NBA Playoff Predictions Part III: NBA Conference Semifinals and Beyond

Every year, we see the same trend through the second round of the playoffs.  NBA haters, to this point, will scoff at the lack of upsets in the 1st round and spew off some hogwash about how boring the NBA playoffs are if all the top seeds advance as predicted.  The East, in particular, has such a large gap between the 4^th (Orlando) and 5^th (Atlanta) seeds on down, which is why no 1^st round series there will be all that interesting.

What the haters must understand, though, is that the uncompetitive games and matchups from the 1^st round are coming to an immediate halt starting in the 2^nd round and onwards.  From the 2nd Round on, all pretenders are weeded out and it's a battle of the contenders from then on.  At this point, outcomes become extremely hard to predict.  Regular season records between teams will mean virtually nothing to this point, especially with all the heavyweights involved.  And, in a 7-game series, NBA coaching staffs are able to put together scouting reports that are more detailed than you can imagine.  The margin for error for all these teams, to this point, will be minuscule. 

I’ll try to predict the 2^nd round on based on my 1^st round predictions, though do know that I will make these predictions again regardless after the 1^st round is over (especially if my 1^st round predictions are wrong).  I honestly don’t really know who’s going to win the title this year – it really is going to depend on who faces who going forward, since the fortune of teams will vary greatly based on matchups. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Bulls, 3-1

Prediction:  Magic win 4-2

I suspect I will be the minority in this prediction.  Hear me out:  these are one of those matchups that might be favorable for Orlando.  I still stand by the fact that Orlando got really bored of the regular season, especially Hedo Turkoglu.  Hedo WILL step up in the playoffs, and has always been very effective at running the Magic offense – especially in clutch situations.  They still have deadly shooters all over the court, even if JJ Redick is dealing with an injury.  I suspect Howard and Bass to give the Bulls frontcourt fits, especially Carlos Boozer. 

By the way, as I’m writing this, I’m watching Game 1 of the Bulls-Pacers.  Even if they didn’t accomplish the furious rally in Game 1, I fully expect the Bulls to win the series handily – though you have to take your hat off to Tyler Hansbrough and the Pacers for making this series interesting.  While I knew Boozer is an awful defender (and have mentioned that before), I didn’t expect Hansbrough to exploit him this much.  On offense, Boozer has had tremendous difficulty against the elite bigs of the NBA (see the last several Laker-Jazz playoff matchups and his awful performances against Pau Gasol).  Against a guy like Brandon Bass, I expect him to have the same difficulties.  Joakim Noah holds his own against most centers, but not Dwight Howard; Noah’s only 0-rebound game came in a 107-78 loss against Howard and the Magic earlier this season.  If the Bulls utilize their other bigs – Taj Gibson and Omer Asik – a bit more against the Magic’s formidable frontcourt, then they will fare better and may be able to win the series. 

For now, I’m predicting the Magic to utilize their deadly inside-outside game.  With Howard controlling the paint, Rose is going to have to take on a crazy load offensively and create scoring opportunities for his teammates.  The one guy who could screw this up for Orlando is Gilbert Arenas, who has somehow gotten worse as the season progressed.  If he is guarding Rose, he will get lit up just as bad – if not worse – as Boozer will by Howard and Bass.  Nevertheless, unless Rose has a monster performance for the ages (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does), I think the Magic will find a way to hang on.  The Rose-led Bulls have never been past the 1^st Round, and I think their inexperience will catch up to them against the veteran Magic.  Chicago is a great team, but they aren’t quite there.  Yet.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series:  Celtics, 3-1

Prediction:  Heat win 4-3

These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions lately, though the Celtics proved last year that limping towards the finish of the regular season is not indicative of how they’ll perform in the playoffs.   Still, the loss of Perkins and Nate Robinson will catch up to them in this series.  If Shaq was healthy, I could see him giving the weak Miami frontcourt some problems.  But he’s not – he’s literally played 5 minutes since February 1^st.  The guy probably hasn’t done a full workout in a year, which is probably why he’s bound to sprain something if he exerts any energy whatsoever.   

Even with their shortcomings, the Celtics are still going to be a very tough out, and I anticipate this series going down to the wire.  If Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and KG log heavy minutes, they will keep the games close.  But I have no faith in their supporting cast to hold their own against Miami, not that the Heat’s role players are any better.  Overall, I think Miami’s improved over the course of the season and the superstar trio will overmatch Boston’s aging roster. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season Series:  Spurs, 3-0

Prediction:  Spurs win 4-3

OKC is a popular pick to win this series, especially given the fact that these two teams have gone in opposite directions since February.  The Thunder have gone 13-3 since acquiring Perkins (and not by coincidence, Ibaka’s improvement), while the Spurs have stumbled to the finish and barely held on to the 1 seed.  Many think they peaked too early, and are a popular pick to lose this series given Ginobili’s health issues.  Those are all valid arguments, but I am banking on Ginobili to regain his form and for Tim Duncan to take on a bigger load offensively.  They are the West’s version of the Celtics with regard to turning it on for the postseason.  Don’t forget that they were the 7^th seed last year and completely dismantled Dallas in their first round matchup, albeit that was the Mavericks we’re talking about.   The Thunder are much like the Bulls, in that they’re still a very young and talented team.  But inexperience may hurt them against a team like the Spurs.

I could very well be wrong, especially if Ginobili or any other Spur isn’t 100% healthy.  But I think people continue to dismiss the Spurs way too quickly, and they will shock the world even though this technically wouldn’t be an upset. 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series:  Lakers, 2-1

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-3

A few weeks ago, I would have picked Dallas to steal this one from the Lakers.  This team, as I’ve mentioned before, is built to beat them.  Now, after seeing them lately, I have my doubts.  Unlike the Celtics, Lakers, or Spurs, I do think this team needs to be in a good groove heading into the playoffs and can’t just turn it on.  Assuming Dallas has a tough time with Portland, they may be too worn down against the well-rested Lakers (assuming they have an easy time with New Orleans), allowing Bynum, Matt Barnes, and the other less-than-100% Lakers to get some rest before facing the Mavericks.  I still think Dallas will give the Lakers some tough matchups, particularly with Nowitzki spreading the floor if he’s matched up with Gasol.  But Phil Jackson will find a way to get in the head of the Mavericks, which is probably not too hard for him to do. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

The two Floridian teams have experienced up-and-down seasons.  But after all their struggles, here they are in my version of the Conference Finals.  One can’t help but point out that Miami will have no answer whatsoever for Howard, who is bound to dominate the series.  However, in the end, Miami’s suffocating defense will overwhelm the Magic’s perimeter players.  Howard will get frustrated having to constantly help out his teammates that will get abused by Wade and James slashing their way to the rim, which will possibly lead to foul trouble on his part.  Over the course of the series, that will wear on Orlando.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-1

An OKC-LA conference finals matchup is what everyone wants to see.  After the Spurs ruin that possibility, LA is their worst possible matchup of any elite team in the playoff bracket.  I just can’t help but remember LA’s complete beatdown of the Spurs on March 6^th in San Antonio, where they completely manhandled the Spurs and led by as many as 32 points in that game.  Ultimately, I think that’s going to resemble the dynamics this series more so than any of their other regular season matchups.  As great as Duncan is, he will be worn down by Gasol and Bynum in the post.  Ron Artest will probably get matched up against Ginobili, who tends to struggle against physical defenders.  This leaves Kobe on Jefferson, making the Spurs’ only matchup advantage at the point guard position (Parker on Fisher). 

NBA FINALS

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Heat won 2-0

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

This is the dream matchup for David Stern and the NBA.  The presence of Bryant, Wade, and James will make for TV ratings galore.  As I’ve written before, Miami matches up better with this Laker team than anybody in the league.  With Miami having home court, they should be able to impose their style of play on the Lakers.  With their stifling defense, Wade and James don’t both have to play well.  If Wade continues to give Kobe problems on both ends of the floor, that will allow LeBron to focus his energy on offense and continue to be a Laker killer.  Of all perimeter superstars, James is bothered the least by Artest’s physical defense.  Also, while Gasol has a matchup advantage on Chris Bosh, Bosh can space the floor with his consistent 17-18 foot jump shot and keep Gasol honest (i.e. away from the paint on defense), as can Zydrunas Ilgauskas against Andrew Bynum. 

Miami is the one team that you can say is truly not afraid of the Lakers, and I think this would show in the playoffs.  The only question is whether Miami can get there – I could see them having trouble against the Bulls if Orlando fails to eliminate them.  But the playoffs are about matchups (sick of me saying that yet?), and Miami should be able to capitalize on their offseason splash of bringing their dynamic trio together.

This would be a storybook ending to what has been a true roller coaster ride.  It appears the team finally figured out the right formula for winning:  let LeBron run the show for the first 3 quarters, and then have Wade be the closer.  They've also managed to get Bosh more involved, as his numbers have picked up as the season progressed. For them, it would be very impressive to win a title in their first year under incredible scrutiny since the Big 3 announced their "Decision."  Winning a title would be the only way that would make their welcome party look like a good idea.

Again, nobody is ever 100% correct in predicting every playoff series, so I will reassess these predictions as each round progresses.