Dirk perfectly.  Caron Butler may be back for the postseason.  Jason Kidd has been playing as well as he can for an old timer, even nabbing a triple double recently.  In fact, read this very interesting article by Ian Levy of the Dallas section of the TrueHoop network.  It’s a very convincing argument that Kidd may be THE most versatile player in NBA history, with respect to his ability to get triple doubles.  LeBron is seen as a guy who is a walking triple double, but Levy shows that Kidd should get that label. 

If Dallas happens to fall short somehow again this season, then I would forever write them off from contention (especially if they don’t’ have injury issues to blame it on).  But not yet.  Give them one more chance.

Now, by making this comprehensive analogy – comparing the Glory mission failure to sports teams – I do not mean to offend or belittle those who spent endless hours diligently working the OCO and Glory missions.  It’s merely a simplified explanation to relate the similar perspectives between the two entirely different topics.  In the same manner where you have so many talented and highly qualified engineers who are tainted by the OCO and Glory failures, you comparably have many great NBA teams who were never able to win a championship.   Hopefully, the Taurus program and the teams I listed and will see glory days (no pun intended) at some point in the near future.  Despite gloomy outlooks for most of these teams, nothing would be worse than never getting a chance.  In other words, nothing is worse than ending up like Seattle.  With a few lucky breaks, many of these franchises could easily have been in better shape.  But franchise-altering events - both instant and long term - have caused great disappointment.