Analyzing the Effect of Trade Rumors on NBA Stars

Note:  this article will be published on FanSided's Saving the Skyhook blog.

With the March 15^th NBA trade deadline looming, many players league-wide are wondering what jersey they are going to don by week’s end.  Although it’s hard for the average sports fan to feel sympathy for multi-millionaire athletes dealing with uncertain futures, you have to wonder just how much the psyche of these players are being affected by swirling trade rumors.  One would think that the growing shroud of uncertainty constantly hanging over them has to wear on them in one way or another – both on and off the court. 

We’ve seen several high-profile players being shopped around over the last few years.  This season has been no different; rumors involving Dwight Howard Rajon Rondo, and Pau Gasol have been under the most scrutiny.  How have they been personally handling these rumors?  And what can we expect from them going forward after the trade deadline this Thursday? 

Gasol (left) and Rondo (right) have been saying all the right things,
but how are they really handling the constant trade rumors?

We recently heard Kobe Bryant stick up for his teammate Gasol by calling out GM Mitch Kupchak and the Lakers’ management.  He was publicly trying to relay just how difficult it is for Gasol (or any player being shopped around) to put his whole heart into playing for a team that’s actively trying to trade him.  Due to the sensitive nature of trade rumors and the private manner in which teams address them to the media, we have a relatively limited idea of how much of an effect they have on the implicated players.  We just saw the Lakers management tell their players to cut the external chatter short, in an attempt to minimize the drama caused from trade rumors.  So unless players publicly speak about their feelings, our opportunities to gauge their psyche are limited.  For that reason, the performance of these players in the midst of trade rumors may be our best way to make an assessment. 

Now, let’s examine a sample of prominent players that were involved in trade rumors and blockbuster trades over the last 10 seasons.   Whether these players were driving the trade talks themselves, or their respective teams put players on the trading block against their will, here are some of the more notable cases below.  The blocks highlighted in green denote a 10% improvement after the trade, while the red blocks indicate at least a 10% decline in the respective stats as shown.  For better resolution quality, please click on the figure.  Special thanks to ESPN TrueHoop blogger Ian Levy of Hickory High, who was a great help in putting these numbers together. 

If you go by a case-by-case basis, some players on this list wanted to be traded, and some didn’t.  And some, well, could have cared less.  Obviously, every player’s situation was different, and many variables factored into each player’s performance.  Nonetheless, the before/after comparisons are something very interesting to look at in light of Kobe Bryant’s aforementioned assessment on the impact of trade rumor drama.

Vince Carter made the biggest improvement of any star traded in the last ten  years

Bar none, Vince Carter gained the single-most benefit from the resolution of his situation after being traded from Toronto to New Jersey – and his gargantuan improvement shown in these stats reflect that.  But as he admitted, this was largely attributed to his half-hearted effort during his waning days in Toronto.  More than any star player in the last decade, Vince’s performance was directly correlated to how motivated he was.  In Toronto, he publicly criticized Raptors management for failing to put together enough talent around him to build a contending team.  When traded to New Jersey, he did all the things he failed to do during his last couple years in Toronto:  attacking the basket, playing some defense, and just putting in more effort overall.  Playing alongside Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson was a huge motivator for him, as he spent years being the lone star in Toronto.  All of this led to a vast improvement in nearly every statistical category.  Of course, this was all short-lived, and Carter was not always engaged in subsequent years to date.  To learn about his ups and downs some more, take a look at my in-depth take on his career as a whole, which tries to explain his sporadic effort over the years. 

C-Webb (right) did not find greener pastures in Philly
playing alongside AI (left)

In contrast to Vince’s case, some players didn't exactly benefit from being traded.  Of everyone listed here, Chris Webber seems to be the one who suffered the most from changing jerseys.  Of course, injuries played into his decline (and eventual retirement) more than anything.   Nonetheless, then-Sixers GM Billy King’s experiment of pairing him up with Allen Iverson was obviously a failiure – as the Sixers only managed to obtain a 7^th seed and only win a single playoff game that season.  But given Webber’s and Iverson’s respective situations at the time – as two perennial All-Stars yet to win a title – both felt it was an experiment worth attempting.  I’m not entirely sure if Chris Webber was forcing his way out of Sacramento the same year he was traded, even though he did express a desire to leave before he became a free agent in 2001.  But I suspect that his decline was due to a combination of his injuries, his lack of cohesion with Iverson, and the realization that he had a pretty damn good team in Sacramento compared to his new team in Philly.

Dwight Howard has his eyes set elsewhere,
but is still playing well in Orlando

Unlike Rondo and Gasol, we know Dwight Howard has publicly requested to be traded.  Since he has been under the most scrutiny as far as trade rumors are concerned, let’s compare his situation to other superstar players demanding a trade in years past:  Shaq, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest (BTW, I still refuse to call him by his new name), and Carmelo Anthony.   Shaq showed slightly greater improvement and efficiency after being traded, which was to be expected after a bad situation (the most memorable part being his feud with Kobe Bryant) got worse in LA prior to being traded.  But of course, pairing up with the young but highly-gifted Dwyane Wade had something to do with that.  Iverson and Artest welcomed a change of scenery, but their +’s and –‘s in their stat comparisons were a relative wash; Iverson’s shot attempts went down, but he had to get used to having a high-volume shooting teammate in Melo.  Years later, Melo benefited from more shot attempts being in Mike D’Antoni’s system, but overall has been playing at about the same level since the trade.  So in the end, the superstars we’ve seen publicly demand a trade have neither improved nor regressed on a significant level.   

While we don’t see too much of a distinct pattern (at least, not to the same degree as with Vince Carter and Chris Webber) with most of the players on this list – at least in terms of individual performance –  this analysis does show that there is some precedence to the situations of Howard, Gasol, and Rondo.  In terms of a prediction, it’s tough to see any of them improving from their already-solid productivity with their current teams.  All three have been able to put up stellar numbers regularly, but they have all expressed disdain over the lack of resolution on their respective situations.   Their individual performances have not suffered, but their uncertain futures have had an effect on the success of their teams as a whole.  We saw the 2010-11 Nuggets improve significantly after Melo’s departure, even with Melo maintaining his productivity in Denver.  So while trades and trade rumors do not have a huge overall effect on individual performance (with a few exceptions), teams as a whole are put at ease upon resolution of the trade talk.  

The Tragedy of Vince Carter

Does anyone ever stop and think, "What the heck happened to Vince Carter?!"

In high school, everyone is forced to read painful Shakespearean literature, which consisted mostly of tragedies.  The majority –if not all – of those novels had plots that made absolutely no sense to me, but they made enough sense for me to know that the protagonists in the stories were tragic figures.  Such is the basketball career of Vince Carter – a tragic figure whose story also doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  At one point, he was the undisputed heir to MJ himself – a voluminously gifted high flyer and dynamic scorer who rightfully earned the nickname ‘Half-Man, Half-Amazing.’  After a few promising seasons, a combination of effort (or lack thereof), a huge fall from popularity, and to some extent, a myriad of injuries, all completely derailed his career.  Today, he finds himself on the butt end of endless jokes, a lot of them resulting in modified nicknames like ‘Half-Man, Half-A-Season’ (says Charles Barkley) or ‘Half-Man, Half-Amazingly Washed Up’ (Bill Simmons).    After being one of the most popular players in the league, he gained a reputation that he was never able to shed – as a disappointing and underachieving player who never lived up to his hype for any logical reason.  

Players and fans were in awe of Vince Carter's
jaw-dropping athleticism

Carter’s hoops career started out glamorous, as he was selected with the 5^th overall pick out of UNC in the 1998 NBA Draft by Toronto (after being swapped for 4^th overall pick Antawn Jamison, a fellow UNC draftee).  In his first few seasons in the NBA, his freakish athleticism and explosiveness were unparalleled.  In the 1999-00 season, Vince’s popularity skyrocketed – especially after arguably the greatest Slam Dunk competition performance in the history of the contest.  He even topped that with the most insane in-game dunk ever, literally jumping over 7’2” Frederic Weis of France to throw one down.  NOBODY was ever able to do something like that in a game, and nobody ever will.  Despite playing for a Canadian franchise, Vince became immensely popular – voted a starter in 8 straight All-Star games – and continued to gain publicity in the NBA.    

2000-01 was really Carter’s best season, where he averaged a career-best 27.6 points per game on 46% shooting.  He also had his first taste for playoff success, leading the Raptors to a decisive 7^th game in the Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. Allen Iverson and the 76ers (the eventual Eastern Conference Champs that year).  In that series, Iverson and Carter exchanged offensive explosions, including a 54-point total by Iverson in Game 2 followed by Carter’s 50 in Game 3.  Game 7 went down to the wire, with Carter having an opportunity to win the game for Toronto on a fadeaway at the buzzer.  He missed, but it was hard to criticize him at the time – the Raptors were considered a heavy underdog and really gave the Sixers a run for their money.   

Carter’s first critics came when he opted to attend his UNC graduation the same morning of that Game 7 vs. Philly.  Many thought he took a big risk by traveling to Philadelphia from his graduation on game day.  However, other folks (myself included) found this to be admirable, so long as he didn’t play poorly in Game 7 (which he didn’t).  Would he have played any better had he not attended his graduation?  I have my doubts.  Although this action was defensible, it would only lead to a series of questions about his commitment to basketball and desire to improve in general.  

For the time being, there was a majority of enormous positive spotlight on VC.  Because of his success and belief that the Raptors would continue to build a contender around him, Carter re-signed with the Raptors that following offseason for 6 years and $94 million. The front office also spent $140 million to re-sign other key role players that were instrumental in their playoff run, including Antonio Davis, Alvin Williams, and Jerome Williams (aka the Junk Yard Dog).  Convinced that management was committed to build a winning product, Carter accepted the contract extension.  With things looking up for both Carter and the team, the sky was the limit for VC.  Or so we thought..

Much like his vertical, Vince's career potential was sky-high

Carter found new life on the Nets -
that is, for a little while

Questions about Vince’s commitment surfaced following his underwhelming performance in the next few seasons.  He was plagued by injury in the 2001-02 season, developing “jumper’s knee” in his left knee.  Adding to his frustration was his increasing loss of faith to team management, as they failed to acquire any other star players or improve the team during his tenure.  Following the frequent disagreements with team management and then-new head coach Sam Mitchell, Carter was traded to New Jersey (for 20 cents on the dollar, by the way).  After the trade, the initial decline in his popularity began.  In an interview with TNT’s John Thompson, he said something that would forever tarnish his reputation north of the border – when asked if he pushed himself as hard as he could with the Raptors, Carter replied “In years past, no.  I was fortunate to have the talent. You get spoiled when you're able to do a lot of things. You see that you don't have to work at it.”  That comment, taken somewhat out of context, was widely regarded in Canada as Carter’s admission for quitting on the Raptors and forcing his way out of town.  To this day, Raptors fans boo him mercilessly whenever he plays against his former team in Toronto.  Even Stan Van Gundy joked about this when Carter was booed as a member of Orlando, 5 years removed from his Toronto days: "That's a long time to hold a grudge."

The trade to New Jersey and the chance to team up with with future Hall of Fame point guard Jason Kidd would rejuvenate Carter’s career.  Following his last (and worst) season with Toronto – in which he only played 20 games and averaged a career-low 15.9 points per game on 41% shooting – Carter bounced back to All-Star form and scored 27.5 ppg (0.1 shy of his 2000-01 scoring average).  He and Kidd took the Nets into the playoffs for their first three consecutive years as teammates.  Carter appeared to regain his form, showing flashes of his old original athletic self along the way.  He and Kidd formed one of the NBA’s best backcourts, and they were considered legitimate championship contenders. 

Carter has yet to come through on his hunt for a title

Unfortunately, Carter’s performance would only tail off from there.  After the team failed to advance past the 2^nd round of the playoffs and continued to disappoint, Nets management decided to break up the team by trading Kidd to Dallas in the middle of the 2007-08 season.  At this stage in his career, Vince could not carry a mediocre team anymore and failed to make the playoffs in the following two seasons.  Even when he got traded to Orlando in 2009, he turned out to be a huge disappointment despite popular belief that he would play better on a legitimate contender - especially with a dominant center in Dwight Howard (more on that later).  I also thought playing for Orlando would rejuvenate his career, as he would be comfortable near his hometown (Daytona Beach, FL) and was approaching a contract year – two key motivators for any player.  Well, I was wrong.   Carter failed to fulfill the go-to scorer role that the Magic hoped for in acquiring him from New Jersey.  I still remember last season, where he shot 28%from the field in the month of January 2010.  Earlier this season, Magic GM Otis Smith got fed up of him and sent him away to Phoenix.  Now, he often finds himself to be a fourth or fifth option on offense – and lately has been sitting out entire 4^th quarters of games in favor of Mickael Pietrus, Grant Hill, or Jared Dudley. 

Now, this last paragraph you just read is the part of Vince’s story that makes no sense to me at all.  How did he fall this far from the top?  You could justify his waning years in Toronto and chalk that up to injuries and disagreements with management.  Since then, there’s been no real connective tissue that explains his basketball demise.  Seriously, what the heck happened to him?  You could argue that Vince’s initial injuries played a huge role in his overall downfall, as was the case with many hopefuls like Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, and his cousin Tracy McGrady.  But Carter’s career downfall, more than that of any of those players, can be pinpointed more so to chronic underachieving and questionable dedication than any injuries.  

Unlike VC, Kobe never shied away from
getting in the face of his opponents

There are some other theories for his underachievement, aside from injuries and general aging.  Charles Barkley thought he was too nice of a guy to become a superstar.  In some respects, this was a good thing:  despite his immense talent, he was one of the most humble stars in the league.  When Michael Jordan was selected – in his final season – to the 2003 All-Star reserves, Carter relinquished his starting spot to Jordan (although he initially indicated he wouldn’t when asked about that possibility).  Off the court, Carter’s community service has been stellar.  He frequently donates to his high school, Mainland, as well as a foundation he started called “The Embassy of Hope.”  Nevertheless, Barkley’s main point is that he never had the “mean streak” necessary for most to become an elite player.  This ties in to his overall lack of motivation.  Most of the great superstars over the years – Bird, Magic, Dr. J, MJ, Shaq, Kobe, etc – always found ways to motivate themselves.  Whether they would trash talk with opponents or get in fight with their teammates to motivate them, they played with an edge.  At one point, Kobe was one of the most hated players in the NBA.  Think that didn’t fuel him?  Think the other superstars weren’t good at taking their anger out on the court in a positive manner (by the way, the jury is still out as to whether LeBron will correctly harness the hatred towards him)?  You never got that same killer-instinct vibe from Vince as you did with those superstars. 

Another theory is tied to problems with his family – namely his younger brother, Christopher Allen Carter.  While Vince is a role model off the court, Chris did not exactly stay out of trouble.  You never know how much family problems can affect the performance of players – it’s a variable on which we, in the NBA fan base, have virtually no insight.  On the other hand, many superstar players face off-court adversity throughout the course of their careers.  The difference between them and Carter is that they harness their off-court trouble, too, for further motivation.  Following Jordan’s initial loss of desire to play basketball after his father passed away, he came back to the league with a vengeance and flat-out DOMINATED the NBA and won 3 more championships.  When everyone gave Kobe a hard time about his sexual assault trial in Colorado, he would have some of the best games of his career – sometimes on the same day as court appearances.  By no means am I saying Vince is a bad guy by letting his family problems affect him; I’m only pointing out that the adversity of some players negatively affect their performance more so than others. Carter was always just wired differently, from a mental and emotional standpoint, than other superstars.

Jordan was wired in a way that he could harness all his emotions - including the
trauma from the murder of his father - and win multiple championships

Carter shot a whole lot of ill-advised jumpers
throughout his career

His personality and upbringing aside, there are legitimate faults of Vince on the basketball court.  In terms of his play, he always had the physical gifts to be a fantastic all-around player.  But he could never put an end to the criticism of his game that the basketball gurus pointed out.  For one, he was never a top-notch defender.  This goes back to his complacency as a player and the aforementioned quote to John Thompson – where he doesn’t see a need to put in effort to guard players, most of who weren’t nearly as talented.  His offensive game has been equally baffling.  The one thing I could never understand is why he constantly falls in love with his jump shot.  Carter is an extremely streaky shooter, so you often see him throw up a ton of shots when he thinks he’s feeling it.  This draws the bulk of his criticism:  he’s tremendously gifted at driving to the basket, and his team has great success when he tenaciously drives to the rim.  In that situation, many positive things can happen: he either finishes at the basket, draws fouls, or creates plays for his teammates.  Good things happen when he drives to the basket, yet he often finds himself settling for jump shots.  The only part of his decision making that I don’t criticize is his passing; of all areas of his game that people tend to scrutinize, he sure is an underrated passer.  Carter never made the most of his abilities, and it seemed to be due more to his mental mistakes than physical wear and tear. 

The other main problem with Vince has been his reputation in the clutch.  The thing that’s haunted him the most is that he never seems to come through when games are on the line.  Sure, he’s hit a handful of game-tying or game-winning 40 foot bombs in relatively meaningless games.  But in crucial playoff games, Vince has never been very reliable – a theme that followed him ever since the aforementioned potential game-winner against Philly in 2001. Two incidents that come to mind are Carter’s inexplicable turnover in a pivotal Game 4 vs. Cleveland in 2007 (on top of a horrible 6-23 shooting night), as well as the two free throws he missed in the closing seconds of Game 2 vs. Boston in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals (which put the Magic in an insurmountable 0-2 hole before heading to Boston).   Both New Jersey and Orlando got fed up of his shortcomings and dumped him.  He was such a disappointment to the Magic that they concocted trade that sent him to Phoenix in exchange for Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu – a trade that was essentially a huge admission of error for when Smith let Turkoglu sign with Toronto and acquired Vince Carter after a run to the NBA Finals in 2009, in hopes that Vince would provide late-game scoring against elite teams in the playoffs.

Since this last-second shot that he missed in Game 7 vs. Philly in the 2001
Conference Semifinals, Carter could never redeem himself in crunch time

Carter may not have lived up to the hype,
but at least he does his part in the community

Ultimately, Carter’s fall has been mostly mental.  Say what you want about his injuries, but the truth is that Carter’s mentality turned out not to be conducive to become a true NBA champion and legend.  Make no mistake:  when all is said and done, Vince will still have had great success in the NBA and has already established his legacy.  Few have ever displayed the array of athleticism and talent at his level while also carrying the demeanor of a humble and respectful role model.  At the same time, few can be considered bigger disappointments than Vince.  Allen Iverson can also be seen as a tragic figure, but he wasn’t blessed with all the physical attributes that Vince once had; in retrospect, Iverson really maximized his potential.  Vince is truly is one of the nicest guys in the league, which somewhat softens the blow of criticism from the overall NBA community for his letdown; he is well-liked among his teammates and peers, as well as fans everywhere outside of Toronto.  Whether it was by choice or by injuries, he just never maintained his once cream-of-the-crop stature - and lost the universal acknowledgement as a sure-fire Hall of Famer.   

Saturday 2/12/11 - Random thoughts at this point in the season

The biggest story in recent days:  Jazz legendary coach Jerry Sloan stepping down.  Karl Malone was at last night’s Utah-Phoenix game and had a few words about this.  In an NBA TV interview, he suggested the players’ commitment (or lack thereof) had something to do with Sloan’s sudden exit.  He implied that something bad must have happened to make Sloan, of all people, quit.  Some sources say Deron Williams is the culprit.  D-Will has defended himself, saying forcing someone of Sloan’s stature to step down is ridiculous.  Coaches and players do get into a lot of arguments, and the media tends to blow such incidents out of proportion most of the time.  But who really knows?  It may have been the first time Sloan’s players have turned on him in a long, long time.

o   Remember when I left D-Will off my All-Star reserves picks?  I said either Sloan or D-Will needed to get blamed for Utah underachieving this season.  It appears that something behind the scenes definitely went on.  But as they say, it’s a player’s league and coaches generally get the blame, no matter how renowned they may be.

o   David Thorpe was asked in a recent ESPN.com chat regarding whether he thought Deron Williams would remain in Utah when his contract expires after next season.  His response was plain and simple:  “No.”

-       The Spurs had their worst game of the season last night, losing to the 76ers for the 8^th time in their last 11 games between the two teams. 

o      I’m glad Elton Brand is playing well again.  People really wrote him off after a couple injury-plagued seasons.  You could say that karma bit him, after he infamously bailed on the Clippers to sign with Philly in the Summer of 2008 after reportedly promising the team to sign with them - particularly considering Baron Davis left the Golden State Warriors to join the team.  The Clippers seemed to get the last laugh, as they drafted sensation Blake Griffin and Brand ruptured his Achilles tendon his first season with the 76ers. 
o     I hope the Spurs don't end the season on a flat note.  They're at their best when they start their seasons slow and finish strong.  This season seems to be the opposite trend..

-      Orlando made one mind-blowing sloppy mistake after another last night, losing 99-93 to New Orleans at home. 

o   I joked with a friend of mine, who’s a huge Magic fan, about 2 months ago that Orlando would lose in the 1^st round this year.  Ever since I said that, it’s looking more and more like that’s not a laughing matter.  With the way they’re playing, they  may very well not even get homecourt advantage in the 1^st round of the playoffs.  

o   You gotta wonder if the blockbuster trade with Phoenix was a mistake.  I personally think shipping out Vince Carter was a great move, but it’s clear that losing Pietrus and Gortat  have really hurt Orlando.  Phoenix has been playing well of late with those two picking up the slack.  In the Utah-Phoenix game last night, did you notice Vince Carter sat on the bench during crunch time in favor of Pietrus?  Maybe Stan Van Gundy should have thought of that strategy.  Just sayin’.

-      The Lakers dominated the Knicks last night at the Garden 113-96.

o   This just in:  Amare has NO CLUE how to guard Pau Gasol.  None.  Remember the Phoenix-LA Western Conference Finals last year?  The Kobe-Gasol duo just absolutely shredded the Suns’ defense, thanks to Amare’s awful defensive tactics – always losing sight of Gasol and spoon-feeding him open lanes to the rim. 

-      LaMarcus Aldridge was a beast once again last night as Portland defeated Toronto 102-96.  After dropping 42 on the Bulls last Monday, Aldridge scored 37 and grabbed 10 boards against the Raptors. 

o   That’s the 3^rd time in 6 games he scored 35+ points.  Think he’s motivated by being left off the All-Star team? 

o   He’s making my reserve picks look really, really good. 

-       What is the deal with Rip Hamilton?  He rides the bench while the NJ-Detroit-Denver rumors surfaced during the ongoing Carmelo trade front saga.  When those talks died, he came back and played pretty well – 15 points and 3 assists in 20 minutes.  After that one game, he’s been sitting out with a groin injury.  Really?  Something shady is going on.  Hopefully he gets traded before the deadline.