Changing of the Guards

So in case you haven’t noticed, I haven’t been writing a whole lot lately; I’ve been gone for 2 weeks on travel for work and unfortunately have not had any free time for blogging lately.  In that time, much has gone on that has happened relatively quickly, so we need to take a quick look at what happened and what we can expect through the remainder of the playoffs.

During my 2-week trip, I visited the Arlington National Cemetery in Washington DC.  One of the coolest things I got to see there is the changing of the guards at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.  At this location, a permanent guard from the 3rd US Infantry Regiment is mounted at all times - and there is a short ceremony of switching guards periodically depending on the time of day.  Beyond this literal meaning, the "changing of the guards" expression has become a metaphor for transferring duties of one person on to another.  In the case of the NBA, the metaphor refers to a former powerhouse team making way for another up-and-comer to take the reigns.  

To sum it up, this year’s playoffs have signified a changing of the guards.  Boston, LA, and San Antonio – three of the NBA’s dominant teams – are all out.  We have to get used to a conference final without Duncan, Kobe, and Pierce/KG/Allen.  The new up-and-comers – OKC, Chicago, and Miami – are in a position to take the reigns as the NBA’s next generation of elite teams.   

Let’s digest what happened to the Lakers and Celtics, and take a look at what we can expect in the Conference Finals. 

Dallas def LA Lakers, 4-0

Despite my previous notion that Dallas is tailor-made to beat LA, I went against my gut feeling and picked against them because, well, they’re Dallas.  But the Mavs shocked the world and completely picked apart the 2-time defending champs, exploiting LA’s greatest weaknesses:  pick-and-roll defense and inferior bench players. 

The Lakers never had to deal with Dirk in any 7-game
series before getting swept in this one

The scapegoat of this series has been Pau Gasol.  Let’s be clear, though:  the Dirk-led Mavs and Kobe-led Lakers have NEVER met in the playoffs.  Ever consider that the Mavs are just better?  I mean, Kobe and Andrew Bynum both had a pretty good series.  Beyond Gasol’s underwhelming performance, I think this was just a matter of the Lakers getting outplayed by Dallas more than anything else.  As I mentioned before, Dirk has had decent success against Pau in their head-to-head matchups over the years, dating back to Pau’s days in Memphis.  During all their successful playoff runs, the Lakers never had to face a guy like Dirk – someone who is devastating in any pick-and-roll situation due to his impeccable shooting and improving driving ability.  On top of Dirk’s great play, he had plenty of help from the Mavs bench.  Jason Terry absolutely torched LA, tying an NBA Playoff record with 9 three-pointers. 

This series also shows how worn out the Lakers are after 3 straight trips to the Finals.  After getting lit up by Chris Paul, Derek Fisher had a relatively favorable matchup against an older Jason Kidd.  But he has shown that it’s not just the younger and quicker point guards that give him fits; he just flat out has lost his ability to stay in front of anyone.  So, when JJ Barea came in the game, Fisher had no chance whatsoever.  Hell, Phil Jackson had to settle for subbing Shannon Brown in for Fisher to guard him.  While Kobe did OK scoring-wise in the series, most of his points came from contested jump shots (if memory serves, he only made ONE layup during the entire series). 

In the complete blowout that occurred in Game 4, the Lakers completely surrendered in what was probably Phil Jackson’s last game with the Lakers.  I don’t think he’s done coaching altogether; Mavs coach Rick Carlisle put it best, saying "My belief is that he’ll retire for a while," Carlisle said, "but I don’t know how long you can go to Montana and meditate and smoke peyote or whatever he does there. I don’t know. He’s going to get bored. And I mean that in an endearing way.”  You’ve seen coaching legends like Larry Brown and Lennie Wilkens come back from retirement again and again out of boredom.  Coaching is an extremely demanding job with high expectations, and he is among only 4 coaches with guaranteed long-term job security (the other 3 being Greg Popovich, Doc Rivers, and Jerry Sloan before he suddenly quit).  Generally, it’s tough for any successful and driven person to go from such a demanding and stimulating job to doing nothing.  Then again, what’s his motivation?  He needs a ring for his other big toe?

This series has the potential to go
the distance, and get testy along the way

Back to Dallas:  if they have indeed shed their label as a mentally fragile squad, they have the talent to finally avenge their 2006 collapse.  Charles Barkley seems to think that OKC is a better matchup for Dallas than Memphis would have been, but I beg to differ:  Dallas will have major, major problems guarding the two-headed monster of Durant and Westbrook.  Against LA, they’ve already proven that they could contain guys that can dominate the paint.  If they fared well against Bynum and Gasol, they would have been fine against Zach Randolph and the other Gasol.  But I don’t think they will have an answer for Westbrook and Durant, who will give Dallas fits. 

On the other hand, Dallas has some matchup advantages as well.  Serge Ibaka will have a harder time being matched up against Dirk than he did vs. Z-Bo and Kenyon Martin in their previous series.  He won’t be able to help his teammates in the paint, either, on penetrating perimeter players like Kidd and Barea.  OKC is not as deep as Dallas, either.  As long as Chandler continues to be an effective defensive anchor, I think Dallas will edge OKC in 7.   

Miami def Boston, 4-1

What many thought would be a clash of the titans-type matchup turned out to be a shorter series than expected.  Miami controlled the series from the get-go, with Miami’s Big 3 dominating the Celtics in every aspect.  They also got some unexpected help from James Jones and Joel Anthony; when the two of them were in the lineup, Boston seemed to struggle the most. The 5-man lineup of Wade-James-Jones-Bosh-Anthony has played a total of 3 minutes prior to Game 5, but I get the feeling we’ll see that more against Chicago (if that lineup proves effective). 

Considering how short this series ended up being, you can't help but wonder where Boston would be had they not traded Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder.  When the starting five of Rondo-Allen-Pierce-KG-Perk were all healthy, they NEVER lost a playoff series.  Danny Ainge will have some explaining to do, though it's not his fault that he got virtually nothing from the O'Neals.  Shaq and Jermaine have shown flashes, but not surprisingly, could never stay healthy enough to make steady contributions.  Still, this is by no means the demise of the Celtics.  With the core still intact and Doc committing to a 5-year extension, they should be able to re-tool their roster and be contenders again next year.  

There was some controversy with the way Miami celebrated after their win.  Personally, I didn’t have a problem with it for two reasons:  1) it’s really, really hard to put away a team like Boston the way they did, and 2) LeBron was clutch when it mattered, for once.  Let’s look at the latter reason.  Try to look at this from LeBron’s perspective:  here’s a guy who has been much-maligned all season long by everyone (myself included) for the way he left Cleveland, and his apparent inability to make plays down the stretch.  In this game, he put away a tough Boston team by scoring the game’s last 10 points.  When he was screaming to the Miami crowd and crying at the end of the game, that was his way to finally let out his relief considering all the hatred that came his way.

Was LeBron's emotional reaction to his breakthrough win a little over-the-top?
Maybe.  But it was understandable.

While I didn’t think there was anything wrong with the celebration, I do think it caused them to have an emotional letdown in their Game 1 loss against Chicago.  Chicago is by far Miami’s toughest matchup, as they are the NBA’s best defensive team and are best equipped to handle the two-man wrecking crew of Wade and Bron.  For the record, I still think Miami will win in six games.  Once they realize they are not even close to their goal of winning a title yet, they will re-focus on the task at hand.  Still, this will be an electrifying series that may very well go the distance. 

As the Conference Finals just began on Sunday, the changing-of-the-guards process happened quicker than we expected.  Now, we can just sit back and enjoy the next generation of great NBA teams going at it.