LA Lakers 2011-12 Season Recap: Who's to blame?

NOTE:  This article will be published on Fansided's Saving the Skyhook blog, where I am currently contributing as a staff writer.

For the 2^nd straight year, the Los Angeles Lakers fell short in the Western Conference Semifinals.  And also for the 2^nd straight year, the vast majority of fans and the media have labeled it as a disappointing season.  Out of all the teams going fishing so far, I’ve never heard so many names being thrown around as possible scapegoats than the Lakers.  People think they know who to blame (for the most part, Pau Gasol), but they don’t seem to fully understand how much adversity has affected this team’s chances of contending for a title.

All things considered, the Lakers have overachieved this season.  Since the offseason, there was a series of team chemistry-crushing events that make me wonder why anybody expected them to win a championship.  First, their offseason turmoil last summer was overshadowed by that of the Orlando Magic with the Dwight Howard debacle.  After being swept by Dallas in last year’s playoffs, the Lakers did almost nothing to improve their team.  In fact, they took about five steps back over the course of the season.  Considering their lack of chemistry with this particular roster and style of play, current or incoming players that did not meet expectations, or uncertainty with the roster as well as coaching staff and general disarray, the Lakers should consider themselves lucky for getting this far. 

That being said, let’s break down the top three reasons why the Lakers fell short this year.

1. Instability of the team caused by the front office and coaching staff

The quality of roster management of this team has been shaky at best, and the trade rumors didn’t help matters there.  Star bigs Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum dealt were involved in trade rumors virtually all season.  In fact, Gasol was almost shipped as part of the Chris Paul trade that David Stern eventually nixed – something that many seem to think would have made them serious title contenders had Stern not rejected it.  Since last season, Bynum has been in trade rumors involving Dwight Howard.  Clearly, the trades made (as well as the trade talk) affected the chemistry of the team.  Even when Kobe Bryant pleaded to GM Mitch Kupchak to make up his mind on the trade rumors – particularly with Gasol – in an attempt to establish some stability for the team, Kupchak and the Laker management continued to keep the team in a state of limbo.  Even Derek Fisher – a staple of the Lakers’ success over the years and one of Kobe’s best friends – was sent packing.

Kobe Bryant wasn't - and still isn't - sure how long
either Gasol or Bynum would be his teammates

A lack of cohesion can be blamed on the coaching staff, as well.  On several segments of the ESPN/ABC studio show, I heard Magic Johnson make several critical comments about Mike Brown and his inability to make in-game adjustments.  He emphasized the fact that this has hindered Brown’s playoff success in years past with Cleveland, as well.  While I don’t disagree with that, people do need to understand how different his system is than that of his predecessor, Phil Jackson.  The Lakers got very accustomed to Jackson’s triangle offense, and Kobe and Gasol absolutely flourished in that system that helped them get to three NBA Finals (and winning two of them).  Talk about big shoes to fill. Adjusting to a new system takes time.  But at the same time, Brown had to realize that he did not have the personnel to run his pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop schemes.  Bynum and Gasol were vastly underutilized throughout the season, despite the two of them being a matchup advantage for the Lakers on a nightly basis.

2.  Pau Gasol got fed up

Short term memory? Just remember how
valuable Gasol was to LA's 09 and 10 titles

As I mentioned, there has been a lot of misplaced finger pointing going on.  One of the biggest scapegoats, of course, is Pau Gasol.  Now, because of how badly people underestimate Gasol’s impact as a Laker, allow me to take the time to defend him.  Since STEALING him from Memphis in 2009 (which was quite possibly the most lopsided and shadiest trade in NBA history), the Lakers have had a 70%+ winning percentage with Gasol.  In their two championship runs in 2009 and 2010, he outplayed many of the league’s premier power forwards and centers in crucial playoff games (Amare Stoudemire, Kevin Garnett, Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, and Nene to name a few), even after being universally labeled “soft” in his first season as a Laker in 2007-08.  He became arguably the best two-way big man in the league, and is one of the few top talents that don’t mind playing with Kobe (at least until now).   Being in the shadow of Kobe, his impact has been vastly underrated, and is one of the most underrated true team players on a championship team that I can remember.

That being said, Gasol obviously had a subpar and inconsistent year.  But before you go on blaming him, there are many reasons why Gasol’s play has suffered this season.  First and foremost is the coaching situation, as described above.  He thrives in the post – not running pick-and-roll offenses 20+ feet from the basket.  The second major factor why Gasol is so jaded was the aforementioned nixed trade for CP3.  You saw how Lamar Odom, who was in the same trade, reacted – he was distraught to the point where LA had to dump him to Dallas for basically nothing.  Gasol, on the other hand, maintained his professionalism throughout the season, despite continuing to be in trade rumors and being called out by fans (and sometimes his teammates…and by his teammates, I mean Kobe – more on that below).  When the trade for CP3 got nixed, I thought it was a blessing in disguise, as the Lakers front court depth would have suffered severely without him.  In the end, why he constantly seems get blame and a lack of appreciation is beyond me. 

After a few successful seasons together, you have to wonder
 if  Pau and Kobe's relationship has now deteroirated 

Let’s go back to Kobe for a second.  We all admire his drive and competitiveness, and the fact that he’s almost 34 and is still arguably somehow one of the top 5 players in the league (I was talking to a coworker, a Laker fan, about this:  he’s only a year younger than KG and is the same age as Jermaine O’Neal – yet we consider the latter two to be much, much older).  But this season, not unlike other seasons, he has made several team-dividing comments. When Kobe publicly criticized Gasol for his play in Game 4, TNT’s Charles Barkley couldn’t help but say that Kobe should have been the one to blame for his atrocious shot selection; the Lakers were up handily in that game, and Kobe went away from throwing the ball into Gasol and Bynum and instead took several contested long jumpers.  In the waning moments of Game 5, even with the game out of hand, Kobe was expressing a constant visible frustration toward Gasol on several plays where it appeared the two were not on the same page.  Let’s not forget that this is not the last time he has called out his teammates and refused to shoulder any blame – I will never forget when he completely quit on his team in two very important games:  Game 7 vs. Phoenix in the first round of the 2006 playoffs, and Game 6 of the 2008 NBA Finals vs. Boston.  As much praise as Kobe gets for his freakish durability, high level of play and intense competitiveness, instances like these can help one understand why many players don’t like playing with him.  I think he’s been extremely overcritical of Gasol, and I don’t think Gasol wants to play another possession with Kobe.

Because of these issues Gasol has had this season with both the front office and Kobe, I think he’s gone this offseason.  He’s sick of being in trade rumors, and he’s sick of being called out and blamed.  And when he does get traded, hopefully he will be in a system more conducive to his strengths.  Maybe then he will get the recognition as an elite player that he deserves. 

3.  The supporting cast was terrible

The issues went deeper than just the star players.  The Lakers’ supporting cast was among the worst of the league over the season (their bench was DEAD last in scoring this season).  Ron Artest, Steve Blake, Ramon Sessions, and Matt Barnes proved not to be effective enough to put the Lakers over the top.  Changes to the roster over the course of the season proved not to be very constructive, either.  Two vital pieces to their 09 and 10 championship runs – Lamar Odom and Derek Fisher – were no longer there.  When they acquired Ramon Sessions from Cleveland, I was suspicious that he would provide the same impact as Derek Fisher.  Early on, he seemed to be on track to proving me wrong (12.7 points, 6.2 assists, and 3.2 rebounds in 30.5 mins per game as a Laker).  But after a horrible postseason (9.7 points, 3.6 assists, and 3.0 rebounds a game), the Lakers have to wonder if they should have got rid of Fisher, who is now in a position to win a title NOT in a Laker uniform. 

Kobe had to get accustomed to playing without two of his best
role players in Lamar Odom (left) and Derek Fisher (right)

Before the playoffs even started, Artest didn’t help matters after earning a seven-game suspension for elbowing James Harden into a concussion.  His absence made the Lakers already-thin bench even worse, and was a big reason why LA even struggled closing out Denver in the first round.  In my opinion, they were very fortunate to even advance past them; if Blake didn’t catch fire in Game 7, the Lakers could have gone home much earlier.  Other than Jordan Hill, the Laker role players were a disappointment.

What should the Lakers do?

With Kobe making $30 million next year, there is not much that LA can do in free agency.  Their best move would be to throw Bynum and whoever else Orlando wants (other than Kobe) for Dwight Howard.  But then, you would have to look at the coaching situation.  If LA gets Howard, is Mike Brown the right coach for them?  He failed to find ways to get two of the league’s best post players to get consistent touches.  Howard had issues with his Orlando teammates for not getting the ball enough; how do you think he will like Brown’s offensive schemes? 

Some have gone as far as to say the Lakers should consider amnesty’ing Kobe.  As much as I blame him for having an adverse psychological affect on his teammates, I still think waiving him is an extreme.  Of all players on the team, he is the one lock to remain in a Laker uniform.

I know this is never gonna happen, but LA and Orlando should make the first ever head coach trade.  I honestly think both teams would be better off.

Summary

Ultimately, the Lakers’ failures have been a result of a lack of chemistry – from the front office to the coaches, and to the players as well.  The fact that they were a few breaks away from possibly being in a position to make the Conference Finals is nothing short of amazing.  I expect a major overhaul over the offseason, with Kobe being the lone guaranteed Laker next season.

After Season-Long Dwightmare, Stan Van Gundy Strikes Back

NOTE:  This article will be published on Fansided's Saving the Skyhook blog, where I am currently contributing as a staff writer.

If you thought the Dwight Howard drama came to an end after the trade deadline passed, think again.  After a mere few weeks passed, we saw yet another episode unveil in the Orlando Magic soap opera.  Once again, the media frenzy is surrounding the Magic – again.  On Thursday morning, Coach Stan Van Gundy revealed to the media that he was told that Howard asked Magic management to fire him.  When asked whether his coach was speaking the truth, Howard – who has been heavily criticized all season long –made himself look even more foolish in his subsequent actions and words in denial of SVG’s accusations.  In one fell swoop, this created the most egregiously awkward press conference I can remember to date (if you have a few minutes, it’s worth watching the whole thing – you’ll get a good laugh).

Thursday morning's press conference had Stan Van Gundy (left)
and Dwight Howard (right) in a bizzare and awkward situation 

Before offering my opinion on Howard, I will say this:  ESPN’s David Thorpe offered some very perceptive words about Dwight Howard on Thursday, saying that Howard “is really just like so many young stars in all careers — Bill Gates, Mark Zuckerberg, Steve Jobs, LeBron James and Kobe Bryant. Young men with enormous talent and a promising future, forced to grow up faster than they are prepared to do. Mistakes in judgment are made, and sometimes emotions ugly things up for a while. But I am sure that over time things will get better for him as he matures.”

While it’s so easy for all of us outsiders to criticize Dwight, we do tend to overlook what Thorpe pointed out:  he’s still a young 26-year old kid.  We just tend to ignore that because, like many lines of work, the NBA is another place that forces you to mature faster than you can.  That’s why Howard has been handling all of this so poorly – even though we have high expectations, maturity wise, for a team’s franchise player, being in a position to flex power and leverage can have dire consequences for an immature person.  So, while I am just as guilty as anyone of no longer giving Howard any benefit of the doubt, we do have to give him a chance to grow up after this experience.

Okay, enough of playing devil’s advocate.  That being said…

Howard simply cannot be trusted.  He has a disturbing tendency to throw everyone else around him – players, coaches, GMs, what have you – under the bus.  And as we found out before the trade deadline, he is extraordinarily flaky.  After Thursday night’s blowout loss to the Knicks (at HOME, no less), where Howard had a poor game (8 points, 8 rebounds, and was scoreless at the half), he claimed he was trying to get back in a rhythm after returning from injury - but still putting in max effort for his team.  Who’s BSing now?  If I’m a GM, I’d be weary of a guy who has a history of calling out his teammates for not being good enough and his coach for being too negative.  There are extenuating circumstances when a player has a right to complain to upper management about their coaching situation (e.g. Magic Johnson with Paul Westhead), but this is certainly not one of them.

After Dwight’s series of bad decision making, does LeBron James’ “Decision” look that bad anymore?  I don’t think it does.  Unlike LeBron, Howard has caused several uproars and imploded the team before even becoming a free agent.  Yes, I think Howard has made people hate LeBron a little less – and that in itself is no small feat.

Much of the hatred toward LeBron for his "Decision"
has been shifting towards Dwight Howard

Van Gundy has taken a lot of criticism as well – especially for revealing a supposedly private conversation with management to the media.  But if you were Van Gundy, would you WANT to keep quiet and continue to be a scapegoat in defense of a guy who’s trying to get you fired?  He has kept pretty quiet in the midst of all the turmoil for this long.  After Howard continued his subversive antics, you can’t blame SVG for saying what he said.  Let’s not side with the guy who – let’s not forget – is still handcuffing the organization by refusing to commit to them long term.  Why would GM Otis Smith take his advice on personnel decisions?

So what’s next for Van Gundy, Howard, and Orlando?

Don't expect many more exchanges between Van Gundy and Howard

I think Stan is going to resign.  Whether he’s lost the entire team is up for debate, as we’re not entirely sure if the rest of the team has any qualms with Van Gundy the same way Dwight evidently has.  If Stan has lost the team, then so has Howard; he has isolated himself by his flakiness and the constant criticism of everyone else around him.  The fact that they’ve had the 3^rd-best record in the East for most of the season is a miracle – and a testament to Van Gundy, not Howard.  But either way, there’s no way Van Gundy can keep this up for much longer.  If they think they can suck it up the rest of the season, they’re kidding themselves.

Analyzing the Effect of Trade Rumors on NBA Stars

Note:  this article will be published on FanSided's Saving the Skyhook blog.

With the March 15^th NBA trade deadline looming, many players league-wide are wondering what jersey they are going to don by week’s end.  Although it’s hard for the average sports fan to feel sympathy for multi-millionaire athletes dealing with uncertain futures, you have to wonder just how much the psyche of these players are being affected by swirling trade rumors.  One would think that the growing shroud of uncertainty constantly hanging over them has to wear on them in one way or another – both on and off the court. 

We’ve seen several high-profile players being shopped around over the last few years.  This season has been no different; rumors involving Dwight Howard Rajon Rondo, and Pau Gasol have been under the most scrutiny.  How have they been personally handling these rumors?  And what can we expect from them going forward after the trade deadline this Thursday? 

Gasol (left) and Rondo (right) have been saying all the right things,
but how are they really handling the constant trade rumors?

We recently heard Kobe Bryant stick up for his teammate Gasol by calling out GM Mitch Kupchak and the Lakers’ management.  He was publicly trying to relay just how difficult it is for Gasol (or any player being shopped around) to put his whole heart into playing for a team that’s actively trying to trade him.  Due to the sensitive nature of trade rumors and the private manner in which teams address them to the media, we have a relatively limited idea of how much of an effect they have on the implicated players.  We just saw the Lakers management tell their players to cut the external chatter short, in an attempt to minimize the drama caused from trade rumors.  So unless players publicly speak about their feelings, our opportunities to gauge their psyche are limited.  For that reason, the performance of these players in the midst of trade rumors may be our best way to make an assessment. 

Now, let’s examine a sample of prominent players that were involved in trade rumors and blockbuster trades over the last 10 seasons.   Whether these players were driving the trade talks themselves, or their respective teams put players on the trading block against their will, here are some of the more notable cases below.  The blocks highlighted in green denote a 10% improvement after the trade, while the red blocks indicate at least a 10% decline in the respective stats as shown.  For better resolution quality, please click on the figure.  Special thanks to ESPN TrueHoop blogger Ian Levy of Hickory High, who was a great help in putting these numbers together. 

If you go by a case-by-case basis, some players on this list wanted to be traded, and some didn’t.  And some, well, could have cared less.  Obviously, every player’s situation was different, and many variables factored into each player’s performance.  Nonetheless, the before/after comparisons are something very interesting to look at in light of Kobe Bryant’s aforementioned assessment on the impact of trade rumor drama.

Vince Carter made the biggest improvement of any star traded in the last ten  years

Bar none, Vince Carter gained the single-most benefit from the resolution of his situation after being traded from Toronto to New Jersey – and his gargantuan improvement shown in these stats reflect that.  But as he admitted, this was largely attributed to his half-hearted effort during his waning days in Toronto.  More than any star player in the last decade, Vince’s performance was directly correlated to how motivated he was.  In Toronto, he publicly criticized Raptors management for failing to put together enough talent around him to build a contending team.  When traded to New Jersey, he did all the things he failed to do during his last couple years in Toronto:  attacking the basket, playing some defense, and just putting in more effort overall.  Playing alongside Jason Kidd and Richard Jefferson was a huge motivator for him, as he spent years being the lone star in Toronto.  All of this led to a vast improvement in nearly every statistical category.  Of course, this was all short-lived, and Carter was not always engaged in subsequent years to date.  To learn about his ups and downs some more, take a look at my in-depth take on his career as a whole, which tries to explain his sporadic effort over the years. 

C-Webb (right) did not find greener pastures in Philly
playing alongside AI (left)

In contrast to Vince’s case, some players didn't exactly benefit from being traded.  Of everyone listed here, Chris Webber seems to be the one who suffered the most from changing jerseys.  Of course, injuries played into his decline (and eventual retirement) more than anything.   Nonetheless, then-Sixers GM Billy King’s experiment of pairing him up with Allen Iverson was obviously a failiure – as the Sixers only managed to obtain a 7^th seed and only win a single playoff game that season.  But given Webber’s and Iverson’s respective situations at the time – as two perennial All-Stars yet to win a title – both felt it was an experiment worth attempting.  I’m not entirely sure if Chris Webber was forcing his way out of Sacramento the same year he was traded, even though he did express a desire to leave before he became a free agent in 2001.  But I suspect that his decline was due to a combination of his injuries, his lack of cohesion with Iverson, and the realization that he had a pretty damn good team in Sacramento compared to his new team in Philly.

Dwight Howard has his eyes set elsewhere,
but is still playing well in Orlando

Unlike Rondo and Gasol, we know Dwight Howard has publicly requested to be traded.  Since he has been under the most scrutiny as far as trade rumors are concerned, let’s compare his situation to other superstar players demanding a trade in years past:  Shaq, Allen Iverson, Ron Artest (BTW, I still refuse to call him by his new name), and Carmelo Anthony.   Shaq showed slightly greater improvement and efficiency after being traded, which was to be expected after a bad situation (the most memorable part being his feud with Kobe Bryant) got worse in LA prior to being traded.  But of course, pairing up with the young but highly-gifted Dwyane Wade had something to do with that.  Iverson and Artest welcomed a change of scenery, but their +’s and –‘s in their stat comparisons were a relative wash; Iverson’s shot attempts went down, but he had to get used to having a high-volume shooting teammate in Melo.  Years later, Melo benefited from more shot attempts being in Mike D’Antoni’s system, but overall has been playing at about the same level since the trade.  So in the end, the superstars we’ve seen publicly demand a trade have neither improved nor regressed on a significant level.   

While we don’t see too much of a distinct pattern (at least, not to the same degree as with Vince Carter and Chris Webber) with most of the players on this list – at least in terms of individual performance –  this analysis does show that there is some precedence to the situations of Howard, Gasol, and Rondo.  In terms of a prediction, it’s tough to see any of them improving from their already-solid productivity with their current teams.  All three have been able to put up stellar numbers regularly, but they have all expressed disdain over the lack of resolution on their respective situations.   Their individual performances have not suffered, but their uncertain futures have had an effect on the success of their teams as a whole.  We saw the 2010-11 Nuggets improve significantly after Melo’s departure, even with Melo maintaining his productivity in Denver.  So while trades and trade rumors do not have a huge overall effect on individual performance (with a few exceptions), teams as a whole are put at ease upon resolution of the trade talk.  

Live diary on a busy night of NBA League Pass

Since the condensed NBA season has allowed me to consume my evenings watching several games for hours on end, I’m going to try to capture random thoughts I have for all of the teams playing in tonight’s games.

San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors

Spurs:  I’m 50/50 with my take on the Spurs.  First, I said early on in the season that no one should sleep on them yet – and now they are the West’s 2^nd best team at the moment.   With the Western Conference being up for grabs, I think they have potential to make the Conference Finals this year.  I was wrong about one thing, though:  Tony Parker should have been on my All-Star reserves list.  He absolutely deserves to be there.  He is the main reason the Spurs find themselves as 2^nd in the West. 

Raptors:  As the first team that the god-awful Wizards beat this season (after Washington started 0-8), Toronto was supposed to be awful.  Well, I’ve paid close attention to them in the last week or so, and they’re really not that bad.  Their point guard, Jose Calderon, is an above-average playmaker, averaging 8.7 assists per game; he’s 4^th in the NBA behind Nash, Rondo, and Paul – not too shabby. 

The unfortunate thing about Toronto is that they’re the epitome of talented-but-bad team that always finds ways to lose.  Against the Lakers the other night, they blew a 4-point lead and committed a crucial 5-second violation in the final seconds.  Monday night, they were victims of Linsanity.  And at this time of writing, they’re about to lose a close one to the Spurs.  They play well for about 40-45 minutes, but commit silly mistakes toward the end of games.  This is a team that badly needs veteran leadership and closers to contend – but I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic

76ers:  I can’t quite figure this team out.  Sometimes they look like legitimate contenders, and other times they fall flat.  Tonight was a good example of the latter, getting their butts kicked by a highly dysfunctional Magic team.  This is the problem with a team that has more than two or three go-to guys; it’s hard to get a team rhythm when five or six guys have to get in a groove for the team to be successful.  It works on nights when the ball is moving well, but it’s hard to do when you’re sluggish overall.  Lou Williams looks like the team’s best player (especially in the clutch), but it’s not by a wide margin. 

Magic:  Dwight continues to pad his stats on his emotionally detached campaign with this team.  But the guy who’s really impressed everyone is Ryan Anderson, who scored 27 points in this game.  Btw, since the All-Star 3-point shootout contestants were announced, I can’t decide who I’m going to pick to win it.  But Anderson definitely has a great chance – a guy who doesn’t use a lot of energy to get his shots up, his shooting stroke might be built to win such an event.  But the shootout is one of the least predictable events, unless Steve Kerr or Larry Bird are participating.   Anyway, I think the shootout will come down to him or Anthony Morrow of the Nets.

Sacramento Kings @ New York Knicks

Kings:  As J.M. Poulard (ESPN Truehoop Warriors writer) says, this team is a playground unit masquerading as an NBA team.  Walt Clyde Frazier, who’s calling the Knicks broadcast, can’t help but express relief on the Knicks finally being on the favorable end of a blowout.  That goes to show just how terrible Sacramento is – especially on the road.  Much like the Raptors, they have talent, but not the veteran leadership to help cultivate the roster. 

Knicks:  Ok..impossible not to mention Jeremy Lin in this paragraph, right?  I’ll keep this short since everyone in the sports world has beat this to death:  the team is playing well – will be very, very interesting when Melo gets back. Melo is saying all the right things now – but the minute he holds the ball on isolation plays for more than 2 seconds, boos will start coming down on him from the Garden.  Wondering when he’s coming back?  Don’t worry, there will be plenty of media attention on this.

Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics

Pistons:  Surprisingly playing well tonight on the road, but it may be because no one in Boston bothered to attend this game.  For a team that lacks talent, they still play hard. 

Quick side note:  Ben Wallace announced he’s retiring at season’s end, and is fittingly finishing the season in a Detroit jersey.  The closest precedence to Jeremy Lin, he was undrafted out of Virginia Union and blossomed into a defensive beast for several years on a very good team.  He will get serious consideration for the Hall of Fame.  I don’t think he should, but a dominant defensive player will always get the benefit of the doubt.

Celtics:  Rondo is back, but the Celtics offense is not.  For a pass-first point guard, Rondo sure has been scoring a lot lately – including a career high 32-point game on Sunday vs. Chicago.  They’re about to embark on a 5-game road trip, so maybe they’re just coasting in preparation for that.  They did sit KG, after all. 

Memphis Grizzlies @ New Jersey Nets

Grizzlies:  Man, this team can’t wait until Zach Randolph comes back from a torn MCL (probably after the All-Star break).  Still, even without him they’re beating the teams they should beat – such as the Nets tonight.  My only complaint with them is to get rid of the gnarly gold and green retro jerseys – it’s the only thing that makes me not want to watch them.

Nets:  Typical New Jersey game – Deron Williams gets a double double (26 pts, 11 assists), everyone else plays mediocre, and the Nets come up short.  Let’s hope Brook Lopez gets back from a broken foot injury as soon as possible, so that we don’t have too many terrible teams in the East.  I mean, look at the list:  New Jersey, Washington, Charlotte, Detroit, Toronto – the list seems to be growing.  Good thing Cleveland and New York seem to be decent now, otherwise the “Leastern” conference jokes would have ran rampant once again.

And speaking of decent Eastern Conference teams..

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Pacers:  Looked to still be shell-shocked after getting streamrolled by Miami the other night.  This no-show against Cleveland is their 5^th straight loss, and need to snap out of this funk as soon as they can.  With upcoming games against New Jersey, Charlotte, and New Orleans, I think they will. 

Cavaliers:  They managed to play well in Kyrie Irving’s first game back after sitting out with a concussion.  News flash – LeBron is returning to Cleveland to play this team on Friday.  Hopefully, the Cavs can actually be competitive against him this year. 

Charlotte Bobcats @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Bobcats:  Ugh – just a god-AWFUL team.  With a shortened season, they might not get past single digits in the win column over the entire season.  One of their biggest disappointments is the lackluster play of Tyrus Thomas.  When he was drafted by Chicago a few years ago, he had tremendous upside.  Now, I don’t think the Bulls miss him much.  I guess owner Michael Jordan still wishes there was still a lockout.

Timberwolves:  Kevin Love is a BEAST.  I mean, the guy gets more rebounds in games than people can in practice in a gym by themselves.  He’s putting up numbers that Wilt Chamberlain used to put up in the 60s.  And what some people don’t know is that he can shoot the lights out – which is why he was also invited this year’s All-Star 3-point shootout.   

New Orleans Hornets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Hornets:  Poor Hornets.  David Stern really screwed the pooch on this one.  First they pull of a blockbuster trade to get Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, AND Lamar Odom out of unloading Chris Paul.  Then, Stern rescinds the trade, and they get Eric Gordon, Al Farooq Aminu, and a draft pick from Minnesota.  Now, Gordon will basically miss the entire season, and Minnesota’s draft pick will not be as high as they originally thought (since the Wolves are playing well).  Stern not only is showing incompetence as a commissioner, but looks like a terrible team owner as well. 

Bucks:  Recently, Brandon Jennings said he’s looking into the possibility of signing with a bigger market team.  Why would he say that now, to the team that made him a lottery pick even after a year of playing terribly abroad?  Is that a slap to the face of the franchise or what?   He’s going to be a restricted free agent in the summer, so any offer he gets this year could be matched by the Bucks.  Still, with the new CBA, players get rewarded for staying with the teams that drafted them.  So, only time will tell if he actually leaves.  Such is the life for a small market team.

OKC Thunder @ Houston Rockets

Thunder:  As good as they are, I’m questioning whether this team is a shoe-in to the Finals this year.  First, they only have three guys (Durant, Westbrook, Harden) who can create shots for themselves and teammates. Second, they seem to be a jump-shooting team; Ibaka and Perkins don’t really have a low post game, and neither do any of their perimeter players.  Also, losing backup point guard Eric Maynor for the season hurts them more than people think.  If they don’t address these issues, I can see teams like Dallas and the Lakers giving them fits in the postseason. 

Rockets:  This team could upset someone in the first round of the playoffs.  In addition to keeping Martin and Scola, they have Kyle Lowry – the Rockets’ daily triple-double threat and an All-Star caliber player.  They’re my early favorite to earn the label “The Team No One Wants to Face in the First Round.”

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks

Nuggets:  Much like Indiana and Philadelphia, Denver is a decent team that’s been struggling lately.  After playing Dallas tonight, they are going to go through a brutal stretch in their schedule.  Take a look at their next eight games:  Memphis, OKC, Minnesota, LA Clippers, San Antonio, and Portland, Houston, then again San Antonio.  For a team that’s struggling and could use some easy wins these days, that’s rough.  They could really use Gallo right now.

Mavericks:  With Dirk rounding into shape, this team is starting to look like an elite contender again.  If only Lamar Odom can snap out of his season-long funk, I still think they have a great chance of defending their Western Conference title.

Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns

Hawks:  Still baffled by the snubbing of Josh Smith from the All-Star team.  What’s it going to take for this guy to make it?  Hopefully, Melo sits out the All-Star game and Smith takes his place. 

Suns:  Somehow, Steve Nash continues to play with remarkable efficiency and make his teammates better, even at age 38.  Yes, even guys like Jared Dudley, Grant Hill, Channing Frye, and Marcin Gortat are all beneficiaries of Nash’s brilliant playmaking.  Let’s try to admire Nash as much as we can before his inevitable departure from the game. 

Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors

Blazers:  After they were defeated handily by Washington at HOME last night, I’m not sure if this is a dangerous team anymore.  I know the Wizards have been playing surprisingly well lately, but still.  With the West being as loaded as it is, they need to address their issues in their backcourt.  I refer, of course, to guards Ray Felton and Wesley Matthews.  They’ve been subject to widespread criticism lately, and that’s only multiplied since their double-OT loss to Dallas on Saturday. 

Warriors: In my recent battle with insomnia, I’ve been watching the Warriors quite frequently even though their games are always on really late.  And I gotta say, I am very impressed with what first-time head coach Mark Jackson is doing.  He has the team playing pretty well.  The one major flaw this team has, though, is their lack of rebounding.  They are 30^th in the NBA, and it clearly hampers their ability to win close games.  On paper, they’re one of the more talented teams in the league.  But if they can’t rebound, they won’t even be a .500 team.

Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Clippers

Is this even worth talking about?  I’m tired..

Dwight Howard at it again

Since my last post about him, Dwight Howard is continuing to criticize his team, even in come-from-behind victories.  Take a read..

Howard must learn to share Magic spotlight

'via Blog this'

Letting Linsanity Sink In

There are two major reasons why we love to watch sports.  First, we admire the display of the world’s best athletes competing at the highest level.  The second – and much more powerful and impactful reason – is that we love seeing success stories, especially when the cards are stacked against them from happening.  As a whole, fans naturally root for the underdog and get caught up in the wave of Cinderella stories.  Much of the hardcore enthusiasm and pride instilled in sports fans comes from the inspiration and hope that a rare phenomenon gives them.

In the last week, we have been witnessing one of these phenomenons, the likes of which we’ve never seen before.  And it just so happens to be occurring within one of the most storied franchises.  I’m speaking, of course, of the one and only New York Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin.  In the last four games without “superstars” (yes, I’ll keep calling them that) Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire (Melo with a sore groin, and Amare coping with his brother’s untimely death), the Knicks have gone 4-0 – in large part due to Lin coming out of nowhere to lead his team to convincing victories over New Jersey, Utah, Washington, and the Lakers.  In those 4 games, Lin’s point/assist log looks like this: 25/7 vs. NJ, 28/8 vs. Utah, 23/10 at Washington (against last year’s No. 1 draft pick John Wall, no less), and a whopping 38/7 against Kobe and the Lakers.  With each game, Lin is gaining tremendous confidence, and has electrified the Garden.

Blowing by defenses left and right, Jeremy Lin has taken the sports
world by storm, and has the Knicks finally playing winning basketball

Since sneaking in to the NBA after 4 successful years at Harvard,
Jeremy Lin has gone relatively unnoticed by teams league-wide

Stats aside, this hasn’t been a good story; it’s been a GREAT story. After going undrafted out of Harvard, and between bouncing around teams in NBA and spending time in the D-League, this guy wasn’t on ANYONE’s radar.  Before Tuesday – when his contract became guaranteed – he was sleeping on his brother’s couch at night to save money.  Even Houston Rockets GM Daryl Morey couldn’t help but praise the guy and express regret for not giving him a chance.  Of all the point guards on the Knicks roster – Baron Davis, Iman Shumpert, and Mike Bibby – who would have ever thought that Lin would be the answer as the floor general? 

These days, everyone in the sports world is asking if Lin’s remarkable run can be sustained, and whether he’s actually for real or just a one-week wonder.  I’ll put my answer simply:  One great game is an aberration.  Two is a trend.  Three is reality.  And four?  Well, considering the competition and the spotlight, his performance is no fluke.  Plain and simple - the guy can play.  He's constantly beating guys like Deron Williams and John Wall off the dribble.  Although turnover-prone so far in his first few games playing big minutes, his playmaking ability is top-notch.  And hey, he can dunk!  To put it in perspective, he's SECOND in PER - right behind freaking LeBron!  How good can he be?  It's tough to tell; I'm not going to say he's All-Star material, but I would say he could be a solid backup point guard on a contending team.  But more importantly, he needs to be in the right system to be effective.  Even with his new-found confidence, I think the quality of his play is always going to be dependent on the team and playing style.

Here’s a crazy thought:  what if Lin keeps this up through the rest of the season?  Imagine this scenario if Linsanity continues:  he’ll land a big contract over the off-season after teams commence on a bidding war for him.  Next season, he’ll be put on the All-Star ballot.  If the Lin bandwagon multiplies by then, fans WILL vote for him - especially from China and Taiwan.  While still pretty crazy and farfetched, Lin being voted as a 2013 NBA All-Star starting guard is not completely beyond the realm of possibility.  I mean, we all remember how many All-Star votes Yao Ming got – and even Yi Jianlian almost got voted in when he was put on the ballot a few years ago.  But Yi was not causing nearly the stir that Lin is now.  How crazy would that be?

Carmelo Anthony's ball-holding ways will be tough to mix
with Jeremy Lin's free-flowing pick-and-roll offensive style

Okay, now that I have gotten all the praise out of the way – time to play Devil’s Advocate.  Realistically, the Knicks are still not a winning team.  Before Linsanity started, New York was off to a disappointing 8-15 start in a year they had higher expectations.  Mike D’Antoni was on the hot seat, and Melo and Amare’s superstardom has come into question (and rightfully so).   So while they are having success without those two, you have to wonder how their return will impact the team.  As I’ve beat to death over and over, Melo and Amare happen to be two gifted scorers with the same team-killing deficiencies.  Defensively, they are two of the worst starting forwards in the league.  On offense, the two scoring juggernauts and iso-happy games severely penalize the team’s overall ball movement.  Without them, Lin and the Knicks have been primarily running pick-and-roll plays, where Lin has been incredibly effective.  In that scheme, there has been a free flowing offense that we are used to seeing from D’Antoni-led teams.  But when Melo and Amare return, I just can’t see them letting Lin dictate the offense – especially Melo, who has never taken kindly to the idea of being a second fiddle.  Over his entire career, he has never given me any reason to believe that he can adjust for the betterment of the team – at least not yet.  And if Melo continues dominating the ball, Lin's play might suffer.The subsequent destruction of chemistry is my biggest fear for the Knicks as a team, in the aftermath of Linsanity. 

So if this fear is realized, and the Knicks struggle integrating his two stars with Lin, what does D’Antoni do?  Does he put his foot down and tell the team that Lin will be the team’s primary playmaker, and ask his two stars to put their egos aside?  Can he somehow integrate Melo and Amare’s scoring prowess without adversely affecting the team’s successful style of play lately?  Tyson Chandler has really stepped it up on both ends of the court, but will he keep it up?  I don’t see any positives from this happening, but for the sake of Knicks fans, I really hope I’m wrong.  Knicks fans have experienced far, far, far more disappointments and letdowns than success throughout their lifetime, so hopefully this can turn around their fortunes on a more permanent basis. They are long overdue for some optimism in the team.

Regardless of this particular team’s success, I think Lin has turned his own career around and will never again have to worry about finding a place to crash.  Whether or not he can sustain this run, he has instantly impacted the league and inspired fans worldwide in a way that few ever have before.  As fans, let’s not question him and just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

My 2012 NBA All-Star Reserves

The fan voting has ended and the 2012 starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced.  Now it’s time to ponder who should fill out the remaining rosters to play at the big game.  This is one of the weirder years to make such picks, with the shortened season being a huge factor.  With only a month of basketball to base our All-Star picks, players sitting out due to injury will have a huge disadvantage.  And without much of a training camp, most of the league has been sluggish over the first month of the season – resulting in a relatively poor quality of play overall so far.  So, a lot of my picks will have shaky logic behind them.  I realize this is hard to read, so click on the chart to pull up a better view.

What do I think of the fans’ selection of the starting lineup?

The fans did OK here for both teams, with the exception of voting Carmelo Anthony as the starting forward for the Eastern Conference.  With the Knicks struggling and currently out of the playoff picture, Anthony deserves some blame for the disappointing start.  There are many players over the years I can think of off the top of my head – e.g. Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Allen Iverson – who are considered top-tier players and perennial All-Stars, but whose teams get better after they leave.  Those are exactly the kind of players that can be considered overrated, or at least the players whose talents don’t translate to winning team basketball.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:  Melo is no exception as one of these players, as evidenced by Denver’s success and New York’s woes. As I’ve said repeatedly, I believe both Melo and his teammate Amare Stoudemire are stars only by name, not by deed. They would be much better served as 3^rd or 4^th options on a team behind true stars that know how to facilitate their teams, where they can afford to be just scorers and not facilitators.

Chris Bosh has stepped it up during his second season
in a Heat uniform

So if not Melo, who should have been picked instead?  Easy:  Chris Bosh.  He has been on an absolute tear this season, setting out to prove that there really is a Big Three in Miami.  Dwyane Wade has battled injuries all year, but Miami has gone 8-1 in the games in his absence – in large part due to Bosh’s much-improved play.  The question of whether he can be an effective third wheel still remains, but there’s no question he’s worthy of a spot on the All-Star team.

The rest of the starters on both teams are spot on, although I would have been OK with Russell Westbrook getting the nod over Chris Paul as the starting guard out West.  Then again, CP3 has been filling up the stat sheets lately and has propelled his Clippers to 2^nd best in the West.  His latest string of games has been particularly impressive, helping his team handily defeat the Thunder at home, and getting tough road wins against Denver and Utah (no small feat).  They are an elite team, and their franchise fortune-turning play is well deserving of having two All-Star starters represent them.  

MY RESERVE PICKS

Key Omissions due to Injury:

Rajon Rondo (Boston), Luol Deng (Chicago),  Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)

Eastern Conference

We've seen plenty of J-Smoove highlights -
but somehow no All-Star appearances

Since Bosh should be starting, he should be a lock for a reserve spot.  The Hawks have been playing great basketball despite losing Al Horford for the season, and Joe Johnson and Josh Smith have both been the main reasons why.  Oddly enough, Smith has NEVER been selected as an All-Star, but I can’t see coaches snubbing him this year.  Even without Horford, I think the Hawks are good enough to give Miami or Chicago (depending on the seeding) a run for their money in the 2^nd round of this year’s playoffs. In any case, Johnson and Smith should both make the team.

As I do every year, I base my picks off of teams who are winning.  Since Philadelphia and Indiana have played winning basketball this year, they absolutely must have some All-Star representation.  Jrue Holiday has been the key to the 76ers’ great start; he has been orchestrating an offense responsible for getting SIX players averaging double figures in points, with Evan Turner (9.8) and Jodie Meeks (9.0) not far behind.  He and Andre Iguodala have been the primary playmakers for this team, averaging 9.7 assists between them.  I’m not sure if anyone had Philly winning the Atlantic Division this year, but they’re going to win it by a long shot.

The 76ers have become the league's most surprising team this season

A broken nose hasn't stopped Roy Hibbert from
becoming one of the league's elite bigs

For Indiana, Roy Hibbert has become a beast in the paint and has added another dimension to the Pacers’ offensive and defensive schemes.  He’s displayed his fair share of toughness as well, especially against the Lakers – where he broke his nose and played through it to help the Pacers to get a road win in LA.  

It’s funny seeing Danny Granger and Iguodala as my wild cards, because of how similar their situations have been in recent years.  Neither of their teams has been particularly good in years past, but the two of them have been steady leaders for their squads for a few years now.  Two of the most dynamic and athletic wing players in the league, they have had plenty of help this particular season from their respective supporting casts – and it has translated to their teams’ success.  

Western Conference

Aldridge is long overdue for an All-Star bid

After declaring Westbrook a shoe-in, this is where things get tough.  Kevin Love has arguably become the best power forward in the league (how many PF’s have ever averaged 25 points and 15 rebounds?), so you can’t exclude him.  Besides, Larry Bird has been craving for white superstars in the NBA - you gotta appease the Legend.  Anyway, let’s keep going:  LaMarcus Aldridge was the biggest snub last season, so I don’t think coaches will leave him off the team this time around.  Rudy Gay has filled in admirably for the Grizzlies after Zach Randolph went down, so he is deserving of a first-time All-Star bid as well.

Nene is one of Denver's
many solid pieces

So after rewarding players who are long overdue, let’s try to reward the teams that are winning – like the third-place Nuggets.  Denver is a team much like Philadelphia and Indiana – one without a true superstar, but full of very good players.  Still, you have to reward them with at least one All-Star.  I picked Nene, since there are not many other very good Centers in the West (or the league, for that matter).  As much of a bad rap as Dallas has gotten for their slow start, they are still sitting in 4^th place overall in the West.  For that reason, I just can’t get myself to deny Dirk an All-Star bid – even though he’s played well below his potential and has missed several games due to injury. 

This leaves one more spot, which should go to someone from either Utah or San Antonio.  Since Manu Ginobili, the Spurs’ leading scorer, has been hit with injuries all season, I can’t pick him.  Utah, though, has exceeded everyone’s expectations.  Their two bigs – Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson – have both been a load for opposing front courts.  So since I can’t decide which one of them should get the bid, I’ll say that they are both equally deserving.  I hate how shaky my logic has been for this, but there are going to be some players in the West that are bound to get snubbed.

The Dwight Predicament

As the Orlando Magic’s losing culture is growing stronger by the day, everyone league-wide is wondering the same thing:  is it time to trade the franchise player?  This question is consuming the entirety of Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith’s thoughts, as the NBA community is awaiting his next move in the Dwight Howard trade rumor saga.  A situation that’s gone from bad to worse, this is a team that needs answers.  And fast.

What is going on with the Magic?  Are the trade rumors hurting the team that much?

Things have worsened exponentially over the last week or so.  It started last week with a humiliating blow-out loss to a depleted Boston Celtic team without Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen, and managed to score only 56 points.  Then a few days later, they completely melted down and blew a 27-point 1st half lead against the very same depleted Celtic team.  In case anyone wondered if this would carry over against one of the worst teams of the league, New Orleans routed them 93-67 on Friday.  Sunday night, they got blown out at home by Indiana by 21.  And in their attempt to reverse their disappearing act the next night, they came up short against Philly.

All Dwight can think about is when - not if - he's leaving Central Florida

All teams go through dry spells.  But given the magnitude of defeats and circumstances surrounding the team, it’s hard not to attribute these struggles to Howard’s swirling trade rumors.  After the aforementioned blowout loss to the Hornets, Howard bashed his teammates and their lack of effort.  He’s been known to call out his teammates to the press before, but this time it’s become evident that his peers have given up on him.  He's also publicly criticized head coach Stan Van Gundy's abrasive coaching style.  That’s why, as a superstar, asking for a trade puts you in a TERRIBLE spot.  An irreversible chain of events occurs and the team starts to self-destruct.  First, your teammates and coaching staff begin to question your commitment and loyalty.  Once that happens, you are no longer in a position to call out your team in hopes for a positive result.  In their eyes, they’re thinking, ‘what’s the point of giving your all for a guy who wants to leave anyway?’ 

We’ve seen precedence before of a lame duck superstar in a contract year.  Just to avoid bringing up painful memories for Magic fans of losing Shaq (and better yet, to pick a more recent example), Orlando’s situation is mirroring that of the Denver Nuggets involving Carmelo Anthony last season; Melo demanded a trade at the beginning of the 2010-11 season and, after months of speculation and indecision on the part of Nuggets management, he finagled his way to New York.  

Much like Dwight today, Melo had to address
trade rumors on a daily basis last season

Let’s compare the similarities between this year’s Magic and last year’s Nuggets.  While Melo was still a Nugget during the first half of the season, the team chemistry was horrific.  Yes the team was still winning some games, but deep down, his teammates knew he wanted to leave.  They knew his heart wasn’t in it.  They knew Melo was playing only to pad his stats and sell himself to the Knicks.  I’ve never seen a player so emotionally detached from a team – until now with Dwight.  Much like Melo last season, Dwight’s body language has been visibly terrible since the start of training camp.  Even though he’s still putting up decent numbers, you can tell his heart is not in the game.  And you can tell his teammates have quit on him.

But why is Dwight so hell bent on leaving Orlando? They really aren’t that bad – they’re only 3 years removed from an NBA Finals appearance…

From a pure basketball standpoint (turmoil aside), the Magic
 aren't too many pieces away from returning to the Finals

I honestly don’t know, and I don’t think anybody really does.  Despite being only 3 seasons removed from an Eastern Conference title, Howard feels change of scenery is needed.  Like many marquee free agents before him, Dwight Howard is looking for greener pastures – but his motive is unclear.  He says he wants a better chance to win a championship, but it makes you wonder when he makes outrageous David Kahn-like suggestions – such as telling the front office to keep Gilbert Arenas.  Does he want to play with his buddies, be in a bigger market, or have a better supporting cast?  Based on his wish list of destinations, the answer to that is not very clear.

As of now, he has a short wish list of destinations:  New Jersey, LA (Clippers AND Lakers), Dallas, and now Chicago.  Just by simple reasoning, you can figure out why a trade hasn’t happened yet with any of these teams.  We know the Nets have NOTHING of value to trade for him – particularly with Brook Lopez’s broken foot.  The Clippers would have to give up Blake Griffin (who, btw, just mesmerized the league with his ridiculous dunk theother night) to get Dwight, which I don’t think they would be willing to do right now even if the trade itself makes sense.  Otis Smith has told the Lakers he will not settle for less than Pau Gasol AND Andrew Bynum (they’ve only offered Bynum).  Dallas and Chicago are already championship-caliber teams that will be hesitant to gut their rosters to get Dwight during such an abbreviated season.  Thus, trade talks have been at an impasse.

What’s next for the Magic?

That’s a tough question that only time will tell.  In any case, Magic fans better brace themselves for many seasons of mediocrity.  Even though the Nuggets went through the same situation last year and came out smelling like roses, the results for Orlando parting ways with their superstar will be completely different.  Right now, the Nuggets are now a MUCH better team than they ever would have been with Melo, and so everyone in Denver is glad to see him gone (and struggling in NY).  You can’t complain about the results of the trade as a Nugget fan – since the trade, the Knicks have gone 21-27 with Melo, while Denver improved remarkably without him – and is now sitting at 2^nd overall in standings of the loaded Western Conference.  In contrast with Orlando, it’s hard to envision a similar result when Dwight leaves.  Melo is more of a ball-stopper (which is KILLING his Knicks right now), while Dwight has more of a team anchor-like presence and is not the one dictating his team’s offense.  Since Melo’s departure, Denver improved tremendously on defense, while it’s hard to imagine Orlando replacing Dwight’s superior defensive presence.

The Denver Nuggets couldn't be better without Melo, but it's hard to see the same
success story panning out for the Magic without Howard

If you’re Otis Smith, here are your options:

1)      Trade Dwight ASAP in hopes of ending the current state of turmoil and take the best offer on the table.

2)      Call everyone’s bluff and wait until the trade deadline to solicit everyone’s BEST trade offer, or...

3)      Wait it out until free agency and see if you can keep him, or get the best possible sign-and-trade deal.

Option 3 should be ruled out at this point, as he’s made it clear he doesn’t want to stay.  So, unless he wants to lose Howard for nothing this summer, Otis Smith should just bite the bullet at some point this season and follow one of the first two options.

I’ll close this blog post with one thought, as I talked to my friend John about this recently:  why the hell is Orlando not a more appealing destination for free agents?  Brand spanking new arena, great weather, no state taxes – I’d really like to know why players aren’t biting at the bit to move to Central Florida.  Of all the superstars who have been wanting to move in the last few years – Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. – NONE have even entertained the idea of wearing a Magic uniform – even to play with the league’s best center.  Perhaps that's really why Howard is moving forward with a trade request?  Please comment with your theories on this, because I’m at a loss.

If you think that trade rumors don’t affect players and their teams that much, think again.  

Reaction to the First Week of the 2011-12 Season

With just over a week of games behind us, I wanted to make some quick notes on which teams I think are overrated, underrated, playing as expected, and teams we can’t judge yet.  Keeping in mind I am not making mention of every team at this point, here’s my early take on the NBA landscape:

Overrated:

New York Knicks

In the playoffs last year vs. Boston, the Knicks were competitive during the series’ first two games.  Then, Chauncey Billups got hurt, and they were swept shortly thereafter.   Well, after the team waived Billups this offseason, and with Baron Davis hurt, did you really expect the Knicks to be that good?  With Toney Douglass running the show, I have my doubts.  Sure the team signed Tyson Chandler, but he can only clean up so many mistakes that their porous D makes. 

With glaring weaknesses in their back court, it could be
 a very long season for Stat, Tyson and Melo (left to right)

“Superstars” Melo and Amare still have a LOT to prove, or they’ll be getting the overrated label themselves in the near future (if they haven’t already).  I foresee them definitely make the playoffs, but with teams like the Hawks and Pacers improving, and the Magic appearing to tread water – despite the drama surrounding Dwight’s probable lame duck season – I’m not so sure they’re good enough to obtain home court advantage in the first round.

Underrated:

Dallas Mavericks

Don’t be fooled by their slow start.  At the end of the day, I still don’t see any clear-cut team out West that’s truly better than them yet.   Vince Carter’s play has been a pleasant surprise so far, as has that of Delonte West.  Their regular season record may be so-so by season’s end, but I have no doubt that Rick Carlisle will have this team ready come playoff time.

Atlanta Hawks

As long as Atlanta keeps their three All-Star caliber
players, they are a virtual lock to be a top-4 team in the East

After shocking the world by eliminating the heavily-favored Orlando Magic in last year’s playoffs, this team appeared to take a step back by losing scoring juggernaut Jamal Crawford in free agency.  But in only five games, this team has proved once again that they are not to be overlooked.  But last I looked, they still have Joe Johnson, Josh Smith - who better make the All-Star team this year, as he hasn't yet been selected for one yet - and Al Horford.  And with Larry Drew running the show after a great first season as head coach, I don't think they're slowing down anytime soon.

Btw, did you see T-Mac playing like it’s 2003 vs. Miami and beating down the Heat?!  That blast to the past may have been the highlight of the season for me so far.  If he keeps this up in crunch time situations for the remainder of the season, the Hawks could be a real sleeper in the East.

Indiana Pacers

The team that gave a slight scare to Derrick Rose and the Bulls in last year’s playoffs has improved considerably this season.  You probably weren’t blown away by their acquisition of David West and George Hill, but Larry Bird has quietly constructed a talented and deep roster.  As long as West finds enough touches playing alongside Roy Hibbert, they have an above-average inside-outside attack scheme. 

As Expected:

Top Guns – Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder

The two teams that started off 5-0, the Heat and Thunder are popular picks to meet in the 2012 NBA Finals.  At this early stage, who can argue with that?  In Miami, LeBron and D-Wade are playing as well as they ever have.  LeBron, in particular, has shown noticeable improvement in the low post, after working with Hakeem Olajuwon over the summer (following the advice of Kobe Bryant and Dwight Howard, who also benefited from the Dream's teachings) - one particular new move I noticed that has proven effective is where he holds the ball high and faces up in the "pinch" post, and in one motion, pulls up for a short jumper (a move too quick for defenders to stop, especially in that triple-threat position).  Miami also found a diamond in the rough in rookie Norris Cole, who already has received MVP chants.  Once Shane Battier gets acclimated and Mike Miller returns to health (which has been dubious lately), I can see Miami going on multiple double-digit win streaks this season.

KD is making a strong case to
be the league's best player

We also expected Kevin Durant and the OKC Thunder to come storming out of the gates.  Btw, I’m not going to make too much of the Westbrook and Durant scuffle last week vs. Memphis; I don’t believe there was any animosity there between the two.  They both are great players, and they both want to do whatever it takes to win.  Westbrook clearly has some growing up to do (particularly after the tantrums he pulled when Dallas eliminated OKC in last year’s WCF), but I think the two of them have patched things up.  Anyway, expect the Thunder to be the Western Conference’s top playoff seed this season.

Bottom Feeders – New Jersey Nets, Washington Wizards

These two teams have two of the league’s most dynamic point guards.  But that’s about all they have going for them.  Brook Lopez could not have picked a worse time to get hurt, and this could prove disastrous for the Nets in their efforts to surround D-Will with talent – and more importantly, to even keep him after he becomes a free agent this summer.

Paul Westphal (right) has grown tiresome
of Cousins' (left) pouty behavior

DeMarcus Cousins

I know, I know – dedicating a section for a particular player is not consistent with the format of this post, but I need to bring this guy up.  Prior to being drafted 5^th overall by Sacramento in the 2010 NBA Draft, teams expressed a lot of concern about 21-year old Cousins’ maturity, or lack thereof.  Today, Kings Head coach Paul Westphal has publicly criticized Cousins’ poor demeanor, toxic attitude, and questionable work ethic.  In only his second NBA season, this guy has had his fair share of meltdowns going back to his days at Kentucky.  Wasn’t this guy supposed to prove his critics wrong?  Is he ever going to stick it to the teams that passed him in the draft?  I don’t think so, but he’s going to have to get his act together.  In a league where immensely talented Centers are hard to come by, someone else will give him a chance (the Magic and Nets are two rumored potential destinations).  But I’m not convinced that he’ll wise up anytime soon.

TBD:

Los Angeles Clippers

When the Clips acquired Chris Paul, people (myself included) immediately pinned them as playoff contenders.  But don’t be shocked at their early-season struggles.  With several shakeups to their roster over the offseason, they still need time to gel as a group – especially on defense, which has been atrocious in these first few games.  Lob City is still an appropriate team nickname, as they will undoubtedly have a very potent offense.  But Vinny Del Negro is going to have to get his team to crack down on D.

Memphis Grizzlies

One of the more disappointing teams in the league so far, Memphis has started off very slow after shocking the top-seeded Spurs and forcing hard-fought games against OKC last season.   With the hope that Z-Bo’s knee injury isn’t serious, this team still has a chance to recover from their rocky start.

The “Old” Teams – Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs

Everyone has dismissed these teams as title contenders, but I think there is hope yet for these aging veterans.  Their regular season record won’t wow you – especially since coaches Doc Rivers and Gregg Popovich will rest their top players on their respective teams often during this heavily condensed season.  But in the playoffs, you still never know if they have one more playoff run left in the tank.  By no means do I expect them to be serious contenders, but I’m not counting them out quite yet.