Quick take on the Playoff’s First Round So Far

I’ll say this much:  I’ve never seen a first round this good.  Never have I seen most, if not all, of the lower seeds play so well.  I predicted some landslide first round matchups, and that’s been far from the case in every series so far.  Even in the lopsided series in terms of games won, the lower seeded teams have admirably battled against their heavily favored opponents.  We did manage to see one sweep so far (Boston over NY), but that series was very competitive until the Knicks could no longer sustain injuries to their key guys (Billups, Stoudemire).  Most experts deemed the top four seeds from each conference superior to the remaining field, but one wouldn’t have been able to tell that by watching the games so far.  In other words, nobody (including me) predicted an upset.  Now, it turns out of all eight first round matchups, HALF could end up in upsets (with Memphis, New Orleans, Portland, and Atlanta potentially winning).  I’m not saying that’s likely, but few thought those four teams would be in a position to pull off an upset. 

I’m going to go over my thoughts on each series so far, starting with the most intriguing (and surprising) ones.  I’ll assign each series into one of three categories:  1) Most surprising (likely upsets), 2) Somewhat surprising, and 3) About what we expected.

Category 1:  MOST SURPRISING/UPSETS BREWING

Memphis/San Antonio, Atlanta/Orlando

Memphis 3, San Antonio 1

Randolph has helped Memphis take control
of this series

This is, without a doubt, the most shocking series so far. Not only is Memphis up 3-1, but they absolutely annihilated the Spurs in Game 4 to take a commanding series lead.  Manu Ginobili may still not be 100% healthy, and this may be the beginning of the end for this particular Spurs core.  I, for one, thought Tim Duncan would turn back the clock and pick apart the Grizzlies.  Instead, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol – who, by the way, is clearly playing better than his brother Pau currently – are having their way in the paint.  If San Antonio goes on to become the second first-seeded team to lose in the 1^st round (in a best-of-7 format), you better believe team GM R.C. Buford will do a complete overhaul of this team.  Here’s the question:  who can you trade?   The San Antonio community would be furious if they trade Duncan, who is a Spurs icon and still has a couple more years of decent basketball left in the tank, so I don’t think they would give away THE Spurs legend.  Tony Parker has trade value, but he's still young and the team could be built around him (since good point guards are hard to come by).  My bold offseason prediction: Ginobili’s gone after this year. 

On to Memphis:  the most unsung hero of the series so far is Tony Allen.  Here is a guy who won a title with the Celtics three years ago, and now he is providing his veteran championship experience to guide this young Memphis team.  He is truly leading by example and exhibiting the effort needed to pull off an upset of this magnitude – gathering nearly every “50/50” loose ball, making timely baskets, and just showing a lot of poise in general.  Even when he’s on the bench, he’s constantly cheering on his teammates regardless of the score of the games. 

In the playoffs, young teams have a tendency to feel the pressure against veteran teams like San Antonio.  But they have truly shocked the world and taken complete control of the series, and have already proven to the world that they are not a true 8^th seed.  I could see the Spurs winning at home in Game 5 and potentially make a comeback.  However, only 8 teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit, but a veteran team like the Spurs can do it.  Given how badly Memphis has outplayed the Spurs, I think this next series is the more likely to see such a comeback..

Atlanta 3, Orlando 1

Howard's played well, but he's getting
virtually no help from his teammates

This turn of events can very well derail my playoff bracket, as I picked Orlando to edge Chicago in Round 2.  There’s a couple things I overlooked:  for one, they acquired HUGE upgrade over Mike Bibby at the trade deadline with Kirk Hinrich, whose defensive abilities are vastly underrated; he’s one of the big reasons why both Jameer Nelson and Gilbert Arenas have been wildly inconsistent. 

Atlanta’s strategy of single coverage on Dwight Howard has proven to be very effective.  This strategy itself shows how much better of a head coach Larry Drew is than Mike Woodson, who was fired after the Magic absolutely destroyed the Hawks by a combined 100+ points in a 4-game sweep.  In any case, Drew has thrown every one of his bigs at Dwight in a one-on-one battle, with Jason Collins being the most effective Howard defender.  On offense, Jamal Crawford and Al Horford have fully exploited the Magic’s awful pick-and-roll defense so far. 

Here’s why I don’t think it’s over:  for one, Hedo Turkoglu and his teammates can’t possibly play this poorly forever.  Also, despite the total no-show from everyone but Dwight Howard, every game has been relatively close so far.  Despite shooting an atrocious 2-23 from the three-point line, Orlando somehow still had a chance to win (even without Jason Richardson, who was suspended for his role in a scuffle with Hawks backup C Zaza Pachulia.  Interestingly enough, Joe Johnson has been as mediocre as he historically has against Orlando in the playoffs – but sixth man Jamal Crawford has been on fire during this series – leading the team in scoring in 3 out of the 4 games so far.  The fact that Atlanta can’t play much better than they have been, combined with the chance that the Magic are due for a somewhat decent game from anyone not named Dwight, leads me to believe they can extend this series.  I will be attending Game 5 tomorrow night in Orlando, where I expect the Magic to turn things around and win.  From there, it’s just a matter of pulling off one road win in Atlanta before having a chance to edge the Hawks in Game 7.  I don’t think they are as outmatched as the Spurs are with Memphis. 

More likely than not, however, Atlanta should keep this up and oust the Magic in one of the next two games.  After years of difficulty vs. the Howard-led Magic, it appears that Larry Drew and the Hawks have finally concocted a good strategy to defeat them.  If Crawford stays hot and Turkoglu continues to struggle, the Hawks should pull off an upset.

Category 2:  MILDLY UNEXPECTED

Boston/NY, LA/New Orleans, OKC/Denver

Boston 4, New York 0

Anthony and the Knicks fell apart in Games 3 and 4

I predicted that the Celtics would have a relatively easy time with the Knicks.  What I didn’t expect was that the Celtics would be quite fortunate to win the first two games of the series, which both came down to the wire.  But after the first two fiercely competitive games in which Stoudemire and Billups suffered injuries, the Knicks basically just packed it in during Games 3 and 4.  A tremendous outburst from Carmelo Anthony (42 pts, 17 rebs) kept the Knicks within striking distance in Game 2, but he was unable to sustain his level of play during the games at MSG.  Having said that, it was really about Boston playing better after struggling in the first two games.  Rajon Rondo looks like he’s back to his early-season form, and Pierce and Allen have finally regained their touch from the perimeter. 

Those who are Knicks fans shouldn’t be too bummed about this.  For one, it’s nice to finally play in games that matter – and I’m sure most Knicks fans are thankful for that.  If the team can continue to build around Stoudemire and Anthony, there is hope for them.  However, they still need to address the defensive liability of those two.  I also have my doubts as to whether Mike D’Antoni’s system can go as far as winning a title.  But the team has definitely taken a turn for the better, and should be relevant again for the next few years.  You gotta give huge props to GM Donnie Walsh for turning this around after Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas did their best to destroy the franchise.  Before Walsh took over, I thought this team was doomed for decades of futility.

With the way the Celtics closed out the series, I can’t wait for the Boston-Miami 2^nd Round matchup; that will be by far the most intriguing series in the next round.  

Los Angeles 2, New Orleans 2

 The only reason why I didn’t put this in Category 1 is that I think this Laker team is coasting in this series.  I don’t mean to take anything away from the Hornets, who have been brilliant – especially Chris Paul.  After guys like Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams have emerged as the NBA’s best point guards this season, Paul kind of got overshadowed.  After completely torching the Lakers in two games so far, including a dominant triple-double performance in Game 4, he has immediately put himself back in the running as the league’s best floor general.

Nobody on LA has been able to contain CP3 this series

Obviously, Chris Paul is the biggest reason for the Hornets’ victories against the defending champs.  But I have to give credit to at least one of his teammates – Carl Landry.  Many Hornets fans criticized the midseason trade of Marcus Thornton to Sacramento in exchange for Carl Landry, given Thornton’s frequent scoring outbursts as a member of the Kings thereafter.  But in this series, Landry has fully demonstrated his value facing the league’s best frontcourt tandem of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.  What he lacks in size when matched up with them, he makes up for with pure defensive effort.  He has filled the void for the injured David West splendidly, and he should be getting more credit for the Hornets relative success (and Gasol’s struggles) thus far. 

As for the Lakers, their effort has been erratic.  Pau Gasol has been inconsistent, perhaps only partly due to Landry’s defense.  With Kobe ailing with a sprained ankle (an injury I’m sure he will play through), the Hornets are two more superhuman CP3 performances away from pulling off a stunning upset.  Sixth man of the Year winner Lamar Odom had an awful Game 4, along with the rest of LA’s bench.  Still, I think the Lakers will wake up and dominate Game 5 at home, perhaps with a better sense of urgency to close out this series.  I expect Phil Jackson to come up with ways to somewhat contain CP3 (or at least his teammates), and to ready his team to face the winner of Dallas and Portland.

Oklahoma City 3, Denver 1

While most did expect the Thunder to eventually figure out this scrappy Denver team and advance, nobody anticipated such a lopsided outcome.  It even took a career playoff high 41 points from Kevin Durant to edge Denver in Game 1.  Since then, however, it’s been basically all OKC.  Denver managed to avoid a sweep by winning Game 4 at home, but it appears that they’re on the verge of a summer vacation. 

My only theory for the series going by quicker than expected is that Denver’s lack of star power has finally caught up to them.  Their solid play since the Carmelo Anthony trade has been well-documented, but the playoffs are all about having stars that can get the job done in the heat of a playoff series.  With so much attention on Westbrook and Durant, opportunities arise for Serge Ibaka (who had a monster Game 3 performance – 22 pts/16 rebs) and the rest of the team.  Since Denver doesn’t have any such players that command double teams, it puts a lot of pressure on George Karl and the Nuggets to create scoring opportunities.  Without a true go-to scorer, the Nuggets will always have trouble closing games – especially against a team like OKC with two budding superstars. 

  

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets appear to be outmatched by the Thunder's talented team

With the Spurs fading, the Thunder appear to be a lock to go to the Western Conference Finals.  However, note that they lost 3 of 4 games against Memphis in the regular season.  I will reassess that matchup if Memphis goes on to beat the Spurs, but just note that by no means are the Thunder guaranteed to roll over the Grizzlies. 

Category 3:  JUST AS EXPECTED

Chicago/Indiana, Miami/Philadelphia, Dallas/Portland

Chicago 3, Indiana 1

D-Rose has been stellar as expected, but the Pacers
haven't rolled over by any means

As expected, Derrick Rose is having his way with the Pacers – averaging .  What we didn’t expect is how resilient of a team Indiana is.  Much like Denver, they have a deep and talented roster despite no true superstar.  Danny Granger is their best player, but no superstar (remember that he got benched in favor of the likes of Rudy Gay and Andre Iguodala during the World Championships last summer).  But Granger, Darren Collison, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, and Tyler Hansbrough are all holding their own against Chicago, minus allowing Rose to dominate the series.  If not for the furious rally in Game 1 and Rose’s crafty game-winner in Game 3, we could be looking at a potential 6 or 7 game series.  Guess the East is not nearly as weak at the bottom as everyone thought.

What’s particularly disturbing for the Bulls is the relatively poor play of Carlos Boozer.  Here’s a guy who has struggled against the elite power forwards of the NBA (e.g. Duncan, Gasol), and in this series he’s having trouble keeping up with Pacers F Tyler Hansbrough.  In Game 1, Hansbrough just had a field day against Boozer – going for 22 points on a barrage of jump shots.  Boozer’s a total defensive liability, which is why I thought even Orlando’s frontcourt would give him problems.  If things go the way they have been, he will be going up against Al Horford – another guy who can make perimeter jump shots and also beat other bigs off the dribble.  I would expect him to struggle then, as well, if Hansbrough is giving him problems.  Nevertheless, Chicago moves on and can probably exhale soon knowing they won’t go up against Dwight Howard. 

Miami 3, Philadelphia 1

Had Miami not inexplicably reverted back to going to LeBron James as their closer, this would have been an easy sweep.  I’m not sure if head coach Erik Spoelstra is trying to give LeBron some confidence by entrusting him with the ball during crunch time, but it’s safe to say that he, for whatever reason, never comes through in those situations.  When it comes to FG% of potential game-winning or game-tying baskets, Miami is dead last in the league.  Allow me to be even more redundant than I have been about this very subject:  LeBron HAS to be held accountable for Miami to hold such a miserable stat like that. We KNOW D-Wade is their best clutch player, so they shouldn’t divert from having him be the closer.

Miami's Big 3 are all having their way vs. Philly

Although Philadelphia has played well, they are clearly inferior in terms of talent.  Doug Collins, a Coach of the Year candidate, has turned this Sixer team around and turned them into a playoff team.  More importantly, last year’s 2^nd overall pick, Evan Turner, has finally been showing signs that he can play.  That, more than anything, has to be a relief for Sixers fans regardless of what happens in this series.  There’s about a 0.1% chance that they can upset Miami on Wednesday, but things are looking up for this squad. 

Dallas 3, Portland 2

This could be one of the very few chances Brandon Roy
will have left to be playing at this level

A very entertaining series, which was widely expected to be as such.  Of course, Dallas's Game 4 collapse reminded everyone of their repeated practice of showing 0 killer instinct when it comes to closing out opponents.  I was originally thinking that this particular team would not show those same qualities as the previous disappointing Mavs teams, but it appears that I’m wrong.  They may still close out this series, but NOBODY is scared of them.  Ask anybody who’s won a championship – they would verify this:  in the playoffs, you need to have a certain swagger or intimidation factor if you want to win.  The Celtics have that.  The Lakers have that.  The Heat have it.  Dallas?  Nobody was or is afraid of them.  Portland has further exposed their mental fragility, which will hurt them in the next series against LA. 

For Portland, it was awesome to see Brandon Roy have a great game.  Fresh off his complaints about not getting much playing time in the first three games, he responded with a fantastic performance and was the main driver behind Portland’s 23-point comeback win.  However, these kind of performances probably won’t be too consistent Without any MCLs in either knee, he will struggle with injuries throughout the rest of his career, unfortunately.  But if he’s able to play at a high level in spurts, that’s as much as the Blazers could hope for.  Against Dallas, they have a chance to make one last push and potentially take the next two games to win the series.  The Mavs are clearly the more talented team at the moment, but they will always be vulnerable without a killer instinct against a resilient team like the Blazers.  For now, I’ll stick with my original pick of Dallas in 7.