2011 NBA All-Star Weekend Predictions

Charles Barkley said it best:  The NBA All-Star weekend is THE greatest such event in all of sports, in terms of the quality of the festivities and the celebration of the sport.  Charles, among the other great analysts on TNT, makes for great entertainment himself – both on TV and at the party scenes throughout the weekend.  Has there ever been such a weekend where he HASN’T lost his voice?  If so, the weekend festivities should forever be banned from that city.  That’s a pretty safe standard to set for the All-Star weekend city selections every year.

As far as the weekend itself – both fans and players love it.  For those who aren’t involved, they get a good weekend of rest in the midst of the regular season grind to either go home or partake in the off-court events with their peers.  It’s such a great weekend, though, that a lot of players forgo potential time to spend with family on this weekend to attend this.  All sorts of parties are going on, and a high concentration of basketball wives probably file for divorce during this time frame every year. 

LA's Staples Center is the place to be for all athletes and sports fans this weekend

All-Star weekend is the one weekend where I don’t mind being a complete hermit – where I stay in and watch the games.  Since I’m friends with mostly older, boring married people, that’s seemingly what I’ve been stuck with doing lately, anyway.  But for this one weekend only, I don’t really mind.   It’s also a set of games where I prefer not to watch it in a public setting where I can't hear the commentary (i.e. a bar or restaurant showing the games on TV).  All of the great personalities on TNT cover every event of the weekend, and it is really worth watching and listening to them.

I'm going to take a look at each of the events on Saturday and Sunday night in Los Angeles this weekend.  Since I didn’t have time before the Rookie/Sophomore game to put together an assessment, I obviously am not posting a prediction for it.  For the record, I thought the Sophs would win – simply because the Rookie Teams won just once in the past 8 years.  In all fairness, this and the Sunday All-Star game are the hardest to predict, since they’re both the friendliest of competitions.

This weekend comprises of more partying than actual competition, so predicting the events is a bit useless.  But it’s still fun to take a look at the participants and break them down.

Shooting Stars:

Participants:

Team Atlanta: Al Horford (Hawks), Coco Miller (WNBA's Atlanta Dream), Steve Smith (Legend)

Team Chicago: Taj Gibson (Bulls), Cathrine Kraayveld (WNBA's Chicago Sky), Steve Kerr (Legend)

Team Los Angeles: Pau Gasol (Lakers), Tina Thompson (WNBA's L.A. Sparks), Rick Fox (Legend)

Team Texas: Dirk Nowitzki (Mavericks), Roneeka Hodges (WNBA's S.A. Silver Stars), Kenny Smith (Legend) 

Predicted Winner:  Team Texas (Dirk, Hodges, Kenny Smith)

This is an event that’s not taken very seriously – especially since it involves WNBA and retired players.  Still, I enjoy watching it.  If you’re not familiar with this competition, it’s a contest where three players on each team score from designated spots on the court as fast as they can.  Each of these teams has one representative each from the current NBA, current WNBA, and retired NBA player groups.  I’m not gonna lie:  I don’t know about 99.5% of WNBA players.  But I do know that a lot of them are better shooters than a lot of NBA players.  In this prediction, I am assuming all 4 WNBA representatives shoot comparably well and offset one another.  

This event is exactly what the name implies:  it comes down to shooting.  Let’s compare the retired guys:  Steve Smith and Steve Kerr are obviously two of the greatest shooters of all time, but I think they spend a bit more time on air than Kenny Smith does.  Therefore, I think Kenny has more time to keep up with his play than the other two.  In contrast, Rick Fox probably spends absolutely 0 time playing basketball, and most of his time on his “acting” career and hitting on washed-up celebrities.  I expect him to be completely washed up himself, and drag down Team LA. 

Team Texas is poised to defend their 2010 title

On a side note, I don’t think the NBA on TNT would be nearly as amusing without Kenny Smith.  As I’ve said multiple times, the three-man booth of he, Barkley, and Ernie Johnson has been by far the best sports TV studio crew.  Chris Webber has really added to the great mix of personalities, also.  Take a look at the one of many great clips of their escapades.  My personal favorite moment was when Barkley lost a bet, where he didn’t think Yao Ming (in his rookie year) wouldn’t score 19 points in a game and had to kiss Kenny’s ass.  Everyone knows Charles is hilarious, but Kenny’s presence makes the studio show even more entertaining.  C-Webb has only been in the studio for a couple years (after just retiring in 2007), but he has been a great addition to the team after some of his own great-but-uncivilized moments with Gary Payton on NBA TV (here’s one of the many great segments of theirs making fun of Joe Johnson).  Anyway, I’m glad that TNT covers this weekend every year.

Back to the competition:  out of the current NBA guys in this one, it isn’t even close – Dirk is by far the best shooter.  With Dirk and Kenny having the advantages over their respective counterparts, I pick them to win. Team Texas destroyed the competition last year, and I expect more of the same this time around.

Skills Competition:

Participants:  Stephen Curry (GSW), Chris Paul (Hornets), Derrick Rose (Bulls), John Wall (Wizards), Russell Westbrook (OKC)

Predicted Winner:  Derrick Rose (Bulls)

This event has only been around for a couple years, and it’s been very successful and entertaining (unlike the horrible H.O.R.S.E. competition the previous 2 years).   Point guards in the NBA are extremely skilled, and any one of these dynamic guys could win it.  In this contest, players go through dribbling and passing obstacles, with a shot drill in between. Usually, the competition comes down to who makes that one shot the quickest – as all of these players are similar in terms of speed and ball handling abilities.  There is also a bounce pass drill that is fairly difficult, unless Steve Nash is doing it.  Ultimately, this will come down to the player with the best combination shooting and passing, assuming speed and ball-handling skills are a push among the five players.

D-Rose can reclaim his 2009 title

Chris Paul is the most seasoned of the players, making him the favorite to win the competition.  Curry is the best shooter, but I get the feeling that the losing culture of being on Golden State will get the best of him somehow (just as it did in last year’s three-point shootout).  Rookie John Wall might be the most gifted passer, but his shooting woes have been well documented – the pressure to hit that one shot might be too much for him.  Eliminating Curry and Wall, it should be a toss-up between Paul, Rose, and Westbrook.

At the end of the day, I think Derrick Rose is set out to prove his worth as the NBA’s best point guard.  With an improved jump shot and his usual blistering speed and quickness, he has all the weapons to win.  Although this is a friendly contest, it can’t hurt Rose’s case for the title of best point guard if he goes on to win. 

Three Point Shoot-out

Participants:  Ray Allen (Celtics), Kevin Durant (OKC), Daniel Gibson (Cavs), James Jones (Heat), Paul Pierce (Celtics), Dorell Wright (GSW) 

Predicted Winner:  Ray Allen (Celtics)

Can KD get hot and be the three-point King?

In my opinion, this is the best event of the weekend in terms of pure competition.  The Slam Dunk Contest is a good way to wrap up the Saturday night festivities, but there haven’t been very many down-to-the-wire competitions.  The three-point shootout, on the other hand, usually comes down to 2 or 3 great shooters. 

As far as the prediction, I think this would only be fitting, as Ray has recently surpassed Reggie Miller as the NBA’s All-Time leader in three pointers made.  Surprisingly, he’s been in the contest four times (01, 02, 05, and 06) and has only won once (01).  Still, with his lightning quick release and devastating accuracy, he should be the favorite in every shootout he participates in.  After Paul Pierce pleaded for both he and Ray to be in it, I am predicting the contest to come down to the two of them. 

Pierce broke the scorers-cannnot-win stereotype last year, surprisingly out-shooting great gunners like Stephen Curry and Chauncey Billups (as well as defending champ Daequean Cook).  But I just can’t see him winning two straight years.  James Jones, Dorell Wright and Boobie Gibson are all more of catch-and-shooters with slow and methodical strokes in rhythm, so I’m having trouble seeing them making any noise.  Durant has great range and consistency as a jump shooter, and I could see him being a sleeper.  I just can’t see back-to-back years of a scorer winning the competition.  I’m going with the Greatest Shooter Ever.

Slam Dunk Contest: 

Participants: DeMar DeRozan (Raptors), Blake Griffin (Clippers), Serge Ibaka (OKC), JaVale McGee (Wizards)

Predicted Winner:  Blake Griffin (Clippers)

This is as foregone of a conclusion as the Rookie of the Year debate is.  This competition usually comes down to the atmosphere – the buzz from the crowd (and players in the crowd) usually dictates how this contest goes.  It’s really hit-or-miss. 

The problem with this contest is usually the lack of star power.  In the old days, all the high-flying superstars gladly participated.  Now, the great dunkers come up with one lame excuse after another.  In my opinion, LeBron really hurt his popularity by never participating.  At first it was because he didn’t want to be known as a “dunker.”  Now, he just side-steps the opportunity and quietly dodges any questions that try to prompt him to justify why he declines every year.  Many players outright decline to dunk, but LeBron tends to enjoy teasing the fans by declaring his intent to enter the contest (only to back out of it later on).  Out of all things people bash LeBron for, I’ll be bitching about that every time the subject of him and All-Star weekend comes up.

If players want to be like MJ, they should at least do the dunk contest

The other problem with the contest is that a lot of players are one-and-dones, especially if they feel they get jipped by the judges.  Andre Iguodala had one of the greatest slam-dunk performances in 2006 vs. Nate Robinson (especially with this incredible behind-the-backboard dunk), but got completely hosed in the final round.  He was so jaded by the experience that he refused to do it again.  Vince Carter, who had arguably the best display of all-time dunk-manship in 2000, decided not to defend his title in following years.  I guess players these days have a bigger fear of losing their pride.  MJ, Dominique, Jason Richardson – they all did the competition multiple times out of respect for the fans.  During All-Star weekends, you can put pride aside and make it all about the fans.  Unfortunately, today’s players can’t seem to grasp that.

The Slam Dunk title is Blake Griffin's to lose

Thankfully, Blake Griffin is more than willing to participate.  DeRozan is the only opposition in the field that I can see making some noise, if he comes up with some creative ideas.  McGee is a flashy put-back dunker, but I think he and Ibaka will both fail to shed the heavy discrimination that big guys receive at this contest.  Dwight Howard was an exception, as he anchored his athleticism with unprecedented creativity (embracing the label of ‘Superman’). 

At the end of the day, the heavily favored Griffin will be one of those guys that will command the crowd’s attention – ala Dominique, MJ and Vince.  Even simple dunks will look spectacular for him.  The others will have to really raise the bar with their creativity to make him sweat, and I just don’t see that happening. With his ups and powerful finishing abilities, Griffin is easily the favorite to win the contest. I also think he will be motivated to win to honor his friend and ex-teammate that died due to complications of Hodgkin's lymphoma on Wednesday.

All-Star Game

Participants:

EAST TEAM
Starters
Dwyane Wade, Guard, Miami Heat
Derrick Rose, Guard, Chicago Bulls
LeBron James, Forward, Miami Heat
Amare Stoudemire, Forward, New York Knicks
Dwight Howard, Center, Orlando Magic

Reserves
Ray Allen, Boston Celtics
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics

WEST TEAM
Starters
Kobe Bryant, Guard, Los Angeles Lakers
Chris Paul, Guard, New Orleans Hornets
Carmelo Anthony, Forward, Denver Nuggets
Kevin Durant, Forward, Oklahoma City Thunder
Yao Ming, Center, Houston Rockets (injured, will not play)

Reserves
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves (injury replacement)
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
Russell Westbrook, Oklahoma City Thunder
Deron Williams, Utah Jazz

Predicted Winner: East

Out of all the events, this is most futile to make a prediction.  First, you never know which players are hung over from drinking heavily over the weekend.  I suspect David Stern will never, ever allow an All-Star game to take place in Las Vegas ever again, after the 2007 fiasco.  Lots of variables are there off the court.  On the court, every player screws around for 3 quarters and whoever happens to have the lead clamps down and wins the game in the 4^th. 

I don’t know if East coach Doc Rivers will do this, but he has the option of playing all four of his guys (Rondo, Allen, Pierce, KG with a choice of Dwight or Al Horford at Center) at the same time.  Remember the 2006 game, when Detroit also had four All-Stars (Chauncey, Rip, Sheed, Big Ben)?  When all four of them were put in the game, the East went on a huge run and eventually won the game.   Generally, throwing 5 All-Stars (on different teams) on the court for one game doesn’t make for good chemistry – as greatly evidenced by pre-2008 USA Olympic team failures.  When four players with great chemistry are on the court together, they will pick apart five guys on the other team that never played together – even in a non-serious scrimmage-type atmosphere.   Because the possibility of that strategy being implemented for Doc, I am going with the East.  I’ll go out on a limb and say Derrick Rose will be MVP of the game, to further put his stamp  on the league as a star among stars. 

If East head coach Doc Rivers really wants to win, he can play all of his guys

In the end, you shouldn’t bet money making predictions on All-Star events.  Everyone involved is there to have fun, and that’s the beauty of it. Players want to party, not get hurt.  Coaches don’t really want to coach.  Still, it’s spectacular seeing so much star-power all together in the same place and it’s fun to break down the contests.  Next year, when the games take place here in Orlando, I am going do to everything I can to snag tickets for the event. I would really like to see what the atmosphere is like in person, as that is what the weekend festivities are really all about.