2015 All-Star Picks

As always, I wanted to put together a list of who I think should play in the NBA's version of Super Bowl Sunday.  The fan voting has ended and the 2015 starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced.  Now it’s time to ponder who should fill out the remaining rosters to play at the big game.  

All-Star selections; click to enlarge

What do I think of the fans’ selection of the starting lineup?

Other than Kyle Lowry's surprise booting of Dwyane Wade from the starting lineup in the last round of All-Star balloting, voting in a player from an abysmal 9-37 team is just beyond me.  Why David Stern or Adam Silver never stepped up and changed the impact of fan voting is equally perplexing.  At least we can count on Mark Cuban to shed some light on other reasons why the system sucks - and cleverly without calling the fans a bunch of idiots.  I of course am referring to the fans' selection of Carmelo Anthony.  They may not have gotten the Lowry pick wrong, but a guy from the league's WORST team?  Come on.

As for the West starting five, please copy and paste what I said about Melo and replace "Melo" with "Kobe." Sure, he will be replaced regardless due to a season-ending injury, but either James Harden or Klay Thompson belong in that 2-guard slot.  

MY RESERVE PICKS

Key Omissions due to Injury:

Russell Westbrook (Oklahoma City)

Eastern Conference

As I do every year, I base my picks off of teams who are winning.  In a perfect world, I would put four Hawks on this year's team.  What they are doing this year is not only legit, but incredible.  We haven't seen a team exceeding its individual talent like this since the 2004-2008 Detroit Pistons.  I'll settle for at least three, with Millsap being a potential injury replacement for Melo if necessary.  They just won 17 freaking games in a row - reminding me an awful lot of the T-Mac-led Houston Rockets in 2007-08 that won 22 straight games; just a bunch of great pieces that complement each other very well without that much superstar talent.  They might not win the championship, but they are legit and really amazing to watch.

Jeff Teague, Paul Millsap, Al Horford and company look to dominate the East

I granted two All-Stars each to Washington, Chicago, and Cleveland - the next best teams in the East (sorry, Toronto, but you're too young and inexperienced).  And yes, I do think Jimmy Butler is deserving of a nod more so than Derrick Rose - at least, to the season's midpoint.  Rose has been ballin' of late - averaging 24.1 points, 5 assists, and 3.4 (!!) 3-pointers in the last 15 games.  Had he been healthy and playing like this all year, he would be a lock in my book.  But I gotta recognize Jimmy Butler, who is an odds-on favorite to win this year's Most Improved Player award.

Washington is a very intriguing team to watch.  They broke out last season, making it to the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs before bowing down to a crumbling-but-talented Indiana Pacers team.  Marcin Gorat has only gotten better, and Paul Pierce's veteran presence seems to be paying off.  And, he seems to have enough left in the tank before he vacates his small forward position in favor of Kevin Durant's homecoming.  Too soon?

After a slow start, LeBron and Kyrie
look to get the Cavs back on track

Speaking of homecomings, LeBron James is finally starting to look like himself, eh?  After looking emaciated to start the year (he reportedly lost about 20 pounds in the offseason), he seems to be refreshed after missing a few weeks to heal his nagging injuries.  He has a wrist injury that will prevent him from playing this weekend, but he is poised to have Cleveland finally gel together in the coming weeks.  And hey, having Kyrie Irving - another sure-fire All-Star - helps too, especially when he can carry a LeBron-less team past a very, very tough Trailblazers squad and drop 55 on them on Wednesday night.

Now for the team LeBron left - the Miami Heat.  Dwyane Wade, while still battling nagging injuries, is reminding everyone that he's not dead yet.  He is averaging 21.4 points and 5.4 assists per game, and Miami's offense looks completely hurt when he's not on the floor.  Looks like he's going to miss a little bit of time with a strained hamstring, and might need an injury replacement, anyways.  Chris Bosh has missed some time as well, but is stepping up as a focal point in the offense post LBJ - averaging 21.3 ppg/7.5 rpg.  With the (L)Eastern Conference as a whole being pretty shallow, that's good enough for me to make the reserve forward slot.

Speaking of Miami, let's play a "Guess Who" game.  A Miami Heat player is ranked 6th in the entire NBA in PER.  Who do you think it is?  Well, if you go by my All-Star picks, it's gotta be either D-Wade or Bosh, right?

...Right?

......

Wrong.  The answer is Hassan Whiteside, who has completely come into his own with a whopping 27.01 PER rating.  Only Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and Stephen Curry are ahead of him.  That's it!!  He's ahead of freaking LeBron!! Granted it's early in the season with a relatively small sample size of games, and he doesn't play that many minutes (17.1 on average), but still - the guy was an early second round pick in 2010 by Sacramento, and NO ONE saw this coming.  Incredible story.  But I digress...

Apologies to Milwaukee, whom I still can't name five players from off the top of my head, but I would not be opposed to Brandon Knight making a wildcard spot.

Western Conference
First off, my apologies to Russell Westbrook for the snub.  Ironically, I am one of the most adamant defenders of this oft-criticized superstar.  But I think both he and KD missed too many games to be considered for the contest.  KD (as always) got voted in, but there are an astronomical number of deserving candidates in the West who played more games than both of them.

The Splash Brothers have made their mark this season

Golden State is this year's most talked-about and arguably most popular team.  With Mark Jackson parting with them on rocky terms (at least with team management) at the end of last season, nobody knew if the Warriors could be serious contenders as constructed.  But leave it up to Steve Kerr
- the world's most underrated basketball mind - to make Mark Jackson's inspiring coaching style a distant memory.  They are now 36-7, and a whopping 21-2 at home.  How they will respond to a predominantly road-heavy schedule after the All-Star break remains to be seen.  But for now, I am rewarding them with THREE All-Stars:  Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, and breakout star Draymond Green.  Curry, of course, has catapulted himself into the league's best point guard conversation.  Even last season, it was hard to see this coming with this position being arguably the most loaded in the NBA.  But the fans already know that, and that's why he received the most votes of any player to play in Brooklyn on February 15th.

Whereas Curry was the leading vote-getter by fans, I think his running mate Klay Thompson will be the equivalent popular pick for head coaches.  He has become arguably the best two-way shooting guard in the league.  The guy has improved his game in so many ways - even putting himself in the record books by scoring the most points in a quarter in NBA history.  This historic event can only be explained in NBA Jam terms.  How did he get so good?  This article by Ethan Sherwood Strauss is one of the most informative articles I've ever seen and explains all the work Thompson's new moves to add to his repertoire.  Any explanation that shows video footage of a player's improvements is extremely telling.

And then there's Draymond Green.  Admittedly, I am still giddy about picking him up on my fantasy team early in the season.  But if you watch Golden State play, this guy has so many game-defining intangibles.  In the Warriors OT loss to Chicago on Tuesday night, I watched Green - time and time and again - consistently out-hustle TWO seven-footers in Gasol and Joakim Noah for a lot of key rebounds and tip-ins -including a last-second tip-in after out-jumping both big men to force OT.  For a guy who gives up about 4 inches to them, that is impressive.  I know I'm pointing to a loss, but he makes relentless plays on a routine basis and is a HUGE reason why the Warriors are off to this start.  Steve Kerr has recognized this from the beginning, and rewarded him with a starting role even with David Lee coming back from an injury.  With his overall contributions to the best team in the NBA, I just can't get myself to leave him off the list.

Okay, enough about the Warriors.  The West is as competitive as it's ever been, but there are only a few spots left.

Lillard (left) and Harden (right) are two of the most
lethal offensive weapons in the league

James Harden is making a strong case for MVP.  Even a former teammate who he completely dissed upon his departure, Chandler Parsons, is vouching for his candidacy.  Along with Thompson, he is a sure fire bet to get the coaches' votes, as he manages to drop about 30 ppg despite receiving continuous double and triple-team coverage.

Now for the team that defeated Harden's Rockets in the playoffs last season - the Portland Trailblazers.  This victory, of course, was most famous for the thrilling series-winning buzzer-beating three-pointer by Damian Lillard - who absolutely has to be next in line in the guard positions after Harden and Thompson.  He has carried that momentum this year to extraordinary levels and an endless pile of highlights.  His less-flashy but equally lethal teammate, LaMarcus Aldridge, deserves his perennial All-Star bid as well - after several years of being a snub up until 2013.

With two current non-playoff teams - OKC and New Orleans - each having an All-Star representative in the starting lineup (KD and AD), that leaves very few spots left for a super stacked conference.  If you reward the teams that are currently in the playoff hunt, you have to recognize, in some order, the guys who are making it happen for their teams: Duncan, Dirk, CP3, Mike Conley, Kawhi Leonard, Goran Dragic, and Eric Bledsoe.  In other words, 7 guys for 2 spots.  It's only fair that I pick players from the two unrepresented teams - San Antonio and Dallas - and go with Duncan and Dirk.  With the Clippers already having Blake Griffin represent them, I have no choice but to snub Chris Paul.  I'm even more mad about leaving off Mike Conley, who is also having a stellar year for the Grizz - but Gasol is repping Memphis already.  One of these great guards will get an injury replacement call anyway (for Kobe), but for now I have to leave them off.

Damn, that was hard.

Reaction to the First Week of the 2011-12 Season

With just over a week of games behind us, I wanted to make some quick notes on which teams I think are overrated, underrated, playing as expected, and teams we can’t judge yet.  Keeping in mind I am not making mention of every team at this point, here’s my early take on the NBA landscape:

Overrated:

New York Knicks

In the playoffs last year vs. Boston, the Knicks were competitive during the series’ first two games.  Then, Chauncey Billups got hurt, and they were swept shortly thereafter.   Well, after the team waived Billups this offseason, and with Baron Davis hurt, did you really expect the Knicks to be that good?  With Toney Douglass running the show, I have my doubts.  Sure the team signed Tyson Chandler, but he can only clean up so many mistakes that their porous D makes. 

With glaring weaknesses in their back court, it could be
 a very long season for Stat, Tyson and Melo (left to right)

“Superstars” Melo and Amare still have a LOT to prove, or they’ll be getting the overrated label themselves in the near future (if they haven’t already).  I foresee them definitely make the playoffs, but with teams like the Hawks and Pacers improving, and the Magic appearing to tread water – despite the drama surrounding Dwight’s probable lame duck season – I’m not so sure they’re good enough to obtain home court advantage in the first round.

Underrated:

Dallas Mavericks

Don’t be fooled by their slow start.  At the end of the day, I still don’t see any clear-cut team out West that’s truly better than them yet.   Vince Carter’s play has been a pleasant surprise so far, as has that of Delonte West.  Their regular season record may be so-so by season’s end, but I have no doubt that Rick Carlisle will have this team ready come playoff time.

Atlanta Hawks

As long as Atlanta keeps their three All-Star caliber
players, they are a virtual lock to be a top-4 team in the East

After shocking the world by eliminating the heavily-favored Orlando Magic in last year’s playoffs, this team appeared to take a step back by losing scoring juggernaut Jamal Crawford in free agency.  But in only five games, this team has proved once again that they are not to be overlooked.  But last I looked, they still have Joe Johnson, Josh Smith - who better make the All-Star team this year, as he hasn't yet been selected for one yet - and Al Horford.  And with Larry Drew running the show after a great first season as head coach, I don't think they're slowing down anytime soon.

Btw, did you see T-Mac playing like it’s 2003 vs. Miami and beating down the Heat?!  That blast to the past may have been the highlight of the season for me so far.  If he keeps this up in crunch time situations for the remainder of the season, the Hawks could be a real sleeper in the East.

Indiana Pacers

The team that gave a slight scare to Derrick Rose and the Bulls in last year’s playoffs has improved considerably this season.  You probably weren’t blown away by their acquisition of David West and George Hill, but Larry Bird has quietly constructed a talented and deep roster.  As long as West finds enough touches playing alongside Roy Hibbert, they have an above-average inside-outside attack scheme. 

As Expected:

Top Guns – Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder

The two teams that started off 5-0, the Heat and Thunder are popular picks to meet in the 2012 NBA Finals.  At this early stage, who can argue with that?  In Miami, LeBron and D-Wade are playing as well as they ever have.  LeBron, in particular, has shown noticeable improvement in the low post, after working with Hakeem Olajuwon over the summer (following the advice of Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, who also benefited from the Dream's teachings) - one particular new move I noticed that has proven effective is where he holds the ball high and faces up in the "pinch" post, and in one motion, pulls up for a short jumper (a move too quick for defenders to stop, especially in that triple-threat position).  Miami also found a diamond in the rough in rookie Norris Cole, who already has received MVP chants.  Once Shane Battier gets acclimated and Mike Miller returns to health (which has been dubious lately), I can see Miami going on multiple double-digit win streaks this season.

KD is making a strong case to
be the league's best player

We also expected Kevin Durant and the OKC Thunder to come storming out of the gates.  Btw, I’m not going to make too much of the Westbrook and Durant scuffle last week vs. Memphis; I don’t believe there was any animosity there between the two.  They both are great players, and they both want to do whatever it takes to win.  Westbrook clearly has some growing up to do (particularly after the tantrums he pulled when Dallas eliminated OKC in last year’s WCF), but I think the two of them have patched things up.  Anyway, expect the Thunder to be the Western Conference’s top playoff seed this season.

Bottom Feeders – New Jersey Nets, Washington Wizards

These two teams have two of the league’s most dynamic point guards.  But that’s about all they have going for them.  Brook Lopez could not have picked a worse time to get hurt, and this could prove disastrous for the Nets in their efforts to surround D-Will with talent – and more importantly, to even keep him after he becomes a free agent this summer.

Paul Westphal (right) has grown tiresome
of Cousins' (left) pouty behavior

DeMarcus Cousins

I know, I know – dedicating a section for a particular player is not consistent with the format of this post, but I need to bring this guy up.  Prior to being drafted 5^th overall by Sacramento in the 2010 NBA Draft, teams expressed a lot of concern about 21-year old Cousins’ maturity, or lack thereof.  Today, Kings Head coach Paul Westphal has publicly criticized Cousins’ poor demeanor, toxic attitude, and questionable work ethic.  In only his second NBA season, this guy has had his fair share of meltdowns going back to his days at Kentucky.  Wasn’t this guy supposed to prove his critics wrong?  Is he ever going to stick it to the teams that passed him in the draft?  I don’t think so, but he’s going to have to get his act together.  In a league where immensely talented Centers are hard to come by, someone else will give him a chance (the Magic and Nets are two rumored potential destinations).  But I’m not convinced that he’ll wise up anytime soon.

TBD:

Los Angeles Clippers

When the Clips acquired Chris Paul, people (myself included) immediately pinned them as playoff contenders.  But don’t be shocked at their early-season struggles.  With several shakeups to their roster over the offseason, they still need time to gel as a group – especially on defense, which has been atrocious in these first few games.  Lob City is still an appropriate team nickname, as they will undoubtedly have a very potent offense.  But Vinny Del Negro is going to have to get his team to crack down on D.

Memphis Grizzlies

One of the more disappointing teams in the league so far, Memphis has started off very slow after shocking the top-seeded Spurs and forcing hard-fought games against OKC last season.   With the hope that Z-Bo’s knee injury isn’t serious, this team still has a chance to recover from their rocky start.

The “Old” Teams – Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs

Everyone has dismissed these teams as title contenders, but I think there is hope yet for these aging veterans.  Their regular season record won’t wow you – especially since coaches Doc Rivers and Gregg Popovich will rest their top players on their respective teams often during this heavily condensed season.  But in the playoffs, you still never know if they have one more playoff run left in the tank.  By no means do I expect them to be serious contenders, but I’m not counting them out quite yet.   

NBA Playoff Predictions Part I: East 1st Round

It’s playoff time!  We have 4 months of high-level, intense, and must-see basketball that will wash away the disgusting taste of this year’s March Madness out of everyone’s mouth.  Contrary to popular opinion, it really is hard to predict what will happen in this year’s playoffs.  If the Lakers, Celtics, or Heat win this year, you’ll hear everyone say, “I knew that was gonna happen.”  But you don’t.  Last year, some thought Boston was going to lose in the first round, including die-hard Celtic fan Bill Simmons.  Instead, they had the champion Lakers on the ropes until late in the 4^th quarter of Game 7.  This year, four Eastern Conference teams have a legitimate chance to take the title, as do 3 Western teams (in my opinion, of course). 

For now, I will just go over the 1^st round matchups of the Eastern Conference that are already established. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS – ROUND 1

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

Season Series: Bulls won 3-1

Prediction:  Chicago, 4-0

Let’s get this one out of the way.  This will be by far the most lopsided series of the playoffs, though there have been underdogs in the past that have made 1^st round series more interesting than most predicted.  Be that as it may, Indiana has absolutely no answer for Derrick Rose.  Not many teams do, but most playoff teams have better defensive weapons than Darren Collison and TJ Ford.  Interestingly, though, Indiana’s lone victory during the regular season vs Chicago included a 42 point outburst by D-Rose.  So, if Indiana manages to let Rose (who only had 2 assists that game) be a scorer and clamps down on the rest of his teammates, they may steal a game.  They have the talent to do that, especially since they have rebounding machine Jeff Foster combating with Noah and Boozer.  But I don’t see them making it any more interesting than that. 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Season Series:  Heat won 3-0

Prediction:  Miami, 4-1

More intriguing of a matchup than the Chi-Ind series, but still not all that intriguing.  Miami swept the regular season series, and two of those games took place before December – back when the Heat were struggling and many thought they were a team in turmoil.  Since then, then went on to win 10 straight on the road in December, had an up-and-down roller coaster-type season while the Big Three tried to develop some cohesion amongst themselves; they’ve only gotten better as a team since then, so Philly will have their hands full.  The Sixers have a very athletic team that could give the old guys on Miami (Bibby, Ilgauskas, Howard, House, etc.) some problems, and Andre Iguodala  has the talent to somewhat contain either LeBron or D-Wade.  Doug Collins and his squad may make things interesting for a game or two, but in the end, Miami shouldn’t have any trouble.

One question about the Heat, though:  where is Udonis Haslem?  Considering all the annoying news bits you hear about this team, the team is sure quiet about him.  Is he anywhere close to returning?  When he tore a ligament in his foot early in the season, he was expected to return sometime in April.  If Miami wants to contend for a title, they’ll need to get him healthy.  It’s not like Haslem is a guy that needs to play multiple games to get in a groove in order to help his team; his effectiveness lies in hustle plays and defense.  Those instincts will return very quickly once he returns. 

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

Season Series:  Celtics won 3-0

Prediction:  Boston, 4-1

This is by far the most interesting series of the Eastern Conference on paper so far, but only because of the presence of big-name players on big-name teams.  Without beating around the bush, I don’t think the Knicks can win more than a game.  Each game might be competitive for about 3 and ½ quarters, but I don’t think the Knicks are poised enough to close out a game against the veteran savvy of the Celtics.  Say what you want about Boston and how they’re not as good as last year – I’ve been as critical of them as anybody of their awful play since the Perkins trade.  But as I mentioned earlier, nobody thought they were going to be any good last year, either.  In the end, the Big 4 will turn it on and, in a 7-game series, will know how to get in the heads of Amare and Melo, players with volatile personalities.

All three regular season games between these teams were competitive, but the Celtics managed to get the upper hand in the 4^th quarters of each of those games.  I know regular season games usually don’t matter, but I don’t see that trend changing for this particular matchup.

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series:  Hawks won 3-1

Prediction:  Orlando, 4-1

See?  I don’t always go by who wins the regular season matchups.  Anyway, let’s face facts:  the Magic aren’t as good as they were last year.  But neither are the Hawks.  In this series, they’ll still have trouble matching up with Dwight Howard.   These teams only matched up once since the trade that brought Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas to Orlando, so this regular season matchups have to be taken with a grain of salt. 

A big x-factor in this series is Joe Johnson.  For some reason, he hasn’t been able to come through for this team in the playoffs.  Why Atlanta decided to pay him the most money out of ANY big-name free agent last summer is completely beyond me (and everybody else, including Atlanta fans).  I’ve seen him as a matchup nightmare for most teams in the league, especially Boston.  If the Hawks somehow got matched up with Boston last year, I honestly think they would have won.  But they didn’t – unfortunately, they got obliterated by Orlando and lost each game by an average of 20+ points.  I have said this before and I’ll continue to reiterate this:  playoffs are ALL about matchups.  Just because the Celtics won the East last year, it doesn’t mean they could beat every team in the East; they just happened to match up with the teams they were suited to beat. 

And since the playoffs are about matchups, I do think the Magic, among the other 3 teams in the top 4, have a legitimate chance to win the title.  Although they are somewhat limping here at season’s end, I still stand by the theory that they’re just bored of the regular season; once they warm up against Atlanta in the playoffs, they’ll have a GREAT chance of surprising everyone and make the Finals.  They are a team better suited for the playoff grind as long as Dwight’s anchoring the middle.  As I’ve said before, they will sorely miss Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus – but not Vince Carter.  The one team I can’t see them beating is the Lakers.  But I’ll get to that later.  In this series, I don’t see any differences in the dynamics of this matchup to that of last year.   

I’ll predict the Western Conference matchups (and subsequent rounds) as soon as the seedings are finalized after tonight’s regular season finale.