The Dwight Predicament

As the Orlando Magic’s losing culture is growing stronger by the day, everyone league-wide is wondering the same thing:  is it time to trade the franchise player?  This question is consuming the entirety of Orlando Magic GM Otis Smith’s thoughts, as the NBA community is awaiting his next move in the Dwight Howard trade rumor saga.  A situation that’s gone from bad to worse, this is a team that needs answers.  And fast.

What is going on with the Magic?  Are the trade rumors hurting the team that much?

Things have worsened exponentially over the last week or so.  It started last week with a humiliating blow-out loss to a depleted Boston Celtic team without Rajon Rondo or Ray Allen, and managed to score only 56 points.  Then a few days later, they completely melted down and blew a 27-point 1st half lead against the very same depleted Celtic team.  In case anyone wondered if this would carry over against one of the worst teams of the league, New Orleans routed them 93-67 on Friday.  Sunday night, they got blown out at home by Indiana by 21.  And in their attempt to reverse their disappearing act the next night, they came up short against Philly.

All Dwight can think about is when - not if - he's leaving Central Florida

All teams go through dry spells.  But given the magnitude of defeats and circumstances surrounding the team, it’s hard not to attribute these struggles to Howard’s swirling trade rumors.  After the aforementioned blowout loss to the Hornets, Howard bashed his teammates and their lack of effort.  He’s been known to call out his teammates to the press before, but this time it’s become evident that his peers have given up on him.  He's also publicly criticized head coach Stan Van Gundy's abrasive coaching style.  That’s why, as a superstar, asking for a trade puts you in a TERRIBLE spot.  An irreversible chain of events occurs and the team starts to self-destruct.  First, your teammates and coaching staff begin to question your commitment and loyalty.  Once that happens, you are no longer in a position to call out your team in hopes for a positive result.  In their eyes, they’re thinking, ‘what’s the point of giving your all for a guy who wants to leave anyway?’ 

We’ve seen precedence before of a lame duck superstar in a contract year.  Just to avoid bringing up painful memories for Magic fans of losing Shaq (and better yet, to pick a more recent example), Orlando’s situation is mirroring that of the Denver Nuggets involving Carmelo Anthony last season; Melo demanded a trade at the beginning of the 2010-11 season and, after months of speculation and indecision on the part of Nuggets management, he finagled his way to New York.  

Much like Dwight today, Melo had to address
trade rumors on a daily basis last season

Let’s compare the similarities between this year’s Magic and last year’s Nuggets.  While Melo was still a Nugget during the first half of the season, the team chemistry was horrific.  Yes the team was still winning some games, but deep down, his teammates knew he wanted to leave.  They knew his heart wasn’t in it.  They knew Melo was playing only to pad his stats and sell himself to the Knicks.  I’ve never seen a player so emotionally detached from a team – until now with Dwight.  Much like Melo last season, Dwight’s body language has been visibly terrible since the start of training camp.  Even though he’s still putting up decent numbers, you can tell his heart is not in the game.  And you can tell his teammates have quit on him.

But why is Dwight so hell bent on leaving Orlando? They really aren’t that bad – they’re only 3 years removed from an NBA Finals appearance…

From a pure basketball standpoint (turmoil aside), the Magic
 aren't too many pieces away from returning to the Finals

I honestly don’t know, and I don’t think anybody really does.  Despite being only 3 seasons removed from an Eastern Conference title, Howard feels change of scenery is needed.  Like many marquee free agents before him, Dwight Howard is looking for greener pastures – but his motive is unclear.  He says he wants a better chance to win a championship, but it makes you wonder when he makes outrageous David Kahn-like suggestions – such as telling the front office to keep Gilbert Arenas.  Does he want to play with his buddies, be in a bigger market, or have a better supporting cast?  Based on his wish list of destinations, the answer to that is not very clear.

As of now, he has a short wish list of destinations:  New Jersey, LA (Clippers AND Lakers), Dallas, and now Chicago.  Just by simple reasoning, you can figure out why a trade hasn’t happened yet with any of these teams.  We know the Nets have NOTHING of value to trade for him – particularly with Brook Lopez’s broken foot.  The Clippers would have to give up Blake Griffin (who, btw, just mesmerized the league with his ridiculous dunk theother night) to get Dwight, which I don’t think they would be willing to do right now even if the trade itself makes sense.  Otis Smith has told the Lakers he will not settle for less than Pau Gasol AND Andrew Bynum (they’ve only offered Bynum).  Dallas and Chicago are already championship-caliber teams that will be hesitant to gut their rosters to get Dwight during such an abbreviated season.  Thus, trade talks have been at an impasse.

What’s next for the Magic?

That’s a tough question that only time will tell.  In any case, Magic fans better brace themselves for many seasons of mediocrity.  Even though the Nuggets went through the same situation last year and came out smelling like roses, the results for Orlando parting ways with their superstar will be completely different.  Right now, the Nuggets are now a MUCH better team than they ever would have been with Melo, and so everyone in Denver is glad to see him gone (and struggling in NY).  You can’t complain about the results of the trade as a Nugget fan – since the trade, the Knicks have gone 21-27 with Melo, while Denver improved remarkably without him – and is now sitting at 2^nd overall in standings of the loaded Western Conference.  In contrast with Orlando, it’s hard to envision a similar result when Dwight leaves.  Melo is more of a ball-stopper (which is KILLING his Knicks right now), while Dwight has more of a team anchor-like presence and is not the one dictating his team’s offense.  Since Melo’s departure, Denver improved tremendously on defense, while it’s hard to imagine Orlando replacing Dwight’s superior defensive presence.

The Denver Nuggets couldn't be better without Melo, but it's hard to see the same
success story panning out for the Magic without Howard

If you’re Otis Smith, here are your options:

1)      Trade Dwight ASAP in hopes of ending the current state of turmoil and take the best offer on the table.

2)      Call everyone’s bluff and wait until the trade deadline to solicit everyone’s BEST trade offer, or...

3)      Wait it out until free agency and see if you can keep him, or get the best possible sign-and-trade deal.

Option 3 should be ruled out at this point, as he’s made it clear he doesn’t want to stay.  So, unless he wants to lose Howard for nothing this summer, Otis Smith should just bite the bullet at some point this season and follow one of the first two options.

I’ll close this blog post with one thought, as I talked to my friend John about this recently:  why the hell is Orlando not a more appealing destination for free agents?  Brand spanking new arena, great weather, no state taxes – I’d really like to know why players aren’t biting at the bit to move to Central Florida.  Of all the superstars who have been wanting to move in the last few years – Chris Paul, Deron Williams, etc. – NONE have even entertained the idea of wearing a Magic uniform – even to play with the league’s best center.  Perhaps that's really why Howard is moving forward with a trade request?  Please comment with your theories on this, because I’m at a loss.

If you think that trade rumors don’t affect players and their teams that much, think again.