Teams I look forward to watching the most in 2011-12

With the lockout behind us, there are clearly some lingering issues that players, owners, and the commissioner still need to hash out.  But we shall put that all that aside as a fantastic NBA season with a plethora of great storylines is about to kick off this glorious Christmas Day.  There’s a whole lot to look forward to, and so I just wanted to take a mere glimpse of what we’ll be seeing for the next 6 months.  I’ll make my predictions as the season goes on, but for now I only want to share a few reasons why basketball fans should pay special attention to this particular season.  With the holidays coming right around the corner, I have listed the teams I look forward to watching the most in order of increasing intrigue, in countdown form.  Now, by no means is the following list a set of predictions as to who I think will win the championship; these teams are all ranked by my personal intrigue only.

5.  Dallas Mavericks

Yes, they are losing some key free agents (Tyson Chandler, JJ Barea, Caron Butler), but take a look at all the newcomers filling in for them:  Lamar Odom, Vince Carter, Delonte West, Sean Williams, and Brandan Wright.  None of these guys would be considered All-Stars (yes – even you, Vince), but they should all equip Dallas with one of the better second units of the league.   While Chandler, Barea, and Butler were all integral members of the team, I do believe Mark Cuban and company have done a good job with filling those voids.  Also, remember that Butler sat out the final 53 games of the season due to injury and did not play at all during the Mavs’ championship run.  How they fill Chandler and Barea’s vacancies will be challenging, but doable.  Dallas still has plenty of size with their influx of forwards (Odom, Williams, Wright), and young speedy point guard Roddy Beaubois (who was also injured last year) is more than capable of filling Barea’s shoes.  I know everyone is dismissing Dallas as a title contender, but I still think they’re going to be a very, very tough team to beat four times in a seven-game series.

Don't think for a second that Dallas won't be contending for a title come June

 Shawn Marion and Jason Terry think that the Mavs haven’t gotten the respect they deserve after securing the franchise’s first championship – especially after upsetting the heavy-favorite Miami Heat in last year’s Finals.  I think they’re right, and that they will prove critics wrong.  Again.

4.  Chicago Bulls

The first thing to mention when talking about the Bulls this year is none other than Derrick Rose.  The reigning MVP is primed to avenge last year’s playoff shortcomings.  Now, after signing his super hefty five-year $90M extension with the Bulls, Rose is bound to put together another stellar season.  Right now, I consider him a top-10 player.  By season’s end, he may very well jump to my top 5. 

Expect Rip's synergy with D-Rose to be just as good -
if not better - as it was with Chauncey Billups in Detroit

One of the most underrated transactions of the offseason is the signing of Rip Hamilton.  He is definitely getting up there in age, but I think this change of jerseys (especially with a contender) will rejuvenate his career.  Whenever you get someone to replace Keith Bogans in your starting lineup, you know things are good.  Anyway, like his former teammate Chauncey Billups will do for his new team, Rip will provide some instant offense and veteran leadership to the still-young Bulls squad.  As a scoring two-guard with decent play making skills, he will take a lot of pressure off D-Rose on offense.  I also listened to Chris Webber talk about his days in Detroit (when he played with both Billups and Hamilton), and how impressed he was with Rip’s willingness to help out his then-backcourt teammate Billups.  C-Webb cited specific examples of how well they worked together; when Rip noticed Chauncey was tired, Rip always offered to check Chauncey’s man on the following possession.  I fully expect him to provide D-Rose with the same level of support.  Furthermore, with the addition of Rip, you get someone with the ability to consistently make clutch free throws – something they clearly could have used in last year’s collapse to Miami in Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals. 

Hopefully Noah (left) and Boozer (right)
spend more time on the court than the sidelines

Even without Hamilton, AND with both Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah ailing through most of last season, this team STILL won 61 games.  That’s incredible, and that’s exactly why Tom Thibodeau was Coach of the Year and Rose was awarded the MVP trophy.  If they don’t win 60+ games again this year, then that would be a disappointment.  And I anticipate another epic show down with Miami in late May.

3. Los Angeles Lakers

This team has gone through arguably the most tumultuous off-season in the NBA.  With Phil Jackson retiring, the Chris Paul trade falling through (resulting in a fall-out with Lamar Odom), and Dwight Howard trade talks going nowhere, GM Mitch Kupchak and his club know they are going to take a few steps back this year.  We know Kobe is pissed, and that he just injured his wrist in the pre-season.  New head coach Mike Brown is being asked to fill the un-fillable shoes of the Zen Master.  The hiring of Brown itself was a bit of a weird story also; remember the whole debacle with Kobe, where Kobe felt he should have been consulted with their head coach hiring?  How about Metta World Peace (don’t even get me started on how I feel about that name change) and his new role coming off the bench?  We know Lamar Odom was irreconcilably upset by the near trade for CP3, but how about Pau Gasol?  Is he truly over almost being traded?  With all the potential drama, this year's Lakers might have enough drama to rival that of their soap opera season, otherwise known as their 2003-04 season. 

Gasol's presence has catapulted the Lakers to title-contender
status since the day he wore purple and gold

This is a team with many distractions, no doubt.  BUT, let’s not blow the Lakers’ troubles out of proportion.  Since they still have Gasol and an occasionally-healthy Andrew Bynum anchoring the middle, they’re still going to be a top-4 team in the Western Conference.  With Dallas losing Tyson Chandler, the West is still up for grabs.  Add some depth to the Lakers' bench, and they’re still a title contender. Also, in my opinion, the fallout of the CP3 trade was a blessing in disguise.  Losing Gasol would have been devastating to this team - just look at their record in games without him over the last three seasons.  I don't know the exact number in terms of record, but the Lakers have won about 80% of games with Gasol in the lineup since he was traded to the team in  February 2008.  He was heavily criticized for his struggles in last year's playoffs (just like he was vs. the Celtics in the 2008 NBA Finals), but people should not be so quick to dismiss his enormous impact on the team.  If it weren't for him, Kobe would never have won a Finals MVP (BTW, I still don't think he deserved MVP honors in 2010 after their Finals re-match against Boston, seeing how he went 6-24 from the field in Game 7 - but I digress).  

2.  Miami Heat

From now on, Shane Battier (left) will only have
to guard LeBron (right) in practice

Like them or not, this is still going to be one of the most touted teams to watch.  Thankfully, they won't be under nearly as much scrutiny - strictly in terms of media attention - as they were last year.  Their expectations will be higher, but I don't think TV producers will be as gung-ho about covering all the gory behind-the-scenes details about their season UNLESS they struggle coming out of the gates.

Still, let's not take the two-headed monster combo of Dwyane Wade and LeBron James for granted.  Even with a team ranked higher on my particular list that may be potentially more exciting than them, you will still be seeing plenty of highlights every night between these two highlight-generating juggernauts.  Also, this team still won't have a shortage of 2011-12 headlines:  Can LeBron rebound from his complete meltdown in last year's NBA Finals, and his huge hit to his public image?  Can D-Wade stay healthy all year, particularly in the playoffs when his team needs him the most?  Can Chris Bosh get more comfortable in his third-wheel role?  Also, will the acquisition of Shane Battier be enough for this team to get over the championship hurdle?

Until very late into this extended offseason, Miami was once again expected to be the center of attention this season.  But I think we finally found a team that will generate much more interest:

1.  LA Clippers

Saw this coming, didn't you?  In one fell swoop, the Clippers suddenly became one of the deepest and most exciting teams in the league.  There's so much to look forward to:  Chris Paul calling the shots on offense, Blake Griffin's chest at rim level at all times during any given game, he and DeAndre Jordan (whom, by the way, are THE most athletic 4-5 combo in the league) being on the receiving end of 10 alley-oops per game; what is there NOT to like?  

The team is also loaded with quality veterans; even before acquiring CP3 AND Chauncey Billups - both of which are proven elite floor generals; over time, the team acquired several quality players with great experience. What does that give you?  An starting lineup of CP3, Billups, Caron Butler, Griffin, and Jordan with Mo Williams, Ryan Gomes, Randy Foye, and Reggie Evans coming off the bench.  Ladies and gents, there are not many teams with that kind of combination of firepower and veteran experience in their rotation.

With several talented stars forming the league's newest potential powerhouse,
the "other" LA team suddenly isn't such an afterthought anymore

Now don't get me wrong - this team has had its fair share of great young players; the Clippers, despite being one of the worst franchises in the history of sports, have always managed to put together a decent collection of talent.  But for the first time ever (with the exception of the 2005-06 season with Sam Cassell and Elton Brand), they may have finally have constructed a well-balanced team capable of overcoming the team's losing culture <knock on wood!>.  And that is what makes the Clippers the most intriguing team of all in 2011-12.

Keep in mind that I only mentioned five of the teams I personally look forward to watching the most.  There are many, many other teams and players with very intriguing storylines – and I haven't even mentioned Dwight Howard's situation with the Magic yet (an ongoing story that deserves a standalone post in the near future). This all the more reason to forgive and forget the debauchery that was the NBA Lockout, and to enjoy what this season will have in store for us. 

Fellow basketball fanatics, here’s to sitting on the couch during all of Christmas Day and reveling in the glory of the greatest gift we could have gotten this year.  Cheers!

NBA Officially in a State of Chaos

For the most part, the basketball community felt a huge sigh of relief when the lockout was lifted.  But did that spell the end of the turmoil among Commissioner David Stern, the players, and the owners?  We should have known better.  We should have predicted that, after months of several heated discussions, that rifts would be permanently created and grudges would be held.  After both sides made considerable compromises to end the lockout, promises were made to both the players and owners that efforts would be made to ensure their needs would be met.  So after all this, what’s the outcome?  For one, every team transaction, from here on out, will be further scrutinized by everyone in the league.  Now, the same day the lockout ended, we’ve already seen how ugly things have become with the chaotic Chris Paul trade fiasco.  In the end, the NBA has seriously tarnished its brand, and things seem to quickly be spiraling out of control. 

Let's hope the league wises up and allows CP3 and Kobe to become teammates

The unfathomable veto of the trade that would have brought Chris Paul to the Lakers is the latest episode in what’s been a devastating blow to the NBA’s image.  Owners were furious that yet another star player would be moving to a premier franchise.  And from my understanding, it wasn’t JUST the acquiring of Chris Paul alone that prompted the owners to react; rumors swirled that the Lakers still had a chance to acquire Dwight Howard from the Magic.  While it may not have been feasible immediately after the Lakers parted with both Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom to get Paul, owners were still weary that Howard might eventually finagle his way to LA – especially if he’s not traded to another team. 

Scola (left) and Gasol (right) would provide offensive
firepower to their respective teams' front lines

What kills me is that this trade was said to be vetoed for "basketball-related" reasons.  Are you kidding me?  From a basketball perspective, it's fair to say that New Orleans may have fared the best of the three teams from doing this trade.  Lamar Odom, Luis Scola, and Emeka Okafor together would have formed a playoff team-quality front court for the Hornets.  That's before even mentioning the acquisition of Kevin Martin and Goran Dragic - who are both up-and-coming prolific scorers (if you don't know Dragic, check out this 23-point 4th quarter outburst he threw down on a very good San Antonio team in the 2010 Western Conference Semis).  From a marketing perspective, you obviously can't replace CP3 - even with these high quality players.  But it baffles me that the league doesn't realize that this is a much better option than letting Paul walk at season's end, and thereby giving New Orleans nothing in return. 

 This isn't a bad trade for the other two involved teams, either.  In the aftermath of losing Yao Ming, Houston would have landed the second-best big man in the league in Pau Gasol - and were already in the running to land Nene.  And of course, Kobe and CP3 would form the best back court in the NBA for the Lakers - albeit with a thin front line.  So how the hell is NOT doing this trade better for all three teams from a basketball perspective? 

Clearly, there are lingering issues resulting from egos of owners and players in the aftermath of the lockout.  So who's at fault for keeping this going?  

By opposing the trade of CP3 to LA, Cavs owner Dan Gilbert is
showing that he's obviously not over the loss of LeBron James

To owners, the new CBA should have further prevented teams from stacking up the league’s best players; ever since LeBron, D-Wade and Bosh joined forces in Miami last offseason, owners became determined to not allow something like that to happen again.  Thus, when the very first news they hear (on the SAME DAY the lockout ends, to boot) is the rumors of CP3 and Dwight Howard both going to the Lakers, their natural reaction is to push back.  They were promised competitive balance, and felt they were lied to.  I think all basketball minds agree that New Orleans, in the proposed trade, got a pretty damn good deal out of it.  But if we’ve learned anything this offseason, it’s that most owners don’t see things from a basketball perspective – only money. 

At the same time, you can’t blame players for wanting to play for bigger market teams.  To CP3, his desire to achieve long-term security (by signing an extension with the Lakers) has been denied.  If he blows out his knee this season, he’s screwed.  There’s no denying he has a right to be livid at the league.  Smaller market teams want more than 1% chance of landing star players to improve their venue, but other than a few exceptions – Reggie Miller with the Pacers, Tim Duncan with the Spurs, and Kevin Durant with the Thunder – star players prefer bigger markets.  That’s never going to change, and owners need to come to terms with that. 

Things will only get uglier from here on out.  We’re being told that this happened ONLY because the NBA currently owns the Hornets, causing a perfect storm for this debauchery to happen.  But hence forth, every blockbuster trade - especially between big and small-market teams – is going to be heavily scrutinized.  Even the New Jersey Nets, who are widely anticipated to be considered a bigger market when they move to Brooklyn next season, got in trouble for tampering in their ongoing attempts to trade for Dwight Howard.  Howard, who is open to the idea of playing with All-Star guard Deron Williams, now has more political obstacles to overcome.

It's not just the NBA-owned Hornets whose trade discussions are under scrutiny;
the growing chaos has hindered trade talks involving Dwight Howard (left) and Brook Lopez (right)

What a mess.

So who is to blame for the NBA’s image spiraling out of control?

The easy scapegoat, of course, is David Stern.  He’s the one who allowed the lockout get to the point where it did.  He’s the one who’s been really wishy-washy on why he vetoed the trade.  He’s the one hiding from all the heavy criticism.  But remember that ultimately, Stern answers to the owners; the only reason he’s employed is because of the owners.  He claims all of his decisions are not affiliated with any pressure he gets from owners, but IMO, that’s not plausible. 

David Stern has long ago worn out his welcome

All things considered, he really needs to retire.  He’s gotta go.  The NBA badly needs new leadership.  Regardless of whether he’s truly at fault, we know Stern’s reputation is now irreparable, and that he shouldn’t linger around any longer trying to salvage it.  Besides, he wouldn’t be the only sports figure failing to go out on a high note; just two months ago, we saw Penn State legend Joe Paterno’s last season marred by the Jerry Sandusky scandal.  But unlike Paterno, Stern’s leadership has been far from flawless up to this point.  In fact, you can question the very beginning of his reign upon the first NBA draft lottery in 1985:  many conspiracies are out there giving solid evidence that Stern “aided” the New York Knicks to win the draft lottery – and of course allowing them to land #1 pick Patrick Ewing.  Of course, the infamous Tim Donaghy scandal comes to mind as well, which put the entire integrity of the game into question.  Fair or not, Stern’s legacy will always be associated with these conspiracies. 

It's tough to imagine either Greg Oden or Brandon Roy
ever setting foot on an NBA court again

The growing rift between the owners and players is not the only sad story to surface before this already-shortened season even started.  Portland Trailblazers star Brandon Roy, who could no longer avoid the inevitable, called it quits on account of his gimpy knees.  We saw flashes of the great player he could have been in Game 4 of last year’s First Round matchup vs. the eventual NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks, and it appears that's the last of him.  Things are also looking pretty glum for his teammate Greg Oden, who is continuing to struggle making his way back on the court after a heavily injury-ridden start to his career.  So on the Blazers front, the already-sad story is only getting sadder. 

Somehow, even after the labor situation resolved itself, the NBA is looking worse and worse.  All we can hope for now is for the chaos to subside, and that things start looking up once the actual basketball gets underway.  Until then, the bleeding won’t stop and the growing divide between players, owners, and the commissioner will not be set aside.

End of the NBA Lockout = A Huge Exhale

I'm looking forward to seeing action shots on the court -
not pictures of Billy Hunter (left) and David Stern (right).

Many people asked me why I stopped blogging, even with the scary-but-realistic possibility of no 2011-12 NBA season.  They said I could write about the lockout and what I thought about it.  I could’ve written a general synopsis of the labor negotiations.  I could’ve made an assessment on the position of both sides, and whether I sided with the NBA or the Players Union.  I could’ve followed the constant cycle of rumors and constant teases of a possible labor deal, only to learn that the talks broke down.  But I didn’t bother. 

Now that we’ve been given an early Christmas gift with this weekend’s tentative agreement in place, I can finally vent about the lockout and tell you why I’ve been quiet this whole time…

I hated every moment of the lockout.  HATED it.  I hated talking about sh*t that has nothing to do with the game itself.  I hated all the over-analysis of the 150-day long negotiation process.  During a time we were supposed to talk about free agency and everything else in the basketball landscape, we were only hearing news about progress (or lack thereof) being made in negotiations.  I just couldn’t stand the thought of enduring several months with no basketball to watch.  I even tried watching some college basketball recently, as I was resigned to the fact that an NBA season probably wasn’t going to happen.  Couldn’t do it.

Players union President Derek Fisher is one of the few
who knew what really went down behind the scenes.

Fear of loss wasn’t the only thing that kept me from blogging.  In general, I just stay away from forming my own opinion in politics – especially when I’m not involved directly.  In fact, I don’t know if any basketball analysts or bloggers are collective bargaining experts (although they sure tried to act like it).  Did any of us really know what went down during the labor talks?  Not really.  All the reports emphasized the difference in the split of Basketball Related Income (BRI), the salary cap flexibility, and other contractual terms.  However, even when the two sides appeared to be making ground on those contentious issues, it didn’t result in a deal.  So really, we don’t know exactly what the hold-up was. 

But here’s what we know for sure:  neither the owners nor players gained any popularity over this time period.  It is hard for fans to sympathize with billionaires and millionaires arguing about money, and understandably so, given how much was at stake.  It also became evident that there was a growing divide amongst both the players and owners.  Both sides tried to hide that fact in order to maintain their hand, but that’s a near impossible feat in today’s social network-ridden world, where there are too many outlets for everyone to express their opinion.  Even though this has been looked at as the owners vs. players, it became obvious that there was no unity on either side.  We've seen evidence of this from Miami Heat owner Micky Arison, as well as Dallas' DeShawn Stevenson's comments about Billy Hunter.  If the lockout were to go on any longer, things were only going to derail from there.  Paychecks were going to be missed, and 75% of the players that can’t afford to miss games were going to get even more pissed off.  When that happens, it’s best to just take the offer on the table and give the fans what they want before everyone is alienated from the NBA.

If all goes as planned, things will start to get interesting on December 9^th, the targeted start date of training camp.  We still haven’t had free agency, and that could very well change the landscape of the season.  Also, will there indeed be an All-Star Game in Orlando in mid-February?  Are we having 3 ½ months of a jam-packed 66-game schedule, or are games going to get pushed out resulting in late-June playoff games?  There are still a lot of questions to be answered, but at least they’re basketball-related questions.  

From now on, it will be tougher for guys like Chris Paul
and Kevin Durant to team up under the current CBA.

Now, how is the new CBA going to affect the landscape of the NBA?   From looking at the terms of the deal at first glance, a harsher luxury tax will be put into effect for teams that are over the salary cap.  Although there is no hard cap, this may somewhat discourage teams like the Lakers and Knicks to reach into their deep pockets.  Therefore, the new deal will stimulate competitive balance amongst all 30 teams to a degree.  Hopefully, we will no longer see a ridiculously one-sided trade as ludicrous as the infamous Pau Gasol trade from Memphis to LA in exchange for the Lakers’ benchwarmers.  At the same time, you’ll never see a team pull off what Miami did last offseason in acquiring their Big Three.  In the long run, I think this is good for the league. 

On the other hand, the rules in place that will permit competitive balance will come with a caveat: this labor deal may give birth to the amnesty clause, where teams are permitted to release a player without incurring further luxury tax on the player’s contract no matter how lucrative it may be – an essential repeat of the 2005 “Allan Houston rule.”  This time around, in addition to the luxury tax relief, there will be a small cap relief to boot; 75% of the player’s contract value will be taken off the team’s payroll.  The rule this year will most likely be named after Washington’s Rashard Lewis, who is still owed $27.7 million.  Essentially, this rule gives forgiveness to teams that gave out such regrettable deals (or traded for them).  So, while the new labor deal will create competitive balance down the line, you may not see the effects of it immediately; teams with high payrolls will be able to shed a significant amount of salary this year, somewhat offsetting the initial blow of the new luxury tax thresholds and restrictions.

It’s obvious who the true beneficiaries are with regard to the end of the lockout.  Players and owners will now start making money, fans will get to watch games and create fantasy teams again.  More importantly, much of the country’s working class – arena workers, etc. whose income depends on games being played – now have jobs again. 

Maybe I’m just biased since I live here, but I don’t know if anybody’s happier about this than the city of Orlando.   First and foremost, Magic fans will get to see Dwight Howard wearing blue and white for another season (which, quite frankly, may be his last).  Also, the city will get to host the All-Star Game after all.  I, for one, am psyched about it; I’ve never been able to attend All-Star Weekend festivities, and this may be my best chance to do so. Furthermore, the city put so much money into the amazing new arena, banking on both this year’s regular season games and All-Star Weekend venue to help pay off the investment and stimulate the economy.  Now, the possibility of bankruptcy has subsided. 

The Amway Center will now be fully utilized, thanks to the end of the NBA lockout.

I hated every moment of the lockout.  HATED it.  But now, we get to talk about basketball again.  Now, instead of seeing SportsCenter clips of David Stern talking to Billy Hunter, we'll be talking about Derrick Rose and the Bulls taking on Kobe and the Lakers on December 25th.  Merry ****ing Christmas!

Cavs Season Wrap and Outlook

Cavs Looking Back:

How they did in 2010-2011: Terrible, as expected after Lebron left. They traded most of their weighty contracts for picks or cap relief picking up one monster in return (Baron Davis). The Cavs picked up castoffs and D-Leaguers to fill out the roster. They somehow lost a record 26 games in a row as the pathetic yet interesting highlight of the year. Managed to play .500 ball the last 12 games to hand Minnesota the worst record. By another miracle they won the draft lottery.

With a roster full of virtual no-name players, the Cavs
came out on top...of the lottery standings

Cavs looking forward:

The Cavs would obviously love to somehow land both
Kyle Irving and Derrick Williams

Draft: They currently have the #1, #4, and #32 picks. The #1 will go to Kyrie Irving. Irving is an elite college PG and they sorely need someone like that after years of Mo Williams and Lebron running the point. Pick #4 is the bigger decision for the Cavs management. Do they stick with #4 and go big euro (Kanter/Valanciunas/Vesly) or do they trade up to get Derrick Williams? They need to pick a guy with sure talent and develop him the next 2-3 years. Trading up doesn’t change that fact so my hope is they stay pat. John Krolik brings up a great point that the Cavs will be picking #28-40 many times in the next 5 years (thanks Miami). These guys need to be solid rotation or project guys. This plan also tells me the Cavs won’t try to contend immediately.

Roster: Salary-wise things look good. Only Chris Eyenga and Andy Varejao have contracts longer than 2 years headed into the 2011-12 season. Antawn Jamison and Baron Davis can be traded easily now that their contracts are expiring or soon-to-be expiring. Both have something left in the tank and a contender might want to take them on to shore up their bench or fill in for an injured starter. JJ Hickson becomes an interesting trade piece if they draft a big man. After that things don’t look so good. I would count Varejao and Eyenga as the only pieces the Cavs have for the future. If Eyenga develops over the next 2 years that helps but look for him to be participating in dunk contests and coming off the bench for athleticism. If you’ve read my Draft synopsis then you know the Cavs plan is to build a contender slowly over 3-5 years. They could throw in a smart trade here or there but don’t count on them trying to put together a Big 3 (or any FAs even wanting to come to Cleveland for that purpose).

One of the few brights spots of the 10-11
season, JJ Hickson has developed nicely

Coaching and Ownership: I’m sure any coach could have put together a 19-63 season but Byron Scott was brought in to teach. He seemed to help with the younger players over the course of the season. That is possibly why Mike Brown was let go. His defensive game plan would have probably helped the Cavs record into the 30s but the younger guys would have not become any better (i.e. Hickson in 2010 playoffs). I see him coaching the Cavs until they reach the fringe of contending for a title and then he will probably be let go as he was with all his other teams.

Dan Gilbert is a smart man even if the media gives him hell for his tweets, emails, and letters. All his blather is for the fans and media. It seems to work as Quicken Loans had a decent year in attendance (probably just as good as Miami pre-playoffs). But from the moves the front office has made, it looks like they know the best plan for the Cavs is a long term draft and develop scheme. Bonus: His prognosis about a Cavs championship before Lebron holds true for another year.

Outlook for 2011-2012: The Cavs win more games but barely threaten the 8^th seed. I could see them winning handfuls in the beginning and end of the season when teams are off guard, resting, or in lottery mode. Prediction of 31-51.

Coming soon: Team Recaps, Outlooks

Just so you know, I plan on spending the boring NBA-less summer looking at each team's 2010-11 season and what to look forward to this offseason as well as next year.  In that, I will include my reaction to the too-corny-to-be-a-movie-but-that's-how-great-it-was NBA Finals in the Mavs and Heat assessments.

Also, since I realized how hard it was to maintain a blog alone, I am adding my friend Dave as a contributing author.  He's one of the very few Cavs fans left that I know, so his insight will be valuable.

The Legacy of Shaquille O’Neal

Shaq.  The Diesel.  The Big Daddy.  Superman.  The Big Shamrock.  Shaqtus.  The Big Aristotle.  The list goes on and on.  Now, he’s going to be the Big 401k. 

Shaq may have been the greatest at
 winning while entertaining in sports history

Only a legend would be able to acquire all these nicknames.  Perhaps the most prominent celebrity figure in the history of the game, Shaquille O’Neal is finally hanging up his sneakers.  As a huge fan of basketball in general, I wouldn’t be doing this blog justice by not trying to take a look back at his illustrious career.  As NBA commissioner David Stern says, he really is a true giant – both on and off the court.  He has established his legacy as both an entertainer and a Hall of Fame basketball player.  If you can get perspective on everything he’s accomplished, you’ll realize he truly is larger than life. 

What can you say about his basketball career?  He became a dominant force once he got to the NBA in 1992.  A 15-time All-Star, 4-time champion, 3-time Finals MVP (and somehow only a 1-time regular season MVP); his accomplishments make him rank him up there among the greatest big men ever to play the game.  His tremendous impact on the game was evident once he set foot on the court. In his rookie year, he played a game against Boston and was matched up with Kevin McHale and Robert Parish when they were still on board.  Stunned by the one-of-a-kind physical specimen that anybody has ever encountered before, McHale said he and Parish looked at each other during that game and both said “Yeah, it’s about time to retire!” 

More than any other basketball legend (except maybe Charles Barkley), Shaq was equally well-known for his hilarious demeanor and publicity stunts as much as for his basketball achievements.   Because of the attention he’s drawn to himself from the fans, media, and players, he has called himself “very quotatious” as a result.  One of my favorite Shaq quotes of all time happened when the NBA conducted a BMI study during the 2005-06 season and Shaq was asked about his high BMI (which was well in the obese category); his response:  “Top 50.  Three Rings.  Lotta Money.  Two Mansions.”  Of course, he has four rings now, and he goes down as the most dominant player the league has ever seen. 

Even if you rooted against Shaq, you had to
love his ability to entertain in other ways

For anyone who didn’t like his game (truth be told – for a long while, I was among this group), you had to love the guy off the court.  If you ask anyone that’s spent time with him, he is an absolute blast to hang out with.  Not only did he embrace the social media to cultivate his image with fans and the press, but he was very active (and interactive) with the community.  Very few famous people embrace being a celebrity the way Shaq does; he knew better than anybody that athletes are supposed to be entertainers as well.  Whether he's break-dancing, pretending to be a point guard, kissing Tracy McGrady, or intentionally throwing free throws off the backboard to do monster (but illegal) put-back dunks at All-Star games, he never ran out of ideas for giving everyone a good laugh. 

Since I’ve never met him personally, I’m only basing this off of general observation and the perspective of others:  he is one of the most approachable celebrities you’ll ever meet.  Most stars and icons are low-key and want to be left alone; they usually have bodyguards with them in public to ensure people don’t harass them.  Not that there’s nothing wrong with that, but Shaq never did mind being out in the open for anyone to come up close to him.  Of course, at 7’1” and 350 pounds, he’s not exactly someone who needs to fear for his security.  Still, if you see Shaq at say, a restaurant, he would come over to your table and grab something from your plate. He'd make sure you weren't shy about coming up to him to say hi.  Even though he was a true beast, he was gentle and friendly in nature.  

He also pulls a lot of publicity stunts, like his “Shaqtue” act –  where he sat silently at Harvard Square and let everyone there take pictures with him.  With the era of social networking blossoming, he is a very active “Tweeter,” always sending out public message videos and gives fans a chance to interact with him.   

With so much that went on during his storied 19-year career, I could go on and on about his memorable moments.  Instead, I’ll go through some of the common questions and misconceptions about his legacy:

Misconceptions

“Was Shaq really that good?  He only won because he was bigger than everybody.”  

When motivated, Shaq was a devastating force
that could not be stopped

This is the most common misconception among casual sports fans with regard to Shaq – that he was only good because of his size and strength.  While those were his two greatest physical assets, everyone must understand that he had many, many more skills than just his behemoth presence.  First and foremost, his mobility was absolutely remarkable for a guy his size.  Over the course of his career, he greatly improved his passing ability, especially out of double and triple teams.  his most dominant years were as a Laker from 2000-2004.  In fact, to get a true understanding of how skillful he actually is, compare him with Dwight Howard.  The two of them are very similar.  In fact, Dwight is actually more athletic than Shaq ever was.   But many of Dwight’s criticisms – lack of offensive moves, inability to hit free throws, etc. – were weakne

NBA Finals Preview & Conference Finals Recap

We saw two series in each of the Conference Final matchups that resulted in not only the same number of games played, but shared many other similarities in terms of the complexity of the games.  Each series featured a team of veterans vs. the up-and-comers, with experience prevailing in both instances.  Oddly enough, both the Bulls and Thunder suffered colossal meltdowns (Bulls in Game 5, Thunder in Game 4) that led to their demise.  And although each series lasted only five games, the teams were very evenly matched.  A few lucky breaks for the Bulls or Thunder, here or there, could have extended the series to 6 or 7 games.   

Dallas, after convincingly dethroning the two-time defending champs, continued their stretch of impressive play and exhibited what was, for them, unprecedented mental toughness.  The tables have turned, as they are no longer the team that can’t hold leads down the stretch; they are poised on both ends of the court, and a super determined Dirk Nowitzki has taken his game to a whole new level.  If you saw a game where Dallas blew a 15 point lead in the last 5 minutes, you wouldn’t be surprised.  But this time, such a collapse was their opponent’s doing. 

At times, Westbrook lost his cool - and his poise - at
crucial moments during the Conference Finals

On OKC’s end, you can’t help but wonder about Russell Westbrook.  A year removed from his impressive performance against the Lakers last year, he was heavily criticized during this playoff run for his questionable decision-making and often for taking shots away from Durant (their true go-to guy) in crucial moments.  It also appeared that James Harden and Eric Maynor were the team’s better playmakers; recall that the Thunder’s lone win was in Game 2, when Scott Brooks chose to bench Westbrook for the entire 4th quarter.  What’s more troubling was his apparent immaturity he displayed, especially in Game 5.  At one point, he shoved Jason Terry into the 1st row – which probably would have warranted a suspension had there been a Game 6.  After the final buzzer, Westbrook pulled a LeBron by storming off the court without shaking the Mavs’ hands.  If he wants to become a great player, he’s going to have to grow up.  The good news is, he’s only 22 years old. 

This year's MVP struggled  mightily against
 the much-improved D of LeBron. 

After their Game 1 loss to Chicago, Miami was once again a subject of over-scrutiny and found themselves on the “What’s Wrong?” headlines on every sports show.  Derrick Rose showed everyone why he was this year’s landslide MVP winner, dropping 28 on the Heat and was the main catalyst behind their 10-0 run in the 3rd quarter of Game 1.  Also, Taj Gibson had a couple poster-worthy highlight-reel dunks, images that really captured the Bulls’ statement game. But since then, it’s been all Miami.  D-Rose’s youth finally caught up to him, making crucial turnovers seemingly in every game since his standout Game 1 performance.  His decisions down the stretch of Games 2 through 5 were shaky at best.  Credit LeBron, who clamped down and dared Rose to take stepback jump shots over him.  

You can’t put all the blame on Rose, though.  Carlos Boozer, after snapping out of his funk for two games, went back to his old self and resumed his ongoing playoff struggles.  Boozer’s inability to live up to his contract is a disturbing trend that’s become a reality in recent years.  Tom Thibodeau has his work cut out for him this offseason in terms of what he’s going to do with his $85 million man.  The guy who backs him up, Taj Gibson, has clearly been more effective – particularly on the defensive end – during their entire playoff run.   Is Thibodeau going to bench Boozer next year in favor of Gibson?  He should, but I wonder if Bulls GM Gar Forman (who signed Boozer to this big contract last offseason) would be happy with that decision. 

In the end, the Thunder and Bulls have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.  They both lived up to their higher expectations coming into the regular season.  Nobody anticipated that the Bulls would get the league’s best record, ahead of the likes of Miami, Boston, and the Lakers.  Consider that they had a first year coach, a third-year superstar player, and glaring weaknesses at the 2-guard position - and they've had a heck of a season.  As for the Thunder, they have nothing to worry about; their FOUR best players (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden) are only 22 years old or younger.  Rick Carlisle even said that they were much better than the Lakers, whom they faced (and swept) in the previous round.   

This wasn't their year, but the Bulls and Thunder may very well
face one another in a future Finals matchup

Ultimately, Chicago and OKC are both are going to learn from this experience and, without a doubt, contend for the title for years to come.  Youth is the only thing that kept them from getting past Dallas and Miami.  In addition to their aforementioned issues, both teams will need to make minor tweaks over the offseason, but should be well off with their main core for the foreseeable future.  

And now for the fun part:  predicting this year’s NBA champs.  This is a real toss-up, as both teams have been impossible for their opponents to put away late in games.  Dallas has only lost 3 games total so far in the playoffs, and Miami’s only lost 4.  The headline everyone likes to label these Finals with is:  “Can Dirk avenge the Mavs’ 2006 infamous collapse against Wade’s Heat?”

Wade annihilated Dirk's Mavs in 2006;
can Dirk turn the tables this time around?

Everyone likes to compare this year’s Finals to that of 2006, even though only 4 players from that series remain (Wade, Haslem, Dirk, Terry).  For the sake of comparison, let’s look at Wade and Dirk.  Wade was an absolute monster in that Finals series; according to ESPN’s John Hollinger, Wade had the greatest performance in NBA Finals history.  As the undisputed Finals MVP of that series in just his 3rd season in the NBA, Wade swayed some (including me) that he – not Kobe or LeBron – was the league’s best player.  And back then, nobody could really argue that.

Just as a painful reminder, Dallas was winning by double digits midway through the 4th quarter of Game 3 after securing a 2-0 lead – only to blow that lead and the following 4 games.  In fact, Miami’s Game 6 win in Dallas was their FIRST win in Dallas during the entire season – and it just so happened to be their title-clinching win.  We’ve seen Miami overcome these type of odds this year also – as was often pointed out, Miami was swept by Chicago and lost 3 of 4 games to Boston.  This goes to show that stats don’t mean ANYTHING  - especially when you’re talking about teams that are playing at the highest of levels in a 7-game series.  So, you better believe that Miami’s 0-2 regular season record against Dallas this year doesn’t mean anything, either (especially since both games were played in 2010).  Remember this, though:  when Miami won 21 of 22 games in a remarkable stretch of great basketball in December and early January, Dallas was that one team that beat Miami – on their home floor, to boot. 

Let’s go back to Dirk for a second:  many blamed him for Dallas’s total meltdown in that 2006 series.  Consequently, many questioned his toughness and doubted his ability to lead a team to a title.  While most of the criticism was unfair, he didn’t help his cause in that last Game 6 – he went 0-5 from the field down the stretch of that game, failing to capitalize on several wide-open jump shots.  Wade, conversely, devastated the Mavs and picked them apart in every way – on passes, drives to the rim, and from the foul line. 

Even against a top-notch defender in Serge Ibaka,
Dirk has been lights out from the field

Heading into these playoffs, however, the opposite trend is taking place:  Dirk has been scorching hot, while Wade has been relatively cold.  He’s dealing with a few nagging injuries (seemingly a common theme for him, unfortunately), resulting in limited effectiveness.  While he did come through in moments that mattered against Chicago (especially Game 4 where he hosted a block party by himself in the game’s last 2 minutes), he really hasn’t had a memorable D-Wade-type game yet.  This either means the injuries are bothering him more than he’s letting on, or he’s due for an explosion during these Finals.  As for Nowitzki, his performance to this point has been impeccable.  Yet you still wonder whether he’ll come through now that he’s back in the Finals against the very team that derailed him and his teammates. 

So what can we expect from the two superstars this time around?  My guess is that the individual trends thus far this postseason will continue for them (Wade cold, Dirk hot), regardless of the outcome of the series.  If Wade is not fully healthy, he may continue his struggles against Dallas’s solid zone defense.   Fortunately for Wade, he has LeBron on his side.  He is now getting more help than he could imagine from his superstar teammate, who has suddenly shown a killer instinct in Miami’s last two playoff series.  He is truly on a mission to silence all the hatred that’s come his way since ‘The Decision’, and he’s 4 games away from really sticking it to all the haters. 

Honestly, I’m rooting for Dirk and the Mavs.  Miami has had a great season considering all the “drama” they’ve been through all year (I’m putting “drama” in quotes because most of it was overhyped and over-scrutinized by the media), and the three-headed monster of Wade, LeBron, and Bosh will only get better for years to come.  They’ll have plenty of chances to win a title.  The Mavs’ window, however, is quite smaller than that of Miami’s.  Jason Kidd is reaching the twilight of his career at 38 years old, and Dirk’s toward the end of his prime at 32.  Dallas will be competitive in the West with this core for the next 2-3 years, but this may be their best chance to win the title.  After being heavily criticized for coming up short throughout his career, I think it would be very fitting for Dirk to finally win a title – especially against the same team that he faded against 5 years ago. 

While I’m rooting for Dallas, I really can’t see Miami losing.  With LeBron and D-Wade, a game is never out of reach for this team.  The two of them seem to turn it up a notch down the stretch of games, making it extremely difficult for opponents to put them away.  

Bosh and Miami's bigs have the ability to contain Dirk
- at least more so than Dallas' previous opponents

Also, note that Chris Bosh is going to be a huge factor in this series, and might give Dirk more problems than anybody else that he’s faced.   Bosh’s one-on-one defense is vastly underrated, and he is better suited against perimeter-oriented big men (like himself) than against true post-up players.  The dynamic of that matchup will be much different than the Dirk-Serge Ibaka matchup.  Ibaka is a great defender, but is more of a weak side helper/shot blocker than a one-on-one defender, which is why Dirk was able to pick him apart through the course of the Thunder series.  Bosh will not allow Dirk to beat him off the dribble; Dirk will need to utilize his post-up game a lot more than he has in any of their previous series.  On the offensive end, Dirk may have a hard time keeping up with Bosh, who has a sizeable quickness advantage on Nowitzki and thereby could put Dirk in foul trouble early in games.  With Miami’s Big 3 and superior defense figuring out a way to contain Dallas’s biggest weapons, they have a distinct advantage against the Mavs. 

So it’s the classic heart vs. head argument:  my head’s telling me Miami will win this, but my heart’s telling me Dallas will prove everyone wrong once again and Dirk will finally win a title that’s eluded him for so many years.  If that happens, who wouldn’t want to see commissioner David Stern pretend to be happy having to give Mark Cuban a championship trophy? 

My prediction, all things considered? Miami in 6. 

Changing of the Guards

So in case you haven’t noticed, I haven’t been writing a whole lot lately; I’ve been gone for 2 weeks on travel for work and unfortunately have not had any free time for blogging lately.  In that time, much has gone on that has happened relatively quickly, so we need to take a quick look at what happened and what we can expect through the remainder of the playoffs.

During my 2-week trip, I visited the Arlington National Cemetery in Washington DC.  One of the coolest things I got to see there is the changing of the guards at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.  At this location, a permanent guard from the 3rd US Infantry Regiment is mounted at all times - and there is a short ceremony of switching guards periodically depending on the time of day.  Beyond this literal meaning, the "changing of the guards" expression has become a metaphor for transferring duties of one person on to another.  In the case of the NBA, the metaphor refers to a former powerhouse team making way for another up-and-comer to take the reigns.  

To sum it up, this year’s playoffs have signified a changing of the guards.  Boston, LA, and San Antonio – three of the NBA’s dominant teams – are all out.  We have to get used to a conference final without Duncan, Kobe, and Pierce/KG/Allen.  The new up-and-comers – OKC, Chicago, and Miami – are in a position to take the reigns as the NBA’s next generation of elite teams.   

Let’s digest what happened to the Lakers and Celtics, and take a look at what we can expect in the Conference Finals. 

Dallas def LA Lakers, 4-0

Despite my previous notion that Dallas is tailor-made to beat LA, I went against my gut feeling and picked against them because, well, they’re Dallas.  But the Mavs shocked the world and completely picked apart the 2-time defending champs, exploiting LA’s greatest weaknesses:  pick-and-roll defense and inferior bench players. 

The Lakers never had to deal with Dirk in any 7-game
series before getting swept in this one

The scapegoat of this series has been Pau Gasol.  Let’s be clear, though:  the Dirk-led Mavs and Kobe-led Lakers have NEVER met in the playoffs.  Ever consider that the Mavs are just better?  I mean, Kobe and Andrew Bynum both had a pretty good series.  Beyond Gasol’s underwhelming performance, I think this was just a matter of the Lakers getting outplayed by Dallas more than anything else.  As I mentioned before, Dirk has had decent success against Pau in their head-to-head matchups over the years, dating back to Pau’s days in Memphis.  During all their successful playoff runs, the Lakers never had to face a guy like Dirk – someone who is devastating in any pick-and-roll situation due to his impeccable shooting and improving driving ability.  On top of Dirk’s great play, he had plenty of help from the Mavs bench.  Jason Terry absolutely torched LA, tying an NBA Playoff record with 9 three-pointers. 

This series also shows how worn out the Lakers are after 3 straight trips to the Finals.  After getting lit up by Chris Paul, Derek Fisher had a relatively favorable matchup against an older Jason Kidd.  But he has shown that it’s not just the younger and quicker point guards that give him fits; he just flat out has lost his ability to stay in front of anyone.  So, when JJ Barea came in the game, Fisher had no chance whatsoever.  Hell, Phil Jackson had to settle for subbing Shannon Brown in for Fisher to guard him.  While Kobe did OK scoring-wise in the series, most of his points came from contested jump shots (if memory serves, he only made ONE layup during the entire series). 

In the complete blowout that occurred in Game 4, the Lakers completely surrendered in what was probably Phil Jackson’s last game with the Lakers.  I don’t think he’s done coaching altogether; Mavs coach Rick Carlisle put it best, saying "My belief is that he’ll retire for a while," Carlisle said, "but I don’t know how long you can go to Montana and meditate and smoke peyote or whatever he does there. I don’t know. He’s going to get bored. And I mean that in an endearing way.”  You’ve seen coaching legends like Larry Brown and Lennie Wilkens come back from retirement again and again out of boredom.  Coaching is an extremely demanding job with high expectations, and he is among only 4 coaches with guaranteed long-term job security (the other 3 being Greg Popovich, Doc Rivers, and Jerry Sloan before he suddenly quit).  Generally, it’s tough for any successful and driven person to go from such a demanding and stimulating job to doing nothing.  Then again, what’s his motivation?  He needs a ring for his other big toe?

This series has the potential to go
the distance, and get testy along the way

Back to Dallas:  if they have indeed shed their label as a mentally fragile squad, they have the talent to finally avenge their 2006 collapse.  Charles Barkley seems to think that OKC is a better matchup for Dallas than Memphis would have been, but I beg to differ:  Dallas will have major, major problems guarding the two-headed monster of Durant and Westbrook.  Against LA, they’ve already proven that they could contain guys that can dominate the paint.  If they fared well against Bynum and Gasol, they would have been fine against Zach Randolph and the other Gasol.  But I don’t think they will have an answer for Westbrook and Durant, who will give Dallas fits. 

On the other hand, Dallas has some matchup advantages as well.  Serge Ibaka will have a harder time being matched up against Dirk than he did vs. Z-Bo and Kenyon Martin in their previous series.  He won’t be able to help his teammates in the paint, either, on penetrating perimeter players like Kidd and Barea.  OKC is not as deep as Dallas, either.  As long as Chandler continues to be an effective defensive anchor, I think Dallas will edge OKC in 7.   

Miami def Boston, 4-1

What many thought would be a clash of the titans-type matchup turned out to be a shorter series than expected.  Miami controlled the series from the get-go, with Miami’s Big 3 dominating the Celtics in every aspect.  They also got some unexpected help from James Jones and Joel Anthony; when the two of them were in the lineup, Boston seemed to struggle the most. The 5-man lineup of Wade-James-Jones-Bosh-Anthony has played a total of 3 minutes prior to Game 5, but I get the feeling we’ll see that more against Chicago (if that lineup proves effective). 

Considering how short this series ended up being, you can't help but wonder where Boston would be had they not traded Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder.  When the starting five of Rondo-Allen-Pierce-KG-Perk were all healthy, they NEVER lost a playoff series.  Danny Ainge will have some explaining to do, though it's not his fault that he got virtually nothing from the O'Neals.  Shaq and Jermaine have shown flashes, but not surprisingly, could never stay healthy enough to make steady contributions.  Still, this is by no means the demise of the Celtics.  With the core still intact and Doc committing to a 5-year extension, they should be able to re-tool their roster and be contenders again next year.  

There was some controversy with the way Miami celebrated after their win.  Personally, I didn’t have a problem with it for two reasons:  1) it’s really, really hard to put away a team like Boston the way they did, and 2) LeBron was clutch when it mattered, for once.  Let’s look at the latter reason.  Try to look at this from LeBron’s perspective:  here’s a guy who has been much-maligned all season long by everyone (myself included) for the way he left Cleveland, and his apparent inability to make plays down the stretch.  In this game, he put away a tough Boston team by scoring the game’s last 10 points.  When he was screaming to the Miami crowd and crying at the end of the game, that was his way to finally let out his relief considering all the hatred that came his way.

Was LeBron's emotional reaction to his breakthrough win a little over-the-top?
Maybe.  But it was understandable.

While I didn’t think there was anything wrong with the celebration, I do think it caused them to have an emotional letdown in their Game 1 loss against Chicago.  Chicago is by far Miami’s toughest matchup, as they are the NBA’s best defensive team and are best equipped to handle the two-man wrecking crew of Wade and Bron.  For the record, I still think Miami will win in six games.  Once they realize they are not even close to their goal of winning a title yet, they will re-focus on the task at hand.  Still, this will be an electrifying series that may very well go the distance. 

As the Conference Finals just began on Sunday, the changing-of-the-guards process happened quicker than we expected.  Now, we can just sit back and enjoy the next generation of great NBA teams going at it.

Second Round Predictions

As anticipated, no “expert” in the world predicted the 1^st Round correctly.  Since the Spurs and Magic were unable to turn on the switch after stumbling to the finish of the regular season, they proceeded to destroy my original predictions (though my Finals prediction of Lakers Heat is still intact).   

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series:  Memphis won 3-1

Prediction:  Thunder in 6

Obviously, Memphis has proven they are a force to be reckoned with.  This will be a long and grueling series, as both teams are young and athletic at every position with veteran experience.  The biggest difference in this series, however, is matchups with regard to Memphis facing OKC rather than San Antonio, particularly at the point guard position.  Russell Westbrook should have his way against Mike Conley with his relatively consistent jump shooting and slashing ability.  Tony Parker is more so a slasher and is extremely streaky from the perimeter.  When he’s cold,the inside presence of the Grizzlies (Randolph, Gasol, Darrell Arthur) were able to contain Parker’s ability to attack the paint.  He made several careless plays down the stretch of Friday’s Game 6 to boot. 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series:  Lakers won 2-1

Prediction: Lakers in 5

While I previously wrote that the Mavs are talented enough to beat LA, their lack of killer instinct shown most recently against the Portland Trailblazers in Game 4 has verified their mental fragility.  Needless to say, that will easily derail their chances against LA. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series:  Bulls won 2-1

Prediction: Bulls in 5

After Jameer Nelson infamously told Derrick Rose “See you in the second round!” after their last regular season meeting (horrible, horrible decision by Jameer, by the way), Derrick will think Jameer’s a liar when he sees the surprisingly resilient Hawks squad on the other side of the court instead of the Magic. 

You have to give credit to the Hawks for getting here, regardless how poorly the Magic played.  At the end of the day, though, Orlando would still have been a better suited to beat the Bulls than the Hawks are.  I can’t see Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson putting up big numbers consistently, but I do see Derrick Rose continuing his remarkable playoff run.  With Kirk Hinrich’s injury, Rose will have nobody in his way to stop him.  If Hinrich were healthy, I would give the Hawks a much better chance to make this series interesting. 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series:  Celtics won 3-1

Prediction: Heat in 7

This is easily the best series of the 2^nd round.  As Chris Bosh said, everyone knew this series was going to happen, and the Heat would have to go through Boston in order to win a championship.  Is Miami ready to dethrone the reigning Eastern Conference champs?  I think they will be.  My only asterisk to this prediction is that Spoelstra still may not have learned to NOT let LeBron have the ball late in close games.