Quick take on the Playoff’s First Round So Far

I’ll say this much:  I’ve never seen a first round this good.  Never have I seen most, if not all, of the lower seeds play so well.  I predicted some landslide first round matchups, and that’s been far from the case in every series so far.  Even in the lopsided series in terms of games won, the lower seeded teams have admirably battled against their heavily favored opponents.  We did manage to see one sweep so far (Boston over NY), but that series was very competitive until the Knicks could no longer sustain injuries to their key guys (Billups, Stoudemire).  Most experts deemed the top four seeds from each conference superior to the remaining field, but one wouldn’t have been able to tell that by watching the games so far.  In other words, nobody (including me) predicted an upset.  Now, it turns out of all eight first round matchups, HALF could end up in upsets (with Memphis, New Orleans, Portland, and Atlanta potentially winning).  I’m not saying that’s likely, but few thought those four teams would be in a position to pull off an upset. 

I’m going to go over my thoughts on each series so far, starting with the most intriguing (and surprising) ones.  I’ll assign each series into one of three categories:  1) Most surprising (likely upsets), 2) Somewhat surprising, and 3) About what we expected.

Category 1:  MOST SURPRISING/UPSETS BREWING

Memphis/San Antonio, Atlanta/Orlando

Memphis 3, San Antonio 1

Randolph has helped Memphis take control
of this series

This is, without a doubt, the most shocking series so far. Not only is Memphis up 3-1, but they absolutely annihilated the Spurs in Game 4 to take a commanding series lead.  Manu Ginobili may still not be 100% healthy, and this may be the beginning of the end for this particular Spurs core.  I, for one, thought Tim Duncan would turn back the clock and pick apart the Grizzlies.  Instead, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol – who, by the way, is clearly playing better than his brother Pau currently – are having their way in the paint.  If San Antonio goes on to become the second first-seeded team to lose in the 1^st round (in a best-of-7 format), you better believe team GM R.C. Buford will do a complete overhaul of this team.  Here’s the question:  who can you trade?   The San Antonio community would be furious if they trade Duncan, who is a Spurs icon and still has a couple more years of decent basketball left in the tank, so I don’t think they would give away THE Spurs legend.  Tony Parker has trade value, but he's still young and the team could be built around him (since good point guards are hard to come by).  My bold offseason prediction: Ginobili’s gone after this year. 

On to Memphis:  the most unsung hero of the series so far is Tony Allen.  Here is a guy who won a title with the Celtics three years ago, and now he is providing his veteran championship experience to guide this young Memphis team.  He is truly leading by example and exhibiting the effort needed to pull off an upset of this magnitude – gathering nearly every “50/50” loose ball, making timely baskets, and just showing a lot of poise in general.  Even when he’s on the bench, he’s constantly cheering on his teammates regardless of the score of the games. 

In the playoffs, young teams have a tendency to feel the pressure against veteran teams like San Antonio.  But they have truly shocked the world and taken complete control of the series, and have already proven to the world that they are not a true 8^th seed.  I could see the Spurs winning at home in Game 5 and potentially make a comeback.  However, only 8 teams have come back from a 3-1 deficit, but a veteran team like the Spurs can do it.  Given how badly Memphis has outplayed the Spurs, I think this next series is the more likely to see such a comeback..

Atlanta 3, Orlando 1

Howard's played well, but he's getting
virtually no help from his teammates

This turn of events can very well derail my playoff bracket, as I picked Orlando to edge Chicago in Round 2.  There’s a couple things I overlooked:  for one, they acquired HUGE upgrade over Mike Bibby at the trade deadline with Kirk Hinrich, whose defensive abilities are vastly underrated; he’s one of the big reasons why both Jameer Nelson and Gilbert Arenas have been wildly inconsistent. 

Atlanta’s strategy of single coverage on Dwight Howard has proven to be very effective.  This strategy itself shows how much better of a head coach Larry Drew is than Mike Woodson, who was fired after the Magic absolutely destroyed the Hawks by a combined 100+ points in a 4-game sweep.  In any case, Drew has thrown every one of his bigs at Dwight in a one-on-one battle, with Jason Collins being the most effective Howard defender.  On offense, Jamal Crawford and Al Horford have fully exploited the Magic’s awful pick-and-roll defense so far. 

Here’s why I don’t think it’s over:  for one, Hedo Turkoglu and his teammates can’t possibly play this poorly forever.  Also, despite the total no-show from everyone but Dwight Howard, every game has been relatively close so far.  Despite shooting an atrocious 2-23 from the three-point line, Orlando somehow still had a chance to win (even without Jason Richardson, who was suspended for his role in a scuffle with Hawks backup C Zaza Pachulia.  Interestingly enough, Joe Johnson has been as mediocre as he historically has against Orlando in the playoffs – but sixth man Jamal Crawford has been on fire during this series – leading the team in scoring in 3 out of the 4 games so far.  The fact that Atlanta can’t play much better than they have been, combined with the chance that the Magic are due for a somewhat decent game from anyone not named Dwight, leads me to believe they can extend this series.  I will be attending Game 5 tomorrow night in Orlando, where I expect the Magic to turn things around and win.  From there, it’s just a matter of pulling off one road win in Atlanta before having a chance to edge the Hawks in Game 7.  I don’t think they are as outmatched as the Spurs are with Memphis. 

More likely than not, however, Atlanta should keep this up and oust the Magic in one of the next two games.  After years of difficulty vs. the Howard-led Magic, it appears that Larry Drew and the Hawks have finally concocted a good strategy to defeat them.  If Crawford stays hot and Turkoglu continues to struggle, the Hawks should pull off an upset.

Category 2:  MILDLY UNEXPECTED

Boston/NY, LA/New Orleans, OKC/Denver

Boston 4, New York 0

Anthony and the Knicks fell apart in Games 3 and 4

I predicted that the Celtics would have a relatively easy time with the Knicks.  What I didn’t expect was that the Celtics would be quite fortunate to win the first two games of the series, which both came down to the wire.  But after the first two fiercely competitive games in which Stoudemire and Billups suffered injuries, the Knicks basically just packed it in during Games 3 and 4.  A tremendous outburst from Carmelo Anthony (42 pts, 17 rebs) kept the Knicks within striking distance in Game 2, but he was unable to sustain his level of play during the games at MSG.  Having said that, it was really about Boston playing better after struggling in the first two games.  Rajon Rondo looks like he’s back to his early-season form, and Pierce and Allen have finally regained their touch from the perimeter. 

Those who are Knicks fans shouldn’t be too bummed about this.  For one, it’s nice to finally play in games that matter – and I’m sure most Knicks fans are thankful for that.  If the team can continue to build around Stoudemire and Anthony, there is hope for them.  However, they still need to address the defensive liability of those two.  I also have my doubts as to whether Mike D’Antoni’s system can go as far as winning a title.  But the team has definitely taken a turn for the better, and should be relevant again for the next few years.  You gotta give huge props to GM Donnie Walsh for turning this around after Scott Layden and Isiah Thomas did their best to destroy the franchise.  Before Walsh took over, I thought this team was doomed for decades of futility.

With the way the Celtics closed out the series, I can’t wait for the Boston-Miami 2^nd Round matchup; that will be by far the most intriguing series in the next round.  

Los Angeles 2, New Orleans 2

 The only reason why I didn’t put this in Category 1 is that I think this Laker team is coasting in this series.  I don’t mean to take anything away from the Hornets, who have been brilliant – especially Chris Paul.  After guys like Derrick Rose, Rajon Rondo, and Deron Williams have emerged as the NBA’s best point guards this season, Paul kind of got overshadowed.  After completely torching the Lakers in two games so far, including a dominant triple-double performance in Game 4, he has immediately put himself back in the running as the league’s best floor general.

Nobody on LA has been able to contain CP3 this series

Obviously, Chris Paul is the biggest reason for the Hornets’ victories against the defending champs.  But I have to give credit to at least one of his teammates – Carl Landry.  Many Hornets fans criticized the midseason trade of Marcus Thornton to Sacramento in exchange for Carl Landry, given Thornton’s frequent scoring outbursts as a member of the Kings thereafter.  But in this series, Landry has fully demonstrated his value facing the league’s best frontcourt tandem of Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol.  What he lacks in size when matched up with them, he makes up for with pure defensive effort.  He has filled the void for the injured David West splendidly, and he should be getting more credit for the Hornets relative success (and Gasol’s struggles) thus far. 

As for the Lakers, their effort has been erratic.  Pau Gasol has been inconsistent, perhaps only partly due to Landry’s defense.  With Kobe ailing with a sprained ankle (an injury I’m sure he will play through), the Hornets are two more superhuman CP3 performances away from pulling off a stunning upset.  Sixth man of the Year winner Lamar Odom had an awful Game 4, along with the rest of LA’s bench.  Still, I think the Lakers will wake up and dominate Game 5 at home, perhaps with a better sense of urgency to close out this series.  I expect Phil Jackson to come up with ways to somewhat contain CP3 (or at least his teammates), and to ready his team to face the winner of Dallas and Portland.

Oklahoma City 3, Denver 1

While most did expect the Thunder to eventually figure out this scrappy Denver team and advance, nobody anticipated such a lopsided outcome.  It even took a career playoff high 41 points from Kevin Durant to edge Denver in Game 1.  Since then, however, it’s been basically all OKC.  Denver managed to avoid a sweep by winning Game 4 at home, but it appears that they’re on the verge of a summer vacation. 

My only theory for the series going by quicker than expected is that Denver’s lack of star power has finally caught up to them.  Their solid play since the Carmelo Anthony trade has been well-documented, but the playoffs are all about having stars that can get the job done in the heat of a playoff series.  With so much attention on Westbrook and Durant, opportunities arise for Serge Ibaka (who had a monster Game 3 performance – 22 pts/16 rebs) and the rest of the team.  Since Denver doesn’t have any such players that command double teams, it puts a lot of pressure on George Karl and the Nuggets to create scoring opportunities.  Without a true go-to scorer, the Nuggets will always have trouble closing games – especially against a team like OKC with two budding superstars. 

  

Ty Lawson and the Nuggets appear to be outmatched by the Thunder's talented team

With the Spurs fading, the Thunder appear to be a lock to go to the Western Conference Finals.  However, note that they lost 3 of 4 games against Memphis in the regular season.  I will reassess that matchup if Memphis goes on to beat the Spurs, but just note that by no means are the Thunder guaranteed to roll over the Grizzlies. 

Category 3:  JUST AS EXPECTED

Chicago/Indiana, Miami/Philadelphia, Dallas/Portland

Chicago 3, Indiana 1

D-Rose has been stellar as expected, but the Pacers
haven't rolled over by any means

As expected, Derrick Rose is having his way with the Pacers – averaging .  What we didn’t expect is how resilient of a team Indiana is.  Much like Denver, they have a deep and talented roster despite no true superstar.  Danny Granger is their best player, but no superstar (remember that he got benched in favor of the likes of Rudy Gay and Andre Iguodala during the World Championships last summer).  But Granger, Darren Collison, Paul George, Roy Hibbert, and Tyler Hansbrough are all holding their own against Chicago, minus allowing Rose to dominate the series.  If not for the furious rally in Game 1 and Rose’s crafty game-winner in Game 3, we could be looking at a potential 6 or 7 game series.  Guess the East is not nearly as weak at the bottom as everyone thought.

What’s particularly disturbing for the Bulls is the relatively poor play of Carlos Boozer.  Here’s a guy who has struggled against the elite power forwards of the NBA (e.g. Duncan, Gasol), and in this series he’s having trouble keeping up with Pacers F Tyler Hansbrough.  In Game 1, Hansbrough just had a field day against Boozer – going for 22 points on a barrage of jump shots.  Boozer’s a total defensive liability, which is why I thought even Orlando’s frontcourt would give him problems.  If things go the way they have been, he will be going up against Al Horford – another guy who can make perimeter jump shots and also beat other bigs off the dribble.  I would expect him to struggle then, as well, if Hansbrough is giving him problems.  Nevertheless, Chicago moves on and can probably exhale soon knowing they won’t go up against Dwight Howard. 

Miami 3, Philadelphia 1

Had Miami not inexplicably reverted back to going to LeBron James as their closer, this would have been an easy sweep.  I’m not sure if head coach Erik Spoelstra is trying to give LeBron some confidence by entrusting him with the ball during crunch time, but it’s safe to say that he, for whatever reason, never comes through in those situations.  When it comes to FG% of potential game-winning or game-tying baskets, Miami is dead last in the league.  Allow me to be even more redundant than I have been about this very subject:  LeBron HAS to be held accountable for Miami to hold such a miserable stat like that. We KNOW D-Wade is their best clutch player, so they shouldn’t divert from having him be the closer.

Miami's Big 3 are all having their way vs. Philly

Although Philadelphia has played well, they are clearly inferior in terms of talent.  Doug Collins, a Coach of the Year candidate, has turned this Sixer team around and turned them into a playoff team.  More importantly, last year’s 2^nd overall pick, Evan Turner, has finally been showing signs that he can play.  That, more than anything, has to be a relief for Sixers fans regardless of what happens in this series.  There’s about a 0.1% chance that they can upset Miami on Wednesday, but things are looking up for this squad. 

Dallas 3, Portland 2

This could be one of the very few chances Brandon Roy
will have left to be playing at this level

A very entertaining series, which was widely expected to be as such.  Of course, Dallas's Game 4 collapse reminded everyone of their repeated practice of showing 0 killer instinct when it comes to closing out opponents.  I was originally thinking that this particular team would not show those same qualities as the previous disappointing Mavs teams, but it appears that I’m wrong.  They may still close out this series, but NOBODY is scared of them.  Ask anybody who’s won a championship – they would verify this:  in the playoffs, you need to have a certain swagger or intimidation factor if you want to win.  The Celtics have that.  The Lakers have that.  The Heat have it.  Dallas?  Nobody was or is afraid of them.  Portland has further exposed their mental fragility, which will hurt them in the next series against LA. 

For Portland, it was awesome to see Brandon Roy have a great game.  Fresh off his complaints about not getting much playing time in the first three games, he responded with a fantastic performance and was the main driver behind Portland’s 23-point comeback win.  However, these kind of performances probably won’t be too consistent Without any MCLs in either knee, he will struggle with injuries throughout the rest of his career, unfortunately.  But if he’s able to play at a high level in spurts, that’s as much as the Blazers could hope for.  Against Dallas, they have a chance to make one last push and potentially take the next two games to win the series.  The Mavs are clearly the more talented team at the moment, but they will always be vulnerable without a killer instinct against a resilient team like the Blazers.  For now, I’ll stick with my original pick of Dallas in 7.

NBA Playoff Predictions Part III: NBA Conference Semifinals and Beyond

Every year, we see the same trend through the second round of the playoffs.  NBA haters, to this point, will scoff at the lack of upsets in the 1st round and spew off some hogwash about how boring the NBA playoffs are if all the top seeds advance as predicted.  The East, in particular, has such a large gap between the 4^th (Orlando) and 5^th (Atlanta) seeds on down, which is why no 1^st round series there will be all that interesting.

What the haters must understand, though, is that the uncompetitive games and matchups from the 1^st round are coming to an immediate halt starting in the 2^nd round and onwards.  From the 2nd Round on, all pretenders are weeded out and it's a battle of the contenders from then on.  At this point, outcomes become extremely hard to predict.  Regular season records between teams will mean virtually nothing to this point, especially with all the heavyweights involved.  And, in a 7-game series, NBA coaching staffs are able to put together scouting reports that are more detailed than you can imagine.  The margin for error for all these teams, to this point, will be minuscule. 

I’ll try to predict the 2^nd round on based on my 1^st round predictions, though do know that I will make these predictions again regardless after the 1^st round is over (especially if my 1^st round predictions are wrong).  I honestly don’t really know who’s going to win the title this year – it really is going to depend on who faces who going forward, since the fortune of teams will vary greatly based on matchups. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Bulls, 3-1

Prediction:  Magic win 4-2

I suspect I will be the minority in this prediction.  Hear me out:  these are one of those matchups that might be favorable for Orlando.  I still stand by the fact that Orlando got really bored of the regular season, especially Hedo Turkoglu.  Hedo WILL step up in the playoffs, and has always been very effective at running the Magic offense – especially in clutch situations.  They still have deadly shooters all over the court, even if JJ Redick is dealing with an injury.  I suspect Howard and Bass to give the Bulls frontcourt fits, especially Carlos Boozer. 

By the way, as I’m writing this, I’m watching Game 1 of the Bulls-Pacers.  Even if they didn’t accomplish the furious rally in Game 1, I fully expect the Bulls to win the series handily – though you have to take your hat off to Tyler Hansbrough and the Pacers for making this series interesting.  While I knew Boozer is an awful defender (and have mentioned that before), I didn’t expect Hansbrough to exploit him this much.  On offense, Boozer has had tremendous difficulty against the elite bigs of the NBA (see the last several Laker-Jazz playoff matchups and his awful performances against Pau Gasol).  Against a guy like Brandon Bass, I expect him to have the same difficulties.  Joakim Noah holds his own against most centers, but not Dwight Howard; Noah’s only 0-rebound game came in a 107-78 loss against Howard and the Magic earlier this season.  If the Bulls utilize their other bigs – Taj Gibson and Omer Asik – a bit more against the Magic’s formidable frontcourt, then they will fare better and may be able to win the series. 

For now, I’m predicting the Magic to utilize their deadly inside-outside game.  With Howard controlling the paint, Rose is going to have to take on a crazy load offensively and create scoring opportunities for his teammates.  The one guy who could screw this up for Orlando is Gilbert Arenas, who has somehow gotten worse as the season progressed.  If he is guarding Rose, he will get lit up just as bad – if not worse – as Boozer will by Howard and Bass.  Nevertheless, unless Rose has a monster performance for the ages (and I wouldn’t be surprised if he does), I think the Magic will find a way to hang on.  The Rose-led Bulls have never been past the 1^st Round, and I think their inexperience will catch up to them against the veteran Magic.  Chicago is a great team, but they aren’t quite there.  Yet.

(2) Miami Heat vs. (3) Boston Celtics

Season Series:  Celtics, 3-1

Prediction:  Heat win 4-3

These are two teams that have gone in opposite directions lately, though the Celtics proved last year that limping towards the finish of the regular season is not indicative of how they’ll perform in the playoffs.   Still, the loss of Perkins and Nate Robinson will catch up to them in this series.  If Shaq was healthy, I could see him giving the weak Miami frontcourt some problems.  But he’s not – he’s literally played 5 minutes since February 1^st.  The guy probably hasn’t done a full workout in a year, which is probably why he’s bound to sprain something if he exerts any energy whatsoever.   

Even with their shortcomings, the Celtics are still going to be a very tough out, and I anticipate this series going down to the wire.  If Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and KG log heavy minutes, they will keep the games close.  But I have no faith in their supporting cast to hold their own against Miami, not that the Heat’s role players are any better.  Overall, I think Miami’s improved over the course of the season and the superstar trio will overmatch Boston’s aging roster. 

WESTERN CONFERENCE SEMIFINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (4) Oklahoma City Thunder

Season Series:  Spurs, 3-0

Prediction:  Spurs win 4-3

OKC is a popular pick to win this series, especially given the fact that these two teams have gone in opposite directions since February.  The Thunder have gone 13-3 since acquiring Perkins (and not by coincidence, Ibaka’s improvement), while the Spurs have stumbled to the finish and barely held on to the 1 seed.  Many think they peaked too early, and are a popular pick to lose this series given Ginobili’s health issues.  Those are all valid arguments, but I am banking on Ginobili to regain his form and for Tim Duncan to take on a bigger load offensively.  They are the West’s version of the Celtics with regard to turning it on for the postseason.  Don’t forget that they were the 7^th seed last year and completely dismantled Dallas in their first round matchup, albeit that was the Mavericks we’re talking about.   The Thunder are much like the Bulls, in that they’re still a very young and talented team.  But inexperience may hurt them against a team like the Spurs.

I could very well be wrong, especially if Ginobili or any other Spur isn’t 100% healthy.  But I think people continue to dismiss the Spurs way too quickly, and they will shock the world even though this technically wouldn’t be an upset. 

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (3) Dallas Mavericks

Season Series:  Lakers, 2-1

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-3

A few weeks ago, I would have picked Dallas to steal this one from the Lakers.  This team, as I’ve mentioned before, is built to beat them.  Now, after seeing them lately, I have my doubts.  Unlike the Celtics, Lakers, or Spurs, I do think this team needs to be in a good groove heading into the playoffs and can’t just turn it on.  Assuming Dallas has a tough time with Portland, they may be too worn down against the well-rested Lakers (assuming they have an easy time with New Orleans), allowing Bynum, Matt Barnes, and the other less-than-100% Lakers to get some rest before facing the Mavericks.  I still think Dallas will give the Lakers some tough matchups, particularly with Nowitzki spreading the floor if he’s matched up with Gasol.  But Phil Jackson will find a way to get in the head of the Mavericks, which is probably not too hard for him to do. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(2) Miami Heat vs. (4) Orlando Magic

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

The two Floridian teams have experienced up-and-down seasons.  But after all their struggles, here they are in my version of the Conference Finals.  One can’t help but point out that Miami will have no answer whatsoever for Howard, who is bound to dominate the series.  However, in the end, Miami’s suffocating defense will overwhelm the Magic’s perimeter players.  Howard will get frustrated having to constantly help out his teammates that will get abused by Wade and James slashing their way to the rim, which will possibly lead to foul trouble on his part.  Over the course of the series, that will wear on Orlando.

WESTERN CONFERENCE FINALS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (2) Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-1

An OKC-LA conference finals matchup is what everyone wants to see.  After the Spurs ruin that possibility, LA is their worst possible matchup of any elite team in the playoff bracket.  I just can’t help but remember LA’s complete beatdown of the Spurs on March 6^th in San Antonio, where they completely manhandled the Spurs and led by as many as 32 points in that game.  Ultimately, I think that’s going to resemble the dynamics this series more so than any of their other regular season matchups.  As great as Duncan is, he will be worn down by Gasol and Bynum in the post.  Ron Artest will probably get matched up against Ginobili, who tends to struggle against physical defenders.  This leaves Kobe on Jefferson, making the Spurs’ only matchup advantage at the point guard position (Parker on Fisher). 

NBA FINALS

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Season Series:  Heat won 2-0

Prediction:  Heat win 4-2

This is the dream matchup for David Stern and the NBA.  The presence of Bryant, Wade, and James will make for TV ratings galore.  As I’ve written before, Miami matches up better with this Laker team than anybody in the league.  With Miami having home court, they should be able to impose their style of play on the Lakers.  With their stifling defense, Wade and James don’t both have to play well.  If Wade continues to give Kobe problems on both ends of the floor, that will allow LeBron to focus his energy on offense and continue to be a Laker killer.  Of all perimeter superstars, James is bothered the least by Artest’s physical defense.  Also, while Gasol has a matchup advantage on Chris Bosh, Bosh can space the floor with his consistent 17-18 foot jump shot and keep Gasol honest (i.e. away from the paint on defense), as can Zydrunas Ilgauskas against Andrew Bynum. 

Miami is the one team that you can say is truly not afraid of the Lakers, and I think this would show in the playoffs.  The only question is whether Miami can get there – I could see them having trouble against the Bulls if Orlando fails to eliminate them.  But the playoffs are about matchups (sick of me saying that yet?), and Miami should be able to capitalize on their offseason splash of bringing their dynamic trio together.

This would be a storybook ending to what has been a true roller coaster ride.  It appears the team finally figured out the right formula for winning:  let LeBron run the show for the first 3 quarters, and then have Wade be the closer.  They've also managed to get Bosh more involved, as his numbers have picked up as the season progressed. For them, it would be very impressive to win a title in their first year under incredible scrutiny since the Big 3 announced their "Decision."  Winning a title would be the only way that would make their welcome party look like a good idea.

Again, nobody is ever 100% correct in predicting every playoff series, so I will reassess these predictions as each round progresses.  

NBA Playoff Predictions Part II: Western Conference First Round

Although I’m not calling any upsets in either conference, it doesn’t mean the first round won’t be worth watching.  The 1^st round usually serves as a good measuring stick for teams to get a feel for each other and, with 7-game series matchups, weeds out the pretenders.  I predicted that no Eastern 1^st round series will go past 5 games, but I assure you that won’t be the case in the much deeper Western Conference.

Anyway, let’s get on with it:

WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFFS – FIRST ROUND PREDICTIONS

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Spurs win 4-2

This will be a much more competitive series than people may think.  If Rudy Gay was healthy, I would think this series would go the full 7 games.  But it will still go 6 because Memphis has become a very good and underrated team.  Even without Gay, they have athleticism at all positions on the court.  Acquiring Shane Battier was huge for their postseason run, and he was a big reason why they held off Houston in their bid for the 8^th seed.  Marc Gasol has improved noticeably and has displayed a wide array of skills in the low post – much like his brother – and will be a handful down low along with Zach Randolph.   

The Spurs are, once again, dealing with injuries as Manu Ginobili hyper extended his elbow during the regular season finale last night.  Still, they have Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and a much improved (from last year) Richard Jefferson.  They play a different brand of ball than they did in years past, simply because their two stars (Duncan, Ginobili) are getting older and the offense hasn’t run through them as much.  Bottom line:  Popovich is an all-time great coach, Duncan is an all-time great player, and I can’t see them losing in the first round – not as a 7 seed (like they were last year), and especially not as a 1 seed.  Not this year, anyway.  How far can they go?  I still haven’t decided whether they can beat Oklahoma City; I have to see if they can stay healthy through this series.  You better believe that Duncan will step up during the playoffs, despite averaging career lows in several stat categories during the regular season.

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets

Season Series:  Los Angeles, 4-0

Prediction:  Lakers win 4-0

This is, in all likelihood, going to be the most uncompetitive first round matchup in the West.  On any given night during the first round, if there’s too many 1^st round games on to nationally televise all of them, this will be the game that should get pushed to NBA TV while the others would be on ESPN or TNT.

Without David West, the Hornets has no low post options.  Okafor is an above average rebounder and low-post defender/shot blocker, but has a very limited offensive skill set (side note:  remember when people thought Orlando should have drafted him over Dwight in 2004?  Considering how much as people criticize Howard’s offense, imagine the criticism Okafor would have received had he been drafted 1^st overall).  It will be interesting to see whether Chris Paul, who has clearly lost some of his explosiveness through a few injuries, can still carry this team in the playoff atmosphere.  Is he motivated enough, or is he thinking about playing for MJ and the Bobcats? 

 Only a handful of teams can beat the Lakers, and the Hornets are far from being one of them.  The big question mark for the Lakers going forward, as usual, is Andrew Bynum’s health.  Either way, Bryant and Gasol are in for putting up monster numbers throughout the series – the Hornets have no answers for either of them.  The Lakers lost 5 straight prior to the end of the season, but they knew they would have the 1^st round of the playoffs to turn the switch back on.  If I were to bet on the one series that would be the most lopsided in terms of average margin of victories, this would be the matchup I would bet on.  Going forward, I don’t see why Chris Paul would be motivated at all to play for this team next year.  His situation next year and the subsequent drama will mirror that of Carmelo Anthony’s last year. 

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers

Season Series:  Tied 2-2

Prediction:  Mavs win 4-3

This is by far the most popular pick for an upset in this year’s playoffs.  LaMarcus Aldridge has emerged as a great 1^st option for the Blazers, and the main reason why they’ve been able to sustain the degraded health of former alpha dog Brandon Roy.  Add Gerald Wallace (aka ‘Crash’) to the mix at the trade deadline and you have your hands full playing the Blazers. 

The Mavs’ mental fragility has been well-documented, and Portland is a less-than-ideal first round opponent for them.  However, in the end, I think Dallas will find a way to edge this team out.  If Brandon Roy is unable to play for any stretch, the team might have trouble putting points on the board.  Dallas still has a well-balanced team on both ends of the floor, and Dirk and Terry have proven their ability to hit clutch shots.  Tyson Chandler and Shawn Marion have evolved into great compliments to Nowitzki, and they should be able to make things difficult for Aldridge in the paint. 

Portland hasn’t won a playoff series since 2000, when they had an epic collapse against the Lakers after being up double digits in the 4^th quarter of Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals.  Paul Allen has done his best to clean up the team’s image and revamp this team into a contender.  But with their current injury curse, I still think something will go against them in the end.  Even against Dallas. 

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets

Season Series:  OKC, 3-1

Prediction:  Thunder win 4-2

Behind the Dallas-Portland matchup, this may be the most intriguing matchup in the playoffs.  Both teams made big shakeups around the trade deadline, and both have played very well since.  Nobody expected Denver to be in this position, which further proves that George Karl can coach players who don’t have big egos and readily buy into his system.  New acquisitions Raymond Felton, Danilo Gallinari, and Wilson Chandler have fit in seamlessly, creating a new era of better ball movement and teamwork than the previous squad with Melo being the go-to scorer. 

That being said, the Thunder have become an elite contender with Kendrick Perkins in the middle.  Since the trade, Serge Ibaka moved to the starting 4 position and has been extremely effective on both ends of the court.  Before the trade – with Jeff Green at the 4 and Krstic/Ibaka at the 5 – the Thunder were very vulnerable and thin at the front line.  While their scoring goes down a bit without Green, they become a much tougher team with Perkins at the 5 and Ibaka at the 4.  I haven’t even mentioned the two best players in this series – Durant and Westbrook.  As good as Denver has been lately, they will be overmatched by the two superstars in a 7-game series. 

Since I didn't pick any upsets, I'll roughly estimate the likelihood for any upsets happening.  Here's what I perceive to be the odds for upsets (by series), barring unforeseen injuries:

Indiana over Chicago – 0%

Philadelphia over Miami – 0%

New York over Boston – 20%

Atlanta over Orlando – 25%

Memphis over San Antonio – 20%

New Orleans over Los Angeles – 0%

Portland over Dallas – 45%

Denver over Oklahoma City – 35%

Feel free to berate me if any of my predictions are wrong.  In the meantime, let the playoffs begin! 

NBA Playoff Predictions Part I: East 1st Round

It’s playoff time!  We have 4 months of high-level, intense, and must-see basketball that will wash away the disgusting taste of this year’s March Madness out of everyone’s mouth.  Contrary to popular opinion, it really is hard to predict what will happen in this year’s playoffs.  If the Lakers, Celtics, or Heat win this year, you’ll hear everyone say, “I knew that was gonna happen.”  But you don’t.  Last year, some thought Boston was going to lose in the first round, including die-hard Celtic fan Bill Simmons.  Instead, they had the champion Lakers on the ropes until late in the 4^th quarter of Game 7.  This year, four Eastern Conference teams have a legitimate chance to take the title, as do 3 Western teams (in my opinion, of course). 

For now, I will just go over the 1^st round matchups of the Eastern Conference that are already established. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS – ROUND 1

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers

Season Series: Bulls won 3-1

Prediction:  Chicago, 4-0

Let’s get this one out of the way.  This will be by far the most lopsided series of the playoffs, though there have been underdogs in the past that have made 1^st round series more interesting than most predicted.  Be that as it may, Indiana has absolutely no answer for Derrick Rose.  Not many teams do, but most playoff teams have better defensive weapons than Darren Collison and TJ Ford.  Interestingly, though, Indiana’s lone victory during the regular season vs Chicago included a 42 point outburst by D-Rose.  So, if Indiana manages to let Rose (who only had 2 assists that game) be a scorer and clamps down on the rest of his teammates, they may steal a game.  They have the talent to do that, especially since they have rebounding machine Jeff Foster combating with Noah and Boozer.  But I don’t see them making it any more interesting than that. 

(2) Miami Heat vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers

Season Series:  Heat won 3-0

Prediction:  Miami, 4-1

More intriguing of a matchup than the Chi-Ind series, but still not all that intriguing.  Miami swept the regular season series, and two of those games took place before December – back when the Heat were struggling and many thought they were a team in turmoil.  Since then, then went on to win 10 straight on the road in December, had an up-and-down roller coaster-type season while the Big Three tried to develop some cohesion amongst themselves; they’ve only gotten better as a team since then, so Philly will have their hands full.  The Sixers have a very athletic team that could give the old guys on Miami (Bibby, Ilgauskas, Howard, House, etc.) some problems, and Andre Iguodala  has the talent to somewhat contain either LeBron or D-Wade.  Doug Collins and his squad may make things interesting for a game or two, but in the end, Miami shouldn’t have any trouble.

One question about the Heat, though:  where is Udonis Haslem?  Considering all the annoying news bits you hear about this team, the team is sure quiet about him.  Is he anywhere close to returning?  When he tore a ligament in his foot early in the season, he was expected to return sometime in April.  If Miami wants to contend for a title, they’ll need to get him healthy.  It’s not like Haslem is a guy that needs to play multiple games to get in a groove in order to help his team; his effectiveness lies in hustle plays and defense.  Those instincts will return very quickly once he returns. 

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks

Season Series:  Celtics won 3-0

Prediction:  Boston, 4-1

This is by far the most interesting series of the Eastern Conference on paper so far, but only because of the presence of big-name players on big-name teams.  Without beating around the bush, I don’t think the Knicks can win more than a game.  Each game might be competitive for about 3 and ½ quarters, but I don’t think the Knicks are poised enough to close out a game against the veteran savvy of the Celtics.  Say what you want about Boston and how they’re not as good as last year – I’ve been as critical of them as anybody of their awful play since the Perkins trade.  But as I mentioned earlier, nobody thought they were going to be any good last year, either.  In the end, the Big 4 will turn it on and, in a 7-game series, will know how to get in the heads of Amare and Melo, players with volatile personalities.

All three regular season games between these teams were competitive, but the Celtics managed to get the upper hand in the 4^th quarters of each of those games.  I know regular season games usually don’t matter, but I don’t see that trend changing for this particular matchup.

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Season Series:  Hawks won 3-1

Prediction:  Orlando, 4-1

See?  I don’t always go by who wins the regular season matchups.  Anyway, let’s face facts:  the Magic aren’t as good as they were last year.  But neither are the Hawks.  In this series, they’ll still have trouble matching up with Dwight Howard.   These teams only matched up once since the trade that brought Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas to Orlando, so this regular season matchups have to be taken with a grain of salt. 

A big x-factor in this series is Joe Johnson.  For some reason, he hasn’t been able to come through for this team in the playoffs.  Why Atlanta decided to pay him the most money out of ANY big-name free agent last summer is completely beyond me (and everybody else, including Atlanta fans).  I’ve seen him as a matchup nightmare for most teams in the league, especially Boston.  If the Hawks somehow got matched up with Boston last year, I honestly think they would have won.  But they didn’t – unfortunately, they got obliterated by Orlando and lost each game by an average of 20+ points.  I have said this before and I’ll continue to reiterate this:  playoffs are ALL about matchups.  Just because the Celtics won the East last year, it doesn’t mean they could beat every team in the East; they just happened to match up with the teams they were suited to beat. 

And since the playoffs are about matchups, I do think the Magic, among the other 3 teams in the top 4, have a legitimate chance to win the title.  Although they are somewhat limping here at season’s end, I still stand by the theory that they’re just bored of the regular season; once they warm up against Atlanta in the playoffs, they’ll have a GREAT chance of surprising everyone and make the Finals.  They are a team better suited for the playoff grind as long as Dwight’s anchoring the middle.  As I’ve said before, they will sorely miss Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus – but not Vince Carter.  The one team I can’t see them beating is the Lakers.  But I’ll get to that later.  In this series, I don’t see any differences in the dynamics of this matchup to that of last year.   

I’ll predict the Western Conference matchups (and subsequent rounds) as soon as the seedings are finalized after tonight’s regular season finale.  

The Tragedy of Vince Carter

Does anyone ever stop and think, "What the heck happened to Vince Carter?!"

In high school, everyone is forced to read painful Shakespearean literature, which consisted mostly of tragedies.  The majority –if not all – of those novels had plots that made absolutely no sense to me, but they made enough sense for me to know that the protagonists in the stories were tragic figures.  Such is the basketball career of Vince Carter – a tragic figure whose story also doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.  At one point, he was the undisputed heir to MJ himself – a voluminously gifted high flyer and dynamic scorer who rightfully earned the nickname ‘Half-Man, Half-Amazing.’  After a few promising seasons, a combination of effort (or lack thereof), a huge fall from popularity, and to some extent, a myriad of injuries, all completely derailed his career.  Today, he finds himself on the butt end of endless jokes, a lot of them resulting in modified nicknames like ‘Half-Man, Half-A-Season’ (says Charles Barkley) or ‘Half-Man, Half-Amazingly Washed Up’ (Bill Simmons).    After being one of the most popular players in the league, he gained a reputation that he was never able to shed – as a disappointing and underachieving player who never lived up to his hype for any logical reason.  

Players and fans were in awe of Vince Carter's
jaw-dropping athleticism

Carter’s hoops career started out glamorous, as he was selected with the 5^th overall pick out of UNC in the 1998 NBA Draft by Toronto (after being swapped for 4^th overall pick Antawn Jamison, a fellow UNC draftee).  In his first few seasons in the NBA, his freakish athleticism and explosiveness were unparalleled.  In the 1999-00 season, Vince’s popularity skyrocketed – especially after arguably the greatest Slam Dunk competition performance in the history of the contest.  He even topped that with the most insane in-game dunk ever, literally jumping over 7’2” Frederic Weis of France to throw one down.  NOBODY was ever able to do something like that in a game, and nobody ever will.  Despite playing for a Canadian franchise, Vince became immensely popular – voted a starter in 8 straight All-Star games – and continued to gain publicity in the NBA.    

2000-01 was really Carter’s best season, where he averaged a career-best 27.6 points per game on 46% shooting.  He also had his first taste for playoff success, leading the Raptors to a decisive 7^th game in the Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. Allen Iverson and the 76ers (the eventual Eastern Conference Champs that year).  In that series, Iverson and Carter exchanged offensive explosions, including a 54-point total by Iverson in Game 2 followed by Carter’s 50 in Game 3.  Game 7 went down to the wire, with Carter having an opportunity to win the game for Toronto on a fadeaway at the buzzer.  He missed, but it was hard to criticize him at the time – the Raptors were considered a heavy underdog and really gave the Sixers a run for their money.   

Carter’s first critics came when he opted to attend his UNC graduation the same morning of that Game 7 vs. Philly.  Many thought he took a big risk by traveling to Philadelphia from his graduation on game day.  However, other folks (myself included) found this to be admirable, so long as he didn’t play poorly in Game 7 (which he didn’t).  Would he have played any better had he not attended his graduation?  I have my doubts.  Although this action was defensible, it would only lead to a series of questions about his commitment to basketball and desire to improve in general.  

For the time being, there was a majority of enormous positive spotlight on VC.  Because of his success and belief that the Raptors would continue to build a contender around him, Carter re-signed with the Raptors that following offseason for 6 years and $94 million. The front office also spent $140 million to re-sign other key role players that were instrumental in their playoff run, including Antonio Davis, Alvin Williams, and Jerome Williams (aka the Junk Yard Dog).  Convinced that management was committed to build a winning product, Carter accepted the contract extension.  With things looking up for both Carter and the team, the sky was the limit for VC.  Or so we thought..

Much like his vertical, Vince's career potential was sky-high

Carter found new life on the Nets -
that is, for a little while

Questions about Vince’s commitment surfaced following his underwhelming performance in the next few seasons.  He was plagued by injury in the 2001-02 season, developing “jumper’s knee” in his left knee.  Adding to his frustration was his increasing loss of faith to team management, as they failed to acquire any other star players or improve the team during his tenure.  Following the frequent disagreements with team management and then-new head coach Sam Mitchell, Carter was traded to New Jersey (for 20 cents on the dollar, by the way).  After the trade, the initial decline in his popularity began.  In an interview with TNT’s John Thompson, he said something that would forever tarnish his reputation north of the border – when asked if he pushed himself as hard as he could with the Raptors, Carter replied “In years past, no.  I was fortunate to have the talent. You get spoiled when you're able to do a lot of things. You see that you don't have to work at it.”  That comment, taken somewhat out of context, was widely regarded in Canada as Carter’s admission for quitting on the Raptors and forcing his way out of town.  To this day, Raptors fans boo him mercilessly whenever he plays against his former team in Toronto.  Even Stan Van Gundy joked about this when Carter was booed as a member of Orlando, 5 years removed from his Toronto days: "That's a long time to hold a grudge."

The trade to New Jersey and the chance to team up with with future Hall of Fame point guard Jason Kidd would rejuvenate Carter’s career.  Following his last (and worst) season with Toronto – in which he only played 20 games and averaged a career-low 15.9 points per game on 41% shooting – Carter bounced back to All-Star form and scored 27.5 ppg (0.1 shy of his 2000-01 scoring average).  He and Kidd took the Nets into the playoffs for their first three consecutive years as teammates.  Carter appeared to regain his form, showing flashes of his old original athletic self along the way.  He and Kidd formed one of the NBA’s best backcourts, and they were considered legitimate championship contenders. 

Carter has yet to come through on his hunt for a title

Unfortunately, Carter’s performance would only tail off from there.  After the team failed to advance past the 2^nd round of the playoffs and continued to disappoint, Nets management decided to break up the team by trading Kidd to Dallas in the middle of the 2007-08 season.  At this stage in his career, Vince could not carry a mediocre team anymore and failed to make the playoffs in the following two seasons.  Even when he got traded to Orlando in 2009, he turned out to be a huge disappointment despite popular belief that he would play better on a legitimate contender - especially with a dominant center in Dwight Howard (more on that later).  I also thought playing for Orlando would rejuvenate his career, as he would be comfortable near his hometown (Daytona Beach, FL) and was approaching a contract year – two key motivators for any player.  Well, I was wrong.   Carter failed to fulfill the go-to scorer role that the Magic hoped for in acquiring him from New Jersey.  I still remember last season, where he shot 28%from the field in the month of January 2010.  Earlier this season, Magic GM Otis Smith got fed up of him and sent him away to Phoenix.  Now, he often finds himself to be a fourth or fifth option on offense – and lately has been sitting out entire 4^th quarters of games in favor of Mickael Pietrus, Grant Hill, or Jared Dudley. 

Now, this last paragraph you just read is the part of Vince’s story that makes no sense to me at all.  How did he fall this far from the top?  You could justify his waning years in Toronto and chalk that up to injuries and disagreements with management.  Since then, there’s been no real connective tissue that explains his basketball demise.  Seriously, what the heck happened to him?  You could argue that Vince’s initial injuries played a huge role in his overall downfall, as was the case with many hopefuls like Grant Hill, Penny Hardaway, and his cousin Tracy McGrady.  But Carter’s career downfall, more than that of any of those players, can be pinpointed more so to chronic underachieving and questionable dedication than any injuries.  

Unlike VC, Kobe never shied away from
getting in the face of his opponents

There are some other theories for his underachievement, aside from injuries and general aging.  Charles Barkley thought he was too nice of a guy to become a superstar.  In some respects, this was a good thing:  despite his immense talent, he was one of the most humble stars in the league.  When Michael Jordan was selected – in his final season – to the 2003 All-Star reserves, Carter relinquished his starting spot to Jordan (although he initially indicated he wouldn’t when asked about that possibility).  Off the court, Carter’s community service has been stellar.  He frequently donates to his high school, Mainland, as well as a foundation he started called “The Embassy of Hope.”  Nevertheless, Barkley’s main point is that he never had the “mean streak” necessary for most to become an elite player.  This ties in to his overall lack of motivation.  Most of the great superstars over the years – Bird, Magic, Dr. J, MJ, Shaq, Kobe, etc – always found ways to motivate themselves.  Whether they would trash talk with opponents or get in fight with their teammates to motivate them, they played with an edge.  At one point, Kobe was one of the most hated players in the NBA.  Think that didn’t fuel him?  Think the other superstars weren’t good at taking their anger out on the court in a positive manner (by the way, the jury is still out as to whether LeBron will correctly harness the hatred towards him)?  You never got that same killer-instinct vibe from Vince as you did with those superstars. 

Another theory is tied to problems with his family – namely his younger brother, Christopher Allen Carter.  While Vince is a role model off the court, Chris did not exactly stay out of trouble.  You never know how much family problems can affect the performance of players – it’s a variable on which we, in the NBA fan base, have virtually no insight.  On the other hand, many superstar players face off-court adversity throughout the course of their careers.  The difference between them and Carter is that they harness their off-court trouble, too, for further motivation.  Following Jordan’s initial loss of desire to play basketball after his father passed away, he came back to the league with a vengeance and flat-out DOMINATED the NBA and won 3 more championships.  When everyone gave Kobe a hard time about his sexual assault trial in Colorado, he would have some of the best games of his career – sometimes on the same day as court appearances.  By no means am I saying Vince is a bad guy by letting his family problems affect him; I’m only pointing out that the adversity of some players negatively affect their performance more so than others. Carter was always just wired differently, from a mental and emotional standpoint, than other superstars.

Jordan was wired in a way that he could harness all his emotions - including the
trauma from the murder of his father - and win multiple championships

Carter shot a whole lot of ill-advised jumpers
throughout his career

His personality and upbringing aside, there are legitimate faults of Vince on the basketball court.  In terms of his play, he always had the physical gifts to be a fantastic all-around player.  But he could never put an end to the criticism of his game that the basketball gurus pointed out.  For one, he was never a top-notch defender.  This goes back to his complacency as a player and the aforementioned quote to John Thompson – where he doesn’t see a need to put in effort to guard players, most of who weren’t nearly as talented.  His offensive game has been equally baffling.  The one thing I could never understand is why he constantly falls in love with his jump shot.  Carter is an extremely streaky shooter, so you often see him throw up a ton of shots when he thinks he’s feeling it.  This draws the bulk of his criticism:  he’s tremendously gifted at driving to the basket, and his team has great success when he tenaciously drives to the rim.  In that situation, many positive things can happen: he either finishes at the basket, draws fouls, or creates plays for his teammates.  Good things happen when he drives to the basket, yet he often finds himself settling for jump shots.  The only part of his decision making that I don’t criticize is his passing; of all areas of his game that people tend to scrutinize, he sure is an underrated passer.  Carter never made the most of his abilities, and it seemed to be due more to his mental mistakes than physical wear and tear. 

The other main problem with Vince has been his reputation in the clutch.  The thing that’s haunted him the most is that he never seems to come through when games are on the line.  Sure, he’s hit a handful of game-tying or game-winning 40 foot bombs in relatively meaningless games.  But in crucial playoff games, Vince has never been very reliable – a theme that followed him ever since the aforementioned potential game-winner against Philly in 2001. Two incidents that come to mind are Carter’s inexplicable turnover in a pivotal Game 4 vs. Cleveland in 2007 (on top of a horrible 6-23 shooting night), as well as the two free throws he missed in the closing seconds of Game 2 vs. Boston in last year’s Eastern Conference Finals (which put the Magic in an insurmountable 0-2 hole before heading to Boston).   Both New Jersey and Orlando got fed up of his shortcomings and dumped him.  He was such a disappointment to the Magic that they concocted trade that sent him to Phoenix in exchange for Jason Richardson and Hedo Turkoglu – a trade that was essentially a huge admission of error for when Smith let Turkoglu sign with Toronto and acquired Vince Carter after a run to the NBA Finals in 2009, in hopes that Vince would provide late-game scoring against elite teams in the playoffs.

Since this last-second shot that he missed in Game 7 vs. Philly in the 2001
Conference Semifinals, Carter could never redeem himself in crunch time

Carter may not have lived up to the hype,
but at least he does his part in the community

Ultimately, Carter’s fall has been mostly mental.  Say what you want about his injuries, but the truth is that Carter’s mentality turned out not to be conducive to become a true NBA champion and legend.  Make no mistake:  when all is said and done, Vince will still have had great success in the NBA and has already established his legacy.  Few have ever displayed the array of athleticism and talent at his level while also carrying the demeanor of a humble and respectful role model.  At the same time, few can be considered bigger disappointments than Vince.  Allen Iverson can also be seen as a tragic figure, but he wasn’t blessed with all the physical attributes that Vince once had; in retrospect, Iverson really maximized his potential.  Vince is truly is one of the nicest guys in the league, which somewhat softens the blow of criticism from the overall NBA community for his letdown; he is well-liked among his teammates and peers, as well as fans everywhere outside of Toronto.  Whether it was by choice or by injuries, he just never maintained his once cream-of-the-crop stature - and lost the universal acknowledgement as a sure-fire Hall of Famer.