Since moving here to Orlando three years ago, I've learned this: it goes without saying that Florida is a football state. With tons of teams to watch, 90% of the people here religiously watch college (Florida, Central Florida, Florida State, Miami, South Florida, Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Florida A&M) and/or pro (Buccaneers, Dolphins, Jaguars) football. Before this season, the fact that Orlando and Miami even have basketball teams has been a bit of an afterthought. Heck, the Heat even had to campaign for the team and make promos, urging fans to “Fan Up” for Heat games, even after the team made arguably the biggest off-season splash in NBA history. As for the Magic, they still don’t seem to get as much attention in this area as they should. Maybe that will change, especially with their spectacular brand new arena. Mind you, they are both relatively new NBA teams; the Heat became a franchise in the 1988-89 season, and the Magic joined the league one season later. Football has obviously been around much longer.
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| With a solid team and new arena, Orlando has potential to be a better basketball city |
For once in my current state of residence, though, the sports talk now revolves around basketball. Last night’s instant classic Heat-Magic game, where the Magic made a furious rally to overcome a 24 point deficit (the 2nd largest comeback in Magic history) to beat the Heat, has Florida sports fans talking basketball for a change. If these two teams were in bigger basketball towns like NYC, Boston or LA, you would be even more sick to death of hearing about them.
Orlando and Miami have had different issues, but very similar seasons in terms of their inconsistency. Both teams, unlike the pro football teams, are legitimate championship contenders. Both of these teams have had similar phases of ups and downs this season; they are both dealing with integrating new players in a fluid roster and trying to find an identity. As a result, both teams have struggled to maintain consistency. One night after their impressive comeback vs. Miami, the Magic faltered against Chicago. On this same night, Miami could not recover from its collapse vs Orlando and got torched by San Antonio. It seems that both teams go through phases of erratic play, and we have no idea how far they will get in the playoffs even though they are both legitimate contenders.
ORLANDO MAGIC
Season Summary
Until recently, this team has had a very disappointing season. Fresh off two very solid seasons – including two conference finals (and one NBA Finals) appearances – Orlando was widely considered to be a contender for the 2011 NBA title. But after months of inconsistent and subpar basketball, turmoil has surrounded the team: a blockbuster trade (Vince Carter, Mikael Pietrus, Marcin Gortat and Rashard Lewis shipped out; Hedo Turkoglu, Jason Richardson, Gilbert Arenas, and Earl Clark brought in) happened and a difficult adjustment period ensued, Dwight Howard has repeatedly expressed frustration with his teammates, and rumors swirled with regard to the possibility of Howard bailing Orlando as a free agent in 2012.
Lingering Issues
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| Orlando still sorely misses the defensive presence of G/F Mikael Pietrus and C Marcin Gortat |
You can’t just dismiss Orlando’s issues on the court, even after their inspiring come-from-behind victory against Miami on Thursday night. Lots of questions surround Orlando as they press forward. They still miss Pietrus and Gortat dearly, as they were the “glue” guys on this team (especially on defense). Two of the newcomers – Hedo and Arenas – are clearly not the players they once were. Hedo was slightly rejuvenated right after the trade after basically rotting for two years in Toronto and Phoenix, but has struggled as of late. Arenas has been somewhat of a non-factor, and does not appear to be a good fit with starter Jameer Nelson. In fact, Nelson has played better when Arenas sat out with injuries. If Orlando ends up having a disappointing season, I can’t see Magic GM Otis Smith keeping both of them.
With Gortat’s departure, the Magic have still not found a center to back up Howard (I’m going out on a limb and saying that Malik Allen ain’t gonna cut it as a center). If they were to face teams with multiple active bigs on their roster (e.g. Boston, Chicago, LA), their thin front line will be exposed. Also, Pietrus’s absence really hurts the Magic’s perimeter defense, which is what Howard has been especially critical of lately. With average perimeter defenders, it will be tough matching up with the NBA’s elite scorers in the Eastern Conference during the playoffs.
Do they have a chance?
Having said all that, you can conclude that when the Magic are engaged and focused, they can still beat anybody in a seven-game playoff series. Howard has considerably improved his low-post offense, especially in the past month (approaching a FG% of 70 for the month!). His presence and ability to draw double and triple teams will always create offense and lead to open perimeter shots. As the D’Antoni era of Phoenix will teach you, teams live and die by the three point shot. But Jason Richardson is still deadly from 3, as evidenced by his barrage of long-bombs that helped Orlando rally against Miami last night. No matter what, they are never out of the game as long as Howard is crashing the boards and J-Rich is hitting 3’s. The other thing about J-Rich: he, unlike Vince Carter, is CLUTCH. That's an intangible that the Magic have not really had since Rashard Lewis started shopping at GNC (and consequently got suspended for 10 games at the beginning of last year, which he apparently never quite recovered from).
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| Hedo's known for his clutch play - at least with the Magic |
While he has not been playing very well lately, Turkoglu will be a key player come postseason. He’s a gifted playmaker for a player his size, and is one of the few guys who knows how to throw good entry passes to Dwight in the post. He, like J-Rich, is also very clutch. In his previous stint with Orlando, Hedo was the go-to guy for coach Stan Van Gundy down the stretch of close games. In addition to late-game play creating and shot making, he and J-Rich have the potential to create as many match-up problems with opponents today as he did with Lewis in their 2009 playoff run.
So, there’s still hope for this team. When everything clicks, you will see results like their game against Miami. Still, Van Gundy has his hands full to address all the concerns in an effort to get his team ready. If they’re not careful, they could slip in the standings and end up losing in the first round. If they get their act together, they can win the title. They’re much like last year’s version of the Celtics – a team limping though the regular season, but with potential to make noise in the playoffs. Since the team has had very successful regular seasons the past few years, they might just be bored with the routine of the regular season. Maybe they are only engaged when they face the truly elite teams.
MIAMI HEAT
Season Summary
Much like their in-state rivals, Miami has had a comparatively up-and-down season. An adjustment period was to be expected after Wade, Bosh, and LeBron joined forces last summer. But after struggling out of the gates and starting 9-8, chaos followed. Doubters questioned LeBron and D-Wade’s cohesion. Team captain and designated tough guy Udonis Haslem went down with a torn foot ligament. Mike Miller was still out with a thumb injury he suffered in the pre-season. Head coach Erik Spoelstra was rumored to be fired and replaced by team president Pat Riley (a déjà vu scenario from the 2005-06 season, in which Riley took over for Stan Van Gundy after an 11-10 start). Since then, however, the Heat managed to establish themselves as an elite team and still currently hold the 2nd best record in the East (behind Boston).
Lingering Issues
Even though the Big Three have found a way to co-exist, they still struggle against the better teams of the NBA; they are 0-7 against Boston, Dallas, and Chicago. Also, Spoelstra still needs to iron out the team’s late game strategies; they are 2-12 against winning teams in games decided by five points or less, though the merit of that stat has mixed opinions by some of the best basketball minds. Miami's epic collapse vs. Orlando yesterday is no fluke; they have struggled mightily with holding leads as a result of their unstable offense.
The most common question that’s been asked all season long is still valid: with the game on the line, should LeBron or D-Wade get the ball? I have already voiced my opinion on the two players, and I’m not changing my opinion: D-Wade should get the ball in late-game situations. LBJ has clearly been unable to convert in these situations, especially on wide-open jump shots. Miami has lost 4 of their last 5, and LeBron was MIA in those four losses down the stretch – reverting back to his Cleveland days by running his very ineffective and perplexing 1-on-5 offense. Either Wade or Spoelstra needs to speak up and take the ball out of LeBron’s hands in those situations.
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| When the Big Three sit, the other Heat need to step up |
Late-game situations aside, the Heat need contributions from the rest of the team. Chris Bosh has been fairly inconsistent, but he still contributes defensively. James Jones, Mike Miller, Mike Bibby and Eddie House really need to be more aggressive, as the Heat offense has become somewhat predictable. On defense, elite teams tend to pick Miami apart – especially in the paint and on closeout perimeter shots (as evidenced by tonight’s game vs. the Spurs). That’s something Spoelstra needs to address with his bigs – Joel Anthony, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, and Erick Dampier. Of course, Z is the only offensive threat out of the three, so they basically play 4 on 5 on the offensive end with Anthony or Dampier at the 5 position.
Do they have a chance?
Having a team with multiple superstars is kind of like having multiple job offers: it can be a challenging predicament, but it’s a great situation to be in. In their first season together, the Big 3 will only gain cohesion over time. Furthermore, the much-maligned Heat bench will get better as lethal shooters Mike Bibby and Mike Miller try to find their stride. Haslem will also return sometime next month and bolster their thin front line. Also, the veterans on their team will pick up their play when the playoffs come around. Finally, if they remain the East’s 2nd seed, they will basically have a practice round to gel at the start the playoffs before having to face the top contenders. The question is whether they will gel in time to be good enough to face those top teams.
PLAYOFF OUTLOOK
A lot can happen in the last 20+ games of the regular season, and both teams have a chance to get their act together by the time the playoffs begin. For starters, neither team should have much trouble with their first round opponents. Since the playoffs never have back-to-back games, players battling injuries will benefit from a minimum one-day rest in between games. This format has generally benefited injury-prone players – especially Wade and Nelson – and will come in handy come playoff time.
This is obviously all speculative, but let’s go through a playoff scenario: say the current seeds hold and Miami and Orlando end up 2nd and 4th, respectively, in the conference. As I mentioned, Miami would play (and beat) one of the weaker East teams (most likely either Philly or Indiana) in the 1st round. Orlando will most likely play Atlanta, who has never matched up well with the Magic. That would mean Miami would likely face Chicago and Orlando would match up with Boston in Round 2.
As I said after the trade deadline, I actually like Orlando’s chances against Boston, only because they lost Kendrick Perkins. Would the Magic win? I don’t think so, but they definitely have a better shot now that Perkins is gone. Unless Shaq can contain Howard one-on-one, Dwight will command double/triple teams and Orlando can finally play their inside-outisde game against Boston. Of course, this will all depend on how hot JJ Redick, J-Rich, and the rest of the shooters will be. But if they’re on, they can make the Celtics sweat.
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| Miami-Chicago would make for an electrifying playoff series |
Chicago is obviously a tough matchup for Miami, but I think they would strongly prefer them over Boston. The Bulls have been a team on the rise, but have yet to get over the hump. In fact, this is their first year as legitimate title contenders. Although they’re 2-0 against Miami in the regular season so far, Chicago will have to prove to themselves that they take down a fellow title contender. I will get into this further when the playoffs start, but it’s definitely fun talking about the possibility of these two teams matching up and Chicago definitely has the talent to shock the world.
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| D-Wade and D-Howard are nightmare match-ups to each other's teams |
If the two teams somehow faced each other, I can easily envision a 7 game series. With Miami having no answer for Howard, the Heat will be forced to commit double teams. On the flip side, Orlando’s woes on perimeter D will really open things up for LeBron and D-Wade, especially in fast-break situations. Before their collapse yesterday, Miami has actually outplayed Orlando for the most part. But in the playoffs, games tend to slow down and tighten up. This would favor Orlando, as they are the better team in the half court offense. There are still a lot of questions that need to be answered before these two teams can even get to this point, but a head-to-head playoff series would be a heavyweight slugfest. Man, the playoffs are going to be great – in both conferences – from the 2nd round onward.
Since there finally seems to be a buzz about these two teams, the passion of sports fans in the state of Florida with regard to basketball is finally somewhat resembling that of other fans in big market basketball towns. They’ve got a long way to go, but this is a good start. As a result, you’re going to see the same roller coaster reactions you see at bigger market basketball cities. When either team struggles, there is a mass panic reaction. When they put together a good stretch of play, the championship talk begins and bandwagon fans arrive. If these two teams face each other in the playoffs, you better believe the state Florida – and the nation – will be watching.
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