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Friday, March 11, 2011

Winning Ain't Easy

On the early morning of Friday, March 4, 2011, NASA launched a Taurus XL rocket containing the Glory payload – a satellite designed to study the Earth’s climate.  Minutes into the launch, the Taurus vehicle’s fairing – a protective shroud that protects the satellite through the thick of the Earth’s atmosphere before entering space – failed to separate.  This led to mission failure, as satellites cannot reach its desired orbit with that extra weight.  No matter how unlikely these mishaps are, mission failures are bound to happen.  However, two of the other eight previous Taurus flights also failed.  What makes this recent failure that much more disappointing and head-scratching is that the previous Taurus rocket launch carrying the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) satellite – one Taurus mission prior to Glory – failed in the same manner as the Glory mission.  So, the "isolated incident" rationale is not to be used as an excuse.

NASA’s Launch Services Program has launched several successful missions and injected many satellites into orbit, thus making mission success often taken for granted.  A member of NASA, you’re put in a tough position when your rocket fails to get a satellite to space successfully; when your launch vehicle fails, you let a lot of customers down:  first, the satellite company hoping to get into space via your rocket.  The other equally important customer (if not more important) that becomes disappointed is the public, whose tax money contributes to these critical missions.  I, as a first-hand witness, can say that NASA did everything that was feasibly possible, anchored by the discretion of some of the smartest people in the world, to mitigate this failure scenario for the past two years.  Somehow, it happened again.  Although all angles were deemed covered, something slipped through the cracks.  Point is, there’s so many variables that it’s hard to fault anything in particular for these disappointments, and all you can do is try not to get discouraged, learn from your mistakes, and go back to the drawing board.

This harsh lesson translates to many things, including the NBA.  As much as you hear about teams like the Lakers and Spurs, who historically have made winning look so easy, there are so many other teams out there that show how hard it is to have postseason success.  In reality, there have been a ton of quality teams who have not quite been able to get over the hump – either running out of gas or coming up empty on luck.  Just as NASA was unable to prevent another mishap from happening, many NBA teams have come up short in their bid for an NBA championship – regardless of all the lessons learned, re-tooling, and development of their team.  

Metaphorically speaking, there are a handful of great teams out there whose fortunes match that of the Taurus rocket.  As a result, it’s hard for any fan (i.e. customer) to trust a team who always comes up short, just as it will be for any satellite customer (or tax payer) to trust putting their multi-million dollar satellite onto a Taurus.  While it may be shortsighted and unfair to pin such a negative connotation on teams and the Taurus program that way, sometimes that’s just the way it is. 

Take some NBA teams for example.  In the last decade (2000-09), only 5 teams won the NBA title:  the Lakers, Spurs, Pistons, Heat, and Celtics.  In the previous decade (1990-99), there were only 4 title teams (Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs).  You would think the NBA hasn’t been competitive at all just by those stats.  The reality is that some great teams just flat out come up short.  Let’s look at some of these teams that, no matter how much effort is put into building a championship caliber squad, somehow lose control of their destiny and experience routine failure:

Orlando Magic
If Shaq and Penny got along, Orlando may
have had more success
Most regular seasons for the Magic have been very promising – both in the Shaq (92-96) and Dwight (04 to present) eras.  But in each of those seasons in which they were poised to win it all, a variety of issues kept them from bringing a championship to Orlando.  When Shaq was in town, he and Penny Hardaway formed the best point guard-center tandem in the league.  Regrettably, they were not the best friends in the world.  The two of them were constantly feuding, often finding themselves competing for the spotlight both on and off the court.  In 96, Shaq fled to sign a $120 million contract with the Lakers.  In 99, Penny’s career began to fade due to injuries (including the notorious career-destroying microfracture knee surgery) and he was traded to Phoenix.  Since then, he continued to battle injuries for the remainder of his once-promising career.

Then came the Tracy McGrady era.  Now, many see him as a fragile guy who’s completely jumped the shark.  But ten years ago, he was an unbelievable all-around talent who was considered by some to be better than Kobe Bryant.  But in this era, it wasn’t just T-Mac that gave Orlando false hope.  As every Orlando fan hates to remember, Grant Hill signed a seven-year, $93 contract with the Magic in 2000 – only to suffer one devastating ankle injury after another and play a mere 47 games in his first four seasons with the team.  After these injuries and the Magic’s annual playoff failures, Otis Smith gave up on the Hill-McGrady experiment, traded T-Mac to Houston in 2004 and sent Hill to Phoenix in 2007.  T-Mac ended up having a few more good seasons in Houston (remember the ridiculous 13 points in 33 seconds in an improbable comeback win vs. San Antonio?), but he eventually lost most of his explosiveness due to nagging injuries.  That makes 4 immensely talented players the Magic lost:  Shaq, Penny, T-Mac, and Grant Hill – the latter 3 whose careers were derailed by injury.  If Dwight Howard ends up leaving Orlando in 2012, the Magic could be the only team I can think of to lose so many superstar players to free agency and/or injury. 
The T-Mac and Hill experiment failed miserably

T-Mac and Hill were soon forgotten when Dwight Howard and company revitalized the Magic and made them contenders once again.  When Hedo Turkoglu came into his own (and won Most Improved Player in 2008 along the way), Orlando was a force to be reckoned with.  As I just wrote the other day, they still have a chance to get their act together and surprise a lot of people in the East.  They’ll always miss Mikael Pietrus and Marcin Gortat, but as long as Otis Smith remains willing enough to spend money and make trades, their future should hold some more Finals appearances.  That is, if they can keep Dwight..

Indiana Pacers
As a future Hall-of-Famer and undisputed face of the franchise, Reggie Miller came so close to winning the title.  But, two main things came in his way:  Michael Jordan (who was actually responsible for MANY teams in the 90s ending up never winning a title) and Ron Artest.  Jordan’s Bulls ousted the Pacers every year in the late 90s, including an epic 7-game series in the 1998 Eastern Conference Finals (where Miller forced a game 7 by hitting a clutch 3 to win Game 6).  In 2000, Miller finally made an NBA Finals appearance, only to be overwhelmed by a much more talented Lakers squad.  Suddenly in 2004, the Pacers found themselves to be in the discussion as elite contenders when Jermaine O’Neal developed into an elite post player and Ron Artest came on board and emerged as one of the game’s best two-way players (i.e. both offensive and defensive prowess).  In an unfortunate turn of events, things got ugly in a November game vs. the Pistons at the Palace of Auburn Hills.  After Artest committed a hard foul in the waning moments of the game, Ben Wallace retaliated (as the Pacers were handily winning that game already and took offense to Artest’s timing for the hard foul).  Artest actually kept his calm at the time and didn’t retaliate against Wallace (though not many would).  That is, he was calm until an idiot fan threw a beer at Artest.  The rest was history – Artest was suspended for the rest of the year, and then Miller retired at the conclusion of that season.

The Artest melee derailed the Pacers season - and perhaps their franchise

Unfortunately for the Pacers, the infamous brawl completely derailed the franchise.  In fact, alcohol would be forever banned from ALL NBA arenas in the 4th quarter, essentially spoiling the fun for all NBA fans in going to games.  Anyway, Indiana has not recovered since.  Pacers GM Larry Bird will keep trying to build a roster with good character.  Sadly, in trying to “clean up” the image of the team, Bird got rid of talent as much as he got rid of questionable characters.  At one point, there were many controversial claims being thrown around that the team was way too “white.”  At one point during the 2008-09 season, it was hard to dismiss the claim; they had Travis Diener, Mike Dunleavy, Tyler Hansbrough, Jeff Foster, Josh McRoberts, Rasho Nesterovic, and Troy Murphy all on the roster.

Now, the Pacers are but a mediocre team who are better off in a rebuilding phase.  Bird has tried building the team around Danny Granger, but he is slowly coming to the realization that Granger is just a solid player (i.e. not a superstar) and thus not a centerpiece he can build a team around.  He didn’t even get much playing time last summer on Team USA in the World Championships over the likes of Andre Iguodala and Rudy Gay.  Hopefully, Bird can either get a good draft pick or trade Granger for some future pieces.  As a small market team, it will be hard to land any big-time free agents – especially on a rebuilding team.  That said, only time will tell if the Pacers will ever be competitive in the near future. 

Utah Jazz
This is yet another team that fell victim to the Jordan era, losing to the Bulls in back-to-back NBA Finals in 97 and 98.  Karl Malone and John Stockton became a household-named pair and brought almost 2 decades of great basketball to Utah.  If Jordan didn’t come back from retirement (the first time), Utah would have had two championships.  They could never capitalize after Jordan retired in 98, as the Spurs and Lakers began to dominate the West. 

The post-Malone-and-Stockton phase came to an end, but Sloan was able to keep the Jazz relevant in the West.  F Andrei Kirilenko had his best years following the retirement of the dynamic duo, and the team drafted Deron Williams in 04.  They were also able to acquire Carlos Boozer, who betrayed Cleveland in a much, much worse manner than LeBron did. He was released from Cleveland because the (literally) blind Cavs owner was generous enough to rid him of his low-paying rookie contract (as he was a 2nd round pick) so that he could immediately sign him to a more lucrative one.  Then, Boozer completely backstabbed him and the city of Cleveland to take an even bigger contract with Utah.  Nobody deserved to be hated this much by an entire city more than Boozer.  That is, until LeBron left town in the manner he did. Anyway, even with a solid team, Utah fell short in several playoff series – especially against the Lakers.  That’s a team that Utah could not manage to beat, getting swept by LA in two straight years. 

18 seasons of great basketball together
- but no titles to show for it
This year, the team was in turmoil.  Boozer, the least trustworthy guy in the world to re-sign with a team, bailed to join Chicago last offseason.  Despite acquiring Al Jefferson from Minnesota, the team struggled.  When the team began to plummet in the standings, Jerry Sloan retired.  Deron Williams was traded to the Nets, as he fell out of favor with management and apparently was to blame for Sloan’s sudden departure.  In the end, it was a wise move.  The West will eventually lose Tim Duncan and Kobe Bryant to retirement, and Utah has created some cap space and acquired some great pieces – including promising F Derrick Favors and some draft picks.  They are probably in for a few rough seasons to come, but they do have assets for the future.  Not too reassuring, I know, but that’s more promising than the outlook of some of the other teams on this list.

Portland Trailblazers
We’ve all become aware of the injury curse that these poor Blazers have faced the last few seasons.  Devastating injuries to seemingly every key player on the roster, including superstar Brandon Roy and the #1 overall pick of the 2007 draft – Greg Oden, have hindered their progress as a team. 

If Sheed and the Blazers weren't so volatile,
the franchise would be in much better shape
In the late 90s and early 2000s, when the team had an absolutely filthy-loaded roster (Scottie Pippen, Rasheed Wallace, Shawn Kemp, Steve Smith, Brian Grant, Jermaine O’Neal, Arvydas Sabonis, Detlef Schrempf, Bonzi Wells, Damon Stoudamire, Greg Anthony), their shortcomings perplexed the minds of many in the league.  The most painful memory came in the 2000 Western Conference Finals:  Portland had a 14 point lead in the 4th quarter in Game 7 vs. the Lakers.  To this day, I have never seen such an epic collapse with such high stakes and by such a talented team – except maybe by Dallas in 2006 (see below).  The difference between this collapse and that of Dallas’ is that Portland let Brian freakin’ Shaw tear them apart.  Dallas was a victim of Dwyane Wade’s coming out party (and referees, but so were the Blazers).  The team, as constituted, never quite recovered from that crushing loss.  With guys like Wallace and Stoudamire getting busted for smoking weed, the famous “Portland Jail-Blazers” label was put on the team.  Subsequently, much like Larry Bird did with the Pacers, GM Paul Allen commenced a fire sale of the team and replaced all the knuckleheads with high character guys.

Is there hope for this team in the future?  It’s looking bleak, but I really hope I’m wrong.  This year, the Gerald Wallace trade should really give them a boost.  LaMarcus Aldridge, the Western Conference Player of the Month for February (and huge admission of error by the NBA for not naming him an All-Star), has become a beast.  With a tandem of Miller and Roy anchored by Aldridge, Wallace, and Camby in the frontcourt, this team should be very solid and can scare some of the top teams in the playoff bracket.  Hopefully in the long term, Oden can come back and live up to some of the hype he got when he was drafted four years ago.  With GM Paul Allen and coach Nate McMillan running the show, these guys can be contenders for years to come – if only they can shake the injury bug. 

Sacramento Kings
This team was closest to contending with Chris Webber in his prime from 2000-03.  C-Webb, when healthy, was one of the best power forwards in the league.  He had perhaps the best court vision of any 4-man in that era.  In 2002, C-Webb led a very stacked Kings team – with Mike Bibby, Doug Christie, Vlade Divac, Hedo Turkoglu and Peja Stojakovic – to a 3-2 series lead in the Western Conference Finals over the Lakers.  Then came the controversial Game 6 in Los Angeles, where the refs basically gave the game to the Lakers.  The Lakers attempted 40 free throws to the King’s 20, including a 27-9 advantage in attempts from the line in the 4th quarter.  You read that right – 27 free throws in the 4th quarter alone!  To this day, Kings fans are in complete disbelief that the team lost that series. 

If Horry missed this shot, the Kings may very well have won a title or two

In the 2003 playoffs, Webber suffered a career-threatening knee injury in the middle of their series vs. Dallas that effectively killed the prime of his career.  Because of this tragic timeline, everyone will always wonder what could have been if the Kings won the 2002 series.  Their biggest enemy, in most eyes, were the refs of that Game 6.  It also didn’t help that in Game 4, when Sacramento led the series 2-1, lost the game on a buzzer-beating three by Robert Horry.  The worst part of that from a Kings fan’s standpoint is the fact that Horry even got the ball at that particular moment in the game.  It was one of the luckiest and fate-altering breaks I’ve seen to this day in a game.

Now, the Kings are obviously in a rebuilding mode.  I got a chance to watch this particular Kings team in person on Wednesday night vs. Orlando (in Sacramento), where rookie DeMarcus Cousins showed what kind of player he can be by out-beasting Dwight Howard.  Along with Cousins, I expect to see a young and talented team struggle to figure out how to win games.  Tyreke Evans, last year’s rookie of the year, has battled plantar fasciitis this season (seemingly every year, a star player seems to have a down year because of it – including Joakim Noah, Rasheed Wallace, Tim Duncan, etc.).  With that injury’s track record, Kings fans should not be worried about Evans’ relatively disappointing season.   What they should worry Cousins, who many have called the most immature rookie of all time.  If he doesn’t learn how to control his emotions, he could very well waste his enormous talent. 

There is hope from a basketball standpoint for the Kings.  Unfortunately, there is the non-basketball side of things that is going to devastate Sacramento fans:  the team will probably move to Anaheim soon.  If that happens (and I hope it doesn’t), the Pacific Northwest will have lost 2 great franchises (the Seattle Sonics being the first) within a few years.  The one thing worse than having a losing team like the Cavaliers is not having a team at all, and it’s going to be sad to see the die-hard fans of Sacramento lose their team too.  

Phoenix Suns
When Barkley used to bash D’Antoni’s apparent inability to get his team to play defense, D’Antoni took a shot right back at Charles, saying Barkley choked away a championship.  This, of course, referenced the 1993 NBA Finals, most notably when Phoenix blew a late lead against Jordan’s Bulls in Game 6 on a game-winning three by John Paxson.  Phoenix never got back to the Finals, and Barkley was traded to Houston for some more disappointing seasons.  Speaking of Barkley – in the future, I’ll write an equivalent post on best players to never win a title.  He would definitely be up there on the list.

When Steve Nash signed with (or should I say, rejoined) Phoenix in 2004, he paired up with a coach (Mike D’Antoni) who was perfectly conducive to his playing style preference.  Then began the Seven Seconds or Less (SSL) era – where the Suns revitalized the NBA with a blistering and exciting up-and-down offense.  Despite subsequent playoff failures, they had incredible regular season success and somewhat dispelled the notion that fast-paced offense can’t win games.  Since then, many NBA teams have tried to emulate this model.  An exciting brand of basketball brought great success to the franchise.

Nash has had his share of blows to
the face in playoff action
Unfortunately, the exciting SSL era did not bring any titles to Phoenix.  In most seasons since 2004, they were legitimate contenders.  They seemed to get one bad break after another – Joe Johnson broke his nose in the 05 playoffs and lost in the 2nd round.  Thanks to Cheap Shot Bob (Robert Horry) in 2007, Amare Stoudemire and Boris Diaw were suspended for Game 6 vs. San Antonio.  Horry infamously clocked Nash into the scorer’s table late in Game 4, leading to Stoudemire and Diaw coming to his rescue and thereby getting suspended 1 game each by the league for leaving the proximity of the Phoenix bench.  Had Stoudemire and Diaw been available for Game 5 at home, Phoenix would likely have gone up 3-2 in the series with 2 chances to close out the Spurs instead of going down in six games.  Of course, you’ll see how classy Nash is in that clip by not publicly taking offense to Horry’s cheap shot (and perhaps his greatest clutch “shot” ever). 
In the 2010 playoffs, Nash finally tasted victory against San Antonio after they swept the Spurs in the 2nd round.  The expression “monkey off his back” doesn’t even begin to describe what that must have felt like, given the previous shortcomings.  Sadly, that didn’t spell the end of their bad breaks.  In Game 6 of the Conference Finals vs. the Lakers, Phoenix managed to force Kobe to throw an air ball in the closing seconds, only to see Ron Artest put it back and win the game (and series) for them.

If it weren’t for a few bad breaks – most of which were mired by Nash breaking his noze a few dozen times – they may have won a title or two.  Now, they are doomed for a few years of mediocrity unless they blow up the team and trade Nash.  That won’t happen, because Nash is way too classy and loyal to bail Phoenix.  Hopefully, Phoenix will be appealing enough of oa destination for future superstar free agents.  That’s only the start of what it will take to get this team back to contending status. 

Dallas Mavericks
If I were Mavs owner Mark Cuban, I would have lost all morale by now.  A team with all the ingredients – fantastic owner, great coaches, star players, die-hard fans – still have not been enough.  The problem with many teams is that they have front offices who aren’t willing to spend money to make their teams better.  This team is far from falling into that criteria. As a result, this much-maligned squad oft gets labeled for their lack of postseason success (regardless of regular season success), and many have tried emasculating Dallas superstar Dirk Nowitzki by questioning his toughness as a player. 

The 2006 Mavs rolled over and died after
nearly securing a championship
Dallas's playoff disappointments have been well-documented.  The most crushing blow had to be the aforementioned 2006 NBA Finals, where they were 6 minutes away from having an insurmountable 3-0 series lead vs. Miami.  Unfortunately for them, Dwyane Wade went completely ballistic and destroyed the team to rally his team and win the championship.  Dallas was clearly flustered by Miami’s comeback, and could never recover in that series.  Following that season, coach Avery Johnson had the Mavs completely locked in and focused to win a title.  The team won 66 games that season and was poised to make another title run. 

Side note about Miami:  did anyone see the 4th quarter of Miami vs. LA last night?  How many times did I mention that Wade should be the go-to guy down the stretch?  Watch the highlights of that game; Wade came through in crucial moments on both ends – defending Kobe on one end, and breaking down the Laker defense by getting to the rim on the other end.  He made one great play after another and sealed the win.  The team snapped a long losing streak because they finally let LeBron defer to Wade.  LBJ is a great player – but seemingly only for the first 3 quarters.  

Anyway, the good news for Dallas is that they still have a chance.  And since they have been labeled as the-team-that-never-wins, they will be flying under the radar.  They have a lot to like about this season:  Tyson Chandler has emerged as a great defender who compliments Dirk perfectly.  Caron Butler may be back for the postseason.  Jason Kidd has been playing as well as he can for an old timer, even nabbing a triple double recently.  In fact, read this very interesting article by Ian Levy of the Dallas section of the TrueHoop network.  It’s a very convincing argument that Kidd may be THE most versatile player in NBA history, with respect to his ability to get triple doubles.  LeBron is seen as a guy who is a walking triple double, but Levy shows that Kidd should get that label. 

If Dallas happens to fall short somehow again this season, then I would forever write them off from contention (especially if they don’t’ have injury issues to blame it on).  But not yet.  Give them one more chance.

Now, by making this comprehensive analogy – comparing the Glory mission failure to sports teams – I do not mean to offend or belittle those who spent endless hours diligently working the OCO and Glory missions.  It’s merely a simplified explanation to relate the similar perspectives between the two entirely different topics.  In the same manner where you have so many talented and highly qualified engineers who are tainted by the OCO and Glory failures, you comparably have many great NBA teams who were never able to win a championship.   Hopefully, the Taurus program and the teams I listed and will see glory days (no pun intended) at some point in the near future.  Despite gloomy outlooks for most of these teams, nothing would be worse than never getting a chance.  In other words, nothing is worse than ending up like Seattle.  With a few lucky breaks, many of these franchises could easily have been in better shape.  But franchise-altering events - both instant and long term - have caused great disappointment.

1 comment:

Joe Dant said...

Looking forward to your take on best players to never win a championship.

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