My 2012 NBA All-Star Reserves

The fan voting has ended and the 2012 starters for the NBA All-Star Game have been announced.  Now it’s time to ponder who should fill out the remaining rosters to play at the big game.  This is one of the weirder years to make such picks, with the shortened season being a huge factor.  With only a month of basketball to base our All-Star picks, players sitting out due to injury will have a huge disadvantage.  And without much of a training camp, most of the league has been sluggish over the first month of the season – resulting in a relatively poor quality of play overall so far.  So, a lot of my picks will have shaky logic behind them.  I realize this is hard to read, so click on the chart to pull up a better view.

What do I think of the fans’ selection of the starting lineup?

The fans did OK here for both teams, with the exception of voting Carmelo Anthony as the starting forward for the Eastern Conference.  With the Knicks struggling and currently out of the playoff picture, Anthony deserves some blame for the disappointing start.  There are many players over the years I can think of off the top of my head – e.g. Stephon Marbury, Steve Francis, Allen Iverson – who are considered top-tier players and perennial All-Stars, but whose teams get better after they leave.  Those are exactly the kind of players that can be considered overrated, or at least the players whose talents don’t translate to winning team basketball.  I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again:  Melo is no exception as one of these players, as evidenced by Denver’s success and New York’s woes. As I’ve said repeatedly, I believe both Melo and his teammate Amare Stoudemire are stars only by name, not by deed. They would be much better served as 3^rd or 4^th options on a team behind true stars that know how to facilitate their teams, where they can afford to be just scorers and not facilitators.

Chris Bosh has stepped it up during his second season
in a Heat uniform

So if not Melo, who should have been picked instead?  Easy:  Chris Bosh.  He has been on an absolute tear this season, setting out to prove that there really is a Big Three in Miami.  Dwyane Wade has battled injuries all year, but Miami has gone 8-1 in the games in his absence – in large part due to Bosh’s much-improved play.  The question of whether he can be an effective third wheel still remains, but there’s no question he’s worthy of a spot on the All-Star team.

The rest of the starters on both teams are spot on, although I would have been OK with Russell Westbrook getting the nod over Chris Paul as the starting guard out West.  Then again, CP3 has been filling up the stat sheets lately and has propelled his Clippers to 2^nd best in the West.  His latest string of games has been particularly impressive, helping his team handily defeat the Thunder at home, and getting tough road wins against Denver and Utah (no small feat).  They are an elite team, and their franchise fortune-turning play is well deserving of having two All-Star starters represent them.  

MY RESERVE PICKS

Key Omissions due to Injury:

Rajon Rondo (Boston), Luol Deng (Chicago),  Manu Ginobili (San Antonio)

Eastern Conference

We've seen plenty of J-Smoove highlights -
but somehow no All-Star appearances

Since Bosh should be starting, he should be a lock for a reserve spot.  The Hawks have been playing great basketball despite losing Al Horford for the season, and Joe Johnson and Josh Smith have both been the main reasons why.  Oddly enough, Smith has NEVER been selected as an All-Star, but I can’t see coaches snubbing him this year.  Even without Horford, I think the Hawks are good enough to give Miami or Chicago (depending on the seeding) a run for their money in the 2^nd round of this year’s playoffs. In any case, Johnson and Smith should both make the team.

As I do every year, I base my picks off of teams who are winning.  Since Philadelphia and Indiana have played winning basketball this year, they absolutely must have some All-Star representation.  Jrue Holiday has been the key to the 76ers’ great start; he has been orchestrating an offense responsible for getting SIX players averaging double figures in points, with Evan Turner (9.8) and Jodie Meeks (9.0) not far behind.  He and Andre Iguodala have been the primary playmakers for this team, averaging 9.7 assists between them.  I’m not sure if anyone had Philly winning the Atlantic Division this year, but they’re going to win it by a long shot.

The 76ers have become the league's most surprising team this season

A broken nose hasn't stopped Roy Hibbert from
becoming one of the league's elite bigs

For Indiana, Roy Hibbert has become a beast in the paint and has added another dimension to the Pacers’ offensive and defensive schemes.  He’s displayed his fair share of toughness as well, especially against the Lakers – where he broke his nose and played through it to help the Pacers to get a road win in LA.  

It’s funny seeing Danny Granger and Iguodala as my wild cards, because of how similar their situations have been in recent years.  Neither of their teams has been particularly good in years past, but the two of them have been steady leaders for their squads for a few years now.  Two of the most dynamic and athletic wing players in the league, they have had plenty of help this particular season from their respective supporting casts – and it has translated to their teams’ success.  

Western Conference

Aldridge is long overdue for an All-Star bid

After declaring Westbrook a shoe-in, this is where things get tough.  Kevin Love has arguably become the best power forward in the league (how many PF’s have ever averaged 25 points and 15 rebounds?), so you can’t exclude him.  Besides, Larry Bird has been craving for white superstars in the NBA - you gotta appease the Legend.  Anyway, let’s keep going:  LaMarcus Aldridge was the biggest snub last season, so I don’t think coaches will leave him off the team this time around.  Rudy Gay has filled in admirably for the Grizzlies after Zach Randolph went down, so he is deserving of a first-time All-Star bid as well.

Nene is one of Denver's
many solid pieces

So after rewarding players who are long overdue, let’s try to reward the teams that are winning – like the third-place Nuggets.  Denver is a team much like Philadelphia and Indiana – one without a true superstar, but full of very good players.  Still, you have to reward them with at least one All-Star.  I picked Nene, since there are not many other very good Centers in the West (or the league, for that matter).  As much of a bad rap as Dallas has gotten for their slow start, they are still sitting in 4^th place overall in the West.  For that reason, I just can’t get myself to deny Dirk an All-Star bid – even though he’s played well below his potential and has missed several games due to injury. 

This leaves one more spot, which should go to someone from either Utah or San Antonio.  Since Manu Ginobili, the Spurs’ leading scorer, has been hit with injuries all season, I can’t pick him.  Utah, though, has exceeded everyone’s expectations.  Their two bigs – Paul Millsap and Al Jefferson – have both been a load for opposing front courts.  So since I can’t decide which one of them should get the bid, I’ll say that they are both equally deserving.  I hate how shaky my logic has been for this, but there are going to be some players in the West that are bound to get snubbed.

Saturday 2/12/11 - Random thoughts at this point in the season

The biggest story in recent days:  Jazz legendary coach Jerry Sloan stepping down.  Karl Malone was at last night’s Utah-Phoenix game and had a few words about this.  In an NBA TV interview, he suggested the players’ commitment (or lack thereof) had something to do with Sloan’s sudden exit.  He implied that something bad must have happened to make Sloan, of all people, quit.  Some sources say Deron Williams is the culprit.  D-Will has defended himself, saying forcing someone of Sloan’s stature to step down is ridiculous.  Coaches and players do get into a lot of arguments, and the media tends to blow such incidents out of proportion most of the time.  But who really knows?  It may have been the first time Sloan’s players have turned on him in a long, long time.

o   Remember when I left D-Will off my All-Star reserves picks?  I said either Sloan or D-Will needed to get blamed for Utah underachieving this season.  It appears that something behind the scenes definitely went on.  But as they say, it’s a player’s league and coaches generally get the blame, no matter how renowned they may be.

o   David Thorpe was asked in a recent ESPN.com chat regarding whether he thought Deron Williams would remain in Utah when his contract expires after next season.  His response was plain and simple:  “No.”

-       The Spurs had their worst game of the season last night, losing to the 76ers for the 8^th time in their last 11 games between the two teams. 

o      I’m glad Elton Brand is playing well again.  People really wrote him off after a couple injury-plagued seasons.  You could say that karma bit him, after he infamously bailed on the Clippers to sign with Philly in the Summer of 2008 after reportedly promising the team to sign with them - particularly considering Baron Davis left the Golden State Warriors to join the team.  The Clippers seemed to get the last laugh, as they drafted sensation Blake Griffin and Brand ruptured his Achilles tendon his first season with the 76ers. 
o     I hope the Spurs don't end the season on a flat note.  They're at their best when they start their seasons slow and finish strong.  This season seems to be the opposite trend..

-      Orlando made one mind-blowing sloppy mistake after another last night, losing 99-93 to New Orleans at home. 

o   I joked with a friend of mine, who’s a huge Magic fan, about 2 months ago that Orlando would lose in the 1^st round this year.  Ever since I said that, it’s looking more and more like that’s not a laughing matter.  With the way they’re playing, they  may very well not even get homecourt advantage in the 1^st round of the playoffs.  

o   You gotta wonder if the blockbuster trade with Phoenix was a mistake.  I personally think shipping out Vince Carter was a great move, but it’s clear that losing Pietrus and Gortat  have really hurt Orlando.  Phoenix has been playing well of late with those two picking up the slack.  In the Utah-Phoenix game last night, did you notice Vince Carter sat on the bench during crunch time in favor of Pietrus?  Maybe Stan Van Gundy should have thought of that strategy.  Just sayin’.

-      The Lakers dominated the Knicks last night at the Garden 113-96.

o   This just in:  Amare has NO CLUE how to guard Pau Gasol.  None.  Remember the Phoenix-LA Western Conference Finals last year?  The Kobe-Gasol duo just absolutely shredded the Suns’ defense, thanks to Amare’s awful defensive tactics – always losing sight of Gasol and spoon-feeding him open lanes to the rim. 

-      LaMarcus Aldridge was a beast once again last night as Portland defeated Toronto 102-96.  After dropping 42 on the Bulls last Monday, Aldridge scored 37 and grabbed 10 boards against the Raptors. 

o   That’s the 3^rd time in 6 games he scored 35+ points.  Think he’s motivated by being left off the All-Star team? 

o   He’s making my reserve picks look really, really good. 

-       What is the deal with Rip Hamilton?  He rides the bench while the NJ-Detroit-Denver rumors surfaced during the ongoing Carmelo trade front saga.  When those talks died, he came back and played pretty well – 15 points and 3 assists in 20 minutes.  After that one game, he’s been sitting out with a groin injury.  Really?  Something shady is going on.  Hopefully he gets traded before the deadline.  

My All-Star Picks

As an avid NBA chat reader, I remember ESPN's David Thorpe in a chat of his own answering a question regarding the seemingly superior Phoenix Suns trainers - given their reputation for helping keep older and historically injury-prone players (e.g. current Grant Hill, Shaq from 08-09) freakishly healthy. He responded by saying something along the lines of this: "Trainers are not unlike NBA players; some are better than others. Just because Mugsy Bogues and Shaq are both in the same profession, doesn't mean they'll produce the same results."

David is right on. This same logic goes with any occupation. Every profession has elite, average, and below average personnel. But obviously everyone in the NBA meets the standards of the being an NBA player. Similarly, every team has physical trainers that meet the standards of being a trainer (whether they have degrees, had specialized training, etc.), but clearly some are more skilled than others. For whatever reason (ahem, location), the Suns happen to have an All-Star team of trainers.

That said, I think of NBA All-Stars as the Phoenix Suns trainers' version of NBA players. Like the Suns' trainers, All-Stars should meet that elite level and have something to show for it - just as Phoenix has the health of Grant Hill and Shaq to show for their reputation. As Charles Barkley says, every NBA player is good. But only a few have something to show for it, whether they are reversing a franchise's losing history or helping continue a winning tradition. The obvious means for measuring that, of course, is team success. To an extent, good players on bad teams get shafted with this logic. But coaches have a long-standing tradition of voting for players on winning teams.

Assuming the starters will be those who are currently leading vote-getters, here's what you get:

This particular All-Star lineup favors the winningest teams, especially in the East. The one exception on the list is none other than Blake Griffin, whose performance on the NBA's worst franchise CANNOT be ignored. He represents all the hope that's left in the Clippers franchise. With each passing day he seems to get better, and so does his team. Anyone who gives that much hope to the Clippers should automatically be an All-Star, regardless of their current record. I do think they will climb their way back up the standings, though. Whether they make the playoffs, I'm not sure. I don't see it happening, though I am rooting for them. Griffin NEEDS to be on national TV during the playoffs. Has to, at least to make the first round watchable.

I'm sure some of you are going to accuse me of being a Celtics fan (I'm not). But can you ignore what any of those 4 have done? Which one would you take off the All-Star team? Pierce has been a steady, consistent scorer and remains their go-to guy. KG, as we all know, is their irreplaceable anchor on D. Rondo started the season storming out of the gates, greatly boosting the C's to a terrific start and breaking team assist records left and right. And the guy who most consider to be the 4th best player on the team, Ray Allen, may be their most valuable player in clutch situations. The C's would not have won many of their close games this season without him.

The other eyebrow raiser I should address is choosing Lamarcus Aldridge. Portland deserves at least one All-Star every year they are devastated by injuries (seemingly every year, now), yet manage to have a winning record. L.A.'s numbers may not blow you out of the water (21 ppg, 8.8 rbg, 1.2 apg), but he commands double teams and is undeniably Portland's No. 1 guy while the Blazers stay afloat in the playoff race.

Notable Snubs:

West - Deron Williams, Steve Nash, Tony Parker, Luis Scola, Kevin Love, Monta Ellis

East - Al Horford, Andrew Bogut, Gerald Wallace

D-Will, Nash and Parker are perennial All-Star point guards, but can you really replace anybody on that list for them? The Spurs may deserve 3 All-Stars with their record, but it's harder for teams to have more than 2 All-Stars in the West. However, of all the snubs, one of these two is going to be the likely Yao Ming replacement in the starting lineup. My money is on Parker, given the Spurs' record. I know some of you will point out that Kevin Love should be on the team if Griffin makes it, but unfortunately there's not enough room for both of them. You gotta go with the guy that's reversing the Clippers' fortunes.

Between D-Will and Steve Nash, it seems unfair to cut either one of them in favor of Griffin or Aldridge.  Based on the way Utah's played of late, however, I'm not sure if anyone on that team deserves to make it. AK47's struggles have been a disturbing trend the past couple seasons, and Al Jefferson's arrival hasn't lived up to expectations.  Either Jerry Sloan or Deron Williams needs to be held accountable for AK47 and Jefferson's lack of production and involvement in the offense.  In the case of Griffin and Aldridge, their teams have no business making any noise in the regular season with a much weaker supporting cast (and with the Clippers, team reputation).  Utah kind of has to get punished, being a team that has high expectations.  I fully expect the coaches to vote D-Will in, just because of the numbers he's putting up (21.9 ppg, 9.4 apg).  But my selections are mostly based on team success versus expectations.

On a side note, is this the most polarized the league has been in years or what? So many teams having double-digit streaks, whether they're winning or losing. The East is very polarized, given that only 6 teams are above .500. The 7th and 8th seeds -- Charlotte and Indiana, respectively -- are currently 7 games below .500. 7!! The East is arguably more shallow this year than any other season. For every ridiculously good team, there's a ridiculously bad team. We might be witnessing the most lopsided NBA season to date. It's only going to get worse, as superstars on mediocre teams (e.g. CP3, Melo) will want to jump ship to a contender and team up with other great players. This spells trouble for a LOT of teams. With a probable lockout looming, contraction may become more of a reality than you think. Anyway, I'll talk more about this on another post as the season goes on.

The point is, there are not too many stars from winning teams to choose from in the East. I do think either Stephen Jackson or Gerald Wallace should be on the team, but only because there are not too many deserving players remaining in the conference.

Altogether, I think this is one of the more difficult All-Star selection processes there will ever be. Lots of great teams loaded with great players. There are many deserving guys that will get cut, but not ALL great trainers are able to work in Phoenix either, right?

Interested in seeing who all the NBA gurus out there think should be showcasing their skills in LA on February 20th!