Letting Linsanity Sink In

There are two major reasons why we love to watch sports.  First, we admire the display of the world’s best athletes competing at the highest level.  The second – and much more powerful and impactful reason – is that we love seeing success stories, especially when the cards are stacked against them from happening.  As a whole, fans naturally root for the underdog and get caught up in the wave of Cinderella stories.  Much of the hardcore enthusiasm and pride instilled in sports fans comes from the inspiration and hope that a rare phenomenon gives them.

In the last week, we have been witnessing one of these phenomenons, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.  And it just so happens to be occurring within one of the most storied franchises.  I’m speaking, of course, of the one and only New York Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin.  In the last four games without “superstars” (yes, I’ll keep calling them that) Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire (Melo with a sore groin, and Amare coping with his brother’s untimely death), the Knicks have gone 4-0 – in large part due to Lin coming out of nowhere to lead his team to convincing victories over New Jersey, Utah, Washington, and the Lakers.  In those 4 games, Lin’s point/assist log looks like this: 25/7 vs. NJ, 28/8 vs. Utah, 23/10 at Washington (against last year’s No. 1 draft pick John Wall, no less), and a whopping 38/7 against Kobe and the Lakers.  With each game, Lin is gaining tremendous confidence, and has electrified the Garden.

Blowing by defenses left and right, Jeremy Lin has taken the sports
world by storm, and has the Knicks finally playing winning basketball

Since sneaking in to the NBA after 4 successful years at Harvard,
Jeremy Lin has gone relatively unnoticed by teams league-wide

Stats aside, this hasn’t been a good story; it’s been a GREAT story. After going undrafted out of Harvard, and between bouncing around teams in NBA and spending time in the D-League, this guy wasn’t on ANYONE’s radar.  Before Tuesday – when his contract became guaranteed – he was sleeping on his brother’s couch at night to save money.  Even Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey couldn’t help but praise the guy and express regret for not giving him a chance.  Of all the point guards on the Knicks roster – Baron Davis, Iman Shumpert, and Mike Bibby – who would have ever thought that Lin would be the answer as the floor general? 

These days, everyone in the sports world is asking if Lin’s remarkable run can be sustained, and whether he’s actually for real or just a one-week wonder.  I’ll put my answer simply:  One great game is an aberration.  Two is a trend.  Three is reality.  And four?  Well, considering the competition and the spotlight, his performance is no fluke.  Plain and simple - the guy can play.  He's constantly beating guys like Deron Williams and John Wall off the dribble.  Although turnover-prone so far in his first few games playing big minutes, his playmaking ability is top-notch.  And hey, he can dunk!  To put it in perspective, he's SECOND in PER - right behind freaking LeBron!  How good can he be?  It's tough to tell; I'm not going to say he's All-Star material, but I would say he could be a solid backup point guard on a contending team.  But more importantly, he needs to be in the right system to be effective.  Even with his new-found confidence, I think the quality of his play is always going to be dependent on the team and playing style.

Here’s a crazy thought:  what if Lin keeps this up through the rest of the season?  Imagine this scenario if Linsanity continues:  he’ll land a big contract over the off-season after teams commence on a bidding war for him.  Next season, he’ll be put on the All-Star ballot.  If the Lin bandwagon multiplies by then, fans WILL vote for him - especially from China and Taiwan.  While still pretty crazy and farfetched, Lin being voted as a 2013 NBA All-Star starting guard is not completely beyond the realm of possibility.  I mean, we all remember how many All-Star votes Yao Ming got – and even Yi Jianlian almost got voted in when he was put on the ballot a few years ago.  But Yi was not causing nearly the stir that Lin is now.  How crazy would that be?

Carmelo Anthony's ball-holding ways will be tough to mix
with Jeremy Lin's free-flowing pick-and-roll offensive style

Okay, now that I have gotten all the praise out of the way – time to play Devil’s Advocate.  Realistically, the Knicks are still not a winning team.  Before Linsanity started, New York was off to a disappointing 8-15 start in a year they had higher expectations.  Mike D’Antoni was on the hot seat, and Melo and Amare’s superstardom has come into question (and rightfully so).   So while they are having success without those two, you have to wonder how their return will impact the team.  As I’ve beat to death over and over, Melo and Amare happen to be two gifted scorers with the same team-killing deficiencies.  Defensively, they are two of the worst starting forwards in the league.  On offense, the two scoring juggernauts and iso-happy games severely penalize the team’s overall ball movement.  Without them, Lin and the Knicks have been primarily running pick-and-roll plays, where Lin has been incredibly effective.  In that scheme, there has been a free flowing offense that we are used to seeing from D’Antoni-led teams.  But when Melo and Amare return, I just can’t see them letting Lin dictate the offense – especially Melo, who has never taken kindly to the idea of being a second fiddle.  Over his entire career, he has never given me any reason to believe that he can adjust for the betterment of the team – at least not yet.  And if Melo continues dominating the ball, Lin's play might suffer.The subsequent destruction of chemistry is my biggest fear for the Knicks as a team, in the aftermath of Linsanity. 

So if this fear is realized, and the Knicks struggle integrating his two stars with Lin, what does D’Antoni do?  Does he put his foot down and tell the team that Lin will be the team’s primary playmaker, and ask his two stars to put their egos aside?  Can he somehow integrate Melo and Amare’s scoring prowess without adversely affecting the team’s successful style of play lately?  Tyson Chandler has really stepped it up on both ends of the court, but will he keep it up?  I don’t see any positives from this happening, but for the sake of Knicks fans, I really hope I’m wrong.  Knicks fans have experienced far, far, far more disappointments and letdowns than success throughout their lifetime, so hopefully this can turn around their fortunes on a more permanent basis. They are long overdue for some optimism in the team.

Regardless of this particular team’s success, I think Lin has turned his own career around and will never again have to worry about finding a place to crash.  Whether or not he can sustain this run, he has instantly impacted the league and inspired fans worldwide in a way that few ever have before.  As fans, let’s not question him and just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

My 2012 NBA All-Star Reserves

The fan voting has ended and the 2012 starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced.  Now it’s time to ponder who should fill out the remaining rosters to play at the big game.  This is one of the weirder years to make such picks, with the shortened season being a huge factor.  With only a month of basketball to base our All-Star picks, players sitting out due to injury will have a huge disadvantage.  And without much of a training camp, most of the league has been sluggish over the first month of the season – resulting in a relatively poor quality of play overall so far.  So, a lot of my picks will have shaky logic behind them.  I realize this is hard to read, so click on the chart to pull up a better view.

What do I think of the fans’ selection of the starting lineup?

The fans did OK here for both teams, with the exception of voting Carmelo Anthony as the starting forward for the Eastern Conference.  With the Knicks struggling and currently out of the playoff picture, Anthony deserves some blame for the disappointing start.  There are many players over the years I can think of off the top of my head – e.g. Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Allen Iverson – who are considered top-tier players and perennial All-Stars, but whose teams get better after they leave.  Those are exactly the kind of players that can be considered overrated, or at least the players whose talents don’t translate to winning team basketball.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:  Melo is no exception as one of these players, as evidenced by Denver’s success and New York’s woes. As I’ve said repeatedly, I believe both Melo and his teammate Amare Stoudemire are stars only by name, not by deed. They would be much better served as 3^rd or 4^th options on a team behind true stars that know how to facilitate their teams, where they can afford to be just scorers and not facilitators.

Chris Bosh has stepped it up during his second season
in a Heat uniform

So if not Melo, who should have been picked instead?  Easy:  Chris Bosh.  He has been on an absolute tear this season, setting out to prove that there really is a Big Three in Miami.  Dwyane Wade has battled injuries all year, but Miami has gone 8-1 in the games in his absence – in large part due to Bosh’s much-improved play.  The question of whether he can be an effective third wheel still remains, but there’s no question he’s worthy of a spot on the All-Star team.

The rest of the starters on both teams are spot on, although I would have been OK with Russell Westbrook getting the nod over Chris Paul as the starting guard out West.  Then again, CP3 has been filling up the stat sheets lately and has propelled his Clippers to 2^nd best in the West.  His latest string of games has been particularly impressive, helping his team handily defeat the Thunder at home, and getting tough road wins against Denver and Utah (no small feat).  They are an elite team, and their franchise fortune-turning play is well deserving of having two All-Star starters represent them.  

MY RESERVE PICKS

Key Omissions due to Injury:

Rajon Rondo (Boston), Luol Deng (Chicago),  Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)

Eastern Conference

We've seen plenty of J-Smoove highlights -
but somehow no All-Star appearances

Since Bosh should be starting, he should be a lock for a reserve spot.  The Hawks have been playing great basketball despite losing Al Horford for the season, and Joe Johnson and Josh Smith have both been the main reasons why.  Oddly enough, Smith has NEVER been selected as an All-Star, but I can’t see coaches snubbing him this year.  Even without Horford, I think the Hawks are good enough to give Miami or Chicago (depending on the seeding) a run for their money in the 2^nd round of this year’s playoffs. In any case, Johnson and Smith should both make the team.

As I do every year, I base my picks off of teams who are winning.  Since Philadelphia and Indiana have played winning basketball this year, they absolutely must have some All-Star representation.  Jrue Holiday has been the key to the 76ers’ great start; he has been orchestrating an offense responsible for getting SIX players averaging double figures in points, with Evan Turner (9.8) and Jodie Meeks (9.0) not far behind.  He and Andre Iguodala have been the primary playmakers for this team, averaging 9.7 assists between them.  I’m not sure if anyone had Philly winning the Atlantic Division this year, but they’re going to win it by a long shot.

The 76ers have become the league's most surprising team this season

A broken nose hasn't stopped Roy Hibbert from
becoming one of the league's elite bigs

For Indiana, Roy Hibbert has become a beast in the paint and has added another dimension to the Pacers’ offensive and defensive schemes.  He’s displayed his fair share of toughness as well, especially against the Lakers – where he broke his nose and played through it to help the Pacers to get a road win in LA.  

It’s funny seeing Danny Granger and Iguodala as my wild cards, because of how similar their situations have been in recent years.  Neither of their teams has been particularly good in years past, but the two of them have been steady leaders for their squads for a few years now.  Two of the most dynamic and athletic wing players in the league, they have had plenty of help this particular season from their respective supporting casts – and it has translated to their teams’ success.  

Western Conference

Aldridge is long overdue for an All-Star bid

After declaring Westbrook a shoe-in, this is where things get tough.  Kevin Love has arguably become the best power forward in the league (how many PF’s have ever averaged 25 points and 15 rebounds?), so you can’t exclude him.  Besides, Larry Bird has been craving for white superstars in the NBA - you gotta appease the Legend.  Anyway, let’s keep going:  LaMarcus Aldridge was the biggest snub last season, so I don’t think coaches will leave him off the team this time around.  Rudy Gay has filled in admirably for the Grizzlies after Zach Randolph went down, so he is deserving of a first-time All-Star bid as well.

Nene is one of Denver's
many solid pieces

So after rewarding players who are long overdue, let’s try to reward the teams that are winning – like the third-place Nuggets.  Denver is a team much like Philadelphia and Indiana – one without a true superstar, but full of very good players.  Still, you have to reward them with at least one All-Star.  I picked Nene, since there are not many other very good Centers in the West (or the league, for that matter).  As much of a bad rap as Dallas has gotten for their slow start, they are still sitting in 4^th place overall in the West.  For that reason, I just can’t get myself to deny Dirk an All-Star bid – even though he’s played well below his potential and has missed several games due to injury. 

This leaves one more spot, which should go to someone from either Utah or San Antonio.  Since Manu Ginobili, the Spurs’ leading scorer, has been hit with injuries all season, I can’t pick him.  Utah, though, has exceeded everyone’s expectations.  Their two bigs – Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson – have both been a load for opposing front courts.  So since I can’t decide which one of them should get the bid, I’ll say that they are both equally deserving.  I hate how shaky my logic has been for this, but there are going to be some players in the West that are bound to get snubbed.

The Dwight Predicament

As the Orlando Magic’s losing culture is growing stronger by the day, everyone league-wide is wondering the same thing:  is it time to trade the franchise player?  This question is consuming the entirety of Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith’s thoughts, as the NBA community is awaiting his next move in the Dwight Howard trade rumor saga.  A situation that’s gone from bad to worse, this is a team that needs answers.  And fast.

What is going on with the Magic?  Are the trade rumors hurting the team that much?

Things have worsened exponentially over the last week or so.  It started last week with a humiliating blow-out loss to a depleted Boston Celtic team without Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen, and managed to score only 56 points.  Then a few days later, they completely melted down and blew a 27-point 1st half lead against the very same depleted Celtic team.  In case anyone wondered if this would carry over against one of the worst teams of the league, New Orleans routed them 93-67 on Friday.  Sunday night, they got blown out at home by Indiana by 21.  And in their attempt to reverse their disappearing act the next night, they came up short against Philly.

All Dwight can think about is when - not if - he's leaving Central Florida

All teams go through dry spells.  But given the magnitude of defeats and circumstances surrounding the team, it’s hard not to attribute these struggles to Howard’s swirling trade rumors.  After the aforementioned blowout loss to the Hornets, Howard bashed his teammates and their lack of effort.  He’s been known to call out his teammates to the press before, but this time it’s become evident that his peers have given up on him.  He's also publicly criticized head coach Stan Van Gundy's abrasive coaching style.  That’s why, as a superstar, asking for a trade puts you in a TERRIBLE spot.  An irreversible chain of events occurs and the team starts to self-destruct.  First, your teammates and coaching staff begin to question your commitment and loyalty.  Once that happens, you are no longer in a position to call out your team in hopes for a positive result.  In their eyes, they’re thinking, ‘what’s the point of giving your all for a guy who wants to leave anyway?’ 

We’ve seen precedence before of a lame duck superstar in a contract year.  Just to avoid bringing up painful memories for Magic fans of losing Shaq (and better yet, to pick a more recent example), Orlando’s situation is mirroring that of the Denver Nuggets involving Carmelo Anthony last season; Melo demanded a trade at the beginning of the 2010-11 season and, after months of speculation and indecision on the part of Nuggets management, he finagled his way to New York.  

Much like Dwight today, Melo had to address
trade rumors on a daily basis last season

Let’s compare the similarities between this year’s Magic and last year’s Nuggets.  While Melo was still a Nugget during the first half of the season, the team chemistry was horrific.  Yes the team was still winning some games, but deep down, his teammates knew he wanted to leave.  They knew his heart wasn’t in it.  They knew Melo was playing only to pad his stats and sell himself to the Knicks.  I’ve never seen a player so emotionally detached from a team – until now with Dwight.  Much like Melo last season, Dwight’s body language has been visibly terrible since the start of training camp.  Even though he’s still putting up decent numbers, you can tell his heart is not in the game.  And you can tell his teammates have quit on him.

But why is Dwight so hell bent on leaving Orlando? They really aren’t that bad – they’re only 3 years removed from an NBA Finals appearance…

From a pure basketball standpoint (turmoil aside), the Magic
 aren't too many pieces away from returning to the Finals

I honestly don’t know, and I don’t think anybody really does.  Despite being only 3 seasons removed from an Eastern Conference title, Howard feels change of scenery is needed.  Like many marquee free agents before him, Dwight Howard is looking for greener pastures – but his motive is unclear.  He says he wants a better chance to win a championship, but it makes you wonder when he makes outrageous David Kahn-like suggestions – such as telling the front office to keep Gilbert Arenas.  Does he want to play with his buddies, be in a bigger market, or have a better supporting cast?  Based on his wish list of destinations, the answer to that is not very clear.

As of now, he has a short wish list of destinations:  New Jersey, LA (Clippers AND Lakers), Dallas, and now Chicago.  Just by simple reasoning, you can figure out why a trade hasn’t happened yet with any of these teams.  We know the Nets have NOTHING of value to trade for him – particularly with Brook Lopez’s broken foot.  The Clippers would have to give up Blake Griffin (who, btw, just mesmerized the league with his ridiculous dunk theother night) to get Dwight, which I don’t think they would be willing to do right now even if the trade itself makes sense.  Otis Smith has told the Lakers he will not settle for less than Pau Gasol AND Andrew Bynum (they’ve only offered Bynum).  Dallas and Chicago are already championship-caliber teams that will be hesitant to gut their rosters to get Dwight during such an abbreviated season.  Thus, trade talks have been at an impasse.

What’s next for the Magic?

That’s a tough question that only time will tell.  In any case, Magic fans better brace themselves for many seasons of mediocrity.  Even though the Nuggets went through the same situation last year and came out smelling like roses, the results for Orlando parting ways with their superstar will be completely different.  Right now, the Nuggets are now a MUCH better team than they ever would have been with Melo, and so everyone in Denver is glad to see him gone (and struggling in NY).  You can’t complain about the results of the trade as a Nugget fan – since the trade, the Knicks have gone 21-27 with Melo, while Denver improved remarkably without him – and is now sitting at 2^nd overall in standings of the loaded Western Conference.  In contrast with Orlando, it’s hard to envision a similar result when Dwight leaves.  Melo is more of a ball-stopper (which is KILLING his Knicks right now), while Dwight has more of a team anchor-like presence and is not the one dictating his team’s offense.  Since Melo’s departure, Denver improved tremendously on defense, while it’s hard to imagine Orlando replacing Dwight’s superior defensive presence.

The Denver Nuggets couldn't be better without Melo, but it's hard to see the same
success story panning out for the Magic without Howard

If you’re Otis Smith, here are your options:

1)      Trade Dwight ASAP in hopes of ending the current state of turmoil and take the best offer on the table.

2)      Call everyone’s bluff and wait until the trade deadline to solicit everyone’s BEST trade offer, or...

3)      Wait it out until free agency and see if you can keep him, or get the best possible sign-and-trade deal.

Option 3 should be ruled out at this point, as he’s made it clear he doesn’t want to stay.  So, unless he wants to lose Howard for nothing this summer, Otis Smith should just bite the bullet at some point this season and follow one of the first two options.

I’ll close this blog post with one thought, as I talked to my friend John about this recently:  why the hell is Orlando not a more appealing destination for free agents?  Brand spanking new arena, great weather, no state taxes – I’d really like to know why players aren’t biting at the bit to move to Central Florida.  Of all the superstars who have been wanting to move in the last few years – Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. – NONE have even entertained the idea of wearing a Magic uniform – even to play with the league’s best center.  Perhaps that's really why Howard is moving forward with a trade request?  Please comment with your theories on this, because I’m at a loss.

If you think that trade rumors don’t affect players and their teams that much, think again.  

Reaction to the First Week of the 2011-12 Season

With just over a week of games behind us, I wanted to make some quick notes on which teams I think are overrated, underrated, playing as expected, and teams we can’t judge yet.  Keeping in mind I am not making mention of every team at this point, here’s my early take on the NBA landscape:

Overrated:

New York Knicks

In the playoffs last year vs. Boston, the Knicks were competitive during the series’ first two games.  Then, Chauncey Billups got hurt, and they were swept shortly thereafter.   Well, after the team waived Billups this offseason, and with Baron Davis hurt, did you really expect the Knicks to be that good?  With Toney Douglass running the show, I have my doubts.  Sure the team signed Tyson Chandler, but he can only clean up so many mistakes that their porous D makes. 

With glaring weaknesses in their back court, it could be
 a very long season for Stat, Tyson and Melo (left to right)

“Superstars” Melo and Amare still have a LOT to prove, or they’ll be getting the overrated label themselves in the near future (if they haven’t already).  I foresee them definitely make the playoffs, but with teams like the Hawks and Pacers improving, and the Magic appearing to tread water – despite the drama surrounding Dwight’s probable lame duck season – I’m not so sure they’re good enough to obtain home court advantage in the first round.

Underrated:

Dallas Mavericks

Don’t be fooled by their slow start.  At the end of the day, I still don’t see any clear-cut team out West that’s truly better than them yet.   Vince Carter’s play has been a pleasant surprise so far, as has that of Delonte West.  Their regular season record may be so-so by season’s end, but I have no doubt that Rick Carlisle will have this team ready come playoff time.

Atlanta Hawks

As long as Atlanta keeps their three All-Star caliber
players, they are a virtual lock to be a top-4 team in the East

After shocking the world by eliminating the heavily-favored Orlando Magic in last year’s playoffs, this team appeared to take a step back by losing scoring juggernaut Jamal Crawford in free agency.  But in only five games, this team has proved once again that they are not to be overlooked.  But last I looked, they still have Joe Johnson, Josh Smith - who better make the All-Star team this year, as he hasn't yet been selected for one yet - and Al Horford.  And with Larry Drew running the show after a great first season as head coach, I don't think they're slowing down anytime soon.

Btw, did you see T-Mac playing like it’s 2003 vs. Miami and beating down the Heat?!  That blast to the past may have been the highlight of the season for me so far.  If he keeps this up in crunch time situations for the remainder of the season, the Hawks could be a real sleeper in the East.

Indiana Pacers

The team that gave a slight scare to Derrick Rose and the Bulls in last year’s playoffs has improved considerably this season.  You probably weren’t blown away by their acquisition of David West and George Hill, but Larry Bird has quietly constructed a talented and deep roster.  As long as West finds enough touches playing alongside Roy Hibbert, they have an above-average inside-outside attack scheme. 

As Expected:

Top Guns – Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder

The two teams that started off 5-0, the Heat and Thunder are popular picks to meet in the 2012 NBA Finals.  At this early stage, who can argue with that?  In Miami, LeBron and D-Wade are playing as well as they ever have.  LeBron, in particular, has shown noticeable improvement in the low post, after working with Hakeem Olajuwon over the summer (following the advice of Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, who also benefited from the Dream's teachings) - one particular new move I noticed that has proven effective is where he holds the ball high and faces up in the "pinch" post, and in one motion, pulls up for a short jumper (a move too quick for defenders to stop, especially in that triple-threat position).  Miami also found a diamond in the rough in rookie Norris Cole, who already has received MVP chants.  Once Shane Battier gets acclimated and Mike Miller returns to health (which has been dubious lately), I can see Miami going on multiple double-digit win streaks this season.

KD is making a strong case to
be the league's best player

We also expected Kevin Durant and the OKC Thunder to come storming out of the gates.  Btw, I’m not going to make too much of the Westbrook and Durant scuffle last week vs. Memphis; I don’t believe there was any animosity there between the two.  They both are great players, and they both want to do whatever it takes to win.  Westbrook clearly has some growing up to do (particularly after the tantrums he pulled when Dallas eliminated OKC in last year’s WCF), but I think the two of them have patched things up.  Anyway, expect the Thunder to be the Western Conference’s top playoff seed this season.

Bottom Feeders – New Jersey Nets, Washington Wizards

These two teams have two of the league’s most dynamic point guards.  But that’s about all they have going for them.  Brook Lopez could not have picked a worse time to get hurt, and this could prove disastrous for the Nets in their efforts to surround D-Will with talent – and more importantly, to even keep him after he becomes a free agent this summer.

Paul Westphal (right) has grown tiresome
of Cousins' (left) pouty behavior

DeMarcus Cousins

I know, I know – dedicating a section for a particular player is not consistent with the format of this post, but I need to bring this guy up.  Prior to being drafted 5^th overall by Sacramento in the 2010 NBA Draft, teams expressed a lot of concern about 21-year old Cousins’ maturity, or lack thereof.  Today, Kings Head coach Paul Westphal has publicly criticized Cousins’ poor demeanor, toxic attitude, and questionable work ethic.  In only his second NBA season, this guy has had his fair share of meltdowns going back to his days at Kentucky.  Wasn’t this guy supposed to prove his critics wrong?  Is he ever going to stick it to the teams that passed him in the draft?  I don’t think so, but he’s going to have to get his act together.  In a league where immensely talented Centers are hard to come by, someone else will give him a chance (the Magic and Nets are two rumored potential destinations).  But I’m not convinced that he’ll wise up anytime soon.

TBD:

Los Angeles Clippers

When the Clips acquired Chris Paul, people (myself included) immediately pinned them as playoff contenders.  But don’t be shocked at their early-season struggles.  With several shakeups to their roster over the offseason, they still need time to gel as a group – especially on defense, which has been atrocious in these first few games.  Lob City is still an appropriate team nickname, as they will undoubtedly have a very potent offense.  But Vinny Del Negro is going to have to get his team to crack down on D.

Memphis Grizzlies

One of the more disappointing teams in the league so far, Memphis has started off very slow after shocking the top-seeded Spurs and forcing hard-fought games against OKC last season.   With the hope that Z-Bo’s knee injury isn’t serious, this team still has a chance to recover from their rocky start.

The “Old” Teams – Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs

Everyone has dismissed these teams as title contenders, but I think there is hope yet for these aging veterans.  Their regular season record won’t wow you – especially since coaches Doc Rivers and Gregg Popovich will rest their top players on their respective teams often during this heavily condensed season.  But in the playoffs, you still never know if they have one more playoff run left in the tank.  By no means do I expect them to be serious contenders, but I’m not counting them out quite yet.   

Teams I look forward to watching the most in 2011-12

With the lockout behind us, there are clearly some lingering issues that players, owners, and the commissioner still need to hash out.  But we shall put that all that aside as a fantastic NBA season with a plethora of great storylines is about to kick off this glorious Christmas Day.  There’s a whole lot to look forward to, and so I just wanted to take a mere glimpse of what we’ll be seeing for the next 6 months.  I’ll make my predictions as the season goes on, but for now I only want to share a few reasons why basketball fans should pay special attention to this particular season.  With the holidays coming right around the corner, I have listed the teams I look forward to watching the most in order of increasing intrigue, in countdown form.  Now, by no means is the following list a set of predictions as to who I think will win the championship; these teams are all ranked by my personal intrigue only.

5.  Dallas Mavericks

Yes, they are losing some key free agents (Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, Caron Butler), but take a look at all the newcomers filling in for them:  Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, Delonte West, Sean Williams, and Brandan Wright.  None of these guys would be considered All-Stars (yes – even you, Vince), but they should all equip Dallas with one of the better second units of the league.   While Chandler, Barea, and Butler were all integral members of the team, I do believe Mark Cuban and company have done a good job with filling those voids.  Also, remember that Butler sat out the final 53 games of the season due to injury and did not play at all during the Mavs’ championship run.  How they fill Chandler and Barea’s vacancies will be challenging, but doable.  Dallas still has plenty of size with their influx of forwards (Odom, Williams, Wright), and young speedy point guard Roddy Beaubois (who was also injured last year) is more than capable of filling Barea’s shoes.  I know everyone is dismissing Dallas as a title contender, but I still think they’re going to be a very, very tough team to beat four times in a seven-game series.

Don't think for a second that Dallas won't be contending for a title come June

 Shawn Marion and Jason Terry think that the Mavs haven’t gotten the respect they deserve after securing the franchise’s first championship – especially after upsetting the heavy-favorite Miami Heat in last year’s Finals.  I think they’re right, and that they will prove critics wrong.  Again.

4.  Chicago Bulls

The first thing to mention when talking about the Bulls this year is none other than Derrick Rose.  The reigning MVP is primed to avenge last year’s playoff shortcomings.  Now, after signing his super hefty five-year $90M extension with the Bulls, Rose is bound to put together another stellar season.  Right now, I consider him a top-10 player.  By season’s end, he may very well jump to my top 5. 

Expect Rip's synergy with D-Rose to be just as good -
if not better - as it was with Chauncey Billups in Detroit

One of the most underrated transactions of the offseason is the signing of Rip Hamilton.  He is definitely getting up there in age, but I think this change of jerseys (especially with a contender) will rejuvenate his career.  Whenever you get someone to replace Keith Bogans in your starting lineup, you know things are good.  Anyway, like his former teammate Chauncey Billups will do for his new team, Rip will provide some instant offense and veteran leadership to the still-young Bulls squad.  As a scoring two-guard with decent play making skills, he will take a lot of pressure off D-Rose on offense.  I also listened to Chris Webber talk about his days in Detroit (when he played with both Billups and Hamilton), and how impressed he was with Rip’s willingness to help out his then-backcourt teammate Billups.  C-Webb cited specific examples of how well they worked together; when Rip noticed Chauncey was tired, Rip always offered to check Chauncey’s man on the following possession.  I fully expect him to provide D-Rose with the same level of support.  Furthermore, with the addition of Rip, you get someone with the ability to consistently make clutch free throws – something they clearly could have used in last year’s collapse to Miami in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Hopefully Noah (left) and Boozer (right)
spend more time on the court than the sidelines

Even without Hamilton, AND with both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah ailing through most of last season, this team STILL won 61 games.  That’s incredible, and that’s exactly why Tom Thibodeau was Coach of the Year and Rose was awarded the MVP trophy.  If they don’t win 60+ games again this year, then that would be a disappointment.  And I anticipate another epic show down with Miami in late May.

3. Los Angeles Lakers

This team has gone through arguably the most tumultuous off-season in the NBA.  With Phil Jackson retiring, the Chris Paul trade falling through (resulting in a fall-out with Lamar Odom), and Dwight Howard trade talks going nowhere, GM Mitch Kupchak and his club know they are going to take a few steps back this year.  We know Kobe is pissed, and that he just injured his wrist in the pre-season.  New head coach Mike Brown is being asked to fill the un-fillable shoes of the Zen Master.  The hiring of Brown itself was a bit of a weird story also; remember the whole debacle with Kobe, where Kobe felt he should have been consulted with their head coach hiring?  How about Metta World Peace (don’t even get me started on how I feel about that name change) and his new role coming off the bench?  We know Lamar Odom was irreconcilably upset by the near trade for CP3, but how about Pau Gasol?  Is he truly over almost being traded?  With all the potential drama, this year's Lakers might have enough drama to rival that of their soap opera season, otherwise known as their 2003-04 season. 

Gasol's presence has catapulted the Lakers to title-contender
status since the day he wore purple and gold

This is a team with many distractions, no doubt.  BUT, let’s not blow the Lakers’ troubles out of proportion.  Since they still have Gasol and an occasionally-healthy Andrew Bynum anchoring the middle, they’re still going to be a top-4 team in the Western Conference.  With Dallas losing Tyson Chandler, the West is still up for grabs.  Add some depth to the Lakers' bench, and they’re still a title contender. Also, in my opinion, the fallout of the CP3 trade was a blessing in disguise.  Losing Gasol would have been devastating to this team - just look at their record in games without him over the last three seasons.  I don't know the exact number in terms of record, but the Lakers have won about 80% of games with Gasol in the lineup since he was traded to the team in  February 2008.  He was heavily criticized for his struggles in last year's playoffs (just like he was vs. the Celtics in the 2008 NBA Finals), but people should not be so quick to dismiss his enormous impact on the team.  If it weren't for him, Kobe would never have won a Finals MVP (BTW, I still don't think he deserved MVP honors in 2010 after their Finals re-match against Boston, seeing how he went 6-24 from the field in Game 7 - but I digress).  

2.  Miami Heat

From now on, Shane Battier (left) will only have
to guard LeBron (right) in practice

Like them or not, this is still going to be one of the most touted teams to watch.  Thankfully, they won't be under nearly as much scrutiny - strictly in terms of media attention - as they were last year.  Their expectations will be higher, but I don't think TV producers will be as gung-ho about covering all the gory behind-the-scenes details about their season UNLESS they struggle coming out of the gates.

Still, let's not take the two-headed monster combo of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James for granted.  Even with a team ranked higher on my particular list that may be potentially more exciting than them, you will still be seeing plenty of highlights every night between these two highlight-generating juggernauts.  Also, this team still won't have a shortage of 2011-12 headlines:  Can LeBron rebound from his complete meltdown in last year's NBA Finals, and his huge hit to his public image?  Can D-Wade stay healthy all year, particularly in the playoffs when his team needs him the most?  Can Chris Bosh get more comfortable in his third-wheel role?  Also, will the acquisition of Shane Battier be enough for this team to get over the championship hurdle?

Until very late into this extended offseason, Miami was once again expected to be the center of attention this season.  But I think we finally found a team that will generate much more interest:

1.  LA Clippers

Saw this coming, didn't you?  In one fell swoop, the Clippers suddenly became one of the deepest and most exciting teams in the league.  There's so much to look forward to:  Chris Paul calling the shots on offense, Blake Griffin's chest at rim level at all times during any given game, he and DeAndre Jordan (whom, by the way, are THE most athletic 4-5 combo in the league) being on the receiving end of 10 alley-oops per game; what is there NOT to like?  

The team is also loaded with quality veterans; even before acquiring CP3 AND Chauncey Billups - both of which are proven elite floor generals; over time, the team acquired several quality players with great experience. What does that give you?  An starting lineup of CP3, Billups, Caron Butler, Griffin, and Jordan with Mo Williams, Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye, and Reggie Evans coming off the bench.  Ladies and gents, there are not many teams with that kind of combination of firepower and veteran experience in their rotation.

With several talented stars forming the league's newest potential powerhouse,
the "other" LA team suddenly isn't such an afterthought anymore

Now don't get me wrong - this team has had its fair share of great young players; the Clippers, despite being one of the worst franchises in the history of sports, have always managed to put together a decent collection of talent.  But for the first time ever (with the exception of the 2005-06 season with Sam Cassell and Elton Brand), they may have finally have constructed a well-balanced team capable of overcoming the team's losing culture <knock on wood!>.  And that is what makes the Clippers the most intriguing team of all in 2011-12.

Keep in mind that I only mentioned five of the teams I personally look forward to watching the most.  There are many, many other teams and players with very intriguing storylines – and I haven't even mentioned Dwight Howard's situation with the Magic yet (an ongoing story that deserves a standalone post in the near future). This all the more reason to forgive and forget the debauchery that was the NBA Lockout, and to enjoy what this season will have in store for us. 

Fellow basketball fanatics, here’s to sitting on the couch during all of Christmas Day and reveling in the glory of the greatest gift we could have gotten this year.  Cheers!