NBA Finals Preview & Conference Finals Recap

We saw two series in each of the Conference Final matchups that resulted in not only the same number of games played, but shared many other similarities in terms of the complexity of the games.  Each series featured a team of veterans vs. the up-and-comers, with experience prevailing in both instances.  Oddly enough, both the Bulls and Thunder suffered colossal meltdowns (Bulls in Game 5, Thunder in Game 4) that led to their demise.  And although each series lasted only five games, the teams were very evenly matched.  A few lucky breaks for the Bulls or Thunder, here or there, could have extended the series to 6 or 7 games.   

Dallas, after convincingly dethroning the two-time defending champs, continued their stretch of impressive play and exhibited what was, for them, unprecedented mental toughness.  The tables have turned, as they are no longer the team that can’t hold leads down the stretch; they are poised on both ends of the court, and a super determined Dirk Nowitzki has taken his game to a whole new level.  If you saw a game where Dallas blew a 15 point lead in the last 5 minutes, you wouldn’t be surprised.  But this time, such a collapse was their opponent’s doing. 

At times, Westbrook lost his cool - and his poise - at
crucial moments during the Conference Finals

On OKC’s end, you can’t help but wonder about Russell Westbrook.  A year removed from his impressive performance against the Lakers last year, he was heavily criticized during this playoff run for his questionable decision-making and often for taking shots away from Durant (their true go-to guy) in crucial moments.  It also appeared that James Harden and Eric Maynor were the team’s better playmakers; recall that the Thunder’s lone win was in Game 2, when Scott Brooks chose to bench Westbrook for the entire 4th quarter.  What’s more troubling was his apparent immaturity he displayed, especially in Game 5.  At one point, he shoved Jason Terry into the 1st row – which probably would have warranted a suspension had there been a Game 6.  After the final buzzer, Westbrook pulled a LeBron by storming off the court without shaking the Mavs’ hands.  If he wants to become a great player, he’s going to have to grow up.  The good news is, he’s only 22 years old. 

This year's MVP struggled  mightily against
 the much-improved D of LeBron. 

After their Game 1 loss to Chicago, Miami was once again a subject of over-scrutiny and found themselves on the “What’s Wrong?” headlines on every sports show.  Derrick Rose showed everyone why he was this year’s landslide MVP winner, dropping 28 on the Heat and was the main catalyst behind their 10-0 run in the 3rd quarter of Game 1.  Also, Taj Gibson had a couple poster-worthy highlight-reel dunks, images that really captured the Bulls’ statement game. But since then, it’s been all Miami.  D-Rose’s youth finally caught up to him, making crucial turnovers seemingly in every game since his standout Game 1 performance.  His decisions down the stretch of Games 2 through 5 were shaky at best.  Credit LeBron, who clamped down and dared Rose to take stepback jump shots over him.  

You can’t put all the blame on Rose, though.  Carlos Boozer, after snapping out of his funk for two games, went back to his old self and resumed his ongoing playoff struggles.  Boozer’s inability to live up to his contract is a disturbing trend that’s become a reality in recent years.  Tom Thibodeau has his work cut out for him this offseason in terms of what he’s going to do with his $85 million man.  The guy who backs him up, Taj Gibson, has clearly been more effective – particularly on the defensive end – during their entire playoff run.   Is Thibodeau going to bench Boozer next year in favor of Gibson?  He should, but I wonder if Bulls GM Gar Forman (who signed Boozer to this big contract last offseason) would be happy with that decision. 

In the end, the Thunder and Bulls have absolutely nothing to be ashamed of.  They both lived up to their higher expectations coming into the regular season.  Nobody anticipated that the Bulls would get the league’s best record, ahead of the likes of Miami, Boston, and the Lakers.  Consider that they had a first year coach, a third-year superstar player, and glaring weaknesses at the 2-guard position - and they've had a heck of a season.  As for the Thunder, they have nothing to worry about; their FOUR best players (Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Harden) are only 22 years old or younger.  Rick Carlisle even said that they were much better than the Lakers, whom they faced (and swept) in the previous round.   

This wasn't their year, but the Bulls and Thunder may very well
face one another in a future Finals matchup

Ultimately, Chicago and OKC are both are going to learn from this experience and, without a doubt, contend for the title for years to come.  Youth is the only thing that kept them from getting past Dallas and Miami.  In addition to their aforementioned issues, both teams will need to make minor tweaks over the offseason, but should be well off with their main core for the foreseeable future.  

And now for the fun part:  predicting this year’s NBA champs.  This is a real toss-up, as both teams have been impossible for their opponents to put away late in games.  Dallas has only lost 3 games total so far in the playoffs, and Miami’s only lost 4.  The headline everyone likes to label these Finals with is:  “Can Dirk avenge the Mavs’ 2006 infamous collapse against Wade’s Heat?”

Wade annihilated Dirk's Mavs in 2006;
can Dirk turn the tables this time around?

Everyone likes to compare this year’s Finals to that of 2006, even though only 4 players from that series remain (Wade, Haslem, Dirk, Terry).  For the sake of comparison, let’s look at Wade and Dirk.  Wade was an absolute monster in that Finals series; according to ESPN’s John Hollinger, Wade had the greatest performance in NBA Finals history.  As the undisputed Finals MVP of that series in just his 3rd season in the NBA, Wade swayed some (including me) that he – not Kobe or LeBron – was the league’s best player.  And back then, nobody could really argue that.

Just as a painful reminder, Dallas was winning by double digits midway through the 4th quarter of Game 3 after securing a 2-0 lead – only to blow that lead and the following 4 games.  In fact, Miami’s Game 6 win in Dallas was their FIRST win in Dallas during the entire season – and it just so happened to be their title-clinching win.  We’ve seen Miami overcome these type of odds this year also – as was often pointed out, Miami was swept by Chicago and lost 3 of 4 games to Boston.  This goes to show that stats don’t mean ANYTHING  - especially when you’re talking about teams that are playing at the highest of levels in a 7-game series.  So, you better believe that Miami’s 0-2 regular season record against Dallas this year doesn’t mean anything, either (especially since both games were played in 2010).  Remember this, though:  when Miami won 21 of 22 games in a remarkable stretch of great basketball in December and early January, Dallas was that one team that beat Miami – on their home floor, to boot. 

Let’s go back to Dirk for a second:  many blamed him for Dallas’s total meltdown in that 2006 series.  Consequently, many questioned his toughness and doubted his ability to lead a team to a title.  While most of the criticism was unfair, he didn’t help his cause in that last Game 6 – he went 0-5 from the field down the stretch of that game, failing to capitalize on several wide-open jump shots.  Wade, conversely, devastated the Mavs and picked them apart in every way – on passes, drives to the rim, and from the foul line. 

Even against a top-notch defender in Serge Ibaka,
Dirk has been lights out from the field

Heading into these playoffs, however, the opposite trend is taking place:  Dirk has been scorching hot, while Wade has been relatively cold.  He’s dealing with a few nagging injuries (seemingly a common theme for him, unfortunately), resulting in limited effectiveness.  While he did come through in moments that mattered against Chicago (especially Game 4 where he hosted a block party by himself in the game’s last 2 minutes), he really hasn’t had a memorable D-Wade-type game yet.  This either means the injuries are bothering him more than he’s letting on, or he’s due for an explosion during these Finals.  As for Nowitzki, his performance to this point has been impeccable.  Yet you still wonder whether he’ll come through now that he’s back in the Finals against the very team that derailed him and his teammates. 

So what can we expect from the two superstars this time around?  My guess is that the individual trends thus far this postseason will continue for them (Wade cold, Dirk hot), regardless of the outcome of the series.  If Wade is not fully healthy, he may continue his struggles against Dallas’s solid zone defense.   Fortunately for Wade, he has LeBron on his side.  He is now getting more help than he could imagine from his superstar teammate, who has suddenly shown a killer instinct in Miami’s last two playoff series.  He is truly on a mission to silence all the hatred that’s come his way since ‘The Decision’, and he’s 4 games away from really sticking it to all the haters. 

Honestly, I’m rooting for Dirk and the Mavs.  Miami has had a great season considering all the “drama” they’ve been through all year (I’m putting “drama” in quotes because most of it was overhyped and over-scrutinized by the media), and the three-headed monster of Wade, LeBron, and Bosh will only get better for years to come.  They’ll have plenty of chances to win a title.  The Mavs’ window, however, is quite smaller than that of Miami’s.  Jason Kidd is reaching the twilight of his career at 38 years old, and Dirk’s toward the end of his prime at 32.  Dallas will be competitive in the West with this core for the next 2-3 years, but this may be their best chance to win the title.  After being heavily criticized for coming up short throughout his career, I think it would be very fitting for Dirk to finally win a title – especially against the same team that he faded against 5 years ago. 

While I’m rooting for Dallas, I really can’t see Miami losing.  With LeBron and D-Wade, a game is never out of reach for this team.  The two of them seem to turn it up a notch down the stretch of games, making it extremely difficult for opponents to put them away.  

Bosh and Miami's bigs have the ability to contain Dirk
- at least more so than Dallas' previous opponents

Also, note that Chris Bosh is going to be a huge factor in this series, and might give Dirk more problems than anybody else that he’s faced.   Bosh’s one-on-one defense is vastly underrated, and he is better suited against perimeter-oriented big men (like himself) than against true post-up players.  The dynamic of that matchup will be much different than the Dirk-Serge Ibaka matchup.  Ibaka is a great defender, but is more of a weak side helper/shot blocker than a one-on-one defender, which is why Dirk was able to pick him apart through the course of the Thunder series.  Bosh will not allow Dirk to beat him off the dribble; Dirk will need to utilize his post-up game a lot more than he has in any of their previous series.  On the offensive end, Dirk may have a hard time keeping up with Bosh, who has a sizeable quickness advantage on Nowitzki and thereby could put Dirk in foul trouble early in games.  With Miami’s Big 3 and superior defense figuring out a way to contain Dallas’s biggest weapons, they have a distinct advantage against the Mavs. 

So it’s the classic heart vs. head argument:  my head’s telling me Miami will win this, but my heart’s telling me Dallas will prove everyone wrong once again and Dirk will finally win a title that’s eluded him for so many years.  If that happens, who wouldn’t want to see commissioner David Stern pretend to be happy having to give Mark Cuban a championship trophy? 

My prediction, all things considered? Miami in 6. 

Changing of the Guards

So in case you haven’t noticed, I haven’t been writing a whole lot lately; I’ve been gone for 2 weeks on travel for work and unfortunately have not had any free time for blogging lately.  In that time, much has gone on that has happened relatively quickly, so we need to take a quick look at what happened and what we can expect through the remainder of the playoffs.

During my 2-week trip, I visited the Arlington National Cemetery in Washington DC.  One of the coolest things I got to see there is the changing of the guards at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier.  At this location, a permanent guard from the 3rd US Infantry Regiment is mounted at all times - and there is a short ceremony of switching guards periodically depending on the time of day.  Beyond this literal meaning, the "changing of the guards" expression has become a metaphor for transferring duties of one person on to another.  In the case of the NBA, the metaphor refers to a former powerhouse team making way for another up-and-comer to take the reigns.  

To sum it up, this year’s playoffs have signified a changing of the guards.  Boston, LA, and San Antonio – three of the NBA’s dominant teams – are all out.  We have to get used to a conference final without Duncan, Kobe, and Pierce/KG/Allen.  The new up-and-comers – OKC, Chicago, and Miami – are in a position to take the reigns as the NBA’s next generation of elite teams.   

Let’s digest what happened to the Lakers and Celtics, and take a look at what we can expect in the Conference Finals. 

Dallas def LA Lakers, 4-0

Despite my previous notion that Dallas is tailor-made to beat LA, I went against my gut feeling and picked against them because, well, they’re Dallas.  But the Mavs shocked the world and completely picked apart the 2-time defending champs, exploiting LA’s greatest weaknesses:  pick-and-roll defense and inferior bench players. 

The Lakers never had to deal with Dirk in any 7-game
series before getting swept in this one

The scapegoat of this series has been Pau Gasol.  Let’s be clear, though:  the Dirk-led Mavs and Kobe-led Lakers have NEVER met in the playoffs.  Ever consider that the Mavs are just better?  I mean, Kobe and Andrew Bynum both had a pretty good series.  Beyond Gasol’s underwhelming performance, I think this was just a matter of the Lakers getting outplayed by Dallas more than anything else.  As I mentioned before, Dirk has had decent success against Pau in their head-to-head matchups over the years, dating back to Pau’s days in Memphis.  During all their successful playoff runs, the Lakers never had to face a guy like Dirk – someone who is devastating in any pick-and-roll situation due to his impeccable shooting and improving driving ability.  On top of Dirk’s great play, he had plenty of help from the Mavs bench.  Jason Terry absolutely torched LA, tying an NBA Playoff record with 9 three-pointers. 

This series also shows how worn out the Lakers are after 3 straight trips to the Finals.  After getting lit up by Chris Paul, Derek Fisher had a relatively favorable matchup against an older Jason Kidd.  But he has shown that it’s not just the younger and quicker point guards that give him fits; he just flat out has lost his ability to stay in front of anyone.  So, when JJ Barea came in the game, Fisher had no chance whatsoever.  Hell, Phil Jackson had to settle for subbing Shannon Brown in for Fisher to guard him.  While Kobe did OK scoring-wise in the series, most of his points came from contested jump shots (if memory serves, he only made ONE layup during the entire series). 

In the complete blowout that occurred in Game 4, the Lakers completely surrendered in what was probably Phil Jackson’s last game with the Lakers.  I don’t think he’s done coaching altogether; Mavs coach Rick Carlisle put it best, saying "My belief is that he’ll retire for a while," Carlisle said, "but I don’t know how long you can go to Montana and meditate and smoke peyote or whatever he does there. I don’t know. He’s going to get bored. And I mean that in an endearing way.”  You’ve seen coaching legends like Larry Brown and Lennie Wilkens come back from retirement again and again out of boredom.  Coaching is an extremely demanding job with high expectations, and he is among only 4 coaches with guaranteed long-term job security (the other 3 being Greg Popovich, Doc Rivers, and Jerry Sloan before he suddenly quit).  Generally, it’s tough for any successful and driven person to go from such a demanding and stimulating job to doing nothing.  Then again, what’s his motivation?  He needs a ring for his other big toe?

This series has the potential to go
the distance, and get testy along the way

Back to Dallas:  if they have indeed shed their label as a mentally fragile squad, they have the talent to finally avenge their 2006 collapse.  Charles Barkley seems to think that OKC is a better matchup for Dallas than Memphis would have been, but I beg to differ:  Dallas will have major, major problems guarding the two-headed monster of Durant and Westbrook.  Against LA, they’ve already proven that they could contain guys that can dominate the paint.  If they fared well against Bynum and Gasol, they would have been fine against Zach Randolph and the other Gasol.  But I don’t think they will have an answer for Westbrook and Durant, who will give Dallas fits. 

On the other hand, Dallas has some matchup advantages as well.  Serge Ibaka will have a harder time being matched up against Dirk than he did vs. Z-Bo and Kenyon Martin in their previous series.  He won’t be able to help his teammates in the paint, either, on penetrating perimeter players like Kidd and Barea.  OKC is not as deep as Dallas, either.  As long as Chandler continues to be an effective defensive anchor, I think Dallas will edge OKC in 7.   

Miami def Boston, 4-1

What many thought would be a clash of the titans-type matchup turned out to be a shorter series than expected.  Miami controlled the series from the get-go, with Miami’s Big 3 dominating the Celtics in every aspect.  They also got some unexpected help from James Jones and Joel Anthony; when the two of them were in the lineup, Boston seemed to struggle the most. The 5-man lineup of Wade-James-Jones-Bosh-Anthony has played a total of 3 minutes prior to Game 5, but I get the feeling we’ll see that more against Chicago (if that lineup proves effective). 

Considering how short this series ended up being, you can't help but wonder where Boston would be had they not traded Kendrick Perkins to the Thunder.  When the starting five of Rondo-Allen-Pierce-KG-Perk were all healthy, they NEVER lost a playoff series.  Danny Ainge will have some explaining to do, though it's not his fault that he got virtually nothing from the O'Neals.  Shaq and Jermaine have shown flashes, but not surprisingly, could never stay healthy enough to make steady contributions.  Still, this is by no means the demise of the Celtics.  With the core still intact and Doc committing to a 5-year extension, they should be able to re-tool their roster and be contenders again next year.  

There was some controversy with the way Miami celebrated after their win.  Personally, I didn’t have a problem with it for two reasons:  1) it’s really, really hard to put away a team like Boston the way they did, and 2) LeBron was clutch when it mattered, for once.  Let’s look at the latter reason.  Try to look at this from LeBron’s perspective:  here’s a guy who has been much-maligned all season long by everyone (myself included) for the way he left Cleveland, and his apparent inability to make plays down the stretch.  In this game, he put away a tough Boston team by scoring the game’s last 10 points.  When he was screaming to the Miami crowd and crying at the end of the game, that was his way to finally let out his relief considering all the hatred that came his way.

Was LeBron's emotional reaction to his breakthrough win a little over-the-top?
Maybe.  But it was understandable.

While I didn’t think there was anything wrong with the celebration, I do think it caused them to have an emotional letdown in their Game 1 loss against Chicago.  Chicago is by far Miami’s toughest matchup, as they are the NBA’s best defensive team and are best equipped to handle the two-man wrecking crew of Wade and Bron.  For the record, I still think Miami will win in six games.  Once they realize they are not even close to their goal of winning a title yet, they will re-focus on the task at hand.  Still, this will be an electrifying series that may very well go the distance. 

As the Conference Finals just began on Sunday, the changing-of-the-guards process happened quicker than we expected.  Now, we can just sit back and enjoy the next generation of great NBA teams going at it.

Second Round Predictions

As anticipated, no “expert” in the world predicted the 1^st Round correctly.  Since the Spurs and Magic were unable to turn on the switch after stumbling to the finish of the regular season, they proceeded to destroy my original predictions (though my Finals prediction of Lakers Heat is still intact).   

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series:  Memphis won 3-1

Prediction:  Thunder in 6

Obviously, Memphis has proven they are a force to be reckoned with.  This will be a long and grueling series, as both teams are young and athletic at every position with veteran experience.  The biggest difference in this series, however, is matchups with regard to Memphis facing OKC rather than San Antonio, particularly at the point guard position.  Russell Westbrook should have his way against Mike Conley with his relatively consistent jump shooting and slashing ability.  Tony Parker is more so a slasher and is extremely streaky from the perimeter.  When he’s cold,the inside presence of the Grizzlies (Randolph, Gasol, Darrell Arthur) were able to contain Parker’s ability to attack the paint.  He made several careless plays down the stretch of Friday’s Game 6 to boot. 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series:  Lakers won 2-1

Prediction: Lakers in 5

While I previously wrote that the Mavs are talented enough to beat LA, their lack of killer instinct shown most recently against the Portland Trailblazers in Game 4 has verified their mental fragility.  Needless to say, that will easily derail their chances against LA. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series:  Bulls won 2-1

Prediction: Bulls in 5

After Jameer Nelson infamously told Derrick Rose “See you in the second round!” after their last regular season meeting (horrible, horrible decision by Jameer, by the way), Derrick will think Jameer’s a liar when he sees the surprisingly resilient Hawks squad on the other side of the court instead of the Magic. 

You have to give credit to the Hawks for getting here, regardless how poorly the Magic played.  At the end of the day, though, Orlando would still have been a better suited to beat the Bulls than the Hawks are.  I can’t see Jamal Crawford and Joe Johnson putting up big numbers consistently, but I do see Derrick Rose continuing his remarkable playoff run.  With Kirk Hinrich’s injury, Rose will have nobody in his way to stop him.  If Hinrich were healthy, I would give the Hawks a much better chance to make this series interesting. 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series:  Celtics won 3-1

Prediction: Heat in 7

This is easily the best series of the 2^nd round.  As Chris Bosh said, everyone knew this series was going to happen, and the Heat would have to go through Boston in order to win a championship.  Is Miami ready to dethrone the reigning Eastern Conference champs?  I think they will be.  My only asterisk to this prediction is that Spoelstra still may not have learned to NOT let LeBron have the ball late in close games. 

Quick take on the Playoff’s First Round So Far

I’ll say this much:  I’ve never seen a first round this good.  Never have I seen most, if not all, of the lower seeds play so well.  I predicted some landslide first round matchups, and that’s been far from the case in every series so far.  Even in the lopsided series in terms of games won, the lower seeded teams have admirably battled against their heavily favored opponents.  We did manage to see one sweep so far (Boston over NY), but that series was very competitive until the Knicks could no longer sustain injuries to their key guys (Billups, Stoudemire).  Most experts deemed the top four seeds from each conference superior to the remaining field, but one wouldn’t have been able to tell that by watching the games so far.  In other words, nobody (including me) predicted an upset.  Now, it turns out of all eight first round matchups, HALF could end up in upsets (with Memphis, New Orleans, Portland, and Atlanta potentially winning).  I’m not saying that’s likely, but few thought those four teams would be in a position to pull off an upset. 

I’m going to go over my thoughts on each series so far, starting with the most intriguing (and surprising) ones.  I’ll assign each series into one of three categories:  1) Most surprising (likely upsets), 2) Somewhat surprising, and 3) About what we expected.

Category 1:  MOST SURPRISING/UPSETS BREWING

Memphis/San Antonio, Atlanta/Orlando

Memphis 3, San Antonio 1

Randolph has helped Memphis take control
of this series

This is, without a doubt, the most shocking series so far. Not only is Memphis up 3-1, but they absolutely annihilated the Spurs in Game 4 to take a commanding series lead.  Manu Ginobili may still not be 100% healthy, and this may be the beginning of the end for this particular Spurs core.  I, for one, thought Tim Duncan would turn back the clock and pick apart the Grizzlies.  Instead, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol – who, by the way, is clearly playing better than his brother Pau currently – are having their way in the paint.  If San Antonio goes on to become the second first-seeded team to lose in the 1^st round (in a best-of-7 format), you better believe team GM R.C. Buford will do a complete overhaul of this team.  Here’s the question:  who can you trade?   The San Antonio community would be furious if they trade Duncan, who is a Spurs icon and still has a couple more years of decent basketball left in the tank, so I don’t think they would give away THE Spurs legend.  Tony Parker has trade value, but he's still young and the team could be built around him (since good point guards are hard to come by).  My bold offseason prediction: Ginobili’s gone after this year. 

On to Memphis:  the most unsung hero of the series so far is Tony Allen.  Here is a guy who won a title with the Celtics three years ago, and now he is providing his veteran championship experience to guide this young Memphis team.  He is truly leading by example and exhibiting the effort needed to pull off an upset of this magnitude – gathering nearly every “50/50” loose ball, making timely baskets, and just showing a lot of poise in general.  Even when he’s on the bench, he’s constantly cheering on his teammates regardless of the score of the games. 

In the playoffs, young teams have a tendency to feel the pressure against veteran teams like San Antonio.  But they have truly shocked the world and taken complete control of the series, and have already proven to the world that they are not a true 8^th seed.  I could see the Spurs winning at home in Game 5 and potentially make a comeback.  However, only 8 teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit, but a veteran team like the Spurs can do it.  Given how badly Memphis has outplayed the Spurs, I think this next series is the more likely to see such a comeback..

Atlanta 3, Orlando 1

Howard's played well, but he's getting
virtually no help from his teammates

This turn of events can very well derail my playoff bracket, as I picked Orlando to edge Chicago in Round 2.  There’s a couple things I overlooked:  for one, they acquired HUGE upgrade over Mike Bibby at the trade deadline with Kirk Hinrich, whose defensive abilities are vastly underrated; he’s one of the big reasons why both Jameer Nelson and Gilbert Arenas have been wildly inconsistent. 

Atlanta’s strategy of single coverage on Dwight Howard has proven to be very effective.  This strategy itself shows how much better of a head coach Larry Drew is than Mike Woodson, who was fired after the Magic absolutely destroyed the Hawks by a combined 100+ points in a 4-game sweep.  In any case, Drew has thrown every one of his bigs at Dwight in a one-on-one battle, with Jason Collins being the most effective Howard defender.  On offense, Jamal Crawford and Al Horford have fully exploited the Magic’s awful pick-and-roll defense so far. 

Here’s why I don’t think it’s over:  for one, Hedo Turkoglu and his teammates can’t possibly play this poorly forever.  Also, despite the total no-show from everyone but Dwight Howard, every game has been relatively close so far.  Despite shooting an atrocious 2-23 from the three-point line, Orlando somehow still had a chance to win (even without Jason Richardson, who was suspended for his role in a scuffle with Hawks backup C Zaza Pachulia.  Interestingly enough, Joe Johnson has been as mediocre as he historically has against Orlando in the playoffs – but sixth man Jamal Crawford has been on fire during this series – leading the team in scoring in 3 out of the 4 games so far.  The fact that Atlanta can’t play much better than they have been, combined with the chance that the Magic are due for a somewhat decent game from anyone not named Dwight, leads me to believe they can extend this series.  I will be attending Game 5 tomorrow night in Orlando, where I expect the Magic to turn things around and win.  From there, it’s just a matter of pulling off one road win in Atlanta before having a chance to edge the Hawks in Game 7.  I don’t think they are as outmatched as the Spurs are with Memphis. 

More likely than not, however, Atlanta should keep this up and oust the Magic in one of the next two games.  After years of difficulty vs. the Howard-led Magic, it appears that Larry Drew and the Hawks have finally concocted a good strategy to defeat them.  If Crawford stays hot and Turkoglu continues to struggle, the Hawks should pull off an upset.

Category 2:  MILDLY UNEXPECTED

Boston/NY, LA/New Orleans, OKC/Denver

Boston 4, New York 0

Anthony and the Knicks fell apart in Games 3 and 4

I predicted that the Celtics would have a relatively easy time with the Knicks.  What I didn’t expect was that the Celtics would be quite fortunate to win the first two games of the series, which both came down to the wire.  But after the first two fiercely competitive games in which Stoudemire and Billups suffered injuries, the Knicks basically just packed it in during Games 3 and 4.  A tremendous outburst from Carmelo Anthony (42 pts, 17 rebs) kept the Knicks within striking distance in Game 2, but he was unable to sustain his level of play during the games at MSG.  Having said that, it was really about Boston playing better after struggling in the first two games.  Rajon Rondo looks like he’s back to his early-season form, and Pierce and Allen have finally regained their touch from the perimeter. 

Those who are Knicks fans shouldn’t be too bummed about this.  For one, it’s nice to finally play in games that matter – and I’m sure most Knicks fans are thankful for that.  If the team can continue to build around Stoudemire and Anthony, there is hope for them.  However, they still need to address the defensive liability of those two.  I also have my doubts as to whether Mike D’Antoni’s system can go as far as winning a title.  But the team has definitely taken a turn for the better, and should be relevant again for the next few years.  You gotta give huge props to GM Donnie Walsh for turning this around after Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas did their best to destroy the franchise.  Before Walsh took over, I thought this team was doomed for decades of futility.

With the way the Celtics closed out the series, I can’t wait for the Boston-Miami 2^nd Round matchup; that will be by far the most intriguing series in the next round.  

Los Angeles 2, New Orleans 2

 The only reason why I didn’t put this in Category 1 is that I think this Laker team is coasting in this series.  I don’t mean to take anything away from the Hornets, who have been brilliant – especially Chris Paul.  After guys like Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams have emerged as the NBA’s best point guards this season, Paul kind of got overshadowed.  After completely torching the Lakers in two games so far, including a dominant triple-double performance in Game 4, he has immediately put himself back in the running as the league’s best floor general.

Nobody on LA has been able to contain CP3 this series

Obviously, Chris Paul is the biggest reason for the Hornets’ victories against the defending champs.  But I have to give credit to at least one of his teammates – Carl Landry.  Many Hornets fans criticized the midseason trade of Marcus Thornton to Sacramento in exchange for Carl Landry, given Thornton’s frequent scoring outbursts as a member of the Kings thereafter.  But in this series, Landry has fully demonstrated his value facing the league’s best frontcourt tandem of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.  What he lacks in size when matched up with them, he makes up for with pure defensive effort.  He has filled the void for the injured David West splendidly, and he should be getting more credit for the Hornets relative success (and Gasol’s struggles) thus far. 

As for the Lakers, their effort has been erratic.  Pau Gasol has been inconsistent, perhaps only partly due to Landry’s defense.  With Kobe ailing with a sprained ankle (an injury I’m sure he will play through), the Hornets are two more superhuman CP3 performances away from pulling off a stunning upset.  Sixth man of the Year winner Lamar Odom had an awful Game 4, along with the rest of LA’s bench.  Still, I think the Lakers will wake up and dominate Game 5 at home, perhaps with a better sense of urgency to close out this series.  I expect Phil Jackson to come up with ways to somewhat contain CP3 (or at least his teammates), and to ready his team to face the winner of Dallas and Portland.

Oklahoma City 3, Denver 1

While most did expect the Thunder to eventually figure out this scrappy Denver team and advance, nobody anticipated such a lopsided outcome.  It even took a career playoff high 41 points from Kevin Durant to edge Denver in Game 1.  Since then, however, it’s been basically all OKC.  Denver managed to avoid a sweep by winning Game 4 at home, but it appears that they’re on the verge of a summer vacation. 

My only theory for the series going by quicker than expected is that Denver’s lack of star power has finally caught up to them.  Their solid play since the Carmelo Anthony trade has been well-documented, but the playoffs are all about having stars that can get the job done in the heat of a playoff series.  With so much attention on Westbrook and Durant, opportunities arise for Serge Ibaka (who had a monster Game 3 performance – 22 pts/16 rebs) and the rest of the team.  Since Denver doesn’t have any such players that command double teams, it puts a lot of pressure on George Karl and the Nuggets to create scoring opportunities.  Without a true go-to scorer, the Nuggets will always have trouble closing games – especially against a team like OKC with two budding superstars. 

  

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets appear to be outmatched by the Thunder's talented team

With the Spurs fading, the Thunder appear to be a lock to go to the Western Conference Finals.  However, note that they lost 3 of 4 games against Memphis in the regular season.  I will reassess that matchup if Memphis goes on to beat the Spurs, but just note that by no means are the Thunder guaranteed to roll over the Grizzlies. 

Category 3:  JUST AS EXPECTED

Chicago/Indiana, Miami/Philadelphia, Dallas/Portland

Chicago 3, Indiana 1

D-Rose has been stellar as expected, but the Pacers
haven't rolled over by any means

As expected, Derrick Rose is having his way with the Pacers – averaging .  What we didn’t expect is how resilient of a team Indiana is.  Much like Denver, they have a deep and talented roster despite no true superstar.  Danny Granger is their best player, but no superstar (remember that he got benched in favor of the likes of Rudy Gay and Andre Iguodala during the World Championships last summer).  But Granger, Darren Collison, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, and Tyler Hansbrough are all holding their own against Chicago, minus allowing Rose to dominate the series.  If not for the furious rally in Game 1 and Rose’s crafty game-winner in Game 3, we could be looking at a potential 6 or 7 game series.  Guess the East is not nearly as weak at the bottom as everyone thought.

What’s particularly disturbing for the Bulls is the relatively poor play of Carlos Boozer.  Here’s a guy who has struggled against the elite power forwards of the NBA (e.g. Duncan, Gasol), and in this series he’s having trouble keeping up with Pacers F Tyler Hansbrough.  In Game 1, Hansbrough just had a field day against Boozer – going for 22 points on a barrage of jump shots.  Boozer’s a total defensive liability, which is why I thought even Orlando’s frontcourt would give him problems.  If things go the way they have been, he will be going up against Al Horford – another guy who can make perimeter jump shots and also beat other bigs off the dribble.  I would expect him to struggle then, as well, if Hansbrough is giving him problems.  Nevertheless, Chicago moves on and can probably exhale soon knowing they won’t go up against Dwight Howard. 

Miami 3, Philadelphia 1

Had Miami not inexplicably reverted back to going to LeBron James as their closer, this would have been an easy sweep.  I’m not sure if head coach Erik Spoelstra is trying to give LeBron some confidence by entrusting him with the ball during crunch time, but it’s safe to say that he, for whatever reason, never comes through in those situations.  When it comes to FG% of potential game-winning or game-tying baskets, Miami is dead last in the league.  Allow me to be even more redundant than I have been about this very subject:  LeBron HAS to be held accountable for Miami to hold such a miserable stat like that. We KNOW D-Wade is their best clutch player, so they shouldn’t divert from having him be the closer.

Miami's Big 3 are all having their way vs. Philly

Although Philadelphia has played well, they are clearly inferior in terms of talent.  Doug Collins, a Coach of the Year candidate, has turned this Sixer team around and turned them into a playoff team.  More importantly, last year’s 2^nd overall pick, Evan Turner, has finally been showing signs that he can play.  That, more than anything, has to be a relief for Sixers fans regardless of what happens in this series.  There’s about a 0.1% chance that they can upset Miami on Wednesday, but things are looking up for this squad. 

Dallas 3, Portland 2

This could be one of the very few chances Brandon Roy
will have left to be playing at this level

A very entertaining series, which was widely expected to be as such.  Of course, Dallas's Game 4 collapse reminded everyone of their repeated practice of showing 0 killer instinct when it comes to closing out opponents.  I was originally thinking that this particular team would not show those same qualities as the previous disappointing Mavs teams, but it appears that I’m wrong.  They may still close out this series, but NOBODY is scared of them.  Ask anybody who’s won a championship – they would verify this:  in the playoffs, you need to have a certain swagger or intimidation factor if you want to win.  The Celtics have that.  The Lakers have that.  The Heat have it.  Dallas?  Nobody was or is afraid of them.  Portland has further exposed their mental fragility, which will hurt them in the next series against LA. 

For Portland, it was awesome to see Brandon Roy have a great game.  Fresh off his complaints about not getting much playing time in the first three games, he responded with a fantastic performance and was the main driver behind Portland’s 23-point comeback win.  However, these kind of performances probably won’t be too consistent Without any MCLs in either knee, he will struggle with injuries throughout the rest of his career, unfortunately.  But if he’s able to play at a high level in spurts, that’s as much as the Blazers could hope for.  Against Dallas, they have a chance to make one last push and potentially take the next two games to win the series.  The Mavs are clearly the more talented team at the moment, but they will always be vulnerable without a killer instinct against a resilient team like the Blazers.  For now, I’ll stick with my original pick of Dallas in 7.

NBA Playoff Predictions Part III: NBA Conference Semifinals and Beyond

Every year, we see the same trend through the second round of the playoffs.  NBA haters, to this point, will scoff at the lack of upsets in the 1st round and spew off some hogwash about how boring the NBA playoffs are if all the top seeds advance as predicted.  The East, in particular, has such a large gap between the 4^th (Orlando) and 5^th (Atlanta) seeds on down, which is why no 1^st round series there will be all that interesting.

What the haters must understand, though, is that the uncompetitive games and matchups from the 1^st round are coming to an immediate halt starting in the 2^nd round and onwards.  From the 2nd Round on, all pretenders are weeded out and it's a battle of the contenders from then on.  At this point, outcomes become extremely hard to predict.  Regular season records between teams will mean virtually nothing to this point, especially with all the heavyweights involved.  And, in a 7-game series, NBA coaching staffs are able to put together scouting reports that are more detailed than you can imagine.  The margin for error for all these teams, to this point, will be minuscule. 

I’ll try to predict the 2^nd round on based on my 1^st round predictions, though do know that I will make these predictions again regardless after the 1^st round is over (especially if my 1^st round predictions are wrong).  I honestly don’t really know who’s going to win the title this year – it really is going to depend on who faces who going forward, since the fortune of teams will vary greatly based on matchups. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Bulls, 3-1

Prediction:  Magic win 4-2

I suspect I will be the minority in this prediction.  Hear me out:  these are one of those matchups that might be favorable for Orlando.  I still stand by the fact that Orlando got really bored of the regular season, especially Hedo Turkoglu.  Hedo WILL step up in the playoffs, and has always been very effective at running the Magic offense – especially in clutch situations.  They still have deadly shooters all over the court, even if JJ Redick is dealing with an injury.  I suspect Howard and Bass to give the Bulls frontcourt fits, especially Carlos Boozer. 

By the way, as I’m writing this, I’m watching Game 1 of the Bulls-Pacers.  Even if they didn’t accomplish the furious rally in Game 1, I fully expect the Bulls to win the series handily – though you have to take your hat off to Tyler Hansbrough and the Pacers for making this series interesting.  While I knew Boozer is an awful defender (and have mentioned that before), I didn’t expect Hansbrough to exploit him this much.  On offense, Boozer has had tremendous difficulty against the elite bigs of the NBA (see the last several Laker-Jazz playoff matchups and his awful performances against Pau Gasol).  Against a guy like Brandon Bass, I expect him to have the same difficulties.  Joakim Noah holds his own against most centers, but not Dwight Howard; Noah’s only 0-rebound game came in a 107-78 loss against Howard and the Magic earlier this season.  If the Bulls utilize their other bigs – Taj Gibson and Omer Asik – a bit more against the Magic’s formidable frontcourt, then they will fare better and may be able to win the series. 

For now, I’m predicting the Magic to utilize their deadly inside-outside game.  With Howard controlling the paint, Rose is going to have to take on a crazy load offensively and create scoring opportunities for his teammates.  The one guy who could screw this up for Orlando is Gilbert Arenas, who has somehow gotten worse as the season progressed.  If he is guarding Rose, he will get lit up just as bad – if not worse – as Boozer will by Howard and Bass.  Nevertheless, unless Rose has a monster performance for the ages (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does), I think the Magic will find a way to hang on.  The Rose-led Bulls have never been past the 1^st Round, and I think their inexperience will catch up to them against the veteran Magic.  Chicago is a great team, but they aren’t quite there.  Yet.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series:  Celtics, 3-1

Prediction:  Heat win 4-3

These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions lately, though the Celtics proved last year that limping towards the finish of the regular season is not indicative of how they’ll perform in the playoffs.   Still, the loss of Perkins and Nate Robinson will catch up to them in this series.  If Shaq was healthy, I could see him giving the weak Miami frontcourt some problems.  But he’s not – he’s literally played 5 minutes since February 1^st.  The guy probably hasn’t done a full workout in a year, which is probably why he’s bound to sprain something if he exerts any energy whatsoever.   

Even with their shortcomings, the Celtics are still going to be a very tough out, and I anticipate this series going down to the wire.  If Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and KG log heavy minutes, they will keep the games close.  But I have no faith in their supporting cast to hold their own against Miami, not that the Heat’s role players are any better.  Overall, I think Miami’s improved over the course of the season and the superstar trio will overmatch Boston’s aging roster. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season Series:  Spurs, 3-0

Prediction:  Spurs win 4-3

OKC is a popular pick to win this series, especially given the fact that these two teams have gone in opposite directions since February.  The Thunder have gone 13-3 since acquiring Perkins (and not by coincidence, Ibaka’s improvement), while the Spurs have stumbled to the finish and barely held on to the 1 seed.  Many think they peaked too early, and are a popular pick to lose this series given Ginobili’s health issues.  Those are all valid arguments, but I am banking on Ginobili to regain his form and for Tim Duncan to take on a bigger load offensively.  They are the West’s version of the Celtics with regard to turning it on for the postseason.  Don’t forget that they were the 7^th seed last year and completely dismantled Dallas in their first round matchup, albeit that was the Mavericks we’re talking about.   The Thunder are much like the Bulls, in that they’re still a very young and talented team.  But inexperience may hurt them against a team like the Spurs.

I could very well be wrong, especially if Ginobili or any other Spur isn’t 100% healthy.  But I think people continue to dismiss the Spurs way too quickly, and they will shock the world even though this technically wouldn’t be an upset. 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series:  Lakers, 2-1

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-3

A few weeks ago, I would have picked Dallas to steal this one from the Lakers.  This team, as I’ve mentioned before, is built to beat them.  Now, after seeing them lately, I have my doubts.  Unlike the Celtics, Lakers, or Spurs, I do think this team needs to be in a good groove heading into the playoffs and can’t just turn it on.  Assuming Dallas has a tough time with Portland, they may be too worn down against the well-rested Lakers (assuming they have an easy time with New Orleans), allowing Bynum, Matt Barnes, and the other less-than-100% Lakers to get some rest before facing the Mavericks.  I still think Dallas will give the Lakers some tough matchups, particularly with Nowitzki spreading the floor if he’s matched up with Gasol.  But Phil Jackson will find a way to get in the head of the Mavericks, which is probably not too hard for him to do. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

The two Floridian teams have experienced up-and-down seasons.  But after all their struggles, here they are in my version of the Conference Finals.  One can’t help but point out that Miami will have no answer whatsoever for Howard, who is bound to dominate the series.  However, in the end, Miami’s suffocating defense will overwhelm the Magic’s perimeter players.  Howard will get frustrated having to constantly help out his teammates that will get abused by Wade and James slashing their way to the rim, which will possibly lead to foul trouble on his part.  Over the course of the series, that will wear on Orlando.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-1

An OKC-LA conference finals matchup is what everyone wants to see.  After the Spurs ruin that possibility, LA is their worst possible matchup of any elite team in the playoff bracket.  I just can’t help but remember LA’s complete beatdown of the Spurs on March 6^th in San Antonio, where they completely manhandled the Spurs and led by as many as 32 points in that game.  Ultimately, I think that’s going to resemble the dynamics this series more so than any of their other regular season matchups.  As great as Duncan is, he will be worn down by Gasol and Bynum in the post.  Ron Artest will probably get matched up against Ginobili, who tends to struggle against physical defenders.  This leaves Kobe on Jefferson, making the Spurs’ only matchup advantage at the point guard position (Parker on Fisher). 

NBA FINALS

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Heat won 2-0

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

This is the dream matchup for David Stern and the NBA.  The presence of Bryant, Wade, and James will make for TV ratings galore.  As I’ve written before, Miami matches up better with this Laker team than anybody in the league.  With Miami having home court, they should be able to impose their style of play on the Lakers.  With their stifling defense, Wade and James don’t both have to play well.  If Wade continues to give Kobe problems on both ends of the floor, that will allow LeBron to focus his energy on offense and continue to be a Laker killer.  Of all perimeter superstars, James is bothered the least by Artest’s physical defense.  Also, while Gasol has a matchup advantage on Chris Bosh, Bosh can space the floor with his consistent 17-18 foot jump shot and keep Gasol honest (i.e. away from the paint on defense), as can Zydrunas Ilgauskas against Andrew Bynum. 

Miami is the one team that you can say is truly not afraid of the Lakers, and I think this would show in the playoffs.  The only question is whether Miami can get there – I could see them having trouble against the Bulls if Orlando fails to eliminate them.  But the playoffs are about matchups (sick of me saying that yet?), and Miami should be able to capitalize on their offseason splash of bringing their dynamic trio together.

This would be a storybook ending to what has been a true roller coaster ride.  It appears the team finally figured out the right formula for winning:  let LeBron run the show for the first 3 quarters, and then have Wade be the closer.  They've also managed to get Bosh more involved, as his numbers have picked up as the season progressed. For them, it would be very impressive to win a title in their first year under incredible scrutiny since the Big 3 announced their "Decision."  Winning a title would be the only way that would make their welcome party look like a good idea.

Again, nobody is ever 100% correct in predicting every playoff series, so I will reassess these predictions as each round progresses.