NBA Playoff Predictions Part I: East 1st Round

It’s playoff time!  We have 4 months of high-level, intense, and must-see basketball that will wash away the disgusting taste of this year’s March Madness out of everyone’s mouth.  Contrary to popular opinion, it really is hard to predict what will happen in this year’s playoffs.  If the Lakers, Celtics, or Heat win this year, you’ll hear everyone say, “I knew that was gonna happen.”  But you don’t.  Last year, some thought Boston was going to lose in the first round, including die-hard Celtic fan Bill Simmons.  Instead, they had the champion Lakers on the ropes until late in the 4^th quarter of Game 7.  This year, four Eastern Conference teams have a legitimate chance to take the title, as do 3 Western teams (in my opinion, of course). 

For now, I will just go over the 1^st round matchups of the Eastern Conference that are already established. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS – ROUND 1

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

Season Series: Bulls won 3-1

Prediction:  Chicago, 4-0

Let’s get this one out of the way.  This will be by far the most lopsided series of the playoffs, though there have been underdogs in the past that have made 1^st round series more interesting than most predicted.  Be that as it may, Indiana has absolutely no answer for Derrick Rose.  Not many teams do, but most playoff teams have better defensive weapons than Darren Collison and TJ Ford.  Interestingly, though, Indiana’s lone victory during the regular season vs Chicago included a 42 point outburst by D-Rose.  So, if Indiana manages to let Rose (who only had 2 assists that game) be a scorer and clamps down on the rest of his teammates, they may steal a game.  They have the talent to do that, especially since they have rebounding machine Jeff Foster combating with Noah and Boozer.  But I don’t see them making it any more interesting than that. 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Season Series:  Heat won 3-0

Prediction:  Miami, 4-1

More intriguing of a matchup than the Chi-Ind series, but still not all that intriguing.  Miami swept the regular season series, and two of those games took place before December – back when the Heat were struggling and many thought they were a team in turmoil.  Since then, then went on to win 10 straight on the road in December, had an up-and-down roller coaster-type season while the Big Three tried to develop some cohesion amongst themselves; they’ve only gotten better as a team since then, so Philly will have their hands full.  The Sixers have a very athletic team that could give the old guys on Miami (Bibby, Ilgauskas, Howard, House, etc.) some problems, and Andre Iguodala  has the talent to somewhat contain either LeBron or D-Wade.  Doug Collins and his squad may make things interesting for a game or two, but in the end, Miami shouldn’t have any trouble.

One question about the Heat, though:  where is Udonis Haslem?  Considering all the annoying news bits you hear about this team, the team is sure quiet about him.  Is he anywhere close to returning?  When he tore a ligament in his foot early in the season, he was expected to return sometime in April.  If Miami wants to contend for a title, they’ll need to get him healthy.  It’s not like Haslem is a guy that needs to play multiple games to get in a groove in order to help his team; his effectiveness lies in hustle plays and defense.  Those instincts will return very quickly once he returns. 

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

Season Series:  Celtics won 3-0

Prediction:  Boston, 4-1

This is by far the most interesting series of the Eastern Conference on paper so far, but only because of the presence of big-name players on big-name teams.  Without beating around the bush, I don’t think the Knicks can win more than a game.  Each game might be competitive for about 3 and ½ quarters, but I don’t think the Knicks are poised enough to close out a game against the veteran savvy of the Celtics.  Say what you want about Boston and how they’re not as good as last year – I’ve been as critical of them as anybody of their awful play since the Perkins trade.  But as I mentioned earlier, nobody thought they were going to be any good last year, either.  In the end, the Big 4 will turn it on and, in a 7-game series, will know how to get in the heads of Amare and Melo, players with volatile personalities.

All three regular season games between these teams were competitive, but the Celtics managed to get the upper hand in the 4^th quarters of each of those games.  I know regular season games usually don’t matter, but I don’t see that trend changing for this particular matchup.

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series:  Hawks won 3-1

Prediction:  Orlando, 4-1

See?  I don’t always go by who wins the regular season matchups.  Anyway, let’s face facts:  the Magic aren’t as good as they were last year.  But neither are the Hawks.  In this series, they’ll still have trouble matching up with Dwight Howard.   These teams only matched up once since the trade that brought Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas to Orlando, so this regular season matchups have to be taken with a grain of salt. 

A big x-factor in this series is Joe Johnson.  For some reason, he hasn’t been able to come through for this team in the playoffs.  Why Atlanta decided to pay him the most money out of ANY big-name free agent last summer is completely beyond me (and everybody else, including Atlanta fans).  I’ve seen him as a matchup nightmare for most teams in the league, especially Boston.  If the Hawks somehow got matched up with Boston last year, I honestly think they would have won.  But they didn’t – unfortunately, they got obliterated by Orlando and lost each game by an average of 20+ points.  I have said this before and I’ll continue to reiterate this:  playoffs are ALL about matchups.  Just because the Celtics won the East last year, it doesn’t mean they could beat every team in the East; they just happened to match up with the teams they were suited to beat. 

And since the playoffs are about matchups, I do think the Magic, among the other 3 teams in the top 4, have a legitimate chance to win the title.  Although they are somewhat limping here at season’s end, I still stand by the theory that they’re just bored of the regular season; once they warm up against Atlanta in the playoffs, they’ll have a GREAT chance of surprising everyone and make the Finals.  They are a team better suited for the playoff grind as long as Dwight’s anchoring the middle.  As I’ve said before, they will sorely miss Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus – but not Vince Carter.  The one team I can’t see them beating is the Lakers.  But I’ll get to that later.  In this series, I don’t see any differences in the dynamics of this matchup to that of last year.   

I’ll predict the Western Conference matchups (and subsequent rounds) as soon as the seedings are finalized after tonight’s regular season finale.